East Germany as a North Korea analogue

[LeX]

IOTL, East Germany was probably the best-developed country in the Eastern bloc, and on paper it was an open society that had rejected the evils of Nazism and endeavored to rebuild the country as a humane and advanced socialist state. Throughout the Cold War it tried to maintain this image, despite being better known for its repression, e.g. the Berlin Wall and Stasi.

North Korea, meanwhile, is in some ways on the opposite end of the spectrum, having from the mid-1950s onwards taken a hypernationalist, quasi-religious approach to socialist ideology. As the decades went on it made little effort to compete materially and economically with South Korea, instead creating a red fascist absolute monarchy to maintain power at all costs.

Lately I've been wondering if a similar regime could have developed in East Germany, or if its particular conditions completely precluded the possibility of this happening. Below are some thoughts to open the discussion:

Pros:
- East Germany had a socialist government that was not shy about using repressive methods to stay in power. The Stasi was well-staffed and well-equipped.
- In general, the enthusiasm for actually "making socialism" work in East Germany was stronger than in, say, Poland, where socialism was always seen as a veil for Russian imperialism. I can't remember the source but Soviet military planners regarded the East German army as mostly reliable while the Poles were rated as likely to defect once war with the West began.
- The country was technologically advanced and maintained a (relatively) high-quality military force. East Germany made use of civil nuclear power, and probably could have developed nuclear weapons if it really wanted to.

Cons:
- East Germany was founded on a rather different idea of socialism from North Korea. Promoting the nationalism and extreme isolation practiced by the DPRK might not have been palatable for the East Germans or the Soviet Union, especially given the recent memory of World War II and Nazism.
- Unlike North Korea, which is directly connected to China and Russia, East Germany is separated from its only reliable source of outside aid — Russia — by hundreds of km of sea, assuming the end of the Cold War goes much like it did IOTL. Also, even Russian life-saving aid is not guaranteed, unlike with North Korea which has always been regarded by China as a useful buffer state/political lightening rod against the West.
- East Germany also has a central location in Europe that would put it under greater political pressure without the Eastern bloc to back it up, unlike North Korea which is a peripheral state next to China.
- East Germany has less land and probably fewer natural resources than North Korea, making a German version of Juche even less workable.
- As Korea was an extremely poor country at the beginning of North Korean rule, any improvement in the lives of its people or national strength could be easily attributed in propaganda to the guiding light of the Kim leadership. East Germany was part of one of the most advanced countries in Europe, already fully literate, and had a well-known modernity separate from communist rule. This could make drastic attempts to build a totalitarian society less successful.
- There was no charismatic/extremely dictatorial leader in East Germany IOTL, and the political climate may not have allowed for one to take power given Germany's recent experience with a charismatic dictatorial leader.

(Note: Inspired by this thread on a closed inter-German border:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/closed-inner-german-border.547423/)

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

IOTL, East Germany was probably the best-developed country in the Eastern bloc, and on paper it was an open society that had rejected the evils of Nazism and endeavored to rebuild the country as a humane and advanced socialist state. Throughout the Cold War it tried to maintain this image, despite being better known for its repression, e.g. the Berlin Wall and Stasi.

North Korea, meanwhile, is in some ways on the opposite end of the spectrum, having from the mid-1950s onwards taken a hypernationalist, quasi-religious approach to socialist ideology. As the decades went on it made little effort to compete materially and economically with South Korea, instead creating a red fascist absolute monarchy to maintain power at all costs.

Lately I've been wondering if a similar regime could have developed in East Germany, or if its particular conditions completely precluded the possibility of this happening. Below are some thoughts to open the discussion:

Pros:
- East Germany had a socialist government that was not shy about using repressive methods to stay in power. The Stasi was well-staffed and well-equipped.
- In general, the enthusiasm for actually "making socialism" work in East Germany was stronger than in, say, Poland, where socialism was always seen as a veil for Russian imperialism. I can't remember the source but Soviet military planners regarded the East German army as mostly reliable while the Poles were rated as likely to defect once war with the West began.
- The country was technologically advanced and maintained a (relatively) high-quality military force. East Germany made use of civil nuclear power, and probably could have developed nuclear weapons if it really wanted to.

Cons:
- East Germany was founded on a rather different idea of socialism from North Korea. Promoting the nationalism and extreme isolation practiced by the DPRK might not have been palatable for the East Germans or the Soviet Union, especially given the recent memory of World War II and Nazism.
- Unlike North Korea, which is directly connected to China and Russia, East Germany is separated from its only reliable source of outside aid — Russia — by hundreds of km of sea, assuming the end of the Cold War goes much like it did IOTL. Also, even Russian life-saving aid is not guaranteed, unlike with North Korea which has always been regarded by China as a useful buffer state/political lightening rod against the West.
- East Germany also has a central location in Europe that would put it under greater political pressure without the Eastern bloc to back it up, unlike North Korea which is a peripheral state next to China.
- East Germany has less land and probably fewer natural resources than North Korea, making a German version of Juche even less workable.

(Note: Inspired by this thread on a closed inter-German border:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/closed-inner-german-border.547423/)

Have Erich Honecker travel to China and NK and become obsessed with the authoritarianism and xenophobia there. He'd likely rehabilitate some Nazi war criminals, begin a nuclear program, and militarize society while increasing the powers of the NVA. Like you said, though, I can see the KGB couping him and putting a more orthodox Communist in power.

 

[Byzantion]

Problem might be the demographics. To stay afloat ineeds a stable population. Also to keep its armed forces and working force it needs a decent amount of young people. A German ,North Korea' only possible with a Communist USSR around.

 

[Blyatnik]

I could see an attempt, but the DDR lacks many of the advantages that North Korea has in keeping itself alive. The advantages of its own, in return, are probably not enough to keep it afloat or even alive.

-The DPRK has very favorable geography, both geopolitically and in terms of natural defenses. It is backed up to the north by two great powers that prefer it as a buffer and do not want its territory. It's located on a peninsula, and is very mountainous, making natural defense much easier.
-The DDR has nothing of the sort. It is primarily and overwhelmingly located on the North European Plain, bordering three NATO/Western-friendly nations starting in 1990. Like North Korea, they have a smaller population than all three states bordering them, but unlike NK, all those states are not friendly/much more willing to invade.
-However, they probably won't have famines, or famines that are as crippling, and their military is much better than NK's. Again though, these advantages are not enough to keep it going, because they still can't keep up their technology and military as rapidly as the rest of their neighbors. NK can't either, but China and Russia are right there to supply more modern equipment and political backing.
-Russia may not be willing or able to support it. Assuming everything else goes the same throughout the 1990's, Russia is a mess and Yeltsin's club of thieves might not be willing to support the DDR with everything it needs. Furthermore, knowing the era, half of the shipments will go straight into the pockets of Yeltsin's cronies or into a western bank with a horrible ROI. Not to mention the political ramifications of supporting the last bastion of the Iron Curtain in a supposedly "free and reformed" Russia. This might cause the west to be outwardly hostile to Russia from the very start, instead of politically supportive and 'only' economically predatory. Having sanctions and isolation slapped on Russia in the early 1990's and not letting up will mean that everybody has a bad time.
-NATO invasion. I highly doubt that West Germany will simply let East Germany stay independent, they consider that to be their territory. Since NATO will agree with them, its possible there is a NATO intervention sometime in the 1990's. While it probably won't be as easy as Iraq or the American bombings in Yugoslavia, it will not be a war that the DDR can win. Especially if they just take the tried and true tactic of leveling German cities to the ground before moving in, which the Americans would probably do.

 

[CHKeeley]

Probably worth stating that Juche itself is the product of specific conditions in the DPRK generated by the absolute devastation of the Korean War and even then did not constitute a fully-developed break with Marxism-Leninism and the complete isolation we see today until the decay and collapse of the Eastern Bloc in the 1980s and 1990s. Framing the state of the DPRK as a disconnected “choice” by a ruling autocrat tends to ignore that the policies we see are reactions of an elite conditioned by its history and its internal ideological worldview (developed through specific line struggles within the WPK during the Cold War).

To get a similar situation in the DDR, you need more than just Honecker deciding he likes North Korea or something. You would need a Ceausescu-like personality that establishes himself as independent of Chinese or Soviet influence (hard to do in DDR), have some sort of extremely traumatic devastation of the socialist state which justifies a policy of massive military mobilization 24/7 and inclines the society towards an absolute and unwavering siege mentality (difficult without a Third World War), and you have to have the DDR survive the collapse of the Eastern Bloc without falling itself and see all its lines of trade and credit completely dry up which causes a sharp inward turn, etc. etc. And even that ignores other factors like the history of Korean isolationism that justifies Juche internally - something entirely lacking in the German context

 

[Hvalrossen]

Problem might be the demographics. To stay afloat ineeds a stable population. Also to keep its armed forces and working force it needs a decent amount of young people. A German ,North Korea' only possible with a Communist USSR around.

East Germany suffered a large outflow of emigrants in OTL. Which did undermine it's economy in the short-term, and it's economic potential in the long-term. If the Inner German border had been completely sealed since the end of WW2 around 16 years before the Berlin Wall was built in OTL. It would also be easier, and more feasible if all of Berlin had been assigned to the Soviet occupation zone.

IOTL, East Germany was probably the best-developed country in the Eastern bloc, and on paper it was an open society that had rejected the evils of Nazism and endeavored to rebuild the country as a humane and advanced socialist state. Throughout the Cold War it tried to maintain this image, despite being better known for its repression, e.g. the Berlin Wall and Stasi.

North Korea, meanwhile, is in some ways on the opposite end of the spectrum, having from the mid-1950s onwards taken a hypernationalist, quasi-religious approach to socialist ideology. As the decades went on it made little effort to compete materially and economically with South Korea, instead creating a red fascist absolute monarchy to maintain power at all costs.

Lately I've been wondering if a similar regime could have developed in East Germany, or if its particular conditions completely precluded the possibility of this happening. Below are some thoughts to open the discussion:

Pros:
- East Germany had a socialist government that was not shy about using repressive methods to stay in power. The Stasi was well-staffed and well-equipped.
- In general, the enthusiasm for actually "making socialism" work in East Germany was stronger than in, say, Poland, where socialism was always seen as a veil for Russian imperialism. I can't remember the source but Soviet military planners regarded the East German army as mostly reliable while the Poles were rated as likely to defect once war with the West began.
- The country was technologically advanced and maintained a (relatively) high-quality military force. East Germany made use of civil nuclear power, and probably could have developed nuclear weapons if it really wanted to.

Cons:
- East Germany was founded on a rather different idea of socialism from North Korea. Promoting the nationalism and extreme isolation practiced by the DPRK might not have been palatable for the East Germans or the Soviet Union, especially given the recent memory of World War II and Nazism.
- Unlike North Korea, which is directly connected to China and Russia, East Germany is separated from its only reliable source of outside aid — Russia — by hundreds of km of sea, assuming the end of the Cold War goes much like it did IOTL. Also, even Russian life-saving aid is not guaranteed, unlike with North Korea which has always been regarded by China as a useful buffer state/political lightening rod against the West.
- East Germany also has a central location in Europe that would put it under greater political pressure without the Eastern bloc to back it up, unlike North Korea which is a peripheral state next to China.
- East Germany has less land and probably fewer natural resources than North Korea, making a German version of Juche even less workable.
- As Korea was an extremely poor country at the beginning of North Korean rule, any improvement in the lives of its people or national strength could be easily attributed in propaganda to the guiding light of the Kim leadership. East Germany was part of one of the most advanced countries in Europe, already fully literate, and had a well-known modernity separate from communist rule. This could make drastic attempts to build a totalitarian society less successful.
- There was no charismatic/extremely dictatorial leader in East Germany IOTL, and the political climate may not have allowed for one to take power given Germany's recent experience with a charismatic dictatorial leader.

(Note: Inspired by this thread on a closed inter-German border:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/closed-inner-german-border.547423/)

I think that the most important question when asking if whether East Germany could have been an analogue of North Korea. Would be asking what it the most important characteristics of North Korea. Since East Germany cannot be identical to North Korea. The most important traits of North Korea that an East German analogue could share is in my opinion.

• Extreme isolationism: North Korea is famously known as the hermit kingdom for it's peoples isolation from the wider world.
• State enforced ideology:

East Germany could have had both these characteristics, and I think most would say they did have them albeit to more moderate degree than North Korea.

I think that the earlier East Germany experiences a point of divergence from OTL, the higher it's resemblance to North Korea could be. If the POD is in the 1980s I cannot see East Germany become a North Korea analogue. It would instead be more similar to Cuba, Vietnam or China. In order for East Germany to resemble North Korea the POD would have to be around the end of WW2.

The Soviet Union and it's German communist proxies would have to close the border from almost day one. This would have strengthened East Germany while weakening West Germany compared to OTL. East Germany should also have pursued a more autarkic economy than in OTL, which would still be far more open than that of North Korea. The East German leadership would also have to show more independence from the Moscow line. Despite all these changes East Germany would still be less sovereign than North Korea simply due to the legacy of WW2. It would not regain it's full sovereignty until the collapse of the Eastern Block. The fall of the Eastern Block would be a radicalizing experience for the East German regime.

East Germany would likely be on the receiving end of sanctions. It's former allies in the Eastern Block would not stand by it anymore. While policymakers in the West would try to crack the regime by imposing sanctions. Sanctions that would likely be supported by the United Nations. No country would veto it. The United States, the United Kingdom and France would probably lead this effort. While China and the newly founded Russian Federation would seek to remain on the West's good graces.

However, over time the sanctions on East Germany could fade away in contrast to those on North Korea. If East Germany is perceived as a less aggressive state outside it's borders. West Germany would also be split between hardliners, and peaceniks who would try to reach out to East Germany. Hoping to normalize relations, and slowly reform the eastern twin. It is therefore not likely that East Germany would experience the same destitution as in North Korea. The first years after the fall of communism in Eastern Block countries would be the most difficult ones. These years would see large economic disruptions, diplomatic emnity and domestic unrest.

Should West Germany reach some kind of trade agreement with East Germany. Something that I think is very much possible. Then it is likely to become East Germany's largest trading partner. It could also potentially lead to distortions in the West German economy as East German products would be exported as West German products. West German companies would also have ties to contractors in the East.

I don't think that post-Soviet Russia would be engage in much trade or diplomacy with East Germany. It's relations with East Germany would have been disrupted by the shift to capitalism, and at face value democracy. Russia would also be too poor and too distracted to give East Germany any aid. However, overtime Russia may be more willing to engage in trade with East Germany than most other former communist states, especially East Germany's neighbors. Russia reaching out to East Germany could be a result of it's own isolation from the West.