Consequences of Paris falling in 1914

[Devvy]

Hey, I've been reading a load of threads about the possibility of the Germans either capturing or sieging Paris quickly after the start of the World War 1 - a lot get bogged down in the specifics of the 1914 military manoeuvres, but I'd rather skip that part. Let's assume it does - at the very least, Paris is less than ideal as the economic/logistical/political centre of France, whilst iron and coal fields of northern France now lie in German hands. My assumption is that France falls back, whilst refusing to sue for peace for at least a few months, before realising in 1915 that the game is up. The Germans don't need to advance further in to France - they've destroyed the French ability to battle with Germany, granted Germany a freehand to assist Austria-Hungary against Russia in the east, and all the potential client states in the east.

My question is...what happens next, on a global scale?

I'd guess France is forced to completely accept Alsace-Lorraine as German territory (and maybe some extra areas of Lorraine?), whilst Luxembourg also becomes part of the German Empire. Italy might want a slice of Nice or Savoy?
Given that the UK declared war on Germany due to the trampling of Belgium's neutrality, I guess Germany might use the restoration of Belgium to get the UK to cease war? Although I also see German desires to Belgium to become a German protectorate/vassal of some kind.

Overseas by 1915, SW Africa is basically taken by South Africa, and Kamerun is all but taken by Anglo/French forces. Tanganyika is still German though. Given that they have no way to force the UK to peace, is there any point in taking French/Belgian colonies given a) they can take on a ton of conquests in eastern Europe and b) they have to potentially battle an unfriendly Royal Navy to get to the colonies if negotiations go poorly.

Can the British stomach Italian desires for Tunisia, given that it may place a stranglehold on shipping through the Med to the Suez? And then, I guess this pushes France further in to the arms of Britain, and potentially lays the ground for closer UK/Netherlands too?

And lastly, a war which is basically over by late 1915 leaves the door open for almost any possibility in Ulster and by extension Ireland as it's prior to the Easter Rising.

 

[Devvy]

Nobody with any words of wisdom to chip in with?

 

[naraic]

Germany's war aims from 1914 are well known

The September program.

Septemberprogramm - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Germany would attempt to force this program. I doubt they would manage to put it through in full.

 

[James Ricker]

France would have a severe morale problem and the government would fall not to mention several top generals being replaced. that could cause some chaos in the chain of command that the Germans would take advantage of. France would not surrender after the fall of Paris but would probably surrender shortly afterwards

 

[Devvy]

Germany's war aims from 1914 are well known

The September program.

Septemberprogramm - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Germany would attempt to force this program. I doubt they would manage to put it through in full.

Yeah I've seen those; various sources describe the Septemberprogramm as anything from an unofficial wish list to the official war aims. But either way; is German wishes for Belgium realistic given the German actions in Belgium being the casus beli for the UK, and are overseas colonies realistic to want given the UK's role on the seas and being on the other side?

 

[Catspoke]

Paris falling means the Germans win in the west, its almost all of french industry, mining etc. Effectively means German control of the Channel coast from LeHarve to the east. The British and French are going to have less divisions in the field in France allowing the Germans to go on the defensive and concentrate in the east. (and with Italy neutral also the Austrians are going to concentrate on the east and Serbia). 1915 seems correct for the Germans to put the east in order as in OTL, but more effectively here.

1915 is messy for the Allies with Germans/Austrians doing better in the east. I expect with Italy even just neutral, the Austrians will prevent the evacuation of the Serbian army.

There may be butterflies around the Ottomans, Gallipoli etc.. but assume that plays out like OTL.

By February 1916 the Allies are making peace. There is no pathway to victory. The Germans are not going to do USW if they are clearly winning.

Smart terms for Germany: (an easy peace)
The Germans will pick up the whole of Belgian Congo, plus Portuguese Angola, even if Portugal is not in the war yet, the Germans just take it.
The Germans pick up Luxembourg and Liege from Belgium.
Austrians have a 2 year occupation of Serbia, can arrange the government favorably.
French and British pay huge indemnity.

I just don't see what good it does to pick up French or Russian European territories long term. They won, broke up the circle around them, propped up the Austrians, secured a colonial empire.

 

[Abd ar-Rahman II]

As long as the russian is still in the war i don’t think they will surender . The war is their last chance to remain a major powers

 

[Geon]

Paris falling means the Germans win in the west, its almost all of french industry, mining etc. Effectively means German control of the Channel coast from LeHarve to the east. The British and French are going to have less divisions in the field in France allowing the Germans to go on the defensive and concentrate in the east. (and with Italy neutral also the Austrians are going to concentrate on the east and Serbia). 1915 seems correct for the Germans to put the east in order as in OTL, but more effectively here.

1915 is messy for the Allies with Germans/Austrians doing better in the east. I expect with Italy even just neutral, the Austrians will prevent the evacuation of the Serbian army.

There may be butterflies around the Ottomans, Gallipoli etc.. but assume that plays out like OTL.

By February 1916 the Allies are making peace. There is no pathway to victory. The Germans are not going to do USW if they are clearly winning.

Smart terms for Germany: (an easy peace)
The Germans will pick up the whole of Belgian Congo, plus Portuguese Angola, even if Portugal is not in the war yet, the Germans just take it.
The Germans pick up Luxembourg and Liege from Belgium.
Austrians have a 2 year occupation of Serbia, can arrange the government favorably.
French and Brit, ish pay huge indemnity.

I just don't see what good it does to pick up French or Russian European territories long term. They won, broke up the circle around them, propped up the Austrians, secured a colonial empire.

If Paris falls I agree with the assessment here. French morale will be completely gone as a result and the cultural, economic, governmental center of the country will be in Germany's hands. As far as the French are concerned it's "game over." The British however just might continue to fight on where they could (Africa, the Balkans, the Middle East). France is out of the war but maybe Germany makes some conciliatory moves to Britain, such as no war indemnities, partial withdrawal from Belgium, maybe other moderate concessions might allow the UK to bow out of the war graciously.

 

[Devvy]

Smart terms for Germany: (an easy peace)
The Germans will pick up the whole of Belgian Congo, plus Portuguese Angola, even if Portugal is not in the war yet, the Germans just take it.
The Germans pick up Luxembourg and Liege from Belgium.
Austrians have a 2 year occupation of Serbia, can arrange the government favorably.
French and British pay huge indemnity.

I just don't see what good it does to pick up French or Russian European territories long term. They won, broke up the circle around them, propped up the Austrians, secured a colonial empire.

By and large I agree with you, take Luxembourg and Liege, withdraw from Belgium. France pays indemnity.

How on earth does Germany a) justify taking Angola from a non-combatant who isn't remotely involved, or b) get Britain to pay any kind of indemnity, when the Brits can just laugh and tell Germany to "jog on mate". Germany has absolutely no leverage to demand anything from the UK?

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

By and large I agree with you, take Luxembourg and Liege, withdraw from Belgium. France pays indemnity.

How on earth does Germany a) justify taking Angola from a non-combatant who isn't remotely involved, or b) get Britain to pay any kind of indemnity, when the Brits can just laugh and tell Germany to "jog on mate". Germany has absolutely no leverage to demand anything from the UK?

The leverage would probably be establishing a naval presence on the Belgian coast. Would you rather have Germans in Antwerp or Dar es Salaam? Or is it worth a few million quid to keep Ostende & Zeebrugge demilitarised?

 

[raharris1973]

The Germans are not going to do USW if they are clearly winning.

Why does it always have do be a reactive desperation move? Why can't it be an arrogance move?

And if they bring the Americans in, so what, it's just another Navy, not an Army they have to worry about, nor any place closeby the Americans can put it.

Despite the great colonial/naval leverage Britain has over Germany, Germany doesn't have to be generous in peace talks. It has leverage of its own. Occupying valuable European territories that Britain lacks existing means to retake, and possessing a great many more British PoWs than Britain possesses German PoWs.

 

[Catspoke]

Why does it always have do be a reactive desperation move? Why can't it be an arrogance move?

Good question. I am going on the OTL back and forth almost painful decision making of whether to do unrestricted submarine warfare or not. There were a lot of players in the decision making with different opinions. It seemed more they just chose poorly vs. arrogance.

In this TL with Germany controlling much of the French Channel ports (including up to Le Harve maybe). The Germans might be using their light craft in the channel in a more overt naval war so the commerce war may be less relevant here.

However, If Britain was effectively alone against the Central Powers in 1917, still maintaining a blockade and Germany was struggling through a 1916 winter like OTL I could perhaps see Germany resorting to USW to try end it if no other means appeared available.

 

[Catspoke]

How on earth does Germany a) justify taking Angola from a non-combatant who isn't remotely involved, or b) get Britain to pay any kind of indemnity, when the Brits can just laugh and tell Germany to "jog on mate". Germany has absolutely no leverage to demand anything from the UK?

The Germans were making moves in Angola even before an actual state of war existed between them and Portugal.

German campaign in Angola - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Since the Germans/British had at least talked about a split up of the Portugese colonies before the war (even if the British were just playing around). It would be awfully easy for the British to allow the Germans to continue to go aggressive on the Portuguese vs giving up their own stuff.

 

[Devvy]

However, If Britain was effectively alone against the Central Powers in 1917, still maintaining a blockade and Germany was struggling through a 1916 winter like OTL I could perhaps see Germany resorting to USW to try end it if no other means appeared available.

If the UK is still blockading the CP by 1916, I think both sides would want to get it over. The UK must know by then that it's pointless to hold the blockade, nothing's changing. Some kind of honourable draw, whilst de facto recognising the German control of Europe and the UK control of the seas.

The Germans were making moves in Angola even before an actual state of war existed between them and Portugal.

German campaign in Angola - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Since the Germans/British had at least talked about a split up of the Portugese colonies before the war (even if the British were just playing around). It would be awfully easy for the British to allow the Germans to continue to go aggressive on the Portuguese vs giving up their own stuff.

Thanks, always something new to learn on this forum!

 

[Mikey]

I think broadly, it's hard to see the fall of Paris as anything other than France losing the war, in a quick and humiliating fashion. There may be some ongoing fighting from the regime, but it's not going to be a major factor in the war if the government is in exile. I'm not sure exactly how they would continue to organize and pay an army, or equip it, or purchase munitions.

The Germans would have been victorious on the Western Front, and ready to turn east. The British would be able to maintain a blockade, but they'd have few opportunities to really join the fight on the ground, if there was an active fight at all. This is early enough that I think the French defeat would empower British politicians who didn't want to get involved in the first place.

You'd probably have a lot of pressure for some kind of peace conference, now heavily constrained by conditions on the ground.

 

[TxAggie]

Britain isn't done fighting if France falls. They're not getting boots on the ground in western Europe again (I'm just assuming whatever forces they had were lost in the fighting for Paris), but they can easily keep up their blockade.

Say Russia collapses along a similar timeframe as OTL, with extra German reinforcements from the West hastening it on a bit - late 1916, early 1917. The Bolsheviks still sign Brest-Litvosek. With a harsh peace in France and a harsh peace in the East, Germany can afford to cut an easy peace with Britain and still dominate Europe. And if France had fell and Russia fell or was close to it, I think the British would gladly accept one.

 

[Mikey]

Britain isn't done fighting if France falls. They're not getting boots on the ground in western Europe again (I'm just assuming whatever forces they had were lost in the fighting for Paris), but they can easily keep up their blockade.

Say Russia collapses along a similar timeframe as OTL, with extra German reinforcements from the West hastening it on a bit - late 1916, early 1917. The Bolsheviks still sign Brest-Litvosek. With a harsh peace in France and a harsh peace in the East, Germany can afford to cut an easy peace with Britain and still dominate Europe. And if France had fell and Russia fell or was close to it, I think the British would gladly accept one.

They certainly have the ability to keep up the blockade, but I'm not sure what the purpose of it would be, and it would be exerting a lot less pressure if Germany is able to demobilize more farmers to keep up domestic food production, while also able to continue overland imports from the Dutch or occupied France.

 

[TxAggie]

They certainly have the ability to keep up the blockade, but I'm not sure what the purpose of it would be, and it would be exerting a lot less pressure if Germany is able to demobilize more farmers to keep up domestic food production, while also able to continue overland imports from the Dutch or occupied France.

I don't think it would take much of a deal at all to talk Britain out of the war at that point, but the blockade could be kept up very cheaply in terms of bodies not coming home, and Britain might figure it worth the effort it it helped keep eastern Europe out of German hands. Once Russia looks done though, they're done.

 

[Devvy]

So here's my complete guess at some kind of peace conference, circa late 1915/1916 when the UK and France have no delusions left about keeping up the fight/blockade.
- German free hand in the east, assuming some similar Brest-Litovsk Treaty.
- "Luxembourg" (including Belgian Luxembourg) to become part of German Empire, Belgian Liege ceded to Prussia.
- Alsace-Lorraine ceded permanently to Germany, French agreement of status.
- Belgian Congo and French Equitorial Africa becomes German?
- Britain turns blind eye to German annex of Angola?
- Germany agrees to allow Netherlands to remain independent and neutral too; possibly with Flanders ending up Dutch again to avoid German control of ports?
- SW Africa is ceded by Germany (it's well under South African control by now), as I don't think there's anything of real value there, if the UK recognises above - "German Central Africa" will be far larger (as well as giving Germany an east-west axis across Africa), as well as de facto complete control of eastern Europe.
- New Guina also ceded by Germany for same reason as above; it's already under Australian control and the other side of the world.

Germany a big winner in central Africa and east Europe, Britain tidies up some Dominion colonies / German outliers which are already taken.
Britain avoids explicitly German ports on the opposite side of the Channel.
Probably some kind of naval agreement, but not really an area I know anything about.

 

[Catspoke]

So here's my complete guess at some kind of peace conference, circa late 1915/1916 when the UK and France have no delusions left about keeping up the fight/blockade.
- German free hand in the east, assuming some similar Brest-Litovsk Treaty.
- "Luxembourg" (including Belgian Luxembourg) to become part of German Empire, Belgian Liege ceded to Prussia.
- Alsace-Lorraine ceded permanently to Germany, French agreement of status.
- Belgian Congo and French Equitorial Africa becomes German?
- Britain turns blind eye to German annex of Angola?
- Germany agrees to allow Netherlands to remain independent and neutral too; possibly with Flanders ending up Dutch again to avoid German control of ports?
- SW Africa is ceded by Germany (it's well under South African control by now), as I don't think there's anything of real value there, if the UK recognises above - "German Central Africa" will be far larger (as well as giving Germany an east-west axis across Africa), as well as de facto complete control of eastern Europe.
- New Guina also ceded by Germany for same reason as above; it's already under Australian control and the other side of the world.

Germany a big winner in central Africa and east Europe, Britain tidies up some Dominion colonies / German outliers which are already taken.
Britain avoids explicitly German ports on the opposite side of the Channel.
Probably some kind of naval agreement, but not really an area I know anything about.

Pretty good. Smart Germany would take this very Bismarck like peace. Is Germany that smart??????
(Though I think its possible Germany gets Southwest Africa back, and whatever Pacific possessions have been taken by the Japanese and Commonwealth. Otherwise maybe its not a good enough German victory and they would want more Euro territory.

I think Tirpitz would be all over a German fleet (which hadn't done much yet especially in this ATL war) being sent out to take back the colonies, so its a political thing, the Germans over value these place. If the Germans could be compensated with a valuable place where Germans could settle like Morocco then maybe they part with those places.) Southwest Africa is at least dry enough to be settled by Germans.