Longterm effects of a Confederate victory

Straha

Banned
Presume a CS victory in the civil war/other method of winning independence and that they manage to get at least the 11 seceded states with kentucky, indian territory and mew mexico all being negotiable. So how does north america and the world develop? How do the rump United States and the newly independent CSA evolve politically, economically and culturally?

BTW Keep offtopic debates about the nature of slavery out of this thread. I'd prefer it if this thread doesn't turn into a flamewar like most past CSA threads
 

Max Sinister

Banned
- US are more egalitarian and industrial (and militarized), CSA stays mostly agrarian until it's too late. Slavery won't end in the 19th century. The CSA might try to expand, but the US will prevent this. It's quite possible that the US will start a war for revenge if they feel the opportunity has come.
 

Straha

Banned
Hm. REasonable. I take it that the US is much more influenced by the late 19th century/early 20th century immigrants than in the real world?
 

Max Sinister

Banned
Certainly - unless anti-immigration groups manage to restrict it, as the OTL US did later. (WI the anti-trust movement works together with them? Scary.)
 

Straha

Banned
So we're talking abotu the US looking more like a mix of a giant canada and argentina(influence of south/east europeans) while the CS ends up more like south africa with a dixie accent?
 

nemo1986

question does britain and france ensure victory? otherwise does not seem possible unless the south with a critical early victory like capturing Washington or something like that.
 

Straha

Banned
nemo1986 said:
question does britain and france ensure victory? otherwise does not seem possible unless the south with a critical early victory like capturing Washington or something like that.
Click to expand...

Presume the early victories. Britain and france entering is ASB due to slavery.
 

DuQuense

A Lot depends on the how and when of the Victory.

A CSA without a Civil War [Go in Peace as Brothers] would in the short term continue a lot like Pre split south. this South would have a very slow evolution in it's political and Economic systems. It's trade with the Us and Europe would continue almost as pre split. one Big Change would be less Cotton in Eygpt and India. Qicker rise of the Cotton Barons in the south.
I can almost see both Kentucky and Marysland joining this CSA

While a CSA that squeaks out a Copperhead Victory [McClellan in '64] at the last Gasp would have all the changes caused by 4 years of war to deal with.
Here you have 4 years of Union occupation of Kentucky, and the Emancipation proclamation, Union Troops all over the South, Mass Movements of the Slave population, with the withdrawing Union Troops.
this CS Has no chance of Kentucky or New Mexico, Major problems in New Orleans, and other long term occupied areas, where the Union de Facto freed a lot of the Slaves.
This is the CS that a lot of posters here, think would break up into several smaller pieces.

However, I don't see the continuing Hostility Turtledove has in his Books.
Within a couple generations the Commonalities would lead to good relations between the US and the CS. [Both versions] [think of US/GB despite two wars between them]
 

Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

Banned
Here's how it goes in my TL (this is from memory, so some details might be wrong):

The South wins using the Turtledove POD. The peace treaty is signed in 1863 in Brussels. The North is left to occupy west Virginia and east Tennessee for 20 years, when plebiscites would be held to establish the fate of Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, Indian Territory, Greer County (disputed between Texas and Indian Territory), and New Mexico (the Confederate one). The 4 states have twin governments during those 2 decades. When the plebiscites are held, Kentucky and Missouri remain in the Union, everything else goes to the Confederacy. The US had not abolished slavery or given blacks any rights during those 20 years so as not to alienate the locals (all bets are off after the plebiscites are held).

The Confederacy gains Cuba during a war with Spain. Afterwards they decide to invade Haiti and eliminate it as a threat. With help from France and the US, the Haitians kick their asses. Haiti becomes the CSA's Vietnam. Led by a character that I've taken the liberty of introducing, the Haitians unite the whole island (Spain had left Santo Domingo after losing Cuba) and force the Confederacy to evacuate in shame. "Haitian tactics" (a more brutal version of what how the Viet Cong operated) gain worldwide recognition, and the myth that blacks can't fight is destroyed.

A new war in Mexico between the imperialists and the republicans leads to northern Mexico (Tamaulipas, Coahuila, New Leon, Chihuahua, Sonora, and Lower California) seceding and forming the Sierra Madre Republic, which soon negotiates its union with the CSA.

Nicaragua is invaded by the Confederacy in the 1870s. Attempts to take the rest of Central America are failures. The Confederate threat is one of the reasons why the other republics in the area form their own federal state. The CSA also supports Panamanian secessionists in Colombia. The North sends marines in support of the government (based on a pre-POD treaty). The secessionists are defeated.

Further attacks on Haiti and filibustering expeditions in Latin North America are also failures.
 

Homer

Why do you think that the US keep that treaty for 20 years?
They were superior in population and production in the 1860s, and this advantage would even rise during the years. On the other side, which country would ally with a union of slaveholders? Britain and France would be rather pro-US then pro-CSA, as well as other european powers. Probably you would see anti-catholic feelings in the CSA a lot higher then in the US - adding to their population and adding the catholic european nations to their friends. so the US get stronger every day, whereas the South would stay as it is - and probably loose men and money to slave riots, defence, cuban adventures...

I'd rather think that any peace treaty that keeps the US intact would lead to a new war some years later that will finally crash the Southerners.
 
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