Mussolini completely eliminates Mafia

[Ryker of Terra]

IOTL Fascist Italy took steps to suppress the Sicilian Mafia. Mussolini ordered a man named Cesare Mori to eradicate La Cosa Nostra by any means necessary and gave him his full support. This worked relatively well, with Mori detaining lots of these mafiosi, but it would not be that easy. He could imprison many of the low- and mid-level goons, but the higher-ups had political connections in Rome, which forced him to back off. After the war, they framed themselves as being anti-communists who nonetheless suffered from fascist oppression, so the WAllies said "Welcome aboard!" and let them reestablish their power base.

Anyway, I saw this thread on the HistoryWhatIf subreddit and it got me thinking, what if the Moose had destroyed them entirely? Let's say he has some bad experiences with the Mafia before coming into power. Maybe a friend of his, or someone else he is close to, is killed (accidentally or on purpose) by the Mafia, which makes him hate them with a burning passion and throw out the window any pragmatic considerations regarding these well-connected higher-up mafiosi. Fuck pragmatism, he's gonna annihilate them! As an example of what he might do, this is taken from the Reddit post:

In this alternate timeline, Mussolini completely wipes out the mafia. Instead of merely imprisoning them, they are executed. The few remnants which manage to survive the Italian paramilitary death squads until the outbreak of WW2 are sent to Germany at the behest of Mussolini's German allies. Hoping to please the Germans, the Italian dictator re-labels these organized crime figures as Jews, gypsies, communists, and other traditional enemies of the fascist states. They disappear into the cauldron of war in Eastern Europe as members of work camps or penal legions on the Eastern front.

Assume that any Sicilian mafiosi that moved away from Sicily IOTL didn't have the time ITTL and got clapped instead. What are the effects of no Sicilian Mafia?

 

[marktaha]

There'll always be crime.

 

[Onslow123]

Cicilian Mafia is only one of Italian criminal organisations. During Mussolini's rule, there were 2 other organizations, what are still active today. In Campania region there is Comorra, in Calabria there is 'Ndrangheta. According to Wikipedia Comorra and 'Ndrangheta are older than Cicilan Mafia, what dates from early 19th century, 'Ndrangheta's first documented activites were in 1792 and Comorra is from 17th century. Cicilian Mafia of nowadays is lot smaller than Comorra or 'Ndrangheta.

From all three big organiations, is Mafia the weakest one, when they were elliminated, then somebdy else would have taken their place.

 

[Onslow123]

Two important things about two other big criminal orgaisations in Italy:

1) 'Ndrangheta has in last forty years been the main drug importer of Italy, their revenue of all activities (legal and illegal) is noticeable part of Italy's GDP.

2) Neaples has had in the last few decades two Comorra related problems, the fist one is, that Comorra controls regional waste management and the second one is, that in early 21th century, there are clan wars - some tourist were shot as bystanders - result of non pyramidial structure of Comorra.

 

[Ryker of Terra]

Cicilian Mafia is only one of Italian criminal organisations. During Mussolini's rule, there were 2 other organizations, what are still active today. In Campania region there is Comorra, in Calabria there is 'Ndrangheta. According to Wikipedia Comorra and 'Ndrangheta are older than Cicilan Mafia, what dates from early 19th century, 'Ndrangheta's first documented activites were in 1792 and Comorra is from 17th century. Cicilian Mafia of nowadays is lot smaller than Comorra or 'Ndrangheta.

From all three big organiations, is Mafia the weakest one, when they were elliminated, then somebdy else would have taken their place.

I've heard of them. What if he manages to whack the Camorra and 'Ndrangheta too?

Will this improve the economy of southern Italy (making it safer etc.)? Will the absence of these groups mean that new, less established and more disorganized Italian criminals take their place, or will foreign criminal groups move in?

 

[Dan1988]

I've heard of them. What if he manages to whack the Camorra and 'Ndrangheta too?

They fight back and he gets killed. They're that ruthless and scary.

 

[Infinite-Monkeys]

They fight back and he gets killed. They're that ruthless and scary.

In a situation where Mussolini's control over Italy is as stable as it was before World War II while I expect they try I doubt they'd succeed. Organised mafias/Mafia -type organisations (in the broader sense of the word so including groups like the Camorra) may have been a big deal in Italy and very powerful in their own areas but short of Mussolini deciding to march through their core territory relatively undefended they can't really compare with the capacity for violence of the fascist state (granted unless they were very very lucky).

As for what would happen if Mussolini successfully crushed or more of the effectively established mafias, I think it depends a lot on the precise scenario.

If he did this through having more time, which suggests he's sat out of the war and you see the continuation of fascist Italy at least into the 50s and 60s (possibly a similar progression to Spain OTL), then my guess is you would see the genuine death of the cultures and themes of these groups. But this doesn't mean the end of crime, given Fascism's tendency to focus on big personalities, individual power structures, and willingness of its particularly more junior members to commit acts of violence I suspect effectively rogue elements of the party would become the heart of new organised criminal groups. It might end up looking a bit like the situation in Russia OTL so where favourites of party officials are effectively handed important business assets giving them the resources they then need to expand into the gap created by the loss of the old criminal order but then in return effectively send cash back up to their political contacts. I doubt this leads to less crime in Italy but it's probably a bit more evenly distributed instead of being so focused on the South and may find it a bit harder to work internationally.

If you did this by just being luckier and doing it harder but the rest of history ran as per OTL (so Italy loses the war etc), I actually suspect long-term the Sicilian Mafia would be more powerful., But it would also be more American. Effectively the allies would be moving into a country with a massive vacuum of power, there would still be crime but it would be lots of small disorganised groups as anything they had got sufficiently organised had been brutally crushed quite recently. OTL the US already used some members of the American Mafia to get Intel on Italy and I assume that would be the same, I expect the American Mafia (which at this point was relatively unknown/low priority for the American government), would very much want to go 'home' and try and effectively retrieve what they can of their extended family assets. Then when they turn up they find there's no real opposition, the relatively light touch occupying forces probably treat Americans unusually well/give them a lot more discretion, and they've got resources from preestablished businesses back in the USA to fund weapons land purchases etc. so I expect the Americanised Mafia basically take over any criminal asset they see as particularly valuable in Italy. This likely still a bit more focus on Sicily just because they associate it with the motherland/there's a certain prestige to holding it but you will also have more hegemonic presence of Americanised versions of the Sicilian Mafia in territory that is more associated with the Comorra and 'Ndrangheta OTL

 

[Nivek]

It would be brought back when the Allies needs collaborator as OTL, that might change the Mafia in USA too

 

[Evil Crusader]

Those organisations are pretty deeply rooted and hard to completely eliminate in the span of a few years; no organisation can survive in hiding and/or going abroad indefinitely though, so a zelously anti-organized-crime Mussolini could set the stage for "the death of the mafias". It will certainly take more than the mere 22 years Fascism lasted though, but probably no more than two generations, as most people by then would be invested in other ventures.