Scenario: a world where Hitler died in the trenches, the Nazi party never took off, and Germany never started a major war. I'm also going to assume that Stalin stays put and that while there are regional wars and military buildups, no massive conflict occurs. Meanwhile, by the late 30s, China was going through one of the bloodiest civil wars in history, and Japan had commenced a full-scale invasion.
IOTL Japan took advantage of its alliance with Germany and invaded French Indochina, with the aim of cutting the flow of supplies to the Chinese army, and serving as a launch base to seize the British and Dutch colonies of the East Indies. They hoped that the oil and other resources here provide the extra push the Japanese army needed to conquer China, and Japan's massive navy was getting antsy with nothing to do in China and the army taking up most of the country's attention.
Now, since France and the Netherlands are not being occupied, Japan is extremely unlikely to invade any European colonies, unless a very ambitious and crazy rogue captain bombs Hong Kong or something. This all begs the question, what now?
Japan's army is bogged down in China, they lack the manpower to invade Siberia, and the Russians kicked them out swiftly every time they tried OTL. The navy is still docked with little to do besides patrol missions, and while Japan may not be embargoed by the US ITTL, the Nanking massacre and other events did leave a bad taste in many western mouths. Still, Japan would probably get its oil from America unless PR goes to the deep south. However, the war would eventually start to run Japan dry, both financially, and population-wise. China simply had far more people and could probably keep fighting for another decade or two.
So how do things play out here? Does a battered and worn Japan eventually claim a pyrrhic victory and visualize China for a few decades? Or does Japan eventually cut its losses and call quits, leading to absolute chaos and coups back home? Maybe a middle ground where Japan retreats to the coastal cities and tries desperately to hold them down? What about the Soviets? Perhaps smelling blood in the water and lacking a Mutachio-led invasion they turn their attention to China and invade on behalf of the ROC, the CCP, or just themselves? Maybe after the 100th massacre of civilians in 1942, the western powers decide enough is enough and drop embargos on Japan. Some sort of major naval conflict had been building up between Japan and the US for some time...
Well, this intro certainly got out of hand, but I am really looking forward to everyone's takes on this subject.
IOTL Japan took advantage of its alliance with Germany and invaded French Indochina, with the aim of cutting the flow of supplies to the Chinese army, and serving as a launch base to seize the British and Dutch colonies of the East Indies. They hoped that the oil and other resources here provide the extra push the Japanese army needed to conquer China, and Japan's massive navy was getting antsy with nothing to do in China and the army taking up most of the country's attention.
Now, since France and the Netherlands are not being occupied, Japan is extremely unlikely to invade any European colonies, unless a very ambitious and crazy rogue captain bombs Hong Kong or something. This all begs the question, what now?
Japan's army is bogged down in China, they lack the manpower to invade Siberia, and the Russians kicked them out swiftly every time they tried OTL. The navy is still docked with little to do besides patrol missions, and while Japan may not be embargoed by the US ITTL, the Nanking massacre and other events did leave a bad taste in many western mouths. Still, Japan would probably get its oil from America unless PR goes to the deep south. However, the war would eventually start to run Japan dry, both financially, and population-wise. China simply had far more people and could probably keep fighting for another decade or two.
So how do things play out here? Does a battered and worn Japan eventually claim a pyrrhic victory and visualize China for a few decades? Or does Japan eventually cut its losses and call quits, leading to absolute chaos and coups back home? Maybe a middle ground where Japan retreats to the coastal cities and tries desperately to hold them down? What about the Soviets? Perhaps smelling blood in the water and lacking a Mutachio-led invasion they turn their attention to China and invade on behalf of the ROC, the CCP, or just themselves? Maybe after the 100th massacre of civilians in 1942, the western powers decide enough is enough and drop embargos on Japan. Some sort of major naval conflict had been building up between Japan and the US for some time...
Well, this intro certainly got out of hand, but I am really looking forward to everyone's takes on this subject.