I am also a bit surprised that no one has brought up the fact that Maurras and the Integralists getting the aid of the Fascists is going to lead to a really unhappy marriage. After all, Integralism opposed a lot of the things that Fascism (at least of the Italian kind) advocated for, like French cultural superiority and assimilation, plus colonial hegemony. What you get from combinding those two is a very unhappy marriage that can only work as long as they have a common enemy.
tbf I think it'd work for any far-right France and Italy. After all, they know they need each other, and if France goes off the deep end while the Italians die in Abyssinia and then Yugoslavia only the USSR would be willing to help them. They're going to be a better fit for each other since everyone else sees them as too insane.
My guess on how things go is that the Ethiopian war goes similar to otl other than the fact that Germany uses this as an excuse to ramp up weapon/shell production for Ethiopia, which keeps them closer to Britain (who sees the finished products actually reach Ethiopia) while France just gets more paranoid and jumps deeper into insanity as the AF gains more power due to it.
On the crime the French are going to do other than them going insane in Algeria I wonder if France are going to put Bretons, Occitanian and Corsican speakers into concentration camps and kill them systematically after protests against very stringent language laws as a 'final solution' against 'non-french speakers' alongside the Jews, while they go lebensraum in Algeria. For the europeans to notice it probably has to be in Europe for the europeans to notice.
It be interesting to see France being shown as 'one of the nations that lost WWI despite nominally winning it' since it does feel like Britain's the only one who actually gained from it, and the rise of Germany would just make WWI all the more bitter.
Also what's the status in Ireland?
I can neither confirm nor deny the possibility of your psychic powers once again proving frustratingly accurate in finding one of the big factors which will badly destabilise and lead to a great deal of suffering in Yugoslavia
I do wonder how things would go tho. It's highly implied that Italy would straight up break Yugoslavia up ittl, with the Ustase going insane, but I wonder how it ends. I wonder if we get an actual Italian revolution for Italy to go relatively scot free, and Italy moves out (to fight its own relatively brief civil war) while Yugoslavia continues to burn, and the hatred between the Croats, Serbs and smaller groups causes Yugoslavia to split after the war.
I wonder how Greece would turn out. With the royals being very pro German and the brits and germans working together I wonder if we'd see a less dictatorial Greece in general, with Greece gaining Corfu (probably) and not being part of the Yugoslav war and being in the same side of Bulgaria means that war won't reach Greece. A hybrid regime in Greece that still accommodates the venizelists may mean Cyprus gets to be part of Greece, which would be very cool too. I do think the venizelists would drop the megali idea tho, they know they won't be able to do something that would allow them to fight turkey once again.
And honestly, Italy may have had a good shot at keeping a hold of Lybia for the long term had they been able to implement the Fourth Shore and had the demand for labour and expertise exploded one oil had been found there.
I think if Italy can leverage Libyan oil I think it will work, especially if they pull off similar tactics as France during their Fascist period.
I want to specify that what I'm about to say might change depending on how my plans develop, but, according to my current plans, Italy will exit their Fascist era with more mainland territory than they had in 1930.
I do wonder how they manage to do that, especially if they fight in Yugoslavia/a balkan crisis. Maybe we just get the dissolution/partition of Yugoslavia (Bulgaria finally gets Macedonia lol) but it doesn't explain why France would be seen as committing a crime that killed millions or how Germany fights the USSR.
My best guesses are that France kills non French within their borders and Stalin (or rather a successor) fights in Poland but it does feel something's missing. I am very much itching to see how it develops!
Maybe a swap?
South Tyrol for Nice-Savoy and Corsica
If Croatia is going insane I don't think Italy would need to do that, they just need to promise autonomy to the Slovenes and they probably would be happy to stay. I just don't think it'll negate the loss of Eritrea and Somalia.
Maybe they'll lose it after the fascist period as Italy just becomes more and more weak?
It does feel the death of imperialism won't be as early as otl (especially due to the lack of reach ittl USSR has) and the colonised will suffer a lot more due to that.
And that's not accounting for Asia at all.
if we get anything similar to a pacific war ittl things would get insane very quickly there too. I just hope Sarawak stays independent.