Can the German Empire hold Europe?

[Hawkeye]

Let's say that Wilson can't be budged from neutrality and there's a massive mutiny in the French army by mid 1918. Britain and France negotiate with Germany and agree to the following terms:

• Germany's colonial empire is dismantled.
• Britain and France will not pay the Central Powers any war reparations, the Allies will compensate Germany for the loss of its colonies for a fraction of what they are worth.
• Belgium's independence is restored but Germany will station its troops in some bases. Germany will annex some of Belgium's eastern territory.
• Luxembourg will be annexed by Germany.
• Alsace-Lorraine will remain a German territory.
• Serbia is forced to accept the conditions of the Central Powers
• Ottoman Empire loses most of its Arab territory to Britain and France.
• Austria-Hungary withdraws from Italy.
• And most importantly for this thread, the treaty of Brest-Litovsk is recognized.
• Germany sets up puppet states in Poland, the Baltics, Ukraine, and Belarus.

All sounds good for Germany and I'm sure there will be celebrations in German cities but there are still key issues that I find in this scenario for the Kaiser. In OTL, Germany had cannibalized its economy during the war by borrowing more than it could pay for from internal creditors. Much of the outrageous plans Germany had for a post-war Europe had started out as mindless nationalist propaganda. But by the end of it, it was driven by necessity or else its economy would collapse. In this world, Germany couldn't get the massive reparations from France and Britain so it'll have to rely even more on stripping Eastern Europe of capital than it originally planned, which I doubt will go well with the locals. Meanwhile, Austira-Hungary has theoretically survived the war, but by 1918 its economy had already deteriorated to crisis levels and ethnic unity had declined. It was because the Allies were obviously going to win that finally pushed it over the edge, but this world's A-H is going to face turmoil so the question there is will it endure or is it on borrowed time? On top of it all, I suspect that something like the great depression might happen earlier due to the loans the US gave to Britain who now can't pay them back without reparations from the Germans. A crash in the US market should still have global consequences although economics isn't my strong suit, I could be wrong on that.
So with problems in the East, the Balkans, and economic troubles it makes me wonder if the German Empire can handle it all, or will its newfound dominion over Europe prove to be short-lived?

 

[thezerech]

If Hindenburg and that kook Ludendorff stay in power, probably not.

 

[Citycat]

Even without the US involvement, Germany was on the brink of starvation by 1918, with the British blockade strangling the country, combined with the military government mismanagement of its economy. It seems strange the Allies would agree to such harsh terms when Germany was barely doing much better than they were

 

[Avrorrange]

Even without the US involvement, Germany was on the brink of starvation by 1918, with the British blockade strangling the country, combined with the military government mismanagement of its economy. It seems strange the Allies would agree to such harsh terms when Germany was barely doing much better than they were

Britain and France doesn’t lose anything though. Is it really ‘harsh’ except to the minor powers they had no trouble throwing under the bus in general?

 

[kham_coc]

Even without the US involvement, Germany was on the brink of starvation by 1918, with the British blockade strangling the country, combined with the military government mismanagement of its economy. It seems strange the Allies would agree to such harsh terms when Germany was barely doing much better than they were

There are three things to consider, First could the Germans sustain another winter? maybe, maybe not, but if it does, their position would seem to start to look very rosy with the BL territories.
Second, how long could the UK treasury continue to underwrite the war with no US money? or perhaps more aptly put, how long would they be willing to.
Thirdly, how many Poilus would be willing to die for AL.
If German policy is to seek peace after BL, on the terms as outlined, I doubt that the war could last until the next winter - So a scenario where the Germans ask for terms in April, is rejected, and then Allied offensives blunted and then sometime in July the troops mutiny when they find out that what they cared about could be had for free in April...

 

[Hawkeye]

There are three things to consider, First could the Germans sustain another winter? maybe, maybe not, but if it does, their position would seem to start to look very rosy with the BL territories.

I believe the keywords here are "look very rosy" as @Citycat is correct that Germany was starving. Even if the Germans took all the grain from Ukraine, leaving none for the Ukrainians, Germany might still not be able to meet its needs in 1918. However, that may not be obvious to the Allies and I believe that a quick succession of Russia collapsing, France buckling, and no signs of the Americans entering the war may prove too much for the already embattled British Liberal party. Without France, the Liberals have lost their main justification for convincing the British public to join the war while the Conservatives might fall under a delusion of "realpolitik" and conclude that the best move now is negotiate rather than risk carrying on alone.

 

[Hawkeye]

Something else that I haven't considered is the role the Soviets play in all this. On the one hand, they were willing to sign the BL treaty in the first place and only started reconquering the old Imperial territories after Germany was defeated. On the other, they did want to expand their influence and I have no doubt they would prod and take advantage of any signs of German weakness. I just don't know if that would take the form of overtly waging war against unstable German satellites or covertly through supplying arms to radical groups?