German War (1974-80)

An idea I had a while back and am now just getting around to writing. It deals with civil unrest in West Germany following the end of the war in Vietnam.


Chapter 1

In the halls of the Kremlin in May 1975, the leaders of the Soviet Union and German Democratic Republic met to discuss further operations in the Federal Republic of Germany. East German General-Secretary Erich Honecker pressed for further involvement and incitement in his turbulent western neighbor. For the past eight years, economic decline and political unrest left the Federal Republic open to revolution from within. Soviet General-Secretary Leonid Brezhnev gave approval to the undermining of the West German government in 1971, following the general strike and riots in the Ruhr.

Honecker proposed on May 3 to accelerate activities in the west. He proposed a plan of operation that would see the government in Bonn fall within five years. As with any activity to undermine a Western government, the Soviet position was one of caution. In 1973, the CIA backed a coup in Chile to topple a legitimate and democratically elected socialist in Chile. On in Moscow could only imagine how the United States would react to an actually attempt to seize power by force in a member of NATO.

Honecker believed the threat was minimal. On April 30, 1975, Saigon and all of South Vietnam fell to the North without minimal American intervention on behalf of the Saigon regime. Most of the American effort was spent in evacuating its embassy staff and ‘lap dogs of the capitalists’ as Honecker put it. More than a decade involvement in Vietnam had worn down the American public’s enthusiasm for war. American attempts to intervene in a revolution in the Federal Republic would lack any public support.

At this point, Brezhnev reminded the East German leader that the North Atlantic Treaty had far stronger language than any treaty between the United States and the Republic of Vietnam. If Berlin attempted the same move as Hanoi, Honecker would find the American response overwhelming. Honecker was no fool and had no plans to send East German soldiers across the border. His plan called bringing down the American puppets in Bonn.

The plan to replace the regime in Bonn with a neutral socialist state appealed to the Soviet Union. With the Federal Republic rendered neutral, it along with Sweden, Austria and Yugoslavia would add another layer of buffering between the West and the Soviet Union. Along with increasing Soviet security it would crack the NATO alliance and lower American prestige in the world’s eyes further. The proposal earned Soviet endorsement under the stipulation that whatever happens in the Federal Republic could not be traced to the East. The American public might drag its feet at internal problems in West Germany but any indication of the red tide flowing across Europe might illicit a different reaction.

Unknown to Brezhnev or the KGB at the time was the true goal of Honecker. Toppling the regime in Bonn was the first step. His ultimate goal was the reunification of Germany under the governance of the Democratic Republic. With World War II over only thirty years, the memories of a unified Germany were still fresh in the mind of Soviet citizens. Even under a socialist regime, a unified Germany would not be welcomed by Moscow. Even a separate German socialist state in the west as a member of the Warsaw Pact was undesirable as it would give the impression to the West of encroachment.

Even if Moscow gave Honecker’s secret plan its blessing, the reaction in the West of a reunified Germany under a totalitarian regime would not be met with friendship. In the West, Berlin viewed France as the biggest obstacle towards Germany reunification. The last war was equally fresh in the minds of the politicians in Paris and the people of Alsace and Lorraine. The Low Countries were not considered a threat (especially considering the unionized army in the Netherlands) and Honecker believed he could handle London. As for Washington; Honecker clearly overestimated the war-weariness of the America public.

Ch1 isn't over and will be added to at a later date.
 
Doesn´t look very plausible. Which civil unrest in West Germany? It seems you want to construct out of thin air a Germany/Vietnam analog.
 
The problems in the Federal Republic that the Democratic Republic sought to exploit began in 1968. An inferno of protest swept over the continent in that year, and not all in the West. However, unlike Czechoslovakia, the Western government had to tend with their dissidents in a more civilized and gentle manner. The nature of the protests across West Germany ranged from anti-nuclear to general anti-American.

Some of these protests were orchestrated by East German agents in the West. Their propaganda included pieces such as in the event of a world war, the Americans would fight the war to the last German. The fact that the Soviets would have done the same was conveniently omitted. Tension between Washington and Moscow throughout the 1960s caused great concern to the millions of Germans caught in the crossfire in the event of the Cold War turning hot.

A majority of the protests were turned against the West German government. During the 1950s and early 1960s, the West German economy grew at a phenomenal rate, even when its allies in Europe stumbled. Recession in the mid-1960s, followed by oil embargoes against the West in 1967 brought the Wirtschaftswunder to an end. As joblessness decreased, reactionaries in various Europeans capitals struggled to protect their native industries. By 1968, the demand of German goods in Europe slid and factories began to lay off workers.

Cries of corporate greed rang at the front ranks of the protests. Hundreds of thousands of workers were jobless while the owners and executives retained their positions. While greed did factor into the equation in some cases, a great deal of the layoffs were a result as companies attempting to survive in cut-throat conditions. If the businesses were not blamed then the government was for allowing such conditions to exist.

One of the largest waves of protest struck in 1968 as students at universities across West Germany protested against conditions at home, conditions abroad, the Vietnam War, the Right-Wing influence and every other grievance they could find. Since the unification of Germany back in 1871, the universities of Germany were rather conservative and the sudden shift to the Left and Far-left led many in Bonn to suspect their cousins in the East at playing a role in the protests.

The case of the East German agents turned out to be another example of ‘it’s not what you know but what you can prove’. West German intelligence expended a great deal of resources trying to prove Berlin’s involvement in the 1968 Protests. The German protests did not turn violent such as protests in France and the United States, but the Bundestag still reacted harshly to the protests.

One of the many grievances of the protesters was the passing of the Emergency Acts, a modification to the Federal Republic’s constitution that allowed the government to suspend rights in the face of natural disasters, uprisings and nuclear war. Left-wing newspapers instantly compared the Emergency Act with the 1933 Enabling Act that granted dictatorial powers to the German Chancellor. Any student of history how well that actions worked for Germany.

With its passing, the students added ‘resisting the return of Nazism’ to their many goals. Their fears turned out to be largely unjustified as the coalition of Right and Center-Right parties controlling the Bundestag lacked any single strongman to take personal rule. Nor did any of the politicians wish it. They saw the Stalinist regime in Bonn as the threat. Unfortunately, echoing McCarthyism, some members of the Bundestag saw spies and agents everywhere, starting with the Students’ Movement.
 
East Germany and the USSR are in a world of pain.

What? At this point the imbalance in conventional military power between NATO and the Warsaw Pact is skewed in the favor of the commies more-so then at any point in the Cold War since 1947. NATO war planning still has not adjusted to no longer rely on nukes, despite officially having rejected Massive Retaliation more then a decade ago, and the Vietnam War had terrible effects on American military morale and equipment acquisition. On the other side, the rot from Soviet economic stagnation is still almost a decade away from impacting the Soviet Armed Forces capability.

Unless your referring to nukes, in which case I should note that the West dies just as horribly as the East. Of course, since any conflict between the East Germans and West Germans means war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact and that inevitably leads to nuclear war, I find it unrealistic that the Soviets would allow anything more then stirring up trouble.
 
Unless your referring to nukes, in which case I should note that the West dies just as horribly as the East. Of course, since any conflict between the East Germans and West Germans means war between NATO and the Warsaw Pact and that inevitably leads to nuclear war, I find it unrealistic that the Soviets would allow anything more then stirring up trouble.

I don't have a planned invasion of West Germany beyond East German agents and maybe a few volunteer pilots.
 
Consider me interested, till now I cant see something unrealisitc. So your timeline is: GDR government supports the extremist wing of the 68er movement more to create a puppet in West Germany. Bear in mind that the OTL attempts from the Kundschafter des Friedens where not really successful, the dislike for the real existing communism in East Germany prevented that.
One advice: Stage a false flag operation to radicalise the broad 68er movement.
 
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Consider me interested, till now I cant see something unrealisitc. So your timeline is: GDR government supports the extremist wing of the 68er movement more to create a puppet in West Germany. Bear in mind that the OTL attempts from the Kundschafter des Friedens where not really successful, the dislike for the real existing communism in East Germany prevented that.
One advice: Stage a false flag operation to radicalise the broad 68er movement.

I'll take useful criticism. That's part of the point in posting these outlines. If there's something I overlooked, I would like to here about it so I can apply it to the rewrite.



Volunteer Pilots?

Oh, is this going to lead to a civil war?

Yeah, West Germany is going to be a bit of a mess in the late 70s. Though I think revolution/rebellion/inserrection might be a better description than outright civil war.
 

Pangur

Donor
We have got the economic woes of western Europe as one trigger and oil embargo against the West in 1967 (was this the 1973 oil embargo of the OTL in this t/l/) to set up as one of the whys of the unrest. That never came to pass in our T/L so why in this one?

It would not be just the BfV but the BND as well as the CIA etc who would be watching and looking at what is going on (not just NATO but Israel as well - if they saw unrest growing in Germany they would be drawn to it ). I would be very surprised if tEast Germany was able to hide all of this. Add to that the Soviets are in on at least some of the plan.

Either way I look forward to heading the next updates
 
I'll take useful criticism. That's part of the point in posting these outlines. If there's something I overlooked, I would like to here about it so I can apply it to the rewrite.
Count on me, but be not surprised when you hit a wall. The scenario you outlined is nearly imposible to write. West Germany is not one of second frontlines of the cold war. It is the frontline. When some trouble starts here, it is nearly certain that the waves hit others, too. Thats why I am curious how you can keep the CIA, BND and all the other inteligence services from not discovering the GDR plot. And than I am a bit skeptical of the SU response. Try to overthrow the FRG gorvernment is likely to start a world war and so the SU leadership will rather tell Honecker to forget it, othewise they find another puppet. So you better find good reasons for it. Better to tell the SU nothing from a GDR point of view.
Yeah, West Germany is going to be a bit of a mess in the late 70s. Though I think revolution/rebellion/inserrection might be a better description than outright civil war.
That would certainly involve a NATO commitment.

We have got the economic woes of western Europe as one trigger and oil embargo against the West in 1967 (was this the 1973 oil embargo of the OTL in this t/l/) to set up as one of the whys of the unrest. That never came to pass in our T/L so why in this one?
One idea is to make the trouble even more hard and I mean 30ies level style hard. This is one way to keep other powers meddling into the whole affair...or even more.

It would not be just the BfV but the BND as well as the CIA etc who would be watching and looking at what is going on (not just NATO but Israel as well - if they saw unrest growing in Germany they would be drawn to it ). I would be very surprised if tEast Germany was able to hide all of this. Add to that the Soviets are in on at least some of the plan.
True dat!
 
If I were the DDR I'd be secretly supporting West German neo-Nazi groups and spreading fascist propaganda. I'd be implementing some cosmetic reforms in East Germany at the same time.

The US will continue sticking to West Germany, but I can't imagine the French or British being keen to support an FRG apparently full of unrepentant Nazis.
 
We have got the economic woes of western Europe as one trigger and oil embargo against the West in 1967 (was this the 1973 oil embargo of the OTL in this t/l/) to set up as one of the whys of the unrest. That never came to pass in our T/L so why in this one?

The embargo is something like that. My PoDs tend to run along a range instead of a single event.
 
Oh, it will. Give it time.

The problem is that unlike Vietnam, mess with Germany or btw any of the various european goverment in this manner is like play with highly unstable explosive.
Basically somekind of sheninghan like supporting local terrorist organization or financing green or others but this kind of 'interference' cannot be permitted and frankly even if the various intelligence organization only suspect commie involvement...it's enough, expect that two begin to play this game.

And more economic hardship for Europe mean more economic problem for the URSS as much of Soviet money in the 70's come from oil and if her client cannot permit too much well...
 
Are German elections like those in Britain? I know it's parliamentary, but can the Bundestag be dissolved and new elections ordered easily or would it require more effort. I'm thinking some upheaval in West Germany might cause something like that, but not sure if it would be legal.
 
The 1968 Protests ended with little violence and even few concessions to the protestors. The General Strike of June 1969 could not make a similar claim. Budgetary constraints forced a wage cut in many German cities and businesses. Predictably, the workers responded by walking out. Six cities in North Rhine-Westphalia ground to a complete halt as all unions joined together in a week long work stoppage.

Reaction from the general public not involved in the strikes was mixed. On one hand, they support the union members’ right to demand better conditions but on the other hand, the snarl caused to the infrastructure of North Rhine-Westphalia was a great inconvenience. What was not known at the time, and only found out after various intelligence agencies infiltrated the protest movement was that this derailing of daily life was exactly for what planners in Berlin hoped.

One event in 1969 that was not planned by East Germany was the spontaneous march on Bonn by nearly a quarter of a million striking protesters. The influx of people brought the gears of the capital grinding to a halt. A few in the Bundestag feared a serious uprising and made plans to call out the German Army to defend Bonn. NATO installations in the German state were all put on high alert, though the high command in Brussels did not anticipate a revolution.

There was no June Revolution. The Bundestag agreed to some concessions to the strikers, enough to mollify the crowd. Reactionary elements within the government pushed for stronger legislation to allow the government to maintain order and prevent another march on the city. The next march of angry workers might not end so peacefully. The attitude of Bonn was torn between reforms and restrictions.

Not all actions in June ended without bloodshed. Steel workers in Düsseldorf were so enraged by a proposal to cut wages and benefits that they stormed the mill and took control of the plant. They refused to leave the steel mill until management agreed to their demands. The mill owners were willing to negotiate with the union, but refused to meet all of their demands especially under duress.

Refusal to leave the property prompts a response from the city of Düsseldorf. Police were called out to remove the strikers by force, which resulted in the inevitable clash. The clash began with fists only to end in bloodshed as someone in the crowd drew forth a revolver and fired at the police, who in turn fired back. With the gunman, and five workers who had the misfortune of standing near him dead, it may never be known for certain why the gunman opened fire. Documents released in the 1990s revealed that the East German government had connections with the strikers and possible supplied them with smuggled fire arms.
 

Tyr Anazasi

Banned
Are German elections like those in Britain? I know it's parliamentary, but can the Bundestag be dissolved and new elections ordered easily or would it require more effort. I'm thinking some upheaval in West Germany might cause something like that, but not sure if it would be legal.

At first I am very sceptical to a civil war in West Germany. The SPD was ruling and in these times they had best connections to the Unions. Furthermore it is the time of Willy Brandt, who was loved by many. Also wage cuts were nearly ASB in these times. Indeed the unions were so strong to achieve wage risings, even if that were not really possible (at least with the state employees). Also strikes in Germany are only allowed to fight for the rights of the workers, but not for political reasons.

Furthermore I think in case of a German civil war, in which the East is going to intervene, the West German forces will no longer restrain and act accordingly meaning one had ww3 very soon!

That being said to the legal situation: The Bundestag is elected by the people in free, fair and direct elections. Half of the members come from a list, the others from the election districts (I cut it short here).

The Bundespräsident can dissolve the Bundestag in two cases:

1. Art. 63 IV GG: If the chancellor resigns and no chancellor is elected in 3 attempts (also at the beginning of a legislature period)

2. Art. 68 GG: If the chancellor asks for confidence and does not get the majority AND the chancellor asks for a disbanding of the Bundestag because of the political instability.
 
The SPD was ruling and in these times they had best connections to the Unions. Furthermore it is the time of Willy Brandt, who was loved by many. Also wage cuts were nearly ASB in these times.
This! The German leadership at the time was a "Communist Efforts to Create a Revolutionary Situtation" worst nightmare: Popular Social Democrat who also is taking a hard-line against Communism. Also back in those days "Published Opinions" wasn't as left-wing as it is now. Propaganda would have been counteracted and not just by big business.

Indeed the unions were so strong to achieve wage risings, even if that were not really possible (at least with the state employees). Also strikes in Germany are only allowed to fight for the rights of the workers, but not for political reasons.
Dito. Political Strikes are banned in Germany unlike France. "Beamte" are not allowed to strike at all.
Also employers can't just unilaterally cut wages. They'd have to wait until the contract expires and then propose that at renegiotiation talks. Which would then lead to strikes once talks break down, but only at those employers. No nationwide strikes or sympathy strikes. If the Union Leadership decided to do it anyway in defiance of German law and decades of custom - not to mention memories of how the political instabilty of Weimar was also caused by frequent political strikes - and the Middle-Class would turn against them and non-useful-idiot Union members would quit by the droves, because Germany bans Closed Shops as well BTW.

Thats why I am curious how you can keep the CIA, BND and all the other inteligence services from not discovering the GDR plot. And than I am a bit skeptical of the SU response.
Forget about those Western Agencies, there's no way the GDR leadership would be ablo to keep a plan involving this many people secret from the KGB. After which the Soviet leadership would be having nightmares about a reunited Socialist Germany pulling another PRC (not saying that's realistic, but they were quite paranoid about Germany) and read Honecker the Riot Act or just have him ousted to make an example.
 
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