I dunno how far the Nazi nuke program would get, it took the US a lot of money and effort and brainpower as-is, and the Soviets cobbled theirs together after stealing the deets from the US. Germany's nuke program was screwed because of a calculating error.
AHC: Nazi invasion of the USA by 1950
- Thread starter BiteNibbleChomp
- Start date
And, mind, the US nuclear program really slowed down after WW2, and only really started upping the numbers later on after the Soviets produced their first successful bomb. With an opponent that might require of them, there'd be no lull in production of American warheads.
Might I suggest the wrong type of ships are being counted.
Take a quick look at Operation Iceberg. Long-range amphibious assault with most of the assault force mounting out in Leyte and the Solomon Islands.
7th Infantry Division assault shipping: 20 x LST, 12 x LSM, 12x APA, 5 x AKA and 1 x LSD. That is 48 amphibious ships to carry one division and attached tank battalion and an extra engineer battalion. An armored division would require more LSTs.
The Assault was conducted with 7 divisions afloat (4 x Army, 3 x USMC), two sets of Corps troops (III AC and XXIV Corps) and other CS and CSS. Roughly 183,000 troops and 312,000 tons of vehicles and supply in the initial assault and 1st support echelon.
The assault force and 1st support echelon took 458 amphibious ships to transport and land. Amphibious ships do not get replaced by "merchants". Those carry the logistics on additional runs, which must start as soon as the landing force is all ashore.
Reference for assault shipping and logistic support:
https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/okinawa/appC.htm#t4
On top of this is US 5th Fleet, British Pacific Fleet, their auxiliaries, escorts, battleships and cruisers. Then add the gunfire support ships, escort carriers and destroyers supporting TF 51. IIRC nearly 1,000 ships total.
For Okinawa, the logistics force was landing ~160,000-200,000 tons of supply every two weeks. Given the distances involved, that is a large number of ships. With typical "period" transport ships you are looking at 3-4 transport loads per division equivalent per 7-10 days.
In 1944, the average US-UK turnaround time was 77 days (43 days in port) for a cargo ship. Turnaround time includes loading, assembly into convoys, outgoing transit, unloading and return transit. This figure includes waiting for a slip to unload and waiting for the convoy to assemble. That is US and British ports without using slave labor. Ports were very congested. US to the Mediterranean was 116 days, Persian Gulf via Good Hope was 206 days. There is a 17-day transit time in convoy at period-ship speeds, meaning that each division consumes 20-24 ships at sea; add another 8 ships loading and unloading. Add another division equivalent for Corp troops and engineers (at least). Even assuming friendly, efficient labor the Iceberg-sized assault force consumes 224-256 cargo ships to manage the logistics. That is if they can load and unload in one week on each end (which was better than the WAllies did)! Don't forget that operations on Okinawa would consume a lot less motor fuel than mounting an attack against the lower 48.
Where does that fuel come from? Persian Gulf I would assume, which increases the average turnaround time to 126 days (via the Mediterranean and Red Sea). Perhaps they create a large fuel port in Morocco, but one is still looking at trans-Atlantic turnaround times (plus the back end ships to move fuel and supplies to the African ports.
How many Corps and Divisions are needed to win? 75? 100? 150?
How many Corps/Divisions are needed in the first 60 days (because that is roughly what it will take to turnaround the initial amphibious ships)?
For the sake of argument, let's say the initial landing is 18 Divisions (6 x Corps, 2 x Field Armies). Roughly speaking 1,200 amphibious ships and 1,300 - 1,500 cargo ships for logistic support. How far does 18 Divisions get you?
The USN had roughly 2,500 amphibious ships in August 1945. It would have taken half of all the USN amphibious shipping available in 1945 to mount Operation Coronet (15 Divisions). In 1945 the USN had more amphibious shipping than has been afloat at any other time in history (by a very large margin). CONUS is a much bigger nut to crack than Honshu.
The US pre-war shipbuilding program gets the USN to 1,782 ships in December 1942 and 3,699 ships in December 1943. Germany is going to need a very large blue water navy to successfully reach the East coast with their unprecedented amphibious fleet. Many, many billions of DMs on shipbuilding.
Take a quick look at Operation Iceberg. Long-range amphibious assault with most of the assault force mounting out in Leyte and the Solomon Islands.
7th Infantry Division assault shipping: 20 x LST, 12 x LSM, 12x APA, 5 x AKA and 1 x LSD. That is 48 amphibious ships to carry one division and attached tank battalion and an extra engineer battalion. An armored division would require more LSTs.
The Assault was conducted with 7 divisions afloat (4 x Army, 3 x USMC), two sets of Corps troops (III AC and XXIV Corps) and other CS and CSS. Roughly 183,000 troops and 312,000 tons of vehicles and supply in the initial assault and 1st support echelon.
The assault force and 1st support echelon took 458 amphibious ships to transport and land. Amphibious ships do not get replaced by "merchants". Those carry the logistics on additional runs, which must start as soon as the landing force is all ashore.
Reference for assault shipping and logistic support:
https://history.army.mil/books/wwii/okinawa/appC.htm#t4
On top of this is US 5th Fleet, British Pacific Fleet, their auxiliaries, escorts, battleships and cruisers. Then add the gunfire support ships, escort carriers and destroyers supporting TF 51. IIRC nearly 1,000 ships total.
For Okinawa, the logistics force was landing ~160,000-200,000 tons of supply every two weeks. Given the distances involved, that is a large number of ships. With typical "period" transport ships you are looking at 3-4 transport loads per division equivalent per 7-10 days.
In 1944, the average US-UK turnaround time was 77 days (43 days in port) for a cargo ship. Turnaround time includes loading, assembly into convoys, outgoing transit, unloading and return transit. This figure includes waiting for a slip to unload and waiting for the convoy to assemble. That is US and British ports without using slave labor. Ports were very congested. US to the Mediterranean was 116 days, Persian Gulf via Good Hope was 206 days. There is a 17-day transit time in convoy at period-ship speeds, meaning that each division consumes 20-24 ships at sea; add another 8 ships loading and unloading. Add another division equivalent for Corp troops and engineers (at least). Even assuming friendly, efficient labor the Iceberg-sized assault force consumes 224-256 cargo ships to manage the logistics. That is if they can load and unload in one week on each end (which was better than the WAllies did)! Don't forget that operations on Okinawa would consume a lot less motor fuel than mounting an attack against the lower 48.
Where does that fuel come from? Persian Gulf I would assume, which increases the average turnaround time to 126 days (via the Mediterranean and Red Sea). Perhaps they create a large fuel port in Morocco, but one is still looking at trans-Atlantic turnaround times (plus the back end ships to move fuel and supplies to the African ports.
How many Corps and Divisions are needed to win? 75? 100? 150?
How many Corps/Divisions are needed in the first 60 days (because that is roughly what it will take to turnaround the initial amphibious ships)?
For the sake of argument, let's say the initial landing is 18 Divisions (6 x Corps, 2 x Field Armies). Roughly speaking 1,200 amphibious ships and 1,300 - 1,500 cargo ships for logistic support. How far does 18 Divisions get you?
The USN had roughly 2,500 amphibious ships in August 1945. It would have taken half of all the USN amphibious shipping available in 1945 to mount Operation Coronet (15 Divisions). In 1945 the USN had more amphibious shipping than has been afloat at any other time in history (by a very large margin). CONUS is a much bigger nut to crack than Honshu.
The US pre-war shipbuilding program gets the USN to 1,782 ships in December 1942 and 3,699 ships in December 1943. Germany is going to need a very large blue water navy to successfully reach the East coast with their unprecedented amphibious fleet. Many, many billions of DMs on shipbuilding.
This last comment proceeds from a false assumption. The USN that stomped Japan flat was approved in in the Naval Act of 1938 and especially in 1940 about a month after France fell. That little incident focused the attention of the Congress and the Two Oceans Navy Act passed the House 316-0 after ONE hour of debate. Those two acts approved $10B (1940 USD) for the fleet alone and 15,000 aircraft for the fleet.
@BiteNibbleChomp I don't know why your so hell bent on wanking Nazi Germany so hard that they can do anything more than die on the beaches. Everything you have said has been continuously picked apart because even if Germany had the ability, you assume that the US will sit with it's thumb up it's ass going bblblblbl.
What is your desired end goal anyway, do you want to know if an attempt is plausible or do you want Germany to win somehow? Besides the most plausible conflict would not be in the Atlantic but between each other's allies as proxy battles escalate and nations rivaling their neighbors use American/German troops to settle scores. The Atlantic line won't budge but the Latin American, Oceanian, Eurasian and African fronts will be much more eventful
What is your desired end goal anyway, do you want to know if an attempt is plausible or do you want Germany to win somehow? Besides the most plausible conflict would not be in the Atlantic but between each other's allies as proxy battles escalate and nations rivaling their neighbors use American/German troops to settle scores. The Atlantic line won't budge but the Latin American, Oceanian, Eurasian and African fronts will be much more eventful
If I have to take action in this thread and am thus unable to participate it would be VERY unfortunate.
SsgtC
Banned
In your opinion, with no Pacific war ITTL, what do you think the USN would look like? Personally, I don't think we see any Independence class light carriers, but conversely, we have more Cleveland class light cruisers. I'm also personally of the opinion that the Montana class battleships get completed along with the last two Iowa class. And, fair warning, I'm about to give you a heart attack, we might even see all 6 Alaska class completed. At the very least Hawaii gets completed. We might also get all 12 Des Moines class ships instead of just the 3 we got IOTL. What do you think?
One of the major issues I have seen in this thread is the amount of concentration on battleships. Even in the North Atlantic the battleship was a dying breed by 1940. The fact that the Reich eventually defeated the British is, far from the presumption that the U.S. would stand pat, going to provoke an even greater response than was actually the case IOTL post France's surrender. The 1940 2 Oceans Act approved EIGHTEEN full size carriers (i.e. the entire Essex class). That was while the RN still had functional control of the North Atlantic east of Iceland (U-boat commerce raiders notwithstanding). If that force is removed from the board what is the, by a frightening percentage, wealthiest nation state on the planet going to do in reaction? Keep in mind that the USN was the one military branch (with a bit of love tossed at the Army Air Corps) that was never starved by even the most strident isolationists because it ALLOWED the U.S. to be curtained off from the Old World foolishness (not to mention that Isolationism stopped dead once you hit the Western Hemisphere, that was OUR playground, had, in the minds of the American people, if not in fact, been America's interest since James Monroe was in office).
The KM was, at best, the unloved child of the Reich. Hitler saw the fleet as an afterthought. German naval architects were a full generation, arguably two generations in some areas, especially CV/CVL, behind the other major Naval Powers (IJN, RN, USN). The German BB designs (the H 39 class was simply an upgraded Bismarck, with all the inherent design flaws retained and rest were napkinware) were roughly at the level of the Hood (1918-1919 with some upgrades) and they were designed to refight Jutland while the KM CV designs were, frankly, unworthy of the term "design". There was zero experience in carrier operation within the KM (the IJN, RN, and USN all had about 20 years to work out the kinks during peacetime and the first year of serious combat was STILL something of a Charlie Foxtrot for all three fleets).
The reality is that in any naval engagement the USN engages with at least a two, likely three to one advantage in gun tubes and throw weight, WITHOUT factoring in the Standard Classes and a 10, likely 15:1 advantage in carrier decks. This, BTW, is WORSE than it looks since U.S. carriers were designed to carry 80-100 aircraft while the GZ had a complement of 33 (a 33,000 ton CV with 33 aircraft, the Essex class ran 27K standard with 90-100 aircraft) while the Midway class (started as a design study in 1940) could roost 130 WW II aircraft. So, best case (lest hold just to approved designs) the USN winds up with between 29 and 34 CV (since the Pacific War never happened that means the Lexington, Yorktown and Wasp classes are available, as is the Ranger and possibly a number of CVL and CVE) carrying roughly 1900 fighters and 900 attack aircraft (assign two VF (54) one VT (12) and one VS squadron (16) per ship) vs four Graf Zeppelin class CV (all that Plan Z allocated) carrying a TOTAL of 132 aircraft. Fairly easy to see which fleet holds serve.
This doesn't even consider the 'Phib force. Just to invade Kyushu the USN planned to deploy over 900 transport SHIPS (not landing craft, transports and LST) and was just to put enough forces ashore to take the southern 1/3 of the Island, with major U.S logistical bases less than 500 mils away (and a second major base 1,000 miles away). It is 2,200 miles from the Azores to the closest point in the U.S. Simply put that means either 3x as many transports or the same number of transports going 3x as fast (i.e transports making a steady 36 knots+) and 3,000 miles from the UK. Now move that force across the Atlantic with 2,800 carrier borne aircraft, 8-10,000 heavy bombers (old and slow, but against transports w/o air cover? Death on a stick) at least that many medium and jet bombers and 10-15,000 land based single and double engine fighters, pounding on them for about 10 days with the aircraft making between two and three sorties per day. How many of those troop ships make it to the Eastern Time Zone? 50? Maybe 100? When the do they run into a 100 division U.S. Army.
Not going to happen.
(Keep in mind that if it hadn't been for basing in the UK, the WAllies would never have been able to mount Overlord)
The KM was, at best, the unloved child of the Reich. Hitler saw the fleet as an afterthought. German naval architects were a full generation, arguably two generations in some areas, especially CV/CVL, behind the other major Naval Powers (IJN, RN, USN). The German BB designs (the H 39 class was simply an upgraded Bismarck, with all the inherent design flaws retained and rest were napkinware) were roughly at the level of the Hood (1918-1919 with some upgrades) and they were designed to refight Jutland while the KM CV designs were, frankly, unworthy of the term "design". There was zero experience in carrier operation within the KM (the IJN, RN, and USN all had about 20 years to work out the kinks during peacetime and the first year of serious combat was STILL something of a Charlie Foxtrot for all three fleets).
The reality is that in any naval engagement the USN engages with at least a two, likely three to one advantage in gun tubes and throw weight, WITHOUT factoring in the Standard Classes and a 10, likely 15:1 advantage in carrier decks. This, BTW, is WORSE than it looks since U.S. carriers were designed to carry 80-100 aircraft while the GZ had a complement of 33 (a 33,000 ton CV with 33 aircraft, the Essex class ran 27K standard with 90-100 aircraft) while the Midway class (started as a design study in 1940) could roost 130 WW II aircraft. So, best case (lest hold just to approved designs) the USN winds up with between 29 and 34 CV (since the Pacific War never happened that means the Lexington, Yorktown and Wasp classes are available, as is the Ranger and possibly a number of CVL and CVE) carrying roughly 1900 fighters and 900 attack aircraft (assign two VF (54) one VT (12) and one VS squadron (16) per ship) vs four Graf Zeppelin class CV (all that Plan Z allocated) carrying a TOTAL of 132 aircraft. Fairly easy to see which fleet holds serve.
This doesn't even consider the 'Phib force. Just to invade Kyushu the USN planned to deploy over 900 transport SHIPS (not landing craft, transports and LST) and was just to put enough forces ashore to take the southern 1/3 of the Island, with major U.S logistical bases less than 500 mils away (and a second major base 1,000 miles away). It is 2,200 miles from the Azores to the closest point in the U.S. Simply put that means either 3x as many transports or the same number of transports going 3x as fast (i.e transports making a steady 36 knots+) and 3,000 miles from the UK. Now move that force across the Atlantic with 2,800 carrier borne aircraft, 8-10,000 heavy bombers (old and slow, but against transports w/o air cover? Death on a stick) at least that many medium and jet bombers and 10-15,000 land based single and double engine fighters, pounding on them for about 10 days with the aircraft making between two and three sorties per day. How many of those troop ships make it to the Eastern Time Zone? 50? Maybe 100? When the do they run into a 100 division U.S. Army.
Not going to happen.
(Keep in mind that if it hadn't been for basing in the UK, the WAllies would never have been able to mount Overlord)
We probably get something like the Saipan class for a CVL (obviously with a different class name). With an aggressive and obviously determined and powerful enemy like the Nazis staring across the Atlantic you would see all 24 Essex class ship completed with 3-5 follow on class (OTL Midway) in the 45,000 ton range. All six Iowa class ships along with the five Montana class (and possibly a follow on if the KM gets some H-41 class with 42 CM guns, just because) probably a full run of the Alaska class (ACK!!!!) with a second class, maybe with a fresh design 14" gun (similar to how the CB received a possibly the finest naval rifle ever designed in the 12"/50 Mark 8, crappy ships, superb main battery) and 36 knots to chase panzerschiffs (or a second series of Iowas). The full Oregon City class gets built, along with a full order of Des Moines CA and the entire 54 ship run of the Cleveland class and a full run of Fargo class CL. Hordes of destroyers (the U-boat threat will be an on-going issues) and DDE along with a CVE type used in anti-sub HK teams (although it is less likely that Henry J will pump out 100+ of the things). At some point some clever lad in BuShips (Nimitz?) will realize the best way to kill enemy subs is hunting them during the day with aircraft and at night with USN subs, maybe paired with semi-rigid airships carrying radar.
Have to figure that everything that was ordered would be built (including my personal favorite "might have been" aircraft the F8B, got to love a 450mph single seat fighter that can play torpedo bomber carrying TWO fish) with the fleet making the change-over to jets faster than IOTL (there wouldn't be the post war "why do we need carriers again?" that lasted from 1946 until Korea broke out)
Well, the German CVs have no chance whatsoever as you've pointed out. There aren't enough German cruisers to matter, nor destroyers (if they even had the range). Their auxiliary vessels are similarly nowhere near enough to matter. The only naval point there is to debate is the battleships and subs. And battleships, naturally, always appear big and imposing. Always have to argue them. Especially as the amount of submarines, while enough to be damaging, will be outmatched by the destroyers and destroyer escorts that will eventually be called in to counter them. So the battleship point really is the only one that can be clung to, when in reality the submarines have the chance at making the best dent.
I mean, when is the timeframe for Britain falling? Late 1940? Late 1941? Not exactly sure when. Regardless, if it sues for peace by then, the Germans have a free hand. If they press East immediately, then the US doesn't go in and immediately occupy the Atlantic Islands. If the Germans immediately start leaning on the Spanish and Portuguese, you have a good shot of War Plan Grey going ahead.
And if Britain does turn fascist/is couped, then you will definitely see a US occupation of British territory outside Europe so it can't be used as a forward base. If the Azores are bad, Bermuda would be even more unacceptable, same with Newfoundland.
At least they have Panzerschiffe they can hunt! Which gives them some validation!
As for a "second" group of Alaskas, I wouldn't imagine they'd increase gun size anymore (in that case, just build an Iowa); instead, just improve the torpedo defense, tinker with the armor protection, get rid of that mid-ship hanger and catapults, and fix the propulsion issues. That should fix the majority of the bad ship problems that arose from it just being an upsized
Heck, you're likely to see the CL-154 class actually get the go ahead. Or, perhaps, given the imminent need of AA cover, the US redesigns the 8"/55 RF Mk 16 into a 6" variant that's DP, with the resulting Worcester ending up as 18 gun, 20 round per minute per gun, rapid fire nightmares.
Heh. That'd be a sight there. Another interesting might be the XF5U, simply because it does not require the takeoff distance required by jet aircraft and similar, and could operate from small decks. That, combined with being able to match pace with jet aircraft, might make it an interesting proposition, especially with many smaller flattops to operate from.
The OP indicated the UK surrendered after a second BoB that it lost in 1943 (unlikely to be sure, but it is the scenario) with the country out of the war by January 1 1944. The USSR is already mostly out of the war (think AANW, the OP used it as an example).
The scenario falls apart because of the 1938 Naval Act and the 1940 Two Oceans Navy Act. The OP seemed to believe that without Pearl Harbor the U.S. wouldn't have a bigger fleet than OTL's 1939. Folks tend to forget that the fleet that crushed the Japanese like an empty beer can was authorized and paid for by August of 1940. All the Japanese attack did was authorize a shitload of overtime for ship yards.
Interestingly, in this scenario they U.S. might be able to build up even faster since steel won't be diverted for couple thousand 'Phibs or in Lend Lease to the Soviets.
Just for shits and giggles, what happens if the KM gets 6 of each BB from H-39 through H-44 (ASB obviously, handwave the budget) and 10 GZs, while the US stomps Japan flat and then begins building up for the inevitable clash with the Nazis?
More specifically, how long does it take for the USN to destroy the bulk of the Kriegsmarine if Hitler, being a man of limited connection to such things as reality and common sense, sends the fleet out to re-fight Jutland in the Atlantic?
More specifically, how long does it take for the USN to destroy the bulk of the Kriegsmarine if Hitler, being a man of limited connection to such things as reality and common sense, sends the fleet out to re-fight Jutland in the Atlantic?
The KM can build H class until the end of time and it wouldn't matter. 10 GZ = 330 aircraft. As noted earlier just the carrier aircraft component include 1,900 fighters, probably 2/3 of them FJ-1 or F9F (and possibly F9F-6), the rest Corsairs and F8B with the attack squadrons mainly AD-1 and F8B in attack roles (although the F9F was a nifty little attack aircraft itself). Once the KM fighters are gone its just Ten-Go writ large with some B-47s tossed in for flavor.
So...about two, maybe three hours? Man, Hitler would probably be left catatonic just from the inability to juxtapose his fantasies with reality.
...part of me really wants to see a movie or a video game ("Wolfenstein: Reality Ensues"?) with a concept like that, the sort of thing that would make Michael Bay pass out in pleasure.
I actually wrote up a version of this encounter in AANW.
But it wouldn't be battleships vs battleships, it would be battleships vs. US taskforce with carriers. The battleships never get close enough to fight eachother, because the german ones would already be at the bottom of the ocean before they get close enough.
I've never read that whole TL straight through because there's only so many Nazi atrocities I can read about before I get sick, but I'll definitely flip through it again to find that scene!