unless they fucked it worse than the USA in Okinawa, there still Ainu and people wouldn't even raise a finger against the soviets as long they don't do something stupid
Because Soviet Hokkaido is literally Asian Sealion
Japan post-Operation Downfall
- Thread starter lucullus
- Start date
Very devestated. I think you'd be looking at a mix of post-war Germany and Poland with an economic standing of OTL Sudan or Yemen.
Parts of the landscape may not be habitable for centuries due to the use of chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. The U.S. after all planned to use nuclear weapons to soften beachead and may even target more cities. The troops would be fighting in the backdrop of nuclear fallout as it was not yet much known in the 1940s.
The Japanese economic miracle is severely delayed or does not happen at all.
Parts of the landscape may not be habitable for centuries due to the use of chemical, biological, and even nuclear weapons. The U.S. after all planned to use nuclear weapons to soften beachead and may even target more cities. The troops would be fighting in the backdrop of nuclear fallout as it was not yet much known in the 1940s.
The Japanese economic miracle is severely delayed or does not happen at all.
I also love how practically all of those people who dismiss Soviet naval capabilities completely ignore the very real Soviet airborne capabilities.
I guess we'd potentially have an Ainu Autonomous ASSR within a Hokkaido Soviet Republic, with Japanese and Russian as their main languages. They'd probably find a way to write the sounds of Japanese in Cyrillic.
Downfall would have directly wrecked the Kanto plain and Kyushu, as the targets of the invasion. This would mean a shift in the Japanese center of political and economic gravity back to the Kansai region, which while devastated by naval mines and bombing would be in far better shape for not having been fought in. Total Japanese fatalities were estimated at the time to be 5-10 million. Add in the famine that’s going to hit in 1946, with an estimated 11 million fatalities, and we can likely see a population drop from 72 million to 50 million.
In summary: devastating, and the country would be in for a long recovery, but not insurmountable.
As for Hokkaido, I’m leaning toward the Soviets being unable to take the island. For one, their plans were never to seize the whole island. For another, they didn’t have the shipping for it - according to Giangreco the Soviets estimated they’d need 12 divisions for the task, but not only could they only spare two, but they didn’t even have enough shipping to move both of them at once. Shumshu also shows that, regardless of the state of Japanese forces up north, they still had teeth.
In summary: devastating, and the country would be in for a long recovery, but not insurmountable.
As for Hokkaido, I’m leaning toward the Soviets being unable to take the island. For one, their plans were never to seize the whole island. For another, they didn’t have the shipping for it - according to Giangreco the Soviets estimated they’d need 12 divisions for the task, but not only could they only spare two, but they didn’t even have enough shipping to move both of them at once. Shumshu also shows that, regardless of the state of Japanese forces up north, they still had teeth.
The Soviets could have taken Hokkaido's keyports. The Soviets had 30 landing craft donated by the U.S. via Project Hula. Five of these were lost during the Kuril Islands campaign. The 25 remaining could theoretically make a run and seize Hokkaido's ports where the Soviets could establish a beachhead.
Now going deeper to Hokkaido is a different question.
I'm thinking something akin to OTL Kuril Islands and Sakhalin.
How were Soviet airborne capabilities like at this period? In theory, those 25 remaining landing craft in the Soviet Pacific Fleet could take keyports providing these have surface warfare cover and aerial cover.
No Nintendo, PlayStation, Pokemon, Yakuza, Resident Evil, and The House of the Dead.
Just to name a few.
The Soviets technically had the sealift to land some forces in the ports of Hokkaido. Holding the entire is a different matter.
By September 1943, they had a total of sixteen airborne divisions. More than enough to take and hold Hokkaido.
How well were their paratroopers? Would it be like Market Garden levels wherein they can amass a huge para drop that would confuse the Japanese defenders?
As for amphibious ops, the Soviets and the Naval Infantry had a few experience in the Baltics, the Black Sea, and the Kurils/Sakhalin campaign.
Or high-speed rail, which, without the Shinkansen, probably goes the way of supersonic airliners or flying cars in this timeline and are probably viewed as science fiction pipedreams (seriously, why build faster trains when they're obsolete as cars and planes have filled their roles, am I right).
Didn't the Europeans already think of that before the Japanese? Yeah I agree without high-speed rail, we may see a MagLev monorail similar to ANNW by @CalBear.
Well, IIRC, the Shinkansen was the first proper high-speed rail network and influenced later high-speed rail in Europe, especially with the common perspective in the 50s being that planes and cars had made railways obsolete.
Then again, South Korea was at one point one of the poorest countries in the world, poorer than most African countries or Burma/Myanmar after the Korean War, so I see no reason why Japan could drag itself back to solidly middle-income status by modern times here.
Yeah and considering Korea was just as damaged in the Korean War just as Japan was damaged by the firebombings in World War II. Korea used investments and sent its citizens to study in Europe and the West and bring back what they learned. Hence, the South Korean economic miracle.
My guess is Japan would be a second-world developing country by ATL 2023. We could base it on AANW of @CalBear wherein Japan is subject into a blockade and bombardment (an alternative to Operation Downfall) in which the war with Japan ends in 1946. CalBear himself stated that Japan in ATL 2011 was comparable to OTL 2011 Greece in terms of economy and OTL 2011 Vietnam and Philippines in terms of standing in Asia.
Ah, OPERATION ASHIKA (Japanese for Sea Lion) lol.
1. There are no substantial ports on the north coast of Hokkaido. There are also no Division-sized landing beaches.
2. The “amphibious ships” provided to the USSR were all LCI(L) class ships. These are capable of landing 200 infantry troops and what they carry on their backs each when crammed to the gills (on an appropriately contoured beach). What about beans, bullets, gas, artillery, transportation……..
3. Paratroopers need resupply an reinforcement within a few days. Can you spell Market-Garden.
4. Air support?
5. Gunfire support?
6. Logistical support?
1. There are no substantial ports on the north coast of Hokkaido. There are also no Division-sized landing beaches.
2. The “amphibious ships” provided to the USSR were all LCI(L) class ships. These are capable of landing 200 infantry troops and what they carry on their backs each when crammed to the gills (on an appropriately contoured beach). What about beans, bullets, gas, artillery, transportation……..
3. Paratroopers need resupply an reinforcement within a few days. Can you spell Market-Garden.
4. Air support?
5. Gunfire support?
6. Logistical support?
Because it have very large chance ending up worse than Airborne drop of Operation Market Garden
Pangur
Donor
Airborne forces can only go so far, in the absence of a navy capable of an opposed beach landing they would need to take a decent size port intact which is pretty unlikely
I daresay the Japanese forces on Hokkaido were nowhere near as well led or well equipped as Model's at Arnhem. Several Soviet airborne divisions dropping out of the sky would thoroughly overwhelm them.