Deleted member 140587
WI Yuri Andropov (by whatever butterfly it may be) has better health and manages to live until 1990. What would the Soviet Union look like? Who would succeed him?
One of the great ironies of post Stalin Soviet politics is that its two longest serving leaders were two of its worse. Khrushchev was unstable and unpredictable, whilst Brezhnev - perhaps as a reaction to Khrushchev's reforming instability, adopted a conservative stance and lacked any initiative to reform. In contrast Andropov who was the most capable leadership figures the CPSU ever produced found his tenure cut short due to kidney failure. Andropov spent much of his already brief rule bedridden in hospital, and was really only an effective leader of the USSR from November 1982 until mid 1983.
Andropov was in poor health in 1982, but no one could have predicted his decline would be as rapid as it was to be. After all Brezhnev had suffered a number of strokes through the 1970s and still (somehow) managed to cling on until the age of 76. Andropov would have turned 76 in 1990, so I agree with the assumption that he might have lived that long.
Andropov did introduce some significant reforms, however this was based around the premise of making the Soviet system more efficient rather than fundamental system change. He was attracted to the Hungarian 'goulash' communism, of a more decentralised system that would implement some market elements. However Andropov would not have implemented a full market economy. I've seen it suggested that Andropov might have been 'the Soviet Deng Xiaoping" but he really wasn't, if there was a Soviet Deng he was more than likely murdered in Stalin's purges before he could come to prominence.
In other domestic reforms Andropov launched a major anti-corruption campaign in 1982-83 designed to remove many Brezhnev appointees at the lower level of party and state bureaucracy. Not dissimilar of what Xi Jinping did in China in the run up to the 19th Party Congress in China, this campaign was designed to increase Andropov's control as much as it was about removing genuinely corrupt officials. For example Heydar Aliev was an incredibly corrupt leader of the Azerbaijani Communist Party, but instead of being purged Andropov promoted him and brought him into the Politburo. Andropov sought to promote his own protege's, being aware that he would likely only be leader for a relatively short amount of time given his age. His key proteges were Ryzhkov, Ligachev and above all Gorbachev, whom he saw as the next generation of leaders. Andropov also proposed allowing democratic elections within the Communist Party, although importantly he was opposed to multi-party politics and the USSR would have remained a one party state.
Whilst Andropov was a reformer domestically, in foreign policy he was an ardent hawk. He was the strongest proponent (and arguably the actual architect) of the Brezhnev doctrine. He had received the backing of the military-industrial faction of the Soviet bureaucracy led by Dmitri Ustinov in his bid for power in 1982 as Andropov argued that if economic reforms were implemented at home it would enable the USSR to increase defence spending. Had he lived Andropov may well have sought to de-escalate the Cold War once again by the late 1980s, but this would be more détente mkII than the more complete peaceful settlement that occurred OTL under Gorbachev. Andropov would not have stood by and allowed the USSR to lose its eastern European empire. He would not have let Hungary de-communize through the summer of 1989, and he would certainly not have allowed the Berlin wall to fall. More likely the more interventionist Andropov would have ensured Honecker's removal as East German leader in 1987. In OTL Gorbachev planned to force Honecker to retire, being replaced by the more reformist Hans Modrow, but decided against it.
If Andropov died in 1990 he would probably be succeeded by Gorbachev, or perhaps Ryzhkov.
Andropov was in poor health in 1982, but no one could have predicted his decline would be as rapid as it was to be. After all Brezhnev had suffered a number of strokes through the 1970s and still (somehow) managed to cling on until the age of 76. Andropov would have turned 76 in 1990, so I agree with the assumption that he might have lived that long.
Andropov did introduce some significant reforms, however this was based around the premise of making the Soviet system more efficient rather than fundamental system change. He was attracted to the Hungarian 'goulash' communism, of a more decentralised system that would implement some market elements. However Andropov would not have implemented a full market economy. I've seen it suggested that Andropov might have been 'the Soviet Deng Xiaoping" but he really wasn't, if there was a Soviet Deng he was more than likely murdered in Stalin's purges before he could come to prominence.
In other domestic reforms Andropov launched a major anti-corruption campaign in 1982-83 designed to remove many Brezhnev appointees at the lower level of party and state bureaucracy. Not dissimilar of what Xi Jinping did in China in the run up to the 19th Party Congress in China, this campaign was designed to increase Andropov's control as much as it was about removing genuinely corrupt officials. For example Heydar Aliev was an incredibly corrupt leader of the Azerbaijani Communist Party, but instead of being purged Andropov promoted him and brought him into the Politburo. Andropov sought to promote his own protege's, being aware that he would likely only be leader for a relatively short amount of time given his age. His key proteges were Ryzhkov, Ligachev and above all Gorbachev, whom he saw as the next generation of leaders. Andropov also proposed allowing democratic elections within the Communist Party, although importantly he was opposed to multi-party politics and the USSR would have remained a one party state.
Whilst Andropov was a reformer domestically, in foreign policy he was an ardent hawk. He was the strongest proponent (and arguably the actual architect) of the Brezhnev doctrine. He had received the backing of the military-industrial faction of the Soviet bureaucracy led by Dmitri Ustinov in his bid for power in 1982 as Andropov argued that if economic reforms were implemented at home it would enable the USSR to increase defence spending. Had he lived Andropov may well have sought to de-escalate the Cold War once again by the late 1980s, but this would be more détente mkII than the more complete peaceful settlement that occurred OTL under Gorbachev. Andropov would not have stood by and allowed the USSR to lose its eastern European empire. He would not have let Hungary de-communize through the summer of 1989, and he would certainly not have allowed the Berlin wall to fall. More likely the more interventionist Andropov would have ensured Honecker's removal as East German leader in 1987. In OTL Gorbachev planned to force Honecker to retire, being replaced by the more reformist Hans Modrow, but decided against it.
If Andropov died in 1990 he would probably be succeeded by Gorbachev, or perhaps Ryzhkov.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
I’ve read that Andropov was genuinely worried that the 1983 edition of the NATO military exercise Able Archer was cover for the real thing.
But I think you and I might still get to the same place, just because brainy people don’t like being controlled by their emotions. So, Andropov is likely to take it step by step and insist that logic is also there for any arms deal. Meaning, he might be a peace-through-strength kind of guy, just as much as Reagan was.
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Deleted member 140587
I'm trying to put this together. Perhaps:
Yuri Andropov - 1982-1990 (CPSU)
Mikhail Gorbachev - 1990-2007 (CPSU)
Vladimir Putin - 2007-Present (CPSU)
Lukashanko has a better chance than putin as at least lukashanko is known. Putin ias just a kgb agent. Heck i wouldnt be surprised that yeltsin doesnt get any real power.
If Gorbachev goes to 2007 then you need to look to the younger leaders. No reason to out some ancient party member in the place of those needed to carry reforms and the Soviet union forward. Andropov living longer is a butterfly unto its own that means that the next guy will be chisen based off the new situation and deals made at the time.
Assuming the union survives
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If Andropov lives until 1990, a further 8 years, I am not sure if it would be a given that Gorbachev would succeed him. Besides Gorbachev there was Grigory Romanov, Yegor Ligachev and Nikolai Ryzhkov who Andropov might eventually come to favour. This fella even notes that prior to Andropov's OTL death the person most like Andropov and most logical successor was Heydar Aliyev (although Aliyev coming from Azerbaijan meant he was unlikely to become leader in the 1980s) - he also writes that he doesn't believe Andropov completely trusted Gorbachev (his personal opinion be it remembered).
In fact, since Lukashenko had acquired a reputation for fighting corruption in the early 1990s (I know, I know, irony knows no bounds), he might have come out of left field and caught Andropov's attention and been brought to Moscow.
It might also help to look at the ages of the various politicians by 1990:
Yuri Andropov - 76 (dies 1990 in TTL)
Yegor Ligachev - 70 (still alive today by the way at age 99)
Mikhail Gorbachev - 59
Grigory Romanov - 67 (dies 2008)
Nikolai Ryzhkov - 61
Heydar Aliyev - 67 (dies 2003)
Alexander Lukashenko - 36
I also would not discount Putin or some other KGB figure being brought in by Andropov, after all Andropov was once chairman of the KGB. In TTL though I would expect Putin to continue with his KGB career and might even eventually head either the First Chief Directorate or Second Chief Directorate, certainly if he ever meets Alexander Sobchak (his friend who got him involved in politics directly) it would be under different circumstances and Sobchak himself is likely to only continue teaching law in Leningrad.
Certainly it would be interesting to see TLs where Ligachev, Romanov, Ryzhkov, Aliyev or even Lukashenko came to power rather than Gorbachev (since its now the very much expected thing for Gorbachev to succeed a longer-lived Andropov).
In fact, since Lukashenko had acquired a reputation for fighting corruption in the early 1990s (I know, I know, irony knows no bounds), he might have come out of left field and caught Andropov's attention and been brought to Moscow.
It might also help to look at the ages of the various politicians by 1990:
Yuri Andropov - 76 (dies 1990 in TTL)
Yegor Ligachev - 70 (still alive today by the way at age 99)
Mikhail Gorbachev - 59
Grigory Romanov - 67 (dies 2008)
Nikolai Ryzhkov - 61
Heydar Aliyev - 67 (dies 2003)
Alexander Lukashenko - 36
I also would not discount Putin or some other KGB figure being brought in by Andropov, after all Andropov was once chairman of the KGB. In TTL though I would expect Putin to continue with his KGB career and might even eventually head either the First Chief Directorate or Second Chief Directorate, certainly if he ever meets Alexander Sobchak (his friend who got him involved in politics directly) it would be under different circumstances and Sobchak himself is likely to only continue teaching law in Leningrad.
Certainly it would be interesting to see TLs where Ligachev, Romanov, Ryzhkov, Aliyev or even Lukashenko came to power rather than Gorbachev (since its now the very much expected thing for Gorbachev to succeed a longer-lived Andropov).
Wouldn't 36 years old Lukashenko be bit young as leader of USSR? Yes he wasn't much older when him became president of Belarus in OTL but it is different thing.
And Alijev as non-Slav seems quiet unlikely. Yes, Stalin was from Georgia but he was pretty much old guard Bolshevik whom had good chances for that position.
And Alijev as non-Slav seems quiet unlikely. Yes, Stalin was from Georgia but he was pretty much old guard Bolshevik whom had good chances for that position.
I agree (although Romanov and Grishin would likely have been removed once Andropov had strengthened his hold on power), and i agree that Aliyev would almost certainly have come to prominence, probably succeeding Tikhonov as Premier. In Georgi Arbatov's book he mentions how Andropov liked and trusted Aliyev despite his obvious corruption, but weirdly Aliyev despite his Stalinist instincts did support Gorbachev's claim to the leadership in both 1984 and 1985.
Its important to note not only Gorbachev's personality but the way he came to power as being important to shaping his leadership. In 1985 he was the youngest member of the Politburo, he had only been in Moscow for 7 years, and he only served a short apprenticeship under Andropov and Chernennko before having the leadership thrust upon him. Had Andropov lived he would have had more experience and his leadership might have seen more perestroika and less glasnost as a consequence.
Its unlikely that a KGB figure would rise to prominence after Andropov. Memory of Beria still cast a long shadow over the Soviet leadership, and whilst Andropov was a long serving KGB chairman, he did stand down from the role in May 82 in order to succeed Suslov as Second Secretary, mainly because he thought this would make him a more likely potential successor to Brezhnev. Putin would likely still be a KGB officer in East Berlin, he would be incredibly unlikely to rise to a position of influence.
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I agree on both which is why I said it was unlikely.
It isn't impossible though (besides Stalin we also had Beria from Georgia who was also part of a troika and a leadership contender).
It is more likely that Lukashenko gets drawn in to the Politburo or Central Committee at some point (in line with Andropov's trend of replacing elderly officials with much younger ones, and remember that positions would open up in 1985 anyway as Chernenko dies in 1985 which allows for some reshuffling) and then probably has a major shot at the top job in 2007. Aliyev is unlikely to become General Secretary/Chairman of the Presidium (assuming the roles are jointly held by the same person after 1990 which seems likely given Andropov's style as well as looking at China as an example of what happened after Deng when the two posts of General Secretary and President were re-centralized) but perhaps he might become Chairman of the Council of Minister/Premier.
Andropov's Premier was Tikhonov, but he was in the post before Andropov assumed leadership. Tikhonov's position was weakening even during Andropov's time, with Andropov appointed Aliyev (who himself used to head the Azeri KGB) as a First Deputy Premier in 1982 (Ivan Arkhipov was the only other First Deputy Premier at the time, Gromyko was appointed as a third First Deputy Premier in 1983, again without Tikhonov's consent or knowledge apparently). Perhaps by 1985 Andropov gets Tikhonov to resign and replaces him with Aliyev (which he was rumoured to have been planning to do in OTL - that is to replace Tikhonov with Aliyev, not necessarily doing it by 1985).
This would leave Ligachev, Ryzhkov, Gorbachev and Romanov as the most likely contenders come 1990 and just as happened in OTL after Andropov's death there is a chance that any factions opposed to Gorbachev (assuming someone else hadn't already arisen as Andropov's favoured successor) might be able to band together and get to have someone else voted in as General Secretary/Chairman of the Presidium.
Andropov's rise to power after being the longest serving chairman of the KGB would suggest otherwise. Beria's memory did cast a long shadow and it had an effect insofar as any future leadership contenders had to give up control of the KGB if they had any chance of becoming a leader in the state or the party. Hence Andropov gave up chairmanship of the KGB in May 1982 (2 days after becoming Second Secretary) and then became General Secretary in November 1982. His apparent protege, Heydar Aliyev was chairman of the Azeri SSR KGB until July 14, 1969 which is when he became First Secretary of the communist party in Azerbaijan.
Whilst Putin would still likely be a KGB officer, I really can't see him being in East Berlin in the same role from 1985 until 2007. Surely at some point the dude is going to get shifted or promoted elsewhere in the agency.
In terms of KGB officers/men rising to a position of influence, right off the bat from OTL we have:
* Andropov
* Aliyev
* Yevgeny Primakov (did work for the KGB whilst also working as a correspondent for Pravda between 1956 and 1970; then went into politics in 1989 becoming Chairman of the Soviet of the Union a member of Gorbachev's Presidential Council; then was appointed First Deputy Chairman of the KGB and Director of the KGB First Chief Directorate (responsible for foreign intelligence) and retained his position through the transition from the Soviet KGB to the Russian SVR; then went back into politics as foreign minister 1996-1998 and then Prime Minister 1998-1999 before attempting to run in 2000 Presidential elections against Putin before abandoning his presidential bid 2 months before the election; had Primakov stayed in the race and somehow won we would still have had a former KGB man as President of Russia in 2000)
* Vladimir Putin
When Primakov and Putin can both rise to positions of influence (and at times be in major positions of influence around the same time) having been in the KGB (and Primakov doing so during Soviet times to join Andropov and Aliyev) it doesn't sound incredibly unlikely that someone like Putin couldn't do so in a TL where Andropov lives longer. It definitely isn't likely (Lukashenko is far , far, far more likely to obtain a position of influence than Putin in a TL such as this) but I think people are discounting the possibility far more than is warranted.
As the leader of the USSR, the Soviet leadership prepared Nursultan Nazabaev to replace Gorabchev. And what is curious is Nazarbayev himself knew about this. So it is very likely that Nazarbayev will become general secretary immediately after Andropov.
As for Putin, in the USSR he would probably only now become the chairman of the KGB. In the USSR, it was not customary to promote too young. The future leader had to gain experience by working in various positions and showing himself there.
As for Putin, in the USSR he would probably only now become the chairman of the KGB. In the USSR, it was not customary to promote too young. The future leader had to gain experience by working in various positions and showing himself there.
Cuirassier
Banned
In OTL Andropov pushed Gorbachev over Ligachev and Ryzhkov although I don't know if he felt strongly enough to push him in any ATL.
Nazarbayev only came to the scene when the union was already in its death throws. I doubt without those conditions he would be brought to the fore over so many others.
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Andropov might genuinely be the only man who could've actually kept the USSR together (well, sort of...), through sheer force of vicious (anti-)charisma and incorruptibility. I've read that, during his tenure, Russians regarded him and Thatcher as the kind of platonic ideals of leadership, and I think the comparison is quite apt. The two had a fair bit in common – both big believers in paternalistic strong government, which seems to be something Russia admires, given the popularity of vozhd-types, most recently Putin, who, at least in his early years, praised Andropov.
That said though, I kind of think at least some sort of Soviet collapse was inevitable from the day the country sought to be more than a Russian socialist republic – that is, inevitable period, and even someone as firm and strong-minded as Andropov or like Aliyev, who's not strictly Russian, could keep it together, but maybe they could reform it as a goulash communist state that's managed to retain Central Asia, the Crimea, and Belarus?
That said though, I kind of think at least some sort of Soviet collapse was inevitable from the day the country sought to be more than a Russian socialist republic – that is, inevitable period, and even someone as firm and strong-minded as Andropov or like Aliyev, who's not strictly Russian, could keep it together, but maybe they could reform it as a goulash communist state that's managed to retain Central Asia, the Crimea, and Belarus?
Yea, that's what I've been suggesting. Because in OTL Andropov with his failing health pushed for Gorbachev in 1984. In any TL where he gets an extra 6 or so years a lot could happen between 1984 and 1990. After all Andropov and most of the politburo were initially against sending large scale Soviet forces to Afghanistan in 1978 (despite repeated requests for such by the Afghan leadership) but then Andropov and the rest of the politburo changed their minds in 1979 as the situation developed. So who is to say he may not come to favour Ligachev, Ryzhkov, Romanov or perhaps someone else we haven't even thought of?
Cuirassier
Banned
Kotkin wrote that Andropov pushed him for being a younger member with an image of honesty and hardwork. Ligachev and Ryzhkov don't come across as very strong characters but they wouldn't have undermined the party like Gorbachev did (TBH nobody would have done as badly as he did).
As @Cuirassier noted, Nazarbayev came to the scene when the union was already dying.
On the other hand Nazarbayev himself reportedly turned down the offer of the Vice Presidency of the Soviet Union by Gorbachev which given the title of the post meant the offer had to be in late 1990 and so would have been after the riots in Kazakhstan that helped propel Nazarbayev into the formal position of leader there (with Gorbachev removing Kolbin and having Nazarbayev replacing him) and after the CPSU gave up the monopoly on power in early 1990 and after the Baltic Republics had already declared sovereignty and independence and many other republic were declaring sovereignty (but not independence).
In a TL where Andropov holds on to power and holds the Eastern Bloc together with Kadarism/Andropovism, it seems likley that Nazarbayev will be premier of the Kazakh SSR from 1984 to 1986 as in OTL, but how his power play against the Kunayev brothers in 1986 would play out under Andropov isn't certain. Nazarbayev critcized Askar Kunayev for not reforming the Academy of Sciences and this incensed Askar's brother Dinmukhamed Kunayev who was First Secretary of the Kazakh communist party. First Secretary Kunayev took the issue to Moscow and lost as Askar was dismissed and Nazarbayev kept his position as Premier. Dinmukhamed soon lost his position as well.
In this alternate TL however, we also have to contend with the fact that Andropov was actively seeking to replace elderly party members with a younger cadre/generation. In this regard, a 46 year old new Premier of the Kazakh SSR accusing a 57 year old Askar Kunayev of not reforming the Academy of Sciences and Askar being defended by his 74 year old brother who had been First Secretary of the Kazakh SSR uninterrupted for the past 22 years (and held the position for a total of 24 years by then with a brief spell outside the post) seems like the perfect opportunity for Andropov to replace the elder Kunayev.
Who would replace Kunayev though? Might Andropov favour Nazarbayev? Or someone else? Like how Gorbachev favoured Gennady Kolbin initially? Might Andropov bring Nazarbayev in the Central Committee or the Politburo eventually as say a First Deputy Premier to understudy Aliyev?