Fourth Shore Scenario

[DuQuense]

What IF
Italy starts the Forth Shore project in the late '20's instead of OTL's Mid 30's.
This butterflies into no Invasion of Ethiopia. Instead OTL's Ethiopian Resources, flow into Libya.
This leads to more Development in Libya than in OTL.

By 1935 the population of Libya reaches 2/3 Italian, and by 1940 3/4.

However a part of this is due to Italian Ruthlessness, with the Italians using the same tactics against the Libyans as the did OTL against the Ethiopians.
[Massive Ethnic Cleaning via Poison Gas on protesting Villages]

Due to this the British/French turn against Italy, and Italy joins the Axis-same as OTL.

Assume that North Africa/Italian Campaign goes close to OTL.
Minor changes on the Horn due to Ethiopia not in the war.
Eritrea doesn't get folded into Ethiopia. More Troops for Libyan Fighting. Etc.
But by late 42 ~early 43 Britain/Allies are in Control of A Libya that Has a 3/4 Italian population.
It is also More Developed than OTL.

?How does Britain treat Libya?
?What happens when Italy flips sides in 1944?
?What Happens Post War?




I knew that getting a 2/3 ~3/4 Itailian Libya is Slighty ASB, but that is the Scenario, Lets stick to the Post War in our answers. PLEASE

 

[Germaniac]

Well if its made a part of Italy by the time the war ends, and the vast majority of the population is Italian it will be rather hard to take away the region without some serious ethnic cleansing. I would assume the northern coast will be given to Italy and allowed to stay, however Fezzan will be given to France or Britain.

This will have more implication on Algeria, and the Italians and French may develop closer ties around that time as each will be attempting to hold onto their northern african territories.

 

[Atlantic Friend]

Postwar thoughts :

With demographics changing rapidly in the 1940s-1950s, methinks Italy gets its own Algerian War, and will have to deal with the return of its settlers back home when it proves impossible to resist international pressure and to combat Libyan insurgents (particularly as emergent Arab states around it start providing support to the insurrection and the USSR lends support to the insurgents).

The large Italian population will probably prove as much a liability as a boon - it will encourage Italian politicians to refuse negotiations early, then to engage in heavy repression, and finally it will make it difficult to organize the repatriation of the nationals.

 

[Germaniac]

Postwar thoughts :

With demographics changing rapidly in the 1940s-1950s, methinks Italy gets its own Algerian War, and will have to deal with the return of its settlers back home when it proves impossible to resist international pressure and to combat Libyan insurgents (particularly as emergent Arab states around it start providing support to the insurrection and the USSR lends support to the insurgents).

The large Italian population will probably prove as much a liability as a boon - it will encourage Italian politicians to refuse negotiations early, then to engage in heavy repression, and finally it will make it difficult to organize the repatriation of the nationals.

The difference is that in this scenario the Italian population is 3/4 the population of Libya, unlike France.

 

[Alratan]

Without the Abyssinian cris Italy will remain aligned with the west, and the 2nd World War won't happen as iOTL.

 

[MikeTurcotte]

I know that you asked us to stay more focused on post-war, but I think this has wartime implications as well. The Italians were sensitive enough over Libya in OTL; I think that if it is 75%+ ethnic Italian, they will agonize over it even more. Going with the idea that the African campaign is pretty much as IOTL, then I think they will seek an armistice even sooner. Say in the early summer of 1943. If they Italians bug out by then, then the impact on the Russian campaign, the war in the Med after that, the Italian campaign, etc., are all subject to major butterflies.

Mike Turcotte

 

[Alien and Sedition Bat]

I know you asked for people to stick to postwar, but I can't because your scenario doesn't make sense to me. Why would the Italians continue poison gas towards the tribes, when it had already accomplished its goals in the 1920s? Why would the French, themselves brutal to their colonial populations, care? Why would the British really care? The French and British cared about Ethiopia, a little bit, because it was an independent nation and League member being invaded, but it was only rhetorical caring. I just can't see anything in this scenario that would have driven the Italians into the arms of Hitler. On the contrary, having suddenly doubled the size of their country they would be concentrating on building it up and keeping it. A good reason for neutrality.

This would be all the more so if the Italians had managed to settle enought Italians in Libya in 15 years to be two-thirds of the country. This would have been such a huge undertaking, and would continue to be such as of 1939-40, that the Italians wouldn't have the resources to spare for an offensive war.

 

[Cuāuhtemōc]

Not to be offensive but your scenario does not make much sense, OP. Italy only pissed Britain and France when it invaded and conquered Ethiopia, which put them towards a more pro-Axis stance. I do not think Italy will go to war if their resources are only going to developing Libya. That also butterflies any aid to Franco as well.

They would be neutral.