How would Visigothic Spain develop without the Arab invasions?

Thande

Donor
Note this is not necessarily a 'no Islam' scenario, more one where for whatever reason the Byzantines and Persians manage to contain the initial Arab explosion and they don't get much further than Egypt/Palestine/Mesopotamia. The reason I point this out is to avoid a 'uber-Justinian-type Byzantine Empire just reconquers them' idea: assume Constantinople more than has its hands full dealing with the Arabs.

So, without the Arab invasions or a Byzantine reconquista, how would the culture and structure of Visigothic Spain develop? Would it become perceptibly Germanised, or more like France, with the culture of the Latin majority generally winning out over that of the Germanic overlords?

Or would Spain just be conquered by the growing Frankish empire instead, as the Visigothic kingdom was already declining anyway?
 
Note this is not necessarily a 'no Islam' scenario, more one where for whatever reason the Byzantines and Persians manage to contain the initial Arab explosion and they don't get much further than Egypt/Palestine/Mesopotamia. The reason I point this out is to avoid a 'uber-Justinian-type Byzantine Empire just reconquers them' idea: assume Constantinople more than has its hands full dealing with the Arabs.

So, without the Arab invasions or a Byzantine reconquista, how would the culture and structure of Visigothic Spain develop? Would it become perceptibly Germanised, or more like France, with the culture of the Latin majority generally winning out over that of the Germanic overlords?

Or would Spain just be conquered by the growing Frankish empire instead, as the Visigothic kingdom was already declining anyway?

I'd think the Franks couldn't grab the whole thing although a much larger chunk of Catalonia might stick to France. A Basque Kingdom as well, maybe. And however much the Visigoths manage to keep a grip on, it'll go Latin like France.

IMHO.
 
it may balkanize as there was (if i recall correctly) a lack of centralization, so perhaps we will still see several spanish powers by the middle ages
 
Well, as long as Northwest Africa remains non-Muslim on the long therm, there won't be any serious threat from the south until some strong Romanized Berber state arises (exactly when this happens and how powerful this state will be depends on the butterflies - the worst-case scenario for the Visigoths would be a Berber equivalent of Charlemagne).

And as the Visigothic kingdom was in pretty bad shape during the 8th century, it may very well fall apart as a result of internal strife and Frankish pressure.

I don't think that the Franks will be able to conquer all of Spain, and due to the absence of another powerful and agressive nation in Northwest Africa, it is quite possible that various small states could arise and survive for at least a few centuries.
 
I don't see it falling apart from within, honestly. It wasn't doing so.

There was a big difference between the Caliphate and the Visigothic Kingdom, a difference of "state psychology" or something like that. The Caliph was a religious ruler. The country was dividided in independent-minded emirates that got along because all of them followed the religious dictact of the Caliph. Once that Caliph dissappeared, the emirs pursued their own agenda, as there was nothing to link them aside of religion - and this wasn't eaxct either, as once the Cordovan Caliph was gone they could and did choose different Caliphs in North Africa to follow... spiritually and from the distance, of course. The lack of internal cohesion could be tracked to the same Muslim post-conquest policy of dividing the land between emirs of different ethnic backgrounds (Berbers, Syrians, Yemenis...). Said policy decisively contributed to erase the links between the Muslim provinces and any idea of being part of something between the province and the Umma.

The Visigoths, on the other hand, had the Kingdom. Whatever happened, there would be a kingdom. A local nobleman could rebel, but never with the idea of secceding his piece of land, but with the idea of using his base to take over the throne and the whole kingdom. Isidore of Seville's writings prove that there was some kind of proto-nationalism at the time in the sense that the kingdom existed and would exist, and that the kingdom was based on, and in some sense was, the (Hi)Spania. In this sense they were like the Roman usurpers: They rebelled in Britain of Gaul, but never proclaimed themselves King or Emperor of Britain or Gaul... they wanted to be Emperors of Rome, and Emperor of Rome was the only title worthy of earning. When the Witizans invited the Muslims in, they though they would be mere mercenaries and depart as soon as Rodrigo/Roderic was killed. It was a surprise they didn't. In fact, before going to the Muslims, the Witizans considered but didn't bribe the Byzantines because they remembered that somebody did that a century before and the Romans decided to sit in the southern part of the Peninsula. They talked with the Franks, too, but canceled any talks when they asked for the province of Septimania in return. Who knows, maybe they trusted the Berbers because the Witizans didn't realize or understand that the Berbers were now ruled by the Caliphate and weren't a bunch of independent gold-hungry tribes anymore. In any case, it proved to be a very big mistake.

A Frankish takeover? Impossible I would say. First, because Charlemagne went actually to war against Pagan rulers and nations only, using Christianity as a tool in his favour. That wouldn't work against the Visigoths, who were Catholic. Second, because the Franks lacked any sympathy in Hispania, and were seen as The Enemy with capital letters since Vouillé. The fact that Charlemagne was unable in OTL to establish a frontier on the Ebro despite the divisions between the Muslims (he was invited in by the commanders of Barcelona and Zaragoza) and the lack of identification between the rulers and the people (80% was Christian in "Al-Andalus" at that time, at least) says very little about the Frankish options. If any, the Franks could hope to back a Visigoth rebel and hope to establish an alliance, or to get a peripheric province like the Septimania. But if they tried to conventionally invade the Peninsula, the more they could achieve was to unite the Visigoths against them and fight in a logistic nightmare. In fact, if the Visigoths were on the offensive, they even could play the romanized peoples around Massilia against the Franks (as the Muslims briefly attempted in OTL) because they still remembered the Ostrogothic rule with sympathy.

If any, I can imagine, though, a possible decreasing of centralization and growing feudalization that could reduce the royal role to something ceremonial, as it happened after 900 in France and Germany. But the office of king would still exist, and they probably would still punching each other on the face to achieve it. Unless, who knows, a king named Roderic is able to exploit some big victory in 711 and successfully introduce the hereditary monarchy...
 

Thande

Donor
Thanks for that analysis, Tocho.

Culturally speaking, how would you see the future of such a Spain by, say, 1000?
 
In 554, Granada and southernmost Hispania Baetica were lost to representatives of the Byzantine Empire (to form the province of Spania) who had been invited in to help settle a Visigothic dynastic struggle, but who stayed on, as a hoped-for spearhead to a "Reconquest" of the far west envisaged by emperor Justinian I.

If the Arabs are defeated by the Byzantines and contained, I think that we might well eventually see a future Byzantine expansion into Spain (most likely into what we now call Portugal and Extremadura.

On the Visigoths, assuming the Hundred Years War still happens, may take advantage of the situation to join the side of the House of Valois and Co. and move agains Aquitaine.
 
On the Visigoths, assuming the Hundred Years War still happens, may take advantage of the situation to join the side of the House of Valois and Co. and move agains Aquitaine.

I am not sure there even is a House of Valois if the Visigoths survive. Heck, even Charlemagne could be butterflied :eek:. Remember he was Charles Martel's grandson, and Martel might not have seized power without his victory at Tours.
 

Thande

Donor
Yeah, I think the HYW is too far in the future to assume it still happens, but you could still make the general comment that Visigothic Spain might be expansionist towards Aquitaine in any war of French unification/succession.
 
Thanks for that analysis, Tocho.

Culturally speaking, how would you see the future of such a Spain by, say, 1000?

Well, for starting there would be a single Romanic language spoken in the entire Iberian Peninsula. The key powers would be the King (most likely elected by a diet), the feudal nobility and the Archbishop of Toledo. If rivalry appeared between the King and the latter in the way it happened in OTL between the HRE and the Pope, it is quite possible that the Visigoth capital would have been moved definitely to Reccopolis (or Rexopolis, Royal City, as it was originally named). Culturally the Visigothic kingdom would be ages behind the Caliphate of Cordoba of the same time, but perhaps above the rest of Western Europe. It has been said that the Iberian Peninsula didn't suffer the Dark Ages because rests of classical knowledge survived and were kept by the Visigoths and later revived/reinforced by the Muslims. Seville would be the cultural center of the kingdom, most likely.

In the army, I suppose that the infantry would remain the bulk of the force till the Vikings show up and force them to give more importance to the cavalry*, like it happened in France. Who knows, without those Arabian horses and tactics maybe the Vikings are more successful in the Iberian Peninsula, and are able to take Seville in the 9th century instead of being surrounded and crushed like in OTL. It would be funny if a Rollo equivalent ends receiving a duchy in Galicia.

*This assuming the Muslims are never an issue, though in OTL they made pirate raids as early as the 670s.
 
I know this thread is about a surviving Visigothic Hispania, but you have also stated the presence of the Arab caliphate limited to Egypt and Middle East because of the continued presence of Persia. This implies a continued existence for the Exarchate of Carthage of well.

Is this doomed to fall or can it survive in concert with aid from the Visigoths or Franks, becoming the centre of its own state encompassing the islands of the Western Med ( Sicily and Sardinia anyway, perhaps Corsica) they are likely to have a naval tradition and be a maritime power. Once the Slavs migrate into the Balkans the East Roman Grip will most certainly falter and the Exarchate will have look elsewhere for support to keep the Arabs at bay in Egypt. This assumes of course that the Berbers of North Africa can successfully be converted to Christianity instead of Islam. Would Visigothic Hispania be able to establish a presence in Mauretania once the East Roman garrison in Septa is withdrawn probably back closer to Carthage itself.

Christianity should also be able to make its way accross the Sahara to Timbuktu, Gao, Takrur and Kumbi-Saleh. Though I don't know..without the Arab Calipahate in NW africa would you still have the Trans-Saharan trade as developed. I suspect theat Islam would still be able to make its way to Kanem and Bornu from Egypt, perhaps even to Gao.
 
This is directly related to the timeline I'm working on. The Visigoths won't have to worry about the Arabs because a powerful Egyptian state broke off during the collapse of the East Roman Empire (Byzantinophiles start to foam at the mouth) and will probably be able to bear the brunt of the invasion, as well as the fact that a chaotic Persia and Anatolia provide better targets.

The Visigoths also don't have to worry about the Franks because TTL's version of Clovis turns east instead of west, conquering Germania instead of the Kingdom of Syagrius/Kingdom of Soissons (called Noviodunum in ATL). The current Visigothic king, Roderic, is paranoid about all of the autonomous chieftains on the borders of the kingdom in western Iberia and the western Alps and is pursuing a centralization effort.
 
Then again, i don't know how 'Spanish' the Suevi felt isn't the speed of the Muslim conquest always attributed to internal strife?
 
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