Moderate Republican abandon GOP

This past election got me wondering about what if the rise of the Tea Party caused moderate Republicans to defect to the Democrats. Obviously it wouldn't be en masse, but lets say some high profile GOP members do so, causing a ripple effect.

So how will this change the political landscape of the US? What does this do to the Democratic party, and their current aims?
 

Faeelin

Banned
Specter, Crist, etc. did. It doesn't seem to have worked out, and the GOP will have the House for the next ten years.
 
Faeelin, perhaps it would help if the switchers weren't obviously motivated by pure self-interest in the most immediate sense?
 

boredatwork

Banned
Faeelin, perhaps it would help if the switchers weren't obviously motivated by pure self-interest in the most immediate sense?

They would need an over-riding issue or issues which neither of the other parties was addressing.


Perot's reform party had the deficit for a while - but bringing that down is actually one of the current tea party drivers.


Find a strong wedge issue which divides these ATL moderate republicans (new whigs, reform party, national party, new republican party, pick a name too...) from the Dems and GOP and you can start working out who would form this new grouping, and how the might fare.

It would also depend on when the split happened. This year was not a good time - crist et al. 2008, after the election when the GOP was shellacked might be a more propitious moment.
 
to what/where and why? answer that, and you've got the makings of an idea for a party.

I was proposing McCain join the Democrats, and either left with a group of moderates or inspired such an exodus to the dems (obviously a good number would go independent or join minor parties).

I know there was talk of him doing it in the early 00s, and I doubt he would do it right after 08. I could buy it maybe during this reelection this cycle, say Palin stabbed him in the back instead of supporting him. Or possibly a few years down the road, say the POD has something to do with the Tea Party gaining even more power over the GOP.
 
Last edited:
To be brank, it is far more likely that the Democrats would split than the Republicans. The more Blue-Dog types like Joe Manchin could break off from the leftist wing headed by Pelosi and friends, if for no other reason than electabilty.
 

boredatwork

Banned
To be brank, it is far more likely that the Democrats would split than the Republicans. The more Blue-Dog types like Joe Manchin could break off from the leftist wing headed by Pelosi and friends, if for no other reason than electabilty.

Upside - better alignment with local voters.
Downside, loose union manpower & $ (not neglible, by any means) and open to the danger that your locals would prefer 'a real Republican(Democrat/Whig/Tory/Labourite/etc)'.
 
Hey, what if BOTH major parties split, and we got some actual differentiation between candidates in this country?

(Sigh, happy place...)

Oh wait, I'm pretty sure that's ASB. Oh well...
 
othyrsyde, the major problem is that McCain is not a moderate and has never been a moderate.

Too much of the media spent most of Bush's two terms under the delusion that McCain wanting to have been president instead of Bush somehow made him a moderate.
 
Hey, what if BOTH major parties split, and we got some actual differentiation between candidates in this country?

(Sigh, happy place...)

Oh wait, I'm pretty sure that's ASB. Oh well...

I think if that happened, the moderates of both parties would have to come together and form a new party to be viable. This would be an interesting TL.

To be brank, it is far more likely that the Democrats would split than the Republicans. The more Blue-Dog types like Joe Manchin could break off from the leftist wing headed by Pelosi and friends, if for no other reason than electabilty.


This could be interesting as well.
 

gridlocked

Banned
Well, in a sense that has already happened. The old GOP used to be an Eastern Establishment party. The Eastern Establishment (by that I mean the northeast) is now mostly Democratic. What is known today as the Rockefeller wing of the party is no longer a major factor in national politics

Every action causes an equal reaction. As the GOP got less Eastern, it got more Southern and Western. However, these changes take a long time. It wasn't until THIS 2010 election that the old fashion conservative southern Democrats was removed from power in Congress.

If populism/Tea Party takes over the GOP, it would alienate sections of the GOP base. Wall Street and Corporate America shift completely Democratic. This along with additional moderate voters would strengthen the DLC/third way/neo-liberal wing of the Democratic party. This wing would dominate in American politics. Also because populism has explicit geographic appeal, it would sharpen the regionalism of the two major parties (much more than today).
 

Xen

Banned
To be brank, it is far more likely that the Democrats would split than the Republicans. The more Blue-Dog types like Joe Manchin could break off from the leftist wing headed by Pelosi and friends, if for no other reason than electabilty.

Manchin would not have to leave the DNC, he may be a Blue Dog but hes very popular in West Virginia, which is typically a Democratic State. Neither Byrd nor Rockefeller had to switch, and Rahall was elected to another term in the House by Southern West Virginia, the most conservative part of the state, so if Manchin switched it would likely be political suicide.
 
I'd say that if it has already happened, since there are pretty much no moderate Republicans left that are serving on the national stage (other than Snowe, Collins, Scott Brown and Lugar in the Senate, I can't think of anyone).

I'd say that the short-term effect is that the emergence of a sizeable faction of Blue Dogs that used to be Republicans that would give the Democratic Party troubles in Congress and make things easier for the Republicans.

In the long run, however, demographics and the two-party system catch up with the GOP. The hardcore conservative base, which is primarily white, Christian and somewhat older, dies off and moderate-conservatives retake the party. The Democrats lose their monopoly on Hispanic voters as the Hispanics become more and more comfortable voting for moderate (i.e.-not "round up all illegals and build a 20-foot high wall across the Rio Grande") Republicans who realize that the party can't afford to keep alienating Hispanics.

The Democrats, for their part, remain where they are politically, but with a large portion of un-repatriated ex-GOP Blue Dogs for decades that moderate the party in areas where they are dominant. The liberal backlash to the conservatism of the old GOP means a powerful left wing of the party (relatively speaking, of course) will clash with the unreconstructed GOP Blue Dogs for control and could lead to multiple defections.

And, as a happy note, the hardcore conservatives are reduced to a faction in the GOP instead of the dominant majority, which some of the more socially conservative members especially being shunned nationally by the party in light of more increased public indifference on social issues (gay marriage legalized, marijuana decriminalized, among other issues).
 
I thought they had become exctinct! The last person who mwerited that title was possibly Colin Powell or with a bit of imagination Arnold Scwartzeneger. I am not sure if they joined the Democrats or gave up and the new generation went straight into the Democrats anyway. I am sure that Teddy Roosevelt would have joined the Democrats had he started in politics today

That may be splitting hairs but the effect of their exit will be to give President Obama a second term and when the protest vote effect declines to put to Republicans into opposition for some time to come until the Tea party loonies lose their influence.
 
We may soon see the two parties getting to more of a super right wing reactionary side in the GOP and a more Liberal side in the Democratic party. So the moderates would have to decide what pushed their bottons. Being on the side of trickle down economics and code name racism or going to over the top liberalism. I can see more moderates going to the democrats and bringing it back to the center. I can't see them going right wing with some of the people who say my way or the highway right now. But winning can breed just about anything.
 
WI both parties split, and the moderates of both sides formed one big new party? Would they win an uber-(as kids would say nowadays) victory?
 
The problem with this discussion istwofold. First off, it requires an established definition of just who is a moderate Republican. Is it a pro-oil but relatively socially liberal Lisa Murkowski or a socially-conservative proponent of the welfare state like Bob Inglis? I really don't see how it can be both.

The second issue is with the Democratic Party itself. As much as Republican activists disparage the Left in their party, the Democrats disparage the Right in theirs. Liberals in the US recently have expressed frustrations with the efforts the Obama administration has compromised to broaden support for his agenda. But, it is such compromise that would foster defections from the GOP. As long as Republicans of any stripe view President Obama as a liberal, a significanty level of defections is unlikely. Ask how many conservatives who voted for Obama if they approve of the job President Obama is doing. Most won't be impressed so far.
 
I think that it would not be long before the GOP/Non Tea Party Republicans re-took the presidency and probably the house, but the Senate.

By focusing in on new demographics they would be able to reach otherwise-conservative social groups that vote democratic due to the perception of the post-Nixon southern strategy Republicans (the Republican race issue, culture issue and opposition to homosexuals).

African Americans and Mexican American families tend to be fairly conservative, however vote democrat due to the intended and side effects of Nixons southern strategy. If the moderate GOP divorced itself from its fringe and 'old guard', it would probably pick up a great deal of the latino vote, and re-establish itself as the African American supported party. The same goes for the gay community, which is often fiscally conscious. With growing unrest and unsettledness between Democrats and minorities on lack of action on racial issues (immigration opposition, increasing discrimination in the workplace, profiling and hate crimes), these 'backbone' demographics of the democrats would likely switch parties.

We would probably see the Democrats and the Tea Party holding equal amounts of the electorate probably 25% each with moderate Republicans holding 50%.

[Since this is my first post, I just want to say glad to be here...this is one of the more novel boards Ive ever had the pleasure of joining]
 
Top