China as a Axis Supporter WWII

[Carl Schwamberger]

This derives from the multiple discussions I've seen about Japan as a Allied nation in WWII. The question/s revolve around how useful China is as a Axis supporter in WWII & the negative attention it receives (if any) from the Allies.

The PoD results in Japan not Occupying Manchuria in the 1930s, remaining on its earlier terms with the major powers, and not stumbling into war with China.

I'd expect the first result would be the German advisors, businessmen, and others are not withdrawn 1937-38 at Japans request. Ditto for Italians. That has knock on effects into the KMT and Chinas military, and political policy.

Undistracted by Japanese invaders the KMT is able to concentrate on suppressing Maos residual enclave.

German companies fronted by 'neutral' Chinese businesses seek to circumvent the blockade 1939-1942. Unless something changes such smuggling is likely as ineffective as OTL . Anyone disagree?

The KMT takes a hard look at terminating the foreign concessions and other items of the "Unequal Treaties" imposed in the 19th and early 20th Centuries. The extreme case is China takes police & military action to regain control of the concessions

With German encouragement China does a military occupation of French Indo China in 1940-41

What else might China do to actively support the Axis?

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

This derives from the multiple discussions I've seen about Japan as a Allied nation in WWII. The question/s revolve around how useful China is as a Axis supporter in WWII & the negative attention it receives (if any) from the Allies.

Why would the KMT align itself with Germany? It seemed to me like Chiang was much more worried about China itself than some anti-communist crusade.

The PoD results in Japan not Occupying Manchuria in the 1930s, remaining on its earlier terms with the major powers, and not stumbling into war with China.

What does Japan do instead? Does the civilian government control the military?

With German encouragement China does a military occupation of French Indo China in 1940-41

That no, Chiang wants to remove colonial treaties on China, Indochina is completely useless to him and his military is also going to have a lot of problems occupying the territories. And the colony is still under the administration of Vichy France.

What else might China do to actively support the Axis?

If the KMT was really keen on the alliance with Germany wouldn't it fight the USSR and Mongolia?

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

What else might China do to actively support the Axis?

If the war continues on schedule into 1940, then participating in Operation Barbarossa by invading Siberia might be on the table.

It's hard to predict whether Chiang would attempt it, and whether the Germans would warn him in advance to maximize timing or whether communications would be too tenuous and Chiang would only start deciding after a beginning of Barbarossa that caught him by surprise, which would definitely impact how effective he could be. Chiang's regime had tight ties to both Germany and the Soviet Union OTL, both of which would be heavily butterflied by the absence of a Japanese threat to China and consequent drive for rapid militarization and acceptance of any possible ally. No Second Sino-Japanese War probably also means no Soviet assistance mission to the KMT, but arms sales for use against warlords might still be a possibility depending on how the diplomatic situation plays out- Stalin disliked Mao, who he viewed as a loose cannon, but didn't necessarily want to entirely abandon the CCP for the KMT. But if Chiang is sufficiently distant from USSR ties, a Chinese invasion tying down Siberian divisions in 1940 could have significant ripple effects on the Battle of Moscow- I'm sure the equivalent scenario, with the Japanese attacking north from Manchukuo has been gamed out before, though I don't remember any specific threads.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

It's hard to predict whether Chiang would attempt it, and whether the Germans would warn him in advance to maximize timing or whether communications would be too tenuous and Chiang would only start deciding after a beginning of Barbarossa that caught him by surprise, which would definitely impact how effective he could be.

If he is pro-German or Hitler sees him as an ally he would be warned, just as Finland was IOTL before Barbarossa.

but didn't necessarily want to entirely abandon the CCP for the KMT

He was very willing to do so, he didn't help the CCP in its struggle for the KMT most of the time and probably viewed it as a lost cause.

But if Chiang is sufficiently distant from USSR ties, a Chinese invasion tying down Siberian divisions in 1940 could have significant ripple effects on the Battle of Moscow-

No:

The ‘Siberian’ Divisions and the Battle for Moscow in 1941-42 | Operation Barbarrosa

And the Battle of Moscow was won by recruiting new troops, the troops brought from other fronts are not that relevant.
There's than also the fact that while in the middle of fighting the Germans the Soviets were more than capable to invade Iran with more troops than the British and had troops sitting in the Far East and CA for the entire war.

I'm sure the equivalent scenario, with the Japanese attacking north from Manchukuo has been gamed out before, though I don't remember any specific threads.

IMO the Japanese wouldn't perform very well since they're ill equipped to fight in Siberia and as the KMT army is worse I'll let you imagine how well an invasion of (Outer) Mongolia and Outer Manchuria will go.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

No:
The ‘Siberian’ Divisions and the Battle for Moscow in 1941-42 | Operation Barbarrosa

You are aware that this source specifically states that 42 divisions were taken from the Soviets Eastern districts and took part in the defence against Barbarossa, yes? It's an excellent article debunking the myth that the specific myth that Richard Sorge's information was critical for causing the Soviets to release these troops for transfer, but 42 divisions is actually a very significant force, and even a fraction of these troops being tied down absolutely would change the course of several battles in the course of Barbarossa.

He was very willing to do so, he didn't help the CCP in its struggle for the KMT most of the time and probably viewed it as a lost cause.

Bo Gu and Otto Braun would argue with the idea that the USSR didn't help the CCP. Of course, Stalin several times encouraged the CCP to form a United Front with the KMT and pursue political growth before military victory, but that's not at all the same thing as supporting the KMT over the CCP.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

You are aware that this source specifically states that 42 divisions were taken from the Soviets Eastern districts and took part in the defence against Barbarossa, yes? It's an excellent article debunking the myth that the specific myth that Richard Sorge's information was critical for causing the Soviets to release these troops for transfer, but 42 divisions is actually a very significant force, and even a fraction of these troops being tied down absolutely would change the course of several battles in the course of Barbarossa.

The article specifies that the most important thing were the recruits and not the transferred divisions; the divisions which were diverted for a good part don't come from the fronts where China is most likely to attack.
And could you please explain me how the Germans can realistically take Moscow? To me it seems more like a Nazi dream than something achievable and even of they were to succeed they would just be much more exposed to Soviet counter-offensives.

Bo Gu and Otto Braun would argue with the idea that the USSR didn't help the CCP. Of course, Stalin several times encouraged the CCP to form a United Front with the KMT and pursue political growth before military victory, but that's not at all the same thing as supporting the KMT over the CCP.

Stalin did that but very little was done to prevent a collapse of the CCP in the encirclement campaigns or after that and IIRC the Third Encirclement Campaign was doing pretty well until resources had to be diverted to counter the Japanese in Manchuria.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

The article specifies that the most important thing were the recruits and not the transferred divisions; the divisions which were diverted for a good part don't come from the fronts where China is most likely to attack.

I do not know what you now think you are arguing. To make my position clear: 42 divisions which were stationed in 1940 to defend the Soviet Unions eastern borders were transferred west to defend its western borders in 1941, and those 42 divisions were important- not out of proportion to their numbers or anything, but in an army of 303 divisions, 42 divisions is 14% of the Red Army. Not having a significant portion of those forces available, thanks to a need to counter a Chinese offensive, would have been a significant detriment to the Red Army in fighting the Germans- not necessarily decisive, but likely increasing Soviet territorial losses relative to OTL more than a trivial amount (the article you cited suggests that a lot of these forces ended up in front of Leningrad, for example. It's loss would probably not be decisive, but an alt-WW2 where the Soviets lost Leningrad in the winter of 1940 would be very different than OTL).

Stalin did that but very little was done to prevent a collapse of the CCP in the encirclement campaigns or after that and IIRC the Third Encirclement Campaign was doing pretty well until resources had to be diverted to counter the Japanese in Manchuria.

Other than invading China I really don't see what plausible increased aid Stalin could offer other than advisors, small amounts of weapons smuggled past KMT or warlord territory (since the CCP did not control any portion of the Sino-Soviet border until after WW2) and relatively small amounts of money (since the USSR was not exactly flush with cash themselves in the 1930s). None of that was likely to make the difference against the encirclement campaigns- which doesn't mean that Stalin viewed the CCP as hopeless, or that he wouldn't include tolerance of their activities in his negotiations with Chiang in this TL's 1930s. (OTL Soviet aid to the KMT didn't begin before the Xi'an incident meant that the KMT and the CCP were at least nominally allies as part of the Second United Front, though that timing was dictated by the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War.)

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

I do not know what you now think you are arguing. To make my position clear: 42 divisions which were stationed in 1940 to defend the Soviet Unions eastern borders were transferred west to defend its western borders in 1941, and those 42 divisions were important- not out of proportion to their numbers or anything, but in an army of 303 divisions, 42 divisions is 14% of the Red Army. Not having a significant portion of those forces available, thanks to a need to counter a Chinese offensive, would have been a significant detriment to the Red Army in fighting the Germans- not necessarily decisive, but likely increasing Soviet territorial losses relative to OTL more than a trivial amount (the article you cited suggests that a lot of these forces ended up in front of Leningrad, for example. It's loss would probably not be decisive, but an alt-WW2 where the Soviets lost Leningrad in the winter of 1940 would be very different than OTL)

Not all of these divisions come from where the Chinese and Soviets will fight, several divisions were marching either from before Barbarossa or in its (very) early stages and what do you think is more important to Stalin, Moscow or Vladivostok?
Plus it's not like Stalin left the Far East defensless IOTL either, he would need no more troops than IOTL (if anything he would need less) to hold the line against the Chinese instead of Japanese.

Other than invading China I really don't see what plausible increased aid Stalin could offer other than advisors, small amounts of weapons smuggled past KMT or warlord territory (since the CCP did not control any portion of the Sino-Soviet border until after WW2) and relatively small amounts of money (since the USSR was not exactly flush with cash themselves in the 1930s). None of that was likely to make the difference against the encirclement campaigns- which doesn't mean that Stalin viewed the CCP as hopeless, or that he wouldn't include tolerance of their activities in his negotiations with Chiang in this TL's 1930s. (OTL Soviet aid to the KMT didn't begin before the Xi'an incident meant that the KMT and the CCP were at least nominally allies as part of the Second United Front, though that timing was dictated by the start of the Second Sino-Japanese War.

In your post you were suggesting like Stalin would have a problem getting over the CCP's loss to heal relations with the KMT which seems the less Stalinian thing he could do. The OP specifically mentions that Chiang is able to beat up Mao.

 

[walmart]

China is in no condition to join Germany without a 19th pod.

 

[Sport25ing]

Something I found a while back:
"Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek’s son Chiang Wei-kuo received military training in Germany from 1936 – 1939. He received no special treatment and was by all accounts, a good soldier and popular with his German comrades. Chiang participated in the annexation of Austria and was due to lead a panzer unit in the planned invasion of Poland, but was recalled to China before that."

Also from Chiang Wei-kuo wikipedia page

"Wei-kuo commanded a Panzer unit during the 1938 Austrian Anschluss as a Fähnrich, or "sergeant officer-candidate",[8] leading a tank into that country. Subsequently, he was promoted to Lieutenant of a Panzer unit and awaited the Invasion of Poland. Before he was given the mobilization order, he was recalled to China to assist the war effort against the invading Japanese forces."

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Why would the KMT align itself with Germany? It seemed to me like Chiang was much more worried about China itself than some anti-communist crusade.

That the KMT did work with Germany during the 1920s and through 1937. One of the long term goals of the KMT was to terminate the "Unequal Treaties' & end the Concessions and other baggage. Germany had lost its enclave and colonial privileges post Great War. German businesses and other leaders were then open to trade in China on a free market basis, & sought economic advantages. Then there was that the KMT was a Asian version of a Facist/Nationalist party, which put the KMT government more in sympathy with the NSDAP than the Tories of Britan or Republicans of the US. The most visible result of this to the casual observer was that China favored German military equipment over most other nations, and the German army officers and former officers filling staff and training positions in the national Chinese army.

Then there was that the KMT fought a war with the Communists from 1928 through 1948 with a uneasy hiatus 1938-1944 while both fought the Japanese.

That no, Chiang wants to remove colonial treaties on China, Indochina is completely useless to him and his military is also going to have a lot of problems occupying the territories. And the colony is still under the administration of Vichy France.

The objective of the KMT (aside from their own political/economic power) was to restore Chinas domination of the bulk of Asia. French Indo China, Viet Nam, or Annam had been a Chinese province during one of the several Imperial periods, and economically and politically dominated the region during several other periods. Something that has colored their thinking to the present day. Note that in 1945 China did send a army to occupy Hanoi and the surrounding Red River region. It required pressure from both France and the US to get them to leave.

The economic incentive is to control the Mekong Rice production. During the late 19th and early 20th Century the Mekong had become a immense Rice factory, exporting across Asia. Ir had become important in balancing crop failures and grain shortages across the region. Second was control of the Rubber production of the western Mekong and eastern Cambodia. Those vast plantations had become a lucrative business for the French investors. Like the Japanese the Chinese have a economic incentive to take control of the region.

If the KMT was really keen on the alliance with Germany wouldn't it fight the USSR and Mongolia?

Within its capacity it could. Depends on how much strategic sense Chaig & the other Chinese leaders had. I expect they would put priority of eliminating Maos enclave, but something might be tried. That does not guarantee success of any sort. It might go badly, but its not impossible they would try.

 

[thaddeus]

This derives from the multiple discussions I've seen about Japan as a Allied nation in WWII. The question/s revolve around how useful China is as a Axis supporter in WWII & the negative attention it receives (if any) from the Allies.

IDK @Carl Schwamberger it seems China-Japan would be in some sort of conflict, that would be nearly impossible to avoid? I had scribbled an alt.history for a successful KMT defense of Wuhan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wuhan, with a modest German air corps instead of the historical Soviet one. that kind of scenario more closely tracks the historical timeline but with a significantly improved position for the KMT (albeit not as favorable as you have described)

in either your speculation or mine, it seems the endemic corruption of the KMT is going to limit any military contribution outside their borders. OTOH China could offer almost limitless resources, German Gen. von Seeckt had outlined a policy of cooperation with both China and the USSR to allow access to the resources of both.

 

[sekai]

China indeed had fundamental collaboration with Germany up until 1937-38. Plus Chiang is a fan of Mussolini and Fascism.

On the other hand any offensive outside of border is clearly out of table. Or do you want Japan to collaborate with China as well? That would require a much, much, earlier PoD.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

he would need no more troops than IOTL (if anything he would need less) to hold the line against the Chinese instead of Japanese.

Given that the Sino-Soviet border included areas which the Japanese never held OTL, meaning that the total length of the border the Soviets would have to defend would be substantially longer, plus the fact that unlike the Japanese in 1940- who always had to maintain forces against the Chinese as well as whatever was assigned to attack Russia- Chinese forces would be able to commit against Russia in an undivided fashion if they so chose, I do not agree with that assessment.

In your post you were suggesting like Stalin would have a problem getting over the CCP's loss to heal relations with the KMT which seems the less Stalinian thing he could do.

I would suggest that even if the Shaanxi province CCP enclave were entirely eliminated and Mao himself killed- from the Soviet perspective the CCP would still exist so long as party cadres continued to operate across China, and the question of whether supporting the KMT while they actively suppress the CCP isn't counterproductive would remain an open one for the Soviets. And Shaanxi entirely eliminated is somewhat beyond my reading of the KMT being

able to concentrate on suppressing Maos residual enclave

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

IDK @Carl Schwamberger it seems China-Japan would be in some sort of conflict, that would be nearly impossible to avoid? I had scribbled an alt.history for a successful KMT defense of Wuhan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wuhan, with a modest German air corps instead of the historical Soviet one. that kind of scenario more closely tracks the historical timeline but with a significantly improved position for the KMT (albeit not as favorable as you have described)

in either your speculation or mine, it seems the endemic corruption of the KMT is going to limit any military contribution outside their borders. OTOH China could offer almost limitless resources, German Gen. von Seeckt had outlined a policy of cooperation with both China and the USSR to allow access to the resources of both.

On the other hand any offensive outside of border is clearly out of table. .

Agree in general. Raids and skirmishes are one thing, but weak transportation and a army weak in support makes them a weak threat to the Soviet Maritime, Far Eastern, Siberian, or Trans Ural districts. Neither is the Chinese Navy going to hie off and bomb Pearl Harbor, invade the Balikapan oil refineries, or trap MacArthur in Bataan.

Perhaps the most damaging thing the Chinese can do for the Axis is eject the Europeans from their Concessions and abrogate the associated treaties. As with the Japanese the Germans cn force the French to stand down in Indo China and allow the Chinese army to march in. China can also host German merchant raiders as Japan did, and Axis submarines. Maybe someone else can think of other petty affronts China might make to the Allies?

 

[James Ricker]

Japan isn't stupid.
They would make a deal with the Allies to get a free hand in China.
With no Pacific theater, Nazi Germany is in a lot more trouble.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

That the KMT did work with Germany during the 1920s and through 1937. One of the long term goals of the KMT was to terminate the "Unequal Treaties' & end the Concessions and other baggage. Germany had lost its enclave and colonial privileges post Great War. German businesses and other leaders were then open to trade in China on a free market basis, & sought economic advantages. Then there was that the KMT was a Asian version of a Facist/Nationalist party, which put the KMT government more in sympathy with the NSDAP than the Tories of Britan or Republicans of the US. The most visible result of this to the casual observer was that China favored German military equipment over most other nations, and the German army officers and former officers filling staff and training positions in the national Chinese army.

Then there was that the KMT fought a war with the Communists from 1928 through 1948 with a uneasy hiatus 1938-1944 while both fought the Japanese

I agree that there are reasons to do so but fully joining the Axis doesn't seem like something he wanted to do, it's true that IOTL he had relatively close ties with the USSR but I find it unlikely he joins the Nazis in their crusade against the Soviets.

The objective of the KMT (aside from their own political/economic power) was to restore Chinas domination of the bulk of Asia. French Indo China, Viet Nam, or Annam had been a Chinese province during one of the several Imperial periods, and economically and politically dominated the region during several other periods. Something that has colored their thinking to the present day. Note that in 1945 China did send a army to occupy Hanoi and the surrounding Red River region. It required pressure from both France and the US to get them to leave.

In 1945 they were collecting the Japanese's surrender in Indochina since France was unable to do so, the KMT leadership didn't want Indochina IOTL because they had to fight the CCP but nothing suggests that it had ambitions to conquer Indochina in the same way the Japanese did, only the Chinese commander there wanted to establish control over the area.

The economic incentive is to control the Mekong Rice production. During the late 19th and early 20th Century the Mekong had become a immense Rice factory, exporting across Asia. Ir had become important in balancing crop failures and grain shortages across the region. Second was control of the Rubber production of the western Mekong and eastern Cambodia. Those vast plantations had become a lucrative business for the French investors. Like the Japanese the Chinese have a economic incentive to take control of the region.

Having incentives and invading the territory of one of your allies are two very different things, Chiang should know how much difficulties he would have in holding Indochina when his army is far inferior to the Japanese one and I doubt he has the crazy Japanese plan of conquering all of the European colonies.

Within its capacity it could. Depends on how much strategic sense Chaig & the other Chinese leaders had. I expect they would put priority of eliminating Maos enclave, but something might be tried. That does not guarantee success of any sort. It might go badly, but its not impossible they would try.

The OP specifies that the CCP is supressed since the KMT doesn't have to divert resources to fight the Japanese.

Given that the Sino-Soviet border included areas which the Japanese never held OTL, meaning that the total length of the border the Soviets would have to defend would be substantially longer, plus the fact that unlike the Japanese in 1940- who always had to maintain forces against the Chinese as well as whatever was assigned to attack Russia- Chinese forces would be able to commit against Russia in an undivided fashion if they so chose, I do not agree with that assessment.

You mean the pro-Soviet Xinjiang? Or the rebellions in Inner Mongolia?
China has a already a lot of problems internally and the KMT army is much worse than the Japanese one, plus it's not like the Soviets will care more about defending Mongolia than about the ongoing fight with the Germans.

I would suggest that even if the Shaanxi province CCP enclave were entirely eliminated and Mao himself killed- from the Soviet perspective the CCP would still exist so long as party cadres continued to operate across China, and the question of whether supporting the KMT while they actively suppress the CCP isn't counterproductive would remain an open one for the Soviets. And Shaanxi entirely eliminated is somewhat beyond my reading of the KMT being

If the KMT succeeds in this the CCP is effectively dead and at worst has a few agitators in the countryside, not a relevant force at all.

 

[Taco Shark]

You mean the pro-Soviet Xinjiang?

And reminder to others, Sheng Shicai was a member of the CPSU and only defected to the KMT in 1942 when Stalingrad was occurring and it seemed the Germans were on the brink of defeating the Soviets.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

If the KMT succeeds in this the CCP is effectively dead and at worst has a few agitators in the countryside, not a relevant force at all.

Military force is not the only way to exist as a relevant force, and the fervency with which Chiang tried to purge the communists from the cities- all the way up to the end of KMT rule- was not because he was jumping at shadows.

You mean the pro-Soviet Xinjiang? Or the rebellions in Inner Mongolia?

I meant the Muslim, anti-communist, armies from Xinjiang that were some of the KMT's best troops OTL and Mongolia, where the Khuvsgul Uprising was less than a decade old at this point, and Stalin had just purged two Soviet premiers in a row- the latest, Amar, shortly after the beginning of Barbarossa, yes.

 

[thaddeus]

IDK @Carl Schwamberger it seems China-Japan would be in some sort of conflict, that would be nearly impossible to avoid? I had scribbled an alt.history for a successful KMT defense of Wuhan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wuhan, with a modest German air corps instead of the historical Soviet one. that kind of scenario more closely tracks the historical timeline but with a significantly improved position for the KMT (albeit not as favorable as you have described)

in either your speculation or mine, it seems the endemic corruption of the KMT is going to limit any military contribution outside their borders. OTOH China could offer almost limitless resources, German Gen. von Seeckt had outlined a policy of cooperation with both China and the USSR to allow access to the resources of both.

Agree in general. Raids and skirmishes are one thing, but weak transportation and a army weak in support makes them a weak threat to the Soviet Maritime, Far Eastern, Siberian, or Trans Ural districts. Neither is the Chinese Navy going to hie off and bomb Pearl Harbor, invade the Balikapan oil refineries, or trap MacArthur in Bataan.

Perhaps the most damaging thing the Chinese can do for the Axis is eject the Europeans from their Concessions and abrogate the associated treaties. As with the Japanese the Germans cn force the French to stand down in Indo China and allow the Chinese army to march in. China can also host German merchant raiders as Japan did, and Axis submarines. Maybe someone else can think of other petty affronts China might make to the Allies?

it is an interesting subject, we would have to decide where Japan is in all this? if they are not in Manchuria (as suggested in the OP) or they have been dealt a major setback in the Second Sino-Japanese War (per my scenario.)

if China is not battling to reclaim parts of the country from Japan for the duration of the 1930's, would they want to expand to the limits of the Qing Dynasty? they certainly would be in a much better military position than maybe we have allowed in this discussion.

IDK that under such an expansive scenario China would have much of a rationale to join the Axis, albeit they could make a greater contribution. under my scenario, for a Chinese victory (of sorts) at Wuhan, where Japan was reaching their limits, there would be some expansion of the Sino-German cooperation to a military alliance.

KMT China could "aid" the Vichy regime if Japan moved on Indochina, assuming Japan on the outs with the Axis. the KMT might move to gain full control over Sinkiang (Xinjiang) during any German invasion of the USSR.

do not think it is a foregone conclusion Germany would invade the USSR if they had continued trade with a viable KMT China, that is such a lucrative arrangement it might prompt some continued dealings with the Soviets to facilitate reaching there under wartime blockades?