Without world war to spur it along, rocket development might have remained in the hands of amateur rocket societies and philanthropists like the Guggenheims. I would expect rocket engines to be quickly applied to aircraft (which would probably attract at least some military interest). In such a timeline, rocketry would develop on an aviation base, reusable almost from the start instead of being expendable ammunition.
How ambitious can alternate space histories get?
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oh now that's an interesting idea! spaceflight starting with air-launched rockets and crewed spacecraft like the X-15 or an air-launched dynasoar,,,
[ALTERNATE UNIVERSE 1990]
the Orbital Science Corporation is pushing the bounds of spaceflight with their revolutionary "Ground-Launched" Pegasus rocket having just reached orbit. This follows the failure of the privately funded traditional Air-launched rocket of Conestoga.
I think one of the aspect which people often ignore in the space race are economics. The space race was pushed by having two big countries who was able and willing to put a lot money into space travel to brute force it while the technology was still immature. So the big question is to ask how do the economy look in alternative history.
I think a space race in CP win WWI would be interesting. In that would we could likely see a multi tier space race. Germany, AH and UK are big enough economies to compete with USA and USSR, while France and Japan will be strong second tier players. Germany and AH will likely integrate their programs to some extent, while UK without WWII will still deal with the decline of their empire but do so on more manageable basis [1] and as such still have the resources to throw in the space program.
[1] losing India, but likely keep a strong control over the Persian Gulf and its oil production, and have several Dominion (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia) stay economic and military integrated with the UK.
I think a space race in CP win WWI would be interesting. In that would we could likely see a multi tier space race. Germany, AH and UK are big enough economies to compete with USA and USSR, while France and Japan will be strong second tier players. Germany and AH will likely integrate their programs to some extent, while UK without WWII will still deal with the decline of their empire but do so on more manageable basis [1] and as such still have the resources to throw in the space program.
[1] losing India, but likely keep a strong control over the Persian Gulf and its oil production, and have several Dominion (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and Malaysia) stay economic and military integrated with the UK.
The technology is still immature, and the economics are still against space travel. The paradigm just hasn't changed that much since the 60s. The cost to put a human in orbit has only gone down by a factor of two—and that's if Musk is honesty about his numbers.
Yes, but at the same time our economy have grown, the fact that knight of fortune like Musk is able to get investment and send rocket up is a sign of a maturing industry, to say nothing about the fact that he has competition from other private actors. Even if SpaceX fails it will have had a lasting impact. People should not ignore that just because it have become fashionable to hate on Musk just because he’s a giant ass.
Or worse, people thinks that massive destruction of mindboggling amounts of lives and resources are prerequisites for more space tech.
The thing is even SpaceX is and was heavily dependent not only on Government money but specifically government launch contracts and that essentially hasn't changed. (Yet, maybe) SpaceX literally didn't even have a rocket at all when the first NASA contracts began to come in and that money was the only thing keeping the doors open, (Musk's words) at the time.
It took several decades to build up a 'civilian' launch market and that's never been especially lucrative and that does not look to really change any time soon. In any timeline its going to be the government who first and foremost have to push things into being and without some type of "McGuffin" reason for a huge surge in public space support that 'push' is going to plateau pretty dang fast. OTL no one has really put an effort into figuring out or building the capability to actually do a lot of actual "work" in space so that is still dangerous, difficult and expensive. You really need a plausible "paradigm shift" in how people look and feel about space to turn it into an actual "frontier" type setting where large scale expansion and exploitation can occur.
We're still only 'dabbling' in space.
Randy
Falcon-9/Dragon II is a pretty good system but lacks both destinations (only one currently is the ISS) orbital infrastructure to interact with. Even 'worst case' numbers show enough of a drop in prices to encourage some market growth but not really enough to get the long-awaited "surge" that most space advocates have always promised. (StarLink actually hurts here because it skews the numbers, and not in a good way)
Randy
I think this bit from the next chapter of "Reach For the Skies" (1876 start to the space program) can also apply to today or any semi plausible space program of the modern day:
After the success of a solid rocket reaching almost 10 miles of altitude and returning its instruments safely:
<In 1879> To the Cosmonautics department, the publicity <of the successful launch> was useful, but as Lynn put it, “Baby steps. We’re like a child floating a piece of wood on a mud puddle, and dreaming of crossing the Atlantic.”
Now we're more like that same child lashing a few boards together and braving the local pond...dreaming of crossing the Atlantic.
Reach For the Skies is REALLY forcing technology up under glass, and will have booms and busts.
After the success of a solid rocket reaching almost 10 miles of altitude and returning its instruments safely:
<In 1879> To the Cosmonautics department, the publicity <of the successful launch> was useful, but as Lynn put it, “Baby steps. We’re like a child floating a piece of wood on a mud puddle, and dreaming of crossing the Atlantic.”
Now we're more like that same child lashing a few boards together and braving the local pond...dreaming of crossing the Atlantic.
Reach For the Skies is REALLY forcing technology up under glass, and will have booms and busts.