A credible military for the Philippines

During the Cold War the Philippines got the best military force in the South East Asia. After the Marcos Regime things slowly fell apart and slowly turns for the worst. Now, Philippines is unable to protect its maritime territories from its neighbor.

What kind of credible military force those the Philippines require to successfully patrol its maritime territories and make other nation think twice before trespassing it's borders?
 
You will need a military junta that will focus more on developing a potent economy that can support a growing military, combined with the indoctrination of the entire population towards admiration of the military. Basically, can the AFP play a role similar to the MidEast military that can topple governments not to their liking?
 
It was possible during the EDSA Revolution. Either Juan Ponce Enrile or Fidel V. Ramos could potentially alter the course this particular event, one of them could become the head-honcho of the interim Government. Ideally the Philippines should still have a liberal society, but not that liberal like the current form.

The AFP has a lot of area to cover. What type of ships should it have and how many would they be? Then we move to the military and airforce.
 
Perhaps the key is the military not being expanded to such a degree during the Cold War, and those funds released into the economy. The politicians would also need to address corruption and several rent seeking industries particularly in the import substitution sector.
 
Philippine military would probably same as the quantity and quality of the Japanese Defense forces if Philippines kept same economic difference between Japan since 1960s, Philippines being second largest economy in Asia after Japan.

Int OTL, the military level of Pakistan and Vietnam is sufficient to deter powers like India and China. Since smaller economies like Pakistan and Vietnam has been supporting that level of military for decades, Philippines will most likely can support the same level of Pakistan/Vietnam military.

The question for the Philippines has been always political will to support its military.
 
You will need a military junta that will focus more on developing a potent economy that can support a growing military, combined with the indoctrination of the entire population towards admiration of the military. Basically, can the AFP play a role similar to the MidEast military that can topple governments not to their liking?

But that's what happened, twice. Though it was at the urging both times of the Church and the Americans.

And it's not as if the Pakistanis or the Vietnamese are any less corrupt than the Philippines. Part of it I think is that we've always depended on the Americans if things actually got hairy - the main purpose of the AFP is to fight Communists and secessionists. Low-intensity warfare. It's not made to combat the Malaysians like that puto in Malacanang apparently wants.
 
Eh to me a credible Philippine military relies onvthem taking a damn bitter pill and properly aligning themselves with the us post independence. If the us crushes the commies then you free up troops to fight the Morros. This combined with standard US Cold War military and more importantly economic aid means that the Philippines is once more a player in SEA so long as they can keep the development going
 
The problem is that there is no credible threat to the country to warrant an aggressive expansion and funding to the military. Here the rebels have shitty arms, so the military is given less shittier arms to combat the rebels.

If Operation Merdeka could go through, the inclusion of Sabah into the territory would warrant a viable threat to the nation (via Malaysian revanchism, Sabah insurrectionists, etc) that enlarging and maintaining the military up to modern standards would be a necessity for the country's security.

And Philippines should retain the American bases in the Philippines. The bases would ensure that the PH is still a worthy military 'hard point', and possibly the islands would receive certain numbers of military hardware at low cost like what is happening with Japan and Korea.

All of the above requires that the Constitution (both after Marcos if he is toppled, or not) not be restrictive to foreign investment, the local big corporate companies (ruled by the same big families over and over) restricted, and national investment is spread across the country (not only to the Capital). That way, our economical standing during the early 60s to 70s would still be retained, giving us the incentive to pour surplus to the military if not have the budget focus on it.
 
Eh to me a credible Philippine military relies onvthem taking a damn bitter pill and properly aligning themselves with the us post independence. If the us crushes the commies then you free up troops to fight the Morros. This combined with standard US Cold War military and more importantly economic aid means that the Philippines is once more a player in SEA so long as they can keep the development going

The Moro Insurgency problem was not a problem before Marcos. The stupid exposing of Operation Merdeka led Marcos to order the Jabidah Massacre to cover up the expedition due to outcry and condemnation from the international community.
 
The Moro Insurgency problem was not a problem before Marcos. The stupid exposing of Operation Merdeka led Marcos to order the Jabidah Massacre to cover up the expedition due to outcry and condemnation from the international community.

Sure Marcos was terrible for the country but I've heard of attempts under even macsaysay to crack down on Muslim rebels though I haven't read that extensively. Also a Philippines economic miricsle is possible. It has everything going for it. Low wages English speakers a great port for shipping. Assuming you get a well developed economy and ties to the US you have both means and access the good military tech
 
How about we work with this? I did not write it.

Taken from http://www.istoryadista.com/2011/09/operation-merdeka-regaining-sabah.html

Alternate History

I have envisioned an alternate history of what might have been if the Jabidah massacre never happened and so the following essay is entirely fiction so please don't take it seriously. Its just my impression of the point of divergence wherein the territorial dispute went hot.

What if the Jabidah Massacre never happened and the operational phase of the secret mission went to effect? Attacking Malaysia at this time may have been the perfect opportunity to do it. According to Whitman, "Marcos could not have chosen a more auspicious time to try and reclaim Sabah. Malaysia was only a fledgling state at that point, made even more wobbly by the secession of Singapore in 1965, two years after its independence from Britain. Too, Malaysia was embroiled in a border dispute with powerful Indonesia. And there was the Philippines' Sabah claim to boot. It was all that Malaysia could do to prevent itself from coming apart at the seams."

Imagine, 200 Jabidah commandos onboard several motorized bancas reached their respective assignment in various parts of the Sabah coastline. Many of these commandos have infiltrated various towns in the region. By this time, they have already urged the locals to rise up against the Malaysian authorities. Many of these commandos even claimed that they are liberating them from the "oppressive" government.

The main invasion force was preparing in Zamboanga City for an amphibious assault in Sabah. The elements of the newly-formed Philippine Marine Expeditionary Force (PMEF) and the war-decorated PEFTOK (Philippine Expeditionary Force to Korea), now designated as PEFTOS (Philippine Expeditionary Force to Sabah), have started its voyage to the battle front. The PEFTOS is composed of the 10th Battalion Combat Team (Motorized), 20th Battalion Combat Team (Leaders), 19th Battalion Combat Team (Bloodhound), 14th Battalion Combat Team (Avengers) and 2nd Battalion Combat Team (Bulldogs). They are the same battle-hardened units that saw action in the three-year Korean conflict.

In reality, the Malaysians were also misinformed in the diplomatic front because Foreign Affairs Secretary Narciso Ramos relayed President Marcos' message to Malaysian Prime Minister Tunku Abdul Rahman that the so-called 'military activity' was only a joint-military exercise by the Philippine Navy and Philippine Marines. Secretary Ramos reiterated that there is no such "provocative actions" made. Even though the Philippines broke diplomatic relations with her neighbor in 1963, the goverment tried to persuade the Malaysians that they were not thinking of some sort of "treachery."

X-day for Operation Merdeka was scheduled on July 17, 1968.

On July 16, the Sabah issue came to a precipitous height as angry mobs roamed the cities of Kota Kinabalu, Sandakan, and several small towns throughout the region. Many of the people, mostly of Tausug and Sama descent, burned the flags of their Malaysian rulers as they welcomed the Jabidah commandos as liberators. Caught by this whirlwind of events, the Malaysian armed forces were still in the peninsula and by this time they knew that the invasion was imminent.

The following day, the newly-commissioned Garcia-class frigates from the US Navy began softening the landing points of the PMEF and PEFTOS. The bombardment was so severe that not a single Malaysian soldier came up to opposed the amphibious assault.

The Philippine forces eventually reached Kota Kinabalu in less than a week and eventually combined with the Jabidah commandos. The Malaysian forces from the peninsula were on-route but it was harassed by the Philippine Fleet off the coast of Sarawak. Meanwhile, in the Philippine-occupied Sabah, the celebration was premature because some hard-line militias ambushed some of the Philippine forces that were posted in the outlying towns.

Indonesia, which earlier lost an undeclared war against Malaysia in 1962 to 1966, decided to align with the Philippines because both of them have scored to settle. In a secret deal, both countries will aid each other in the event of a Malaysian attack. The following day, the Indonesian Navy made a daring attack on the Royal Malaysian Navy's dockyards in Lumut at Perak province. Undeterred, the RMN was able to send some of its troops to Sarawak to face the PMEF but little did they know that the Indonesian Army was on its way to attack them from the rear.

The British, Australian and New Zealand governments, who are Malaysia's allies, saw such conflict to go out of hand. They raise their protests over the joint Philippine-Indonesian agression over Malaysia. But these diplomatic uproar fell on deaf ears. The Americans were also concerned about the situation because it is already embroiled in the conflict in Vietnam and that it is not prepared to go to another conflict in the region. But the Americans are obligated to help to defend the Philippines as part of their 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and at the same time afraid to get into a conflict with its Cold War allies -- Great Britain, Australia and New Zealand. And so the Western governments have convened in Hawaii to discuss about the idea of not to support either of the belligerents. This decision means that there will be no active support given by the Americans to the Philippines and the British to the Malaysia. The war as to be fought between Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.

As the RMN attacked the Philippine-occupied Sabah, the IA attacked Sarawak on July 28, 1968. An effective rear-guard action by the RMA slowed down the Indonesia advance but effective pincer movement enabled the Indonesian armored division to punch through Malaysian lines and a crack Indonesian commando force managed to infiltrate into Sarawak under the cover of the thick rainforest of Kalimantan Timur. The bewildered RMN's supply lines were cut and on August 1, a joint Philippine-Indonesian force was paradropped into Bandar Seri Begawan that was aimed to breakout into multiple directions. The Brunei sultan Omar Ali Saifuddin allowed the troops to use his domain as their staging point as long as they will keep the peace in his land.

The Malaysians were in disarray as the Indonesian and Philippine troops were slowly converging from their positions and so on August 15, 1968, Malaysia surrendered. A peace treaty was signed in Cebu on September 9, 1968 with President Marcos, Indonesian leader Suharto and Malaysian Prime Minister Rahman. The Philippines annexed Sabah, Indonesia annexed southern Sarawak and northern Sarawak was subjected to sectors of occupation by both Philippine and Indonesian troops. As a reward for their support of the Philippine-Indonesian invasion force, Brunei was granted independence on September 10.
 
How about we work with this? I did not write it.

Taken from http://www.istoryadista.com/2011/09/operation-merdeka-regaining-sabah.html

The problem with that scenario is that ignores the fact the UK and her allies will act in defence of Malaysia. This was demonstrated conclusively six years earlier during confrontation with Indonesia. The Far East Strategic Reserve is a very capable force and comprehensively outclasses anything possessed by the Philippines and Indonesia at this time.

IMHO if the Philippines wants a stronger military then an incremental approach is better. At the start of the Cold War the Philippines concentrates on fighting the communist guerillas and to do so focuses on addressing the economic imbalances of the country. Corruption is eliminated to prevent it from acting as a recruiting tool for the Communists.

Focusing on counter insurgency operations means a greater level of training and professionalism is required. The government adopts policies that encourage internal procurement processes for weapons (local M-16 construction), uniforms and ultimately larger vehicles. In time a military industrial complex is constructed.

As part of a concerted effort to eliminate the Communists the Navy is prioritised with the Marine Corps to root out the insurgent threat from the archipelago. A ship building industry is prioritised to sustain the Navy and the Merchant Marine. This is a great industry to be in and one the Philippines can do very well in.

If you want an external threat that is frightening, let's have Indonesia become communist with an effective leader or even a bellicose Indonesian president talking about Pan - Malay unity and liberating Mindanao.

Alternatively Korea falls to communism in 1950 and the US looks at the Philippines as the fallback point for democracy within SE Asia if Japan is invaded. Feel free to use any of these as PODs.
 
As a reward for their support of the Philippine-Indonesian invasion force, Brunei was granted independence on September 10.
Did your POD somehow make Brunei a part of Malaysia before this? IOTL it was a British protectorate, because the Sultan wanted Britain's protection against [for example] Indonesian expansionism and/or Communist rebels.
And could any obligation by the Americans to help the Phlippines really have been invoked in a conflict where it was the Phlippines themselves who were the aggressors? I seriously doubt it: After all, they didn't help their NATO allies Britain and France over Suez a decade before this... More likely, in my opinion, the USA stays out of things itself but probably [however grudgingly] recognises the British/Antipodean right to help Malaysia defend itself as long as there's no attempt at Malaysian expansion beyond the de facto pre-war borders. Now, whether Britain actually could & would have done much there by that date, instead of continuing with its planned withdrawal from "east of Suez"... H'mmm...
 
Sure Marcos was terrible for the country but I've heard of attempts under even macsaysay to crack down on Muslim rebels though I haven't read that extensively. Also a Philippines economic miricsle is possible. It has everything going for it. Low wages English speakers a great port for shipping. Assuming you get a well developed economy and ties to the US you have both means and access the good military tech

Post WW2 Modern Moro rebellion only started during Marcos era because of the Sabah/Jabidah massacre issue. Magsaysay never had any Moro Rebel problems.

The problem with that scenario is that ignores the fact the UK and her allies will act in defence of Malaysia. This was demonstrated conclusively six years earlier during confrontation with Indonesia. The Far East Strategic Reserve is a very capable force and comprehensively outclasses anything possessed by the Philippines and Indonesia at this time.

IMHO if the Philippines wants a stronger military then an incremental approach is better. At the start of the Cold War the Philippines concentrates on fighting the communist guerillas and to do so focuses on addressing the economic imbalances of the country. Corruption is eliminated to prevent it from acting as a recruiting tool for the Communists.

Focusing on counter insurgency operations means a greater level of training and professionalism is required. The government adopts policies that encourage internal procurement processes for weapons (local M-16 construction), uniforms and ultimately larger vehicles. In time a military industrial complex is constructed.

As part of a concerted effort to eliminate the Communists the Navy is prioritised with the Marine Corps to root out the insurgent threat from the archipelago. A ship building industry is prioritised to sustain the Navy and the Merchant Marine. This is a great industry to be in and one the Philippines can do very well in.

If you want an external threat that is frightening, let's have Indonesia become communist with an effective leader or even a bellicose Indonesian president talking about Pan - Malay unity and liberating Mindanao.

Alternatively Korea falls to communism in 1950 and the US looks at the Philippines as the fallback point for democracy within SE Asia if Japan is invaded. Feel free to use any of these as PODs.

OTL Philippines had a modern army. It can best both Indonesia and Malaysia during this time period. Philippines had also access and acquired all the equipment Americans had. Philippines is the only ASEAN nation that can go toe to toe with the Brits on conventional warfare at this timeline. The only catch on this is that Philippines will only act upon the approval of USA on any military conflict.

Communist Insurgency in the Philippines Post World War 2 ended in 1954. But, Communism restarted again during the Marcos era.

Problem with Korean falling to communism is Philippines fought at that war and was very successful. Philippines losing at Korea would have butterflies for the Philippine military for Konfrontasi/Sabah.
 
OTL Philippines had a modern army. It can best both Indonesia and Malaysia during this time period. Philippines had also access and acquired all the equipment Americans had. Philippines is the only ASEAN nation that can go toe to toe with the Brits on conventional warfare at this timeline.

If we accept the premise that the Philippines has a military that is qualitatively superior to both the Malaysians and the Indonesians, which I don't, there are still large problems with seizing Sabah.

The first is the Philippine Navy at that time and to the present does not have the sealift required. They cannot move the number of soldiers needed to invade Sabah and they would be unable to supply them with sufficient supplies to be combat effective. One of the first missions for the Far Eastern Strategic Reserve in this scenario will be to interdict the Philippine supply lines and they will do so effectively.

Additionally, Philippine Air Force will have a hard time establishing air superiority over Sabah. The only possible method would be air to air refueling and even then the transit times involved would render their ability to effectively engage with their RAF / RAAF / RNZAF adversaries to a negligible result.

So even if the Philippine Army is able to land soldiers on Sabah that are qualitatively equal to the British Army and allies. They will not be able to sustain those elements, rendering them combat ineffective.
 

While the PH forces have more up-to-date hardware than any of the states in the region, I fully agree that it is nigh impossible for PH navy and air force to best the combined forces of Britain and allies.

However, I think the Mutual Defense Treaty has a loophole. The treaty basically says that any armed attack on either parties will be deemed as an attack on their sovereignty, and warrants the other party to come to its defense. Basically, in the story above, only the Philippines and Malaysia are at war. Correct me if I am wrong but, I think an attack by the British and its allies in support of Malaysia will be deemed as a separate attack on the Philippines, and thus warrants the US to come to its aid.
 
While the PH forces have more up-to-date hardware than any of the states in the region, I fully agree that it is nigh impossible for PH navy and air force to best the combined forces of Britain and allies.

However, I think the Mutual Defense Treaty has a loophole. The treaty basically says that any armed attack on either parties will be deemed as an attack on their sovereignty, and warrants the other party to come to its defense. Basically, in the story above, only the Philippines and Malaysia are at war. Correct me if I am wrong but, I think an attack by the British and its allies in support of Malaysia will be deemed as a separate attack on the Philippines, and thus warrants the US to come to its aid.

I doubt that the US would aid the Philippines against Britain and Co. The Philippines are clearly the aggressors here.
 
I doubt that the US would aid the Philippines against Britain and Co. The Philippines are clearly the aggressors here.

Nope, not necessarily. Philippines have CB with Sabah thru the Sultante of Sulu. USA pursued also the same course back then when Philippines was a colony of USA. Only way Philippines can justify moving to Brunei and Sarawak is if both request help to be liberated. OTL Brunei was having a revolt in this time period. Considering that majority of local population in Sabah back then were people of Sulu, Tausugs etc..

While the PH forces have more up-to-date hardware than any of the states in the region, I fully agree that it is nigh impossible for PH navy and air force to best the combined forces of Britain and allies.

However, I think the Mutual Defense Treaty has a loophole. The treaty basically says that any armed attack on either parties will be deemed as an attack on their sovereignty, and warrants the other party to come to its defense. Basically, in the story above, only the Philippines and Malaysia are at war. Correct me if I am wrong but, I think an attack by the British and its allies in support of Malaysia will be deemed as a separate attack on the Philippines, and thus warrants the US to come to its aid.

OTL Philippine Navy 1960s:
5 Destroyers
20-30 Submarines
10-20 Landing ships
2 Minesweepers
19 Patrol Craft
Other support ships ++
www.navy.mil.ph, navsource.org

between 1963 and 1966 there were up to 80 ships from the Royal Navy, Royal Australian Navy, Royal Malay Navy and Royal New Zealand Navy. Most of these were patrol craft, minesweepers, frigates and destroyers patrolling the coast-line to intercept Indonesian insurgents.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indonesia–Malaysia_confrontation

OTL Philippine Air Force 1960s:
30 F5s, 35 F-8, 70 f-86, 103 P-51, other aircraft++, helicopters++
www.paf.mil.ph

Still trying to findout total strength of Commonwealth forces at Konfrontasi.
 
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