In OTL, Franklin Roosevelt planned on stepping down in 1940 in favor of his preferred successor, Harry Hopkins. However, Hopkins' health collapsed and WWII broke out, prompting FDR to run for an unprecedented third term. The POD is that German Conservatives forge a coalition to block the Nazis from power, Poland is never invaded and therefore WWII is butterflied. FDR steps down, but neither can Hopkins run due to his health. Who are the Democratic and Republican nominees in this scenario, and which nominee ultimately wins the Presidency in 1940? The war with Japan still happens in this TL, so the winner might very well go on to be a great President himself...
No WWII - Who is Elected US President in 1940?
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
Let’s see.
Wendell Willkie was a compromise candidate and chosen for his internationalist stance. WW2 made isolationism less appealing but butterflying that makes it more popular. I could see Arthur Vandenberg getting the Republican nomination. For democrats, I’ll say John Nance Garner would be a good candidate if a bit old. James Farley if all else fails. Maybe Alben Barkley or Harry Truman. I’ll give the democrats a narrow win. When Japan starts war, it’ll be done in a few years earlier because since Germany is not a problem, Britain and France could send Asian troops to fight Japan fully and with the best equipment. The democrats win in 1944 against Robert Taft. Peace and stuff. Yeah. Good times.
Wendell Willkie was a compromise candidate and chosen for his internationalist stance. WW2 made isolationism less appealing but butterflying that makes it more popular. I could see Arthur Vandenberg getting the Republican nomination. For democrats, I’ll say John Nance Garner would be a good candidate if a bit old. James Farley if all else fails. Maybe Alben Barkley or Harry Truman. I’ll give the democrats a narrow win. When Japan starts war, it’ll be done in a few years earlier because since Germany is not a problem, Britain and France could send Asian troops to fight Japan fully and with the best equipment. The democrats win in 1944 against Robert Taft. Peace and stuff. Yeah. Good times.
Only twelve years after the 1928 debacle, probably not. And unlike his sons, Joe didn't have the charisma or star power to to really inspire the electorate. He was more of a shrewd businessman and maverick patriarch than a politician. Also, the Ambassadorship to the UK is a diplomatic post without serious political advantages. (It's true that Adams I and II, Monroe, Van Biden, and Buchanan all had the job before becoming President, but that was when foreign policy was less centralized under the State Department and they all had long political careers outside of diplomacy that established each man as a Presidential candidate. Kennedy in contrast didn't so he wouldn't have much of a chance if any).
Well since there is no WW2 that means that later on Joe Jr. should still be alive.
He would be a good candidate in 1956 or 1960 depending on the circumstances. Although, apparently Arthur Schlesinger Jr (who knew Joe Jr. from Harvard and liked him personally) didn't think Joe Jr would have been as good a politician as Jack was in OTL and that the oldest Kennedy son probably would not have become President. Given that JFK just barely won the Presidency by the skin of his teeth, that could make all the difference when Joe Jr makes his inevitable run for the White House. However, no WWII unleashes so many butterflies that circumstances could very well end up working in Jr's favor.
He was initially the Republican frontrunner until the Fall of France, so in this scenario he might have a shot depending on who the Democrats put up. His age would be an issue though (he was only 38 in 1940!)
Certainly the issue of his father being an isolationist wouldn’t be a problem.