AHC/PC Germany keeps gains from Brest Litovsk but still ‘loses’ to Entente?

[Avrorrange]

I was just wondering if it is possible for Germany to beat Russia like OTL but ‘loses’ to Entente in some way whereby Germany is forced to bribe entente by losing overseas colonies and Alsace Lorraine etc (minus losing the Polish Corridor) to Entente, along with massive financial compensations in a type of Congress of Vienna type of settlement that permits them to keep their Eastern conquests as 'compensation' for other losses? Would the US not entering into the war have been a likely result of this?

 

[jacob ningen]

Isn't this what happened IOTL?

 

[Avrorrange]

Isn't this what happened IOTL?

They didn’t retain control over the Brest Litovsk territory and places like Ukraine rapidly ‘returned’ back to the fold.

 

[Dorknought]

After the Armistice, the Germans thought they’d be able to raise bonds on the London market to fund development in the eastern conquests. Big mistake.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

I was just wondering if it is possible for Germany to beat Russia like OTL but ‘loses’ to Entente in some way whereby Germany is forced to bribe entente by losing overseas colonies and Alsace Lorraine etc (minus losing the Polish Corridor) to Entente, along with massive financial compensations in a type of Congress of Vienna type of settlement? Would the US not entering into the war have been a likely result of this?

Only way I see this as possible is the USA is not only not entering the war, and also to not only stop making any more loans to the Entente, but starts calling their existing loans due if the Entente are not sitting at the negotiating table in April, 1917, with a peace treaty needed to be signed by mid to late 1917. This isn't exactly likely, but if you want Germany to keep it's gains in the East, something has to happen in the West, to make such a peace happen.

This would also keep the Germans from being disarmed, not cut up at this alternative ToV.

 

[Lalli]

Only way what I can see is keep Soviet Russia stable instead falling to civil war. Not sure how to do that anyway or is that even possible. And then Germany should sue peace already on Summer (perhaps even more disastroud Spring Offensive which get Germans to realise that the war is unwinnable). Then with stronger Russia Britain might realise that it is bigger threat than Germany and decides to get France agree. More difficult anyway is to get that idea through Wilson's thick skull.

 

[lukedalton]

It's a little strechetched but:
- The 11 battle of the Isonzo is an italian victory that become the Caporetto of A-H with the Hapsburg Empire on the verge of collapse
- Without the need to send some troops to prop up the italians in the aftermath of OTL Caporetto the Anglo-French continue their planned offensive and the Germans retreat from France as they planned
- The USA stay neutral and decide to stop the loan as the entente guarantee are finished
- The situation in the east remain more or less the same with Germany renouncing his colonial empire and A-L plus well compensation for the damage done to private by the Germans troops
It's a compromise peace that it's clear will be just a pause till the next roud

 

[Avrorrange]

Are the Germans far more willing to pay the reparations in this scenario seeing as they have vast territories to milk?

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

Only way I see this as possible is the USA is not only not entering the war, and also to not only stop making any more loans to the Entente, but starts calling their existing loans due if the Entente are not sitting at the negotiating table in April, 1917, with a peace treaty needed to be signed by mid to late 1917. This isn't exactly likely, but if you want Germany to keep it's gains in the East, something has to happen in the West, to make such a peace happen.

This would also keep the Germans from being disarmed, not cut up at this alternative ToV.

But then how would Germany be forced to give back Alsace-Lorraine?

 

[Crueldwarf]

I was just wondering if it is possible for Germany to beat Russia like OTL but ‘loses’ to Entente in some way whereby Germany is forced to bribe entente by losing overseas colonies and Alsace Lorraine etc (minus losing the Polish Corridor) to Entente, along with massive financial compensations in a type of Congress of Vienna type of settlement that permits them to keep their Eastern conquests as 'compensation' for other losses? Would the US not entering into the war have been a likely result of this?

How exactly Germans are supposed to hold Poland if they loose the war in the West? And if they do not hold Poland, how they would deal with Polish own designs on most of the territory that Germans got out of Brest-Litovsk?

Do you really think that Poles would look at German control over Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania any more favorably than they look at the Red one?

Your scenario basically leads to German-Polish War in 1920-21 instead of Polish-Soviet one.

 

[Avrorrange]

How exactly Germans are supposed to hold Poland if they loose the war in the West? And if they do not hold Poland, how they would deal with Polish own designs on most of the territory that Germans got out of Brest-Litovsk?

Do you really think that Poles would look at German control over Ukraine, Belarus and Lithuania any more favorably than they look at the Red one?

Your scenario basically leads to German-Polish War in 1920-21 instead of Polish-Soviet one.

With guns. Lots of it, wielded by highly experienced and disciplined soldiers. Losing to Western Entente =/= not being capable of dealing with the Poles. A loss to the Western Entente would be a close run thing without American entry into the war. The German army at this point in time simply cannot be compared to the Soviets. To begin with, the Polish had to actually create a military with permission and help from the Germans before this talk of resisting them.

 

[Crueldwarf]

Well, if Poles would start to fight Germans, they will have French and British support even quicker than they got it OTL. Because keeping the Germans down was a very big thing for the French. Much bigger than containing the communism.

Basically, Germans cannot keep their gains in the East without pissing off Poles and pissing off Poles means pissing off French and pissing off French means pissing off British. And so we back to the square one of Germans being forced to surrender everything they got via Brest-Litovsk without much fighting.

 

[Avrorrange]

Well, if Poles would start to fight Germans, they will have French and British support even quicker than they got it OTL. Because keeping the Germans down was a very big thing for the French. Much bigger than containing the communism.

Basically, Germans cannot keep their gains in the East without pissing off Poles and pissing off Poles means pissing off French and pissing off French means pissing off British. And so we back to the square one of Germans being forced to surrender everything they got via Brest-Litovsk without much fighting.

The Germans will just massacre the Poles and the French and British will likely just watch. In order for the French and British to provide any kind of assistance to the Poles, they would have to first prove that they are capable of defeating the Germans, which they are not.They don’t have an army armed and equipped to immediately deal with millions of German soldiers fresh from the Great War. France and Britain are badly exhausted, and any attempt to re-start a war they just got favourable terms from would be viewed negatively by the public. Look at all the treaty violations from OTL, every time a former Central power violated the peace treaties, Entente does almost nothing because the public doesn’t want to restart the war.

 

[Crueldwarf]

They definitely didn't allow Soviets to massacre Poles. So I do not see any reason for them to allow Germans to do the same.

Again, realistically there is no way for the Germany to keep results of Brest-Litovsk intact post-defeat. Lenin understood that when he went for it. What are you proposing is ASB, not alternate history.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Are the Germans far more willing to pay the reparations in this scenario seeing as they have vast territories to milk?

Yes, because their empire was mostly a money sink, and if the French can be forced to make peace in 1917, not by German arms, but by the return of A/L, and an end to the fighting, the sure.

How exactly Germans are supposed to hold Poland if they loose the war in the West?

They cannot loose the war in the West, else your correct that they would be disarmed. OTOH, if the Entente are forced to enter negotiations in April, 1917, with a treaty by Oct or so, else the USA starts calling in their loans, stops trading with them, and start trading with Germany instead...

Germany cannot win on the ground, in the west, in 1917 or 1918, so something else has to happen, so we can achieve the OP's conditions..

If France can regain A/L, through a peace treaty (because they have learned that in 3 years of fighting, they cannot take it in battle), and with the Germans loosing their colonies, but not their military, then France is getting their reparations, the "Lost Territories", and can call it good.

 

[Avrorrange]

They definitely didn't allow Soviets to massacre Poles.

They certainly did.There’s a reason why the Polish victory during the Polish-Soviet War was named a miracle.Entente provided no help to the Poles beyond logistics and military advisors.

So I do not see any reason for them to allow Germans to do the same.

Again, realistically there is no way for the Germany to keep results of Brest-Litovsk intact post-defeat. Lenin understood that when he went for it. What are you proposing is ASB, not alternate history.

They don’t have the means of continuing fighting much longer than the Germans if the Americans don’t enter the war. The ability of Entente to influence what kind of victory they could achieve is much more limited.

 

[Infinite-Monkeys]

I feel the answer here is a much more successful militant left, particularly in recruiting soldiers plus no US help,And some incredibly out of character foresight by the Germans and the French

Thinking about what the near end point of this ww1 would look like.

So the US doesn't join the war, The Russian Revolution happens and more quickly coalesce is into a militant USSR ( creating a threat to the East), meanwhile on the Western front the French and the British are making slow progress and have started pushing to Alsace Lorraine. However, Military mutinies start spreading first across French ( pre-existing precedent), and German (the enemy is now on home soil and British blockade is working), forces and then in turn spread to their allies. These mutinies are increasingly organised with some calling for continental wide revolution. This keeps escalating until both France and Germany are very worried about their own armed forces turning back and triggering a civil war.

But neither side can budge as in the other will march through the country and decisively win the war. The internal pressure of the growing Communist movement and increasing inability to trust their own troops ultimately forces all parties to the table with the reality on the ground leading to the entente both gobbling up,The German Empire and managing to take Alsace Lorraine, while Germany manages to keep its control over the east ( with the British tacitly supporting this as they really want German guns pointed at Soviets!). I suspect this will poorly be presented more like a draw/honourable peace but you can easily have once they get to the nitty-gritty the Germans that losing out including paying the largest chunk of reparations (after all most of the infrastructure damage is still being done to French soil).

This peace would likely be horrifically unpopular with the people In at least France and Germany ( I suspect is much easier to sell to the British public) And of course things aren't very stable domestically so there's a fairly high chance it signed and then one or more powers Will be fairly likely to collapse in civil war almost immediately after the peace happens, but it does lead to the end of the war.