With a PoD in... let's say the late 20s, and assuming the Japanese still invade much in the 1930s much the same way they did in OTL, what can be done to make the Chinese stop or defeat the Japanese at Wuhan or a similar Moscow-like battle? I was thinking that an earlier head-start to the German plan to train Chinese infantry and officers and expand the small arms and artillery industry would help.
Can China Win the Battle of Wuhan?
- Thread starter LeX
- Start date
Derek Pullem
Donor
More USSR "volunteers", especially pilots?
Supplies of chemical weapons to counter the Japanese use?
To "Stalingrad" the Japanese would be difficult due to lack of Chinese mobility but holding the Yangtse might be possible
Kou Gakei
Banned
Frankly, Wuhan was a battle that NRA couldn't win at any point even if there were more German-trained troops:
The region was a plain with crisscrossing rivers making it impossible for NRA to use its numerical advantage at any point. Given Japanese mobility, the only way NRA could have fought this to a standstill was to throw bodies into it.
The region was a plain with crisscrossing rivers making it impossible for NRA to use its numerical advantage at any point. Given Japanese mobility, the only way NRA could have fought this to a standstill was to throw bodies into it.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Win, no.
Bleed the Japanese so that they could not cross the Yangtse in force, so that Wuhan becomes the stop line. Maybe.
Wouldn't help the Nationalists that much, they still have to relocate their centre of operations.
What if the Chinese did better (on account of having better trained and armed divisions, like maybe 10-15 instead of 3) in the earlier battles? That would mean that by the time the Japanese try to break into Wuhan, they find they have too little strength to defeat the NRA's defense system. Basically the Chinese "victory" hinges on them having just enough extra weapons and competent organization/leadership to bleed the Japanese better.
10-15 German-armed and trained divisions won't help much. More than likely they'll be bled white in the urban meat grinder that was 1937 Shanghai just like OTL, unless you managed to change CKS's mind somehow.
Marc A
Thanks, that was the question I was most interested in. After all it's a matter of top-level decision.
I hadn't thought of that possibility, but it makes sense.
Don't worry, I'll still need you when it comes time to write about Korea.
At the time of the battle and shortly thereafter, many people thought that if the overall commander was Bai Chongxi or Li Zongren instead of Chen Cheng, than China could have won.
Ultimately, all that is needed is that China is able to inflict enough casualties that Japan realizes taking the city won't lead to the collapse of the Chinese war effort and that a stalemate would be the result regardless if the city was taken. If so, they could disengage in order to conserve their forces and begin their long war strategy of blockade.
I think there are several PODs that could have generated that. On the drive up the Yangtze to Wuhan, several Chinese river forts were seized quite easily because of various stupid things its commanders did. Prevent those, and the Japanese take longer time to get to Wuhan and have more casualties. A different strategy at Shanghai could do the same. If Han Fuqu fought at Jinan and delayed the Japanese from crossing the Yellow River, or if there was a follow up at China's victory at Taierzhuhuang.
Earlier PODs that accelerated the Nationalists control of China or their industrial development would also help since they'd allow for more weapons, organization, or preparations.
Ultimately, all that is needed is that China is able to inflict enough casualties that Japan realizes taking the city won't lead to the collapse of the Chinese war effort and that a stalemate would be the result regardless if the city was taken. If so, they could disengage in order to conserve their forces and begin their long war strategy of blockade.
I think there are several PODs that could have generated that. On the drive up the Yangtze to Wuhan, several Chinese river forts were seized quite easily because of various stupid things its commanders did. Prevent those, and the Japanese take longer time to get to Wuhan and have more casualties. A different strategy at Shanghai could do the same. If Han Fuqu fought at Jinan and delayed the Japanese from crossing the Yellow River, or if there was a follow up at China's victory at Taierzhuhuang.
Earlier PODs that accelerated the Nationalists control of China or their industrial development would also help since they'd allow for more weapons, organization, or preparations.
Thanks, that was the question I was most interested in. After all it's a matter of top-level decision.
I hadn't thought of that possibility, but it makes sense.
Don't worry, I'll still need you when it comes time to write about Korea.
Yes, the fundamental issue with a domestic-only POD is that even at the NRA's best, even a decisive victory will only end in a strategic stalemate. Japan will still have resources to invade across the South. This is where the Soviet Union can come in.
If Han Fuqu stood his ground instead of running it would butterfly away Taierzhuang as we know it, although it'd certainly buy more time for Zhang Zizhong and Pang Bingxun at Linyi.
Another POD would be Nanking. Let's say by October 1937 CKS realized his forces can't hold much longer in Shanghai and began evacuating the capital. If done correctly, they could empty the city by early December. Not only would this save 300,000 civilian lives, it would also preserve the cream of the NRA - 36th, 87th, 88th and Training Divisions, as well as a greater part of the LXXIV Corps and various other elite units.
Yet another interesting POD would be if Xue Yue managed to annihilate IJA 101st and 106th Divisions at Wanjialing. IOTL those two barely got away with 1,500 men, but imagine they're wiped out. Won't change much on the field, but a very, very big morale boost.
Marc A
Heh, this is a question after seeing the movie Nanking, nanking.
Do you think there would be higher morale in the KMT TTL if they simply evacuated the capital instead of, um...what happened OTL?
Heh, this is a question after seeing the movie Nanking, nanking.
Do you think there would be higher morale in the KMT TTL if they simply evacuated the capital instead of, um...what happened OTL?
A better handling of the retreat from Shanghai and avoiding the mess at Nanking I'd say you can get better combat performance later in the Xuzhou Campaign, so yes, I'd say better morale.
Marc A
P.S. I've been working on ways to make Chinese losses bigger for my own nefarious purposes it's actually hard to think of ways to makes things better for them in the early days
If WW2 was a game the different modes would likely beit's actually hard to think of ways to makes things better for them in the early days
Very Easy: USA
Easy: UK
Medium Easy: Germany (to 1942)
Medium: Japan (to 1942)
Medium Hard: USSR
Hard: France
Very Hard: China (Nationalist)
Boss Mode: China (Communist)
EDIT: Forgot Hell Mode
Hell Mode: Poland
What did Chen Cheng do that Li or Bai would not have?
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I don't remember off the top of my head, but Chen Cheng had a bad break around that time. He was called the "Three Chang" General for a while, IIRC, having lost Wuchang, Nanchang and Yichang in short succession. Compare that to Li Zongren's not-quite-stellar-but-still-good handling of the Xuzhou Campaign, and it'd affect how people view Chen Cheng.
Marc A
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If this is unrealistic please correct me but have one POD that essentially entails the communists being defeated whole hog in late 1934 during campaigns such as the attempted Jiangxi breakout. If CKC's encirclement campaigns of 1933 and 1934 can succeed in defeating the communists and ending the civil war you might have better prepared Nationalist forces in 1936 and 1937 if for no other reason than there will not be the distraction of needing to fight the communists.
Just a thought, this is a great ATL...
Just a thought, this is a great ATL...
If you break the First/Central Red Front in Jiangxi it leaves the Second RF (severely depleted after He Long's immediate subordinates purged the fuck out of its officer corps and NCOs) in western Hunan-Hubei and the Fourth RF in northern Sichuan. Depending on when Moscow gets the news, it'll leave Zhang Guotao (de facto commander of Fourth RF) as the most senior figure in CPC at least until Wang Ming can return. Assuming he makes it home, expect more internal struggles within ChiComm. In any case, they'll be in direr straits than OTL.
Does that end the civil war? Probably not right away. IOTL the Long March (or Long Escape, as I'd like to call it) has the additional benefit of reinforcing Chiang Kai-shek's influence in regions where he can't effectively control before (like, Sichuan and Yunnan). If given the right opportunity, the warlords of those regions might rise up (either in a coordinated effort or by themselves) against CKS to get more power i.e. OTL Liangguang Incident of 1936.
Overall, your idea is not too implausible, although you must take into account how would Japan (esp. hardcore militarists) react to internal changes in China.
Marc A