Malaya What If

[FriendlyGhost]

I have little knowledge of coding processes in use at the time, however I doubt that a message between London and Singapore would have been transmitted over the airwaves. Britain had built up from the mid nineteenth century, an extensive network of undersea telegraph cables, and one of the nodes on the network was Singapore. Cables went from there to the DEI, and Australia, and China via Hong Kong and Shanghai. Thus any message from London would have travelled over the extensive cable network, which basically made it impossible to intersept, and not by wireless in Morse, which all could listen into.

RR.

I learn something new every day! Thank you.

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

The starting pistol has been cocked...
So I think 11pm UT (not sure what London was on in 1941 +1 maybe?) is 7am Singapore. That seems a long process for even a top-level enciphered message.

and

The UK ran Summer Time / Double Summer Time from 1941 to 1945, hence in November 1941 London was on GMT+1 (the same as most of Europe), seven hours behind Singapore. So the 11 pm referred to by Churchill would have been 6 am in Singapore. If the meeting lasted a while (an hour or two), then the decision would have been coded some time after midnight. Transmitting from one station to another would be quite quick, but iirc coded messages needed to be double checked for accuracy at each stage (not decoded, but each transmitted word/letter/etc checked); I guess they might even have been send twice to help with this (maybe someone else knows more about this and can confirm or deny my guess). If SW (HF) radio was used, as I'd expect it to have been, then the message could have been transmitted directly but atmospheric conditions at the time would affect how good the signal was, which might have introduced a delay due to missed sections or necessitated going via intermediate stations (maybe Egypt / India). Decoding at the Singapore end would then have taken some time. I agree that 3:30 seems a bit late, but it's not implausible. If the 11pm meeting ran for three or four hours (which Churchill's meetings sometimes did...) then the time seems realistic.
Just my two-penny-worth.

Hi Errolwi, and Friendly Ghost, this whole timeframe has caused me endless problems, converting from one time zone to another. Is it too long a process, on reflection, I'd have to agree and say yes, and is an error on my part. The reason is, I think, I shuffled some stories within the time frame, and must have knocked this one back a bit, to fit another in, not appreciating the damage. I'm lucky because Gort isn't quite ready to make a decision, if he does, so I can say I got away with it. However, going forward, with various storylines running concurrently, placing them in a chronological timeframe is going to be a bit challenging, apologies if I'm an hour or so slower or quicker as I jump around. I don't think they will impact badly, but we'll have to see.

However, regarding the time zone difference, its a mess, but I'll explain it as I know it, and correct me if I'm wrong. Friendly Ghost is right, by December 1941 London was GMT+1, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Briti....-,Periods of deviation,, on 25 February 1940). But we'll have to refer everyone to GMT time, and the work out differences from that, because, from September 1941, Singapore (and Malaya) was GMT+7.30, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Malaysia. So London was 6.30 hours behind Singapore. Oh and wait till we get to Pearl Harbor, we're in different days!

So, and again check me, I'm working with the below time zone table

Differences in Time Zones
Hawaii is -10.30 Hrs GMT
Washington is -5 Hrs GMT
London is GMT +1 Hrs GMT (+2 Hrs in British Summer Time)
Singapore is +7.30 Hrs GMT
Manila is +8 Hrs GMT
Hong Kong is +8.30 Hrs GMT
Tokyo is +9 Hrs GMT

Nevertheless, 6.30 hours between Churchill starting a meeting and Gort reading it's decision is poor, they're going to have to do better if they want to win this war!

 

[Ramp-Rat]

I learn something new every day! Thank you.

Further to my earlier post, in 1945 the British IOTL, using a midget submarine and a diver cut the cable from Singapore to Saigon and Hong Kong, which forced the Japanese to use radio/wireless. Which meant that their signals which they had previously been unable to interpret, were now being regularly interpreted and decoded. In much the same way early on in WWI, a British cable ship with an escort, went into the North Sea, and dredged up the cables that connected Germany to the USA, and severed them. Which meant that for the rest of the war the Germans had to use a Swedish transatlantic cable for their communications with the United States. However for some strange reason the Swedes forgot to tell the Germans that the cable went first to Scotland before travelling overland the length of Britain, before exiting from Cornwall to America. So the British were able to read all the cables between Germany and the USA, for the duration, hence the Zimmerman interpretation and the entry of the USA into the war.

RR.

 

[jlckansas]

If you already have a plan setup, you don't have to setup and send anything other than what the execute phrase is for different parts. Example would be for one of the parts for the invasion of Thailand would be to send the code phrase to execute that part with another code sent that would turn local control over to other parts of the plans as needed.
You would have the people at the GCHQ people in charge of sending Top Secret Burn Before Reading messages open the file and encode the proper phrase into a strip for the telex machine and then run it on the proper cable to the needed receptors.
This is like when the Japanese had their "Winds Message" and the "Climb Mt. Nitaka" before Pearl Harbor or the ones sent before D-Day on June 6th, you just need to send the proper phrase and have it decoded.
This should take less than an hour from when the GCHQ gets the word to when it first goes out on the cables to Singapore and another hour to get receipt back. How long you get acknowledgment of understanding and executing the plan depends on when they receive the message and what it entails and who it entails.

 

[Butchpfd]

There was an additional cable set up, in the Far East. Hong Kong to Manila, Manila to Singapore, and Hawaii to Midway to Manila, running Nort of Luzon to Manila, via Corrigidor to Manila. Per U.S. Signal Corps and Coast Artillery, the Hong Kong Cable was cut the 10th of December, Singapore when UK forces fell back to lower Malaya, a Midway cable prior to Lingayen landings.

 

[naraht]

As part of their double secret plan to make Fyffes the largest tropical fruit producer, of especially Bananas, in the world. And remove the United Fruit Company from its position at the top of the pack. 😉

RR.

As I actually researched on another TL, the Banana Production on the Islands such as Jamaica was particularly bad in the early 1940s.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Thanks Fatboy Coxy - this is all I wanted from this TL

A pre-emptive 'non Gin drinking' and 'not totally bottling it' response to the impending invasion of Thailand and Malaya

 

[Ramp-Rat]

If you already have a plan setup, you don't have to setup and send anything other than what the execute phrase is for different parts. Example would be for one of the parts for the invasion of Thailand would be to send the code phrase to execute that part with another code sent that would turn local control over to other parts of the plans as needed.
You would have the people at the GCHQ people in charge of sending Top Secret Burn Before Reading messages open the file and encode the proper phrase into a strip for the telex machine and then run it on the proper cable to the needed receptors.
This is like when the Japanese had their "Winds Message" and the "Climb Mt. Nitaka" before Pearl Harbor or the ones sent before D-Day on June 6th, you just need to send the proper phrase and have it decoded.
This should take less than an hour from when the GCHQ gets the word to when it first goes out on the cables to Singapore and another hour to get receipt back. How long you get acknowledgment of understanding and executing the plan depends on when they receive the message and what it entails and who it entails.

Sir having considered your post it is my contention that you are mistaken in saying that a secret message to Singapore would have been sent via what at the time was called GCCS, Government Code and Cypher School, as it didn’t become GCHQ until 1946. Rather any secret message would have been sent from the Cabinet War Rooms where it would have been coded to Electra House the central office of International Cable and Wireless, the part Government owned company, via the Post Office. For onwards transmission to Singapore, via its extensive cable network, if both ends had Type -X coding machines, then the signal would be generated in the War Room telex office and sent to the Singapore War Room, where it would have been decoded. Otherwise it would have had to be encoded manually and transmitted then decoded manually in a coding room. The massive advantage that Britains extensive international cable network gave it in the conduct of the war, is normally not appreciated or acknowledged. Foreign nations that thought that they had their own cables, didn’t realise that what their telegraph service was doing was renting a line/lines on a British owned and controlled cable. Hence why during WWI, the “Swedish” cable only went as far as Scotland, from there onwards they just had a few lines on a British cable. This is why even to this day, the Five Eyes collaboration of signet interception is so effective, as the majority of international communications networks are owned by American or British companies, and London is still one of the major centres of communication. If you look at a modern map of international cables, fibre optic as apposed to copper, you will see just how central London is.

RR.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

As I actually researched on another TL, the Banana Production on the Islands such as Jamaica was particularly bad in the early 1940s.

Banana production in the British West Indies only ramped up post WWII, as Britain could purchase them from their with sterling not hard to get hold of American dollars. And they had little option but to sell them to Britain, as to protect United Fruit from competition the US, set a high tariff on bananas imported from anywhere else other then nations were UF were the dominant producers.

RR.

 

[GTStinger]

Now if the timing works out, some US officials could be sternly lecturing their British counterparts for violating Thai neutrality, just as the messenger walks in the room to tell them about the attack on Pearl…..

 

[Errolwi]

If you already have a plan setup, you don't have to setup and send anything other than what the execute phrase is for different parts.

Depends on if you have planned in advance to delegate conditional authority to execute. The starter pistol is handed over and cocked, but not yet fired. I'm sure senior UK commanders are ecstatic to receive orders that Winston drafted himself, always crystal clear <cough>Coronel<cough>.

 

[Undeadmuffin]

Now if the timing works out, some US officials could be sternly lecturing their British counterparts for violating Thai neutrality, just as the messenger walks in the room to tell them about the attack on Pearl…..

If it doesn't happen close enough, there could be some blind US officials that accuse the British actions of ''provoking'' Japan into doing PH (even if an operation like that have to be premeditated)

 

[naraht]

Banana production in the British West Indies only ramped up post WWII, as Britain could purchase them from their with sterling not hard to get hold of American dollars. And they had little option but to sell them to Britain, as to protect United Fruit from competition the US, set a high tariff on bananas imported from anywhere else other then nations were UF were the dominant producers.

RR.

Also had to deal with diseases, production in Jamaica in the early 1940s was considerably less than 5-10 years earlier.

 

[Fatboy Coxy]

Further to my earlier post, in 1945 the British IOTL, using a midget submarine and a diver cut the cable from Singapore to Saigon and Hong Kong, which forced the Japanese to use radio/wireless. Which meant that their signals which they had previously been unable to interpret, were now being regularly interpreted and decoded. In much the same way early on in WWI, a British cable ship with an escort, went into the North Sea, and dredged up the cables that connected Germany to the USA, and severed them. Which meant that for the rest of the war the Germans had to use a Swedish transatlantic cable for their communications with the United States. However for some strange reason the Swedes forgot to tell the Germans that the cable went first to Scotland before travelling overland the length of Britain, before exiting from Cornwall to America. So the British were able to read all the cables between Germany and the USA, for the duration, hence the Zimmerman interpretation and the entry of the USA into the war.

RR.

and

Sir having considered your post it is my contention that you are mistaken in saying that a secret message to Singapore would have been sent via what at the time was called GCCS, Government Code and Cypher School, as it didn’t become GCHQ until 1946. Rather any secret message would have been sent from the Cabinet War Rooms where it would have been coded to Electra House the central office of International Cable and Wireless, the part Government owned company, via the Post Office. For onwards transmission to Singapore, via its extensive cable network, if both ends had Type -X coding machines, then the signal would be generated in the War Room telex office and sent to the Singapore War Room, where it would have been decoded. Otherwise it would have had to be encoded manually and transmitted then decoded manually in a coding room. The massive advantage that Britains extensive international cable network gave it in the conduct of the war, is normally not appreciated or acknowledged. Foreign nations that thought that they had their own cables, didn’t realise that what their telegraph service was doing was renting a line/lines on a British owned and controlled cable. Hence why during WWI, the “Swedish” cable only went as far as Scotland, from there onwards they just had a few lines on a British cable. This is why even to this day, the Five Eyes collaboration of signet interception is so effective, as the majority of international communications networks are owned by American or British companies, and London is still one of the major centres of communication. If you look at a modern map of international cables, fibre optic as apposed to copper, you will see just how central London is.

RR.

Hi Ramp-Rat, regarding the cable network, the fall of Penang in mid December 1941 had a serious bearing on communications for the British, as that's where the submarine cable connecting India landed. I don't think it totally screwed them, but a lot of rerouting was required to communicate with London.

 

[Ramp-Rat]

Also had to deal with diseases, production in Jamaica in the early 1940s was considerably less than 5-10 years earlier.

Thank-you for the additional information, I only knew about the desperate attempts by HMG, to spread as few US Dollars as possible. As the post war economic settlement was distinctly unfavourable towards Britain, and seriously screwed our previous trading arrangements with a number of nations, plus the pound dollar exchange rate was much higher than was justified by the state of the UK economy. And the government wasn’t allowed to lower the value of the pound, and take advantage of a lower exchange rate.

RR.

 

[gallen95]

and

Hi Errolwi, and Friendly Ghost, this whole timeframe has caused me endless problems, converting from one time zone to another. Is it too long a process, on reflection, I'd have to agree and say yes, and is an error on my part. The reason is, I think, I shuffled some stories within the time frame, and must have knocked this one back a bit, to fit another in, not appreciating the damage. I'm lucky because Gort isn't quite ready to make a decision, if he does, so I can say I got away with it. However, going forward, with various storylines running concurrently, placing them in a chronological timeframe is going to be a bit challenging, apologies if I'm an hour or so slower or quicker as I jump around. I don't think they will impact badly, but we'll have to see.

However, regarding the time zone difference, its a mess, but I'll explain it as I know it, and correct me if I'm wrong. Friendly Ghost is right, by December 1941 London was GMT+1, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Summer_Time#:~:text=in early 1915.-,Periods of deviation,, on 25 February 1940). But we'll have to refer everyone to GMT time, and the work out differences from that, because, from September 1941, Singapore (and Malaya) was GMT+7.30, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_in_Malaysia. So London was 6.30 hours behind Singapore. Oh and wait till we get to Pearl Harbor, we're in different days!

So, and again check me, I'm working with the below time zone table

Differences in Time Zones
Hawaii is -10.30 Hrs GMT
Washington is -5 Hrs GMT
London is GMT +1 Hrs GMT (+2 Hrs in British Summer Time)
Singapore is +7.30 Hrs GMT
Manila is +8 Hrs GMT
Hong Kong is +8.30 Hrs GMT
Tokyo is +9 Hrs GMT

Nevertheless, 6.30 hours between Churchill starting a meeting and Gort reading it's decision is poor, they're going to have to do better if they want to win this war!

Just remember the International Date Line! Dec 7 US/Hawaii and Britain. Dec 8 Wake/Australia/Phillipines/Java/Malaya and Japan.

 

[Belisarius II]

Thank-you for the additional information, I only knew about the desperate attempts by HMG, to spread as few US Dollars as possible. As the post war economic settlement was distinctly unfavourable towards Britain, and seriously screwed our previous trading arrangements with a number of nations, plus the pound dollar exchange rate was much higher than was justified by the state of the UK economy. And the government wasn’t allowed to lower the value of the pound, and take advantage of a lower exchange rate.

RR.

Keeping the Pound artificially high wasn't imposed on Britain it was their own policy choice.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Keeping the Pound artificially high wasn't imposed on Britain it was their own policy choice.

Not really. Keynes wanted a completely different system to that agreed at Bretton Woods.

 

[Belisarius II]

Not really. Keynes wanted a completely different system to that agreed at Bretton Woods.

Bretton Woods? Sorry, I thought we were talking about economic policy leading up to WWII.

 

[jlckansas]

Sir having considered your post it is my contention that you are mistaken in saying that a secret message to Singapore would have been sent via what at the time was called GCCS, Government Code and Cypher School, as it didn’t become GCHQ until 1946. Rather any secret message would have been sent from the Cabinet War Rooms where it would have been coded to Electra House the central office of International Cable and Wireless, the part Government owned company, via the Post Office. For onwards transmission to Singapore, via its extensive cable network, if both ends had Type -X coding machines, then the signal would be generated in the War Room telex office and sent to the Singapore War Room, where it would have been decoded. Otherwise it would have had to be encoded manually and transmitted then decoded manually in a coding room. The massive advantage that Britains extensive international cable network gave it in the conduct of the war, is normally not appreciated or acknowledged. Foreign nations that thought that they had their own cables, didn’t realise that what their telegraph service was doing was renting a line/lines on a British owned and controlled cable. Hence why during WWI, the “Swedish” cable only went as far as Scotland, from there onwards they just had a few lines on a British cable. This is why even to this day, the Five Eyes collaboration of signet interception is so effective, as the majority of international communications networks are owned by American or British companies, and London is still one of the major centres of communication. If you look at a modern map of international cables, fibre optic as apposed to copper, you will see just how central London is.

RR.

My bad, keeping the acronym agencies straight is difficult at time and at other times you really need to have a score card/cheat sheet.