Speaking of which, with rearmament proceeding, how would the military doctrine of the Wehrmacht (especially the Luftwaffe and the Reichsmarine) differ from OTL, especially with the differing priorities the Vorbeck regime has from OTL’s Nazis?
8mm to the Left: If Hitler Died in 1923
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I don't know how, but somehow you always manage to find the questions which I can't get into too much without spoiling a major arc of the story.
Current German military doctrine is based around what they learned in the Great War, meaning it works but is a but outdated. Tanks are being experimented with but there hasn't been much practical application of new technologies to really shape the doctrine.
However, events will arise which will influence this and which will cause them to have a big shift in focus
I imagine alot of the theory that was applied OTL (actung Panzer for instance) will still exist but lacking Hitler's maniacal goal of world domination plans like case yellow won't be made (at least as anything other than a precaution). Also unlike under Hitler I imagine "Don't fight a war on two fronts," will actually be remembered especially as even with one front functionally self destructing the pressures of that fight not only broke the army but ensured Germany ran out of time before starvation became an issue.
Beyond that probably an attempt to build a balanced force actually capable of defence is more likely this time (the OTL Heer really wasn't much good dealing with being attacked rather than doing the attacking). Also if Goering's not (directly) in charge of the airforce there might be some changes there. Not sure what though, although if the war holds off long enough it might be recognised light bombers like the Stuka are unable to survive in a contested airspace (OTL Germany got lucky until England then Stuka's died) and fighter powerplants are getting powerful enough to carry a useful bomb load.
Assimilatory. Jews are tolerable, in his opinion, as long as they act like Germans and speak German and dont try to upset society, because he hopes and believes that they will inevitably turn German given time. He does believe in the Stab-in-the-Back myth but he sees Jews as a nuisance with an innate inclination towards bad habits more than "evil", and sees Germany as being able to safely "curb their Jewishness". Assimilation isn't an entirely unrealistic belief, given that German Jews were some of the most assimilated of any in the world, but that would change if Germany had to deal with a large number of non-German Jews. Those Jews would be seen as a lot more threatening and he would push for them to be forced to emmigrate.
True, though low bar. Von Lettow-Vorbeck will still be pretty bad by modern standards in a lot of ways. Of course, in modern Germany ITTL, tearing down statues isn't legal and you definitely wouldnt get away doing it to one of his.
On this I could see the British seeing only potential upside to such a deal.
It brings them a large influx of cash that the colony itself isn't bringing. They can rope the Germans into picking up the majority cost of the Cape to Cairo railway in the colony. They make themselves viewed even more favourably by L-V while at the same time impacting German coffers, reducing their ability to put more money into say their army. And of course ensuring the Germans have to keep playing nice with Britain because the Royal Navy would be able to cut off access to Tanganyika very easily.
So all in all might work out for both of them. Who knows, maybe Tanganyika could end up something like this?
Considering that the regime is run by more "conventional" right-wingers than OTL, a question I have been thinking about is how much the ideas and plans of the Conservative Revolution would influence the development of Germany here and whether the figures behind such a movement are Vorbeck's intellectual base or have thrown their lot with the (rump and Hugenberg-led) DNVP here or a bit of both.
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I am late to the party but can’t wait to see how this develops. Von Lettow-Vorbeck is a fascinating character- certainly his opposition to Hitler in OTL when it would have been so easy for him to go along was laudable- and it will be interesting to see how he rises to the top and where he takes Germany.
Absolutely not. Stalin was not going to commit any aggression until pretty much everyone else was tied up in wars with each other. When he did start attacking, he had Germany's explicit (though secret permission), and France and Britain were not only busy elsewhere, they had no way to intervene.
Stalin's greatest external fear was that all the nations the USSR was intrinsically hostile to (the capitalists, the imperialists, the monarchists, and the fascists) would join together against Communism. One might not see "Allied" troops sent to Finland, but lots of arms aid, and even volunteer legions.
I agree, short of a war that distracts everyone who's important, he wouldn't dare to move against anyone, although I still imagine the military reforms would be made earlier as well as keeping talented generals in Europe, which makes me wonder if Japan couldn't explore that in the Far East(which I'm doubtful they would given the coming war with China as well as the more available resources in places like Malaysia and the Dutch East Indies)
Short of a war taking everyone's attention... indeed...
I wonder if Japan gets up to anything in the 30's... surely no conflict which could develop dangerously and explosively and concern all the Great Powers of Europe...
It does make one wonder if Japan could do better here or at least, be able to secure some of their goals from OTL and manage to keep their empire still intact but that of course depends on who they're invading and if they can force a peace on them.
I think not.
There have very few options, if they want to expand their territory,.or at least sphere of influence.
Namely: China, which did not exactly go well for them in OTL. It would just be a meat grinder, that they cannot control.
Then, if they look hungrily at European colonies - that brings American sanction. From there, the Japanese are left with three options: back down, have their war machine grind to a halt or declare war on the USA. They would go for the last one.
Which would be, again, a truly awful plan.
I think if they attacked a place like the Dutch East Indies it could alleviate the sanctions as it gives them all the rubber and oil they could ever want, it brings Britain into conflict with them but it's not as bad as if they were against the USA, especially because it gives them the excuse to attack into Malaysia, Burma and incentivize independence movements in the Raj
Speaking of Japan, what would be interesting would be how butterflies would affect the power struggle between the Kodoha and Toseiha factions in Imperial Japan, especially with the latter winning out IOTL and all that.
That's the problem though. Any attack to the DEI will have to go through the Philippines, and that just leaves them too vulnerable. They HAVE to attack the US if they want a war for the colonies.
Japan's best, most logical bet is to strengthen it's army to be ready for a landgrab in a Soviet-European war. But Japan isn't really known to be logical, unfortunately.
Japan's best, most logical bet is to strengthen it's army to be ready for a landgrab in a Soviet-European war. But Japan isn't really known to be logical, unfortunately.
Speaking of Indonesia, @Kosaki_MacTavish could be someone to consult for possibilities for TTL's Indonesia and how it develops here.
Well, let's see.
IOTL German expartriates went here after the Black Tuesday. Lots has established their own enterprises, ranging from a more sophisticated ones like trading and shipping companies, to a more traditional one like tea, quinine, and coffee plantantions, like a German bussinessman named Walther Hewel who established a coffee plantantion near Malang which office was at Soerabaja. Also, the share of Europe-Dutch-American trade on the East Indies went down because of the industrialization of the Japanese Empire, but the Germans under Hitler didn't invested substantially here.
ITTL, Lettow-Vorbeck can use this opportunity to 'help' the Dutch alleviate their own Crisisjaren by investing properly into the rubber plantantions in Sumatra and Java, increasing their own share in the East Indies trade in expense of Japanese and the Americans' shares, and even giving political support for the Governor-General De Jonge and the Vaderlandische Club (Dutch reactionaries organization in the Indies) against the Dutch reformists and Indonesian nationalists when the time comes (and their investments are being threatened).
Edit: Forgot to add a certain German planter up there
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