The eagle's left head

[X Oristos]

If Dusan lives long enough to make that peace...

That was a cliffhanger: the narration stopped in November while Dusan died/got poisoned in December. I look forward to the next update.

Though is the peace a white peace? Feels like the Lascarids could have gotten some money from Stefan, the "I got silver mines to fund me invading everyone" guy.

From a certain POV they will get. Peace with Serbia means that part of the serbian silver will be exported via Thessaloniki. The Serbian elites needed luxury textiles and spices in return for bullion. The Despotate can provide both. The Sardinian mines will be exhausted in 1365 and it will kickstart or at least exacerbate a silver famine. Said famine got much worse when the Ottomans captured the serbian and bosnian mines. Then, it seems that Longobucco continued to produce til the late 18th century, even if it was much less productive than the central european mines.

In TTLthere is a very good chance that the balkan silver mines will continue to be part of the christian trade network and the Despotate will be in a good place to become an equivalent of OTL Venice in the export of bullion to the Indian Ocean via Egypt. If such development takes place, then we are talking about incredible wealth: an almost monopoly on spices til the Portuguese reach the Indian Ocean, then a collapse to a third of the volume at the beginning of the 16th century and a recovery after the 1540s with a duopoly until the Dutch reach the Indies at the late 16th century.

Manuel Kantakouzenos had taken less than well to Gattilusio showing up in Mytiline with imperial order to give Lesbos over to a Genoese former pirate. Francesco was hardly the kind of man to be deterred by a mere Greek's refusal or the odds. Perhaps he should have as Manuel would prove a much tougher customer than his father crushing Francesco small squadron and killing him.

A pity that the capable Manuel did not succeed his father. He seems to have been much more capable than both Palaiologos and his brother Matthew. It seems that there are three possibilities now:

a) Manuel stays in his rich little appanage after an affirmation by Ioannis. He gets rich and maintains his strong garrison of 500 cavalry and 1000 infantry. The Maritime Powers leave him be, since it will be expensive to capture Lesvos.

b) He is closer to his brother Matthew than in OTL and doesn't have the Principality of Achaea next door. With his small fleet and army he can have reasonable success in Western Thrace. Even in 1356, the ability of Constantinople to project power west of the Evros river will be very limited. The cities there will be looking for a protector. It can be Manuel or more likely Dusan or even Alexandros.

c) If Ioannis is smart - which I doubt, he will reach an accord with Manuel to have his army and fleet attack Gallipoli early on. Manuel and the rest of the Byzantine islands, can produce an equivalent of the Savoyard Campaign.

If Dusan lives long enough to make that peace...

If he lives, he will be an excellent buffer against the Ottomans and might conquer most of Thrace during his lifetime. Since he is the same ruler as in OTL, he will still oversee a decentralized state that will break when he dies.

 

[Rommel1941]

What made the ottomans formidable was the combined arms tactics which depended upon gunpowder, horse archers, and janniserries. If they can be kept from capturing the Balkans then you eliminate the janniserries, and most likely the gunpowder forces. As the ere or Sicily adapt gunpowder their ability to capture anatolia increases. So some effort to keep them in anatolia leads to a very promising reconquest their. Especially with tamerlane in the future.

 

[DankStalin]

From a certain POV they will get. Peace with Serbia means that part of the serbian silver will be exported via Thessaloniki. The Serbian elites needed luxury textiles and spices in return for bullion. The Despotate can provide both. The Sardinian mines will be exhausted in 1365 and it will kickstart or at least exacerbate a silver famine. Said famine got much worse when the Ottomans captured the serbian and bosnian mines. Then, it seems that Longobucco continued to produce til the late 18th century, even if it was much less productive than the central european mines.

In TTLthere is a very good chance that the balkan silver mines will continue to be part of the christian trade network and the Despotate will be in a good place to become an equivalent of OTL Venice in the export of bullion to the Indian Ocean via Egypt. If such development takes place, then we are talking about incredible wealth: an almost monopoly on spices til the Portuguese reach the Indian Ocean, then a collapse to a third of the volume at the beginning of the 16th century and a recovery after the 1540s with a duopoly until the Dutch reach the Indies at the late 16th century.

View attachment 894926

Sounds like a great way to keep the state afloat from the many many threats that seek to end it, and developing the country as well (though just afraid that there might come a mediocre or outright bad Lascarid despot that will spend all that wealth away at a crucial moment).

Question though,why wasnt the Byzantines able to be what you said in the OTL(Pre 1300s)? Sure, there isnt a silver famine during that time, but they are better positioned and a bit more stronger then. The wealth would have helped them greatly with its ever shrinking tax and manpower base.

 

[X Oristos]

Sounds like a great way to keep the state afloat from the many many threats that seek to end it, and developing the country as well (though just afraid that there might come a mediocre or outright bad Lascarid despot that will spend all that wealth away at a crucial moment).

I think even at this point, the country has been expanded long enough and has been centralized long enough, to be able to survive an outright bad ruler. I would think that even with mediocre rulers it will prosper.

Question though,why wasnt the Byzantines able to be what you said in the OTL(Pre 1300s)? Sure, there isnt a silver famine during that time, but they are better positioned and a bit more stronger then. The wealth would have helped them greatly with its ever shrinking tax and manpower base.

By the time the massive expansion of trade took place in the 12th century, byzantine international trade was dominated by Italians. Then there was the 4th Crusade and by the time the state recovered you had Andronikos II to be a meme-worthy idiot and destroy three generations worth of effort.

The question is if Venicecan afford under certain circumstances not to go at war.

Soon enough Venice will face an existential threat. In 1356 Lajos will focus on Venice. He won't go half-cocked but he will be as prepared as he could be. In OTL he reached out to Charles IV, Nicolaus of Luxemburg the Patriarch of Aquileia, Francesco I da Carrara and Albert II the Duke of Austria to form an anti-venetian league. He got the Pope's blessing as well. By all means his campaign was successful: he reached the shores of the lagoon and the Venetians were preparing for an assault, sinking wooden poles to the channels leading to Lido. The treasury was running out money. The main dalmatian cities were lost. It is interesting that the Venetians did not seriously contest the Hungarians in Dalmatia. I think it might indicate that the Venetians had focused their resources and manpower in protecting the Lagoon itself. Otherwise, there was no territory more important than Dalmatia.

In 1350 the Venetians could crew only 25 galleys with their own citizens without recruiting Dalmatians. Then, right after the plague they fought a bloody war that cost thousands of lives. If anything in 1356 they will be more hard-pressed in 1356.

So, if Lajos reached out to the Duke of Austria in OTL, then it would be very plausible to reach out to Alexandros. Or not. After all, Sicily demanted to be independent from the Regno, his righful possession. At the same time, if he wants to continue the fight against Louis he needs the future cooperation of Alexandros and Sicily is a natural ally against both Venice and Serbia. Overall, it seems to be a complicated relationship but it is worth mentioning that Lajos demonstrated flexibility in OTL by recognizing the rule of Joanna and Louis and returned his hostages. If he could do that to the people he deemed as his brother's murderers, then he can find common ground with a wayward ally.

Lajos could invite Alexandros to take his pound of flesh from Venice. What could the Venetians do to counter such proposition? They can offer Kythera and Karpathos to Alexandros, but these islands are close to worthless compared to Euboea and Crete. They could propose a favorable trade treaty that gives access to the venetian market and through that the market of the Po valley, but the potential cost of it might be higher than even the loss of Crete in the long term. Or they may deem that they have to fight to keep what is theirs. Whatever the outcome, it seems that the Despotate will profit. Aragon deals with the War of the Two Pedros, Genoa is utterly exhausted from the recent war and doesn't have Chios to quickly recover, Louis is still dealing with Abruzzo and Istvan. Lajos has the ability to provide some funds to "loyal" Lalle to keep him in the fight. Miklos Toldi and the hungarian remnants can support Lalle instead of finding employment under Louis as in OTL. After all, a couple of thousand of mercenaries cost less than the 12,000 army Lajos initially led to Italy. Lajos had provided an army of a bit fewer than 1,600 men to the Pope for two years (1357-1359) so he could afford a similar number in Abruzzo.

Overall, Genoa, Aragon and Naples are not a danger to Alexandros. Lajos might want to win him over as an ally and Venice might try to buy him out. Win-win.

 

[Tsipouras1997]

The Despotate might find themselves otherwise engaged while Lajos is fighting Venice if:

1) Alexandros is drawn into the Castilian Civil War and War of the Two Peters against Aragon thanks to his marriage to Blanche/Agnes and ties to Genoa.
2) Alexandros after seeing a chance to expand into Naples proceeds to preemptively end the Truce with Louis now that the war with Serbia is over. [Ambitious Trait Activates]
3) Stefan Dusan lives longer than OTL and proceeds to invade again OR he dies as OTL and Alexandros seeks to Liberate Epirus and Macedonia in the chaos.
4) Alexandros goes for an invasion of Menteshe from Rhodes securing an Anatolian foothold. [Ambitious Trait Activates]
5) Alexandros is called (or calls himself) into the latest Imperial Civil War.

 

[Lascaris]

Soon enough Venice will face an existential threat. In 1356 Lajos will focus on Venice. He won't go half-cocked but he will be as prepared as he could be. In OTL he reached out to Charles IV, Nicolaus of Luxemburg the Patriarch of Aquileia, Francesco I da Carrara and Albert II the Duke of Austria to form an anti-venetian league. He got the Pope's blessing as well. By all means his campaign was successful: he reached the shores of the lagoon and the Venetians were preparing for an assault, sinking wooden poles to the channels leading to Lido. The treasury was running out money. The main dalmatian cities were lost. It is interesting that the Venetians did not seriously contest the Hungarians in Dalmatia. I think it might indicate that the Venetians had focused their resources and manpower in protecting the Lagoon itself. Otherwise, there was no territory more important than Dalmatia.

There is an underlying assumption of course here that after Louis takes over Dalmatia he will not leave the despotate to fend for itself against Venice and that if he does the Despotate can win an one on one naval war against Venice.

 

[HunterX]

Crete seems a likely flashpoint. Revolts against Venetian rule are common and a significant historical one is coming up. Venice was paranoid enough about foreign aid to Crete OTL, here the Lascarids will have them terrified.

 

[Xenophonte]

I think even at this point, the country has been expanded long enough and has been centralized long enough, to be able to survive an outright bad ruler. I would think that even with mediocre rulers it will prosper.

I think that you may be overlooking both the Despotat unity and the damage that any possible bad ruler or even a mediocre one, may be able to cause... Given that it may be so much that the next one would, if posible, have a hard time attempting to 'fix' what their predecessor did..,

 

[Avrorrange]

Are the Despots interested in acquiring a more regal title now that they are officially independent? Also, they need to tread along the Church reunification line much closely than ever now that they acquired even more Catholic subjects.

 

[X Oristos]

and that if he does the Despotate can win an one on one naval war against Venice.

It is not an unreasonable assumption though. Venice in 1356-57 is at its weakest in centuries. More importantly, it is not an unreasonable assumption for the Venetians to make. At the Revolt of St Titus, after they had time to breathe and access to the naval manpower of Cyclades and the latin statelets, they sent an armada of 33 galleys to Crete. Right after losing thousands of men in the war against Genoa and after losing Dalmatia, I guess they can send out a fleet of fewer than 33 galleys. At the same time, geography dictates that Euboea cannot be properly defended unless they focus all their strength at Negroponte and Lascarid corsairs will paralyze the venetian trade with Genoese independent actors (well... pirates) joining the frame, After a 5 year war that was destructive for their commerce, a new war would be catastrophic and would make even more difficult to maintain their naval forces.

It is a very reasonable assumption that Lajos will leave Alexandros on his own. After all, Theodore did the same to Lajos after a certain fashion. However, Francesco I da Carrara will remain an enemy of the Serenissima and could be expected to bounce on Terraferma if the Venetians throw everything they have against Alexandros - and they need a major war effort against Alexandros. With a hostile da Carrara they cannot easily get grain from Veneto and north Italy and Apulia the traditional venetian breadbasket, is mostly in sicilian hands. Their former subjects in Dalmatia hate the Venetians more than da Carrara or even the Genoese, so I doubt they will become the saviors of Venice.

The Patriarch of Aquileia Nicholas of Luxemburg can be expected to continue the fight as well - he will die of course in July 1358. He was a cunning and a ruthless political operator. And Nicholas brings also a friendly Charles IV. There are important actors with an axe to grind. These didn't achieve their goals in 1356-58 and their forces are intact.

I think that you may be overlooking both the Despotat unity and the damage that any possible bad ruler or even a mediocre one, may be able to cause... Given that it may be so much that the next one would, if posible, have a hard time attempting to 'fix' what their predecessor did..,

You are right. The example of Andronikos II Palaiologos is after all a very potent one in terms of incompetency.

 

[Beaufortq]

Are the Despots interested in acquiring a more regal title now that they are officially independent? Also, they need to tread along the Church reunification line much closely than ever now that they acquired even more Catholic subjects.

Honestly if I was them I would start setting my sights on the imperial throne by now.

Of course if they capture Naples in the next war they could already proclaim themselves Kings of Sicily but otherwise there's no real Kingdom to proclaim again and no suzerain (Pope, Emperor) to bestow a new one onto them I think.

 

[Whiteshore]

What made the ottomans formidable was the combined arms tactics which depended upon gunpowder, horse archers, and janniserries. If they can be kept from capturing the Balkans then you eliminate the janniserries, and most likely the gunpowder forces. As the ere or Sicily adapt gunpowder their ability to capture anatolia increases. So some effort to keep them in anatolia leads to a very promising reconquest their. Especially with tamerlane in the future.

Speaking of which, if we have the Ottomans get whacked by Timur, what would be interesting to ponder would be the Middle East without the Ottomans, especially as the Timurids collapse shortly after their leader's death and the Mamluks were not exactly the most innovative of powers.

Honestly if I was them I would start setting my sights on the imperial throne by now.

Of course if they capture Naples in the next war they could already proclaim themselves Kings of Sicily but otherwise there's no real Kingdom to proclaim again and no suzerain (Pope, Emperor) to bestow a new one onto them I think.

And in addition to the Kingdom of Sicily after taking Naples, the Lascarids could always adopt the title of Emperor and Autocrat of the West akin to the Komnenoi in Trebizond being "Emperors of the East".

 

[Avrorrange]

Honestly if I was them I would start setting my sights on the imperial throne by now.

Of course if they capture Naples in the next war they could already proclaim themselves Kings of Sicily but otherwise there's no real Kingdom to proclaim again and no suzerain (Pope, Emperor) to bestow a new one onto them I think.

Don’t need someone to bestow the title on them. Proclaim your own. As for the imperial throne, they are probably not getting it without crushing the Serbs in a decisive war to retake Macedonia first. As it is, they should be badly exhausted from the plague and the wars.

 

[Whiteshore]

Don’t need someone to bestow the title on them. Proclaim your own. As for the imperial throne, they are probably not getting it without crushing the Serbs in a decisive war to retake Macedonia first. As it is, they should be badly exhausted from the plague and the wars.

Which is why a Trebizond-esque title of "Emperor and Autocrat of the West" is a good "interim" title to adopt.

 

[Avrorrange]

Which is why a Trebizond-esque title of "Emperor and Autocrat of the West" is a good "interim" title to adopt.

The actual Western emperor would like a word with ya. What about something like Emperor of the Syracuse? Emperor of Sicily?

 

[DankStalin]

The actual Western emperor would like a word with ya. What about something like Emperor of the Syracuse? Emperor of Sicily?

Western Emperor? Pretty sure they are gone for at least 900 years

 

[Whiteshore]

Western Emperor? Pretty sure they are gone for at least 900 years

I think they were talking about the "Holy Roman Emperor" and how he would probably not respond positively to Syracuse making such a move, especially as the Lascarids are descended from the Hohenstaufens.

 

[Xenophonte]

would be the Middle East without the Ottomans, especially as the Timurids collapse shortly after their leader's death and the Mamluks were not exactly the most innovative of powers.

I'd dare to guess that if the events up to Tamerlane death would follow the OTL path, and then, I'd suppose that the Aq Qoyunlu (White Sheep Turkomans) would be the better placed for extend their OTL ruled territories or at least nominal suzerainty to the rest of Anatolia...

 

[galileo-034]

An imperial title bestowed by Ioannis V would carry more legitimacy, and legal precedents, as far back as the 4th century. And the "defunct" western imperial title is a convenient title for Ioannis V to throw at Alexandros, as it would not mean a formal co-emperorship.

It is not an unreasonable assumption though. Venice in 1356-57 is at its weakest in centuries. More importantly, it is not an unreasonable assumption for the Venetians to make. At the Revolt of St Titus, after they had time to breathe and access to the naval manpower of Cyclades and the latin statelets, they sent an armada of 33 galleys to Crete. Right after losing thousands of men in the war against Genoa and after losing Dalmatia, I guess they can send out a fleet of fewer than 33 galleys. At the same time, geography dictates that Euboea cannot be properly defended unless they focus all their strength at Negroponte and Lascarid corsairs will paralyze the venetian trade with Genoese independent actors (well... pirates) joining the frame, After a 5 year war that was destructive for their commerce, a new war would be catastrophic and would make even more difficult to maintain their naval forces.

It is a very reasonable assumption that Lajos will leave Alexandros on his own. After all, Theodore did the same to Lajos after a certain fashion. However, Francesco I da Carrara will remain an enemy of the Serenissima and could be expected to bounce on Terraferma if the Venetians throw everything they have against Alexandros - and they need a major war effort against Alexandros. With a hostile da Carrara they cannot easily get grain from Veneto and north Italy and Apulia the traditional venetian breadbasket, is mostly in sicilian hands. Their former subjects in Dalmatia hate the Venetians more than da Carrara or even the Genoese, so I doubt they will become the saviors of Venice.

The Patriarch of Aquileia Nicholas of Luxemburg can be expected to continue the fight as well - he will die of course in July 1358. He was a cunning and a ruthless political operator. And Nicholas brings also a friendly Charles IV. There are important actors with an axe to grind. These didn't achieve their goals in 1356-58 and their forces are intact.

Indeed at this point, I dare think Venice is even weaker than OTL in a conflict with the Lascarids in a TTL war of Chioggia and ...
Indeed @Lascaris, those horses would look nice in Syracuse.

 

[Nuraghe]

It is not an unreasonable assumption though. Venice in 1356-57 is at its weakest in centuries. More importantly, it is not an unreasonable assumption for the Venetians to make. At the Revolt of St Titus, after they had time to breathe and access to the naval manpower of Cyclades and the latin statelets, they sent an armada of 33 galleys to Crete. Right after losing thousands of men in the war against Genoa and after losing Dalmatia, I guess they can send out a fleet of fewer than 33 galleys. At the same time, geography dictates that Euboea cannot be properly defended unless they focus all their strength at Negroponte and Lascarid corsairs will paralyze the venetian trade with Genoese independent actors (well... pirates) joining the frame, After a 5 year war that was destructive for their commerce, a new war would be catastrophic and would make even more difficult to maintain their naval forces.

It is a very reasonable assumption that Lajos will leave Alexandros on his own. After all, Theodore did the same to Lajos after a certain fashion. However, Francesco I da Carrara will remain an enemy of the Serenissima and could be expected to bounce on Terraferma if the Venetians throw everything they have against Alexandros - and they need a major war effort against Alexandros. With a hostile da Carrara they cannot easily get grain from Veneto and north Italy and Apulia the traditional venetian breadbasket, is mostly in sicilian hands. Their former subjects in Dalmatia hate the Venetians more than da Carrara or even the Genoese, so I doubt they will become the saviors of Venice.

The Patriarch of Aquileia Nicholas of Luxemburg can be expected to continue the fight as well - he will die of course in July 1358. He was a cunning and a ruthless political operator. And Nicholas brings also a friendly Charles IV. There are important actors with an axe to grind. These didn't achieve their goals in 1356-58 and their forces are intact.


You are right. The example of Andronikos II Palaiologos is after all a very potent one in terms of incompetency.

I think even at this point, the country has been expanded long enough and has been centralized long enough, to be able to survive an outright bad ruler. I would think that even with mediocre rulers it will prosper.


By the time the massive expansion of trade took place in the 12th century, byzantine international trade was dominated by Italians. Then there was the 4th Crusade and by the time the state recovered you had Andronikos II to be a meme-worthy idiot and destroy three generations worth of effort.



Soon enough Venice will face an existential threat. In 1356 Lajos will focus on Venice. He won't go half-cocked but he will be as prepared as he could be. In OTL he reached out to Charles IV, Nicolaus of Luxemburg the Patriarch of Aquileia, Francesco I da Carrara and Albert II the Duke of Austria to form an anti-venetian league. He got the Pope's blessing as well. By all means his campaign was successful: he reached the shores of the lagoon and the Venetians were preparing for an assault, sinking wooden poles to the channels leading to Lido. The treasury was running out money. The main dalmatian cities were lost. It is interesting that the Venetians did not seriously contest the Hungarians in Dalmatia. I think it might indicate that the Venetians had focused their resources and manpower in protecting the Lagoon itself. Otherwise, there was no territory more important than Dalmatia.

In 1350 the Venetians could crew only 25 galleys with their own citizens without recruiting Dalmatians. Then, right after the plague they fought a bloody war that cost thousands of lives. If anything in 1356 they will be more hard-pressed in 1356.

So, if Lajos reached out to the Duke of Austria in OTL, then it would be very plausible to reach out to Alexandros. Or not. After all, Sicily demanted to be independent from the Regno, his righful possession. At the same time, if he wants to continue the fight against Louis he needs the future cooperation of Alexandros and Sicily is a natural ally against both Venice and Serbia. Overall, it seems to be a complicated relationship but it is worth mentioning that Lajos demonstrated flexibility in OTL by recognizing the rule of Joanna and Louis and returned his hostages. If he could do that to the people he deemed as his brother's murderers, then he can find common ground with a wayward ally.

Lajos could invite Alexandros to take his pound of flesh from Venice. What could the Venetians do to counter such proposition? They can offer Kythera and Karpathos to Alexandros, but these islands are close to worthless compared to Euboea and Crete. They could propose a favorable trade treaty that gives access to the venetian market and through that the market of the Po valley, but the potential cost of it might be higher than even the loss of Crete in the long term. Or they may deem that they have to fight to keep what is theirs. Whatever the outcome, it seems that the Despotate will profit. Aragon deals with the War of the Two Pedros, Genoa is utterly exhausted from the recent war and doesn't have Chios to quickly recover, Louis is still dealing with Abruzzo and Istvan. Lajos has the ability to provide some funds to "loyal" Lalle to keep him in the fight. Miklos Toldi and the hungarian remnants can support Lalle instead of finding employment under Louis as in OTL. After all, a couple of thousand of mercenaries cost less than the 12,000 army Lajos initially led to Italy. Lajos had provided an army of a bit fewer than 1,600 men to the Pope for two years (1357-1359) so he could afford a similar number in Abruzzo.

Overall, Genoa, Aragon and Naples are not a danger to Alexandros. Lajos might want to win him over as an ally and Venice might try to buy him out. Win-win.

furthermore I would also like to point out that potentially the Della Scalas could also want to join this anti-Venetian alliance ( given that both entities had conflicting objectives in the same region, and Venice was known to support any possible rebel movement against the Veronese expansion ) therefore also they would be interested in weakening the Serenissima, as long as the inclusion of the Carraras does not ruin the negotiations between the parties ( considering their intervention to depose Cangrande II in Otl ) for the rest I believe that even Charles IV could be remotely interested in acting as a possible arbiter of the matter