1. Interesting result of the Stauffenberg incident.
2. Ouch, the Fins are getting smashed.
I would note myself there is a third possibly interesting departure from OTL here...
tbf isn't the fall of sortavala similar to otl? If Stalin wants to take over Germany if things go as per otl I think the Soviets would do something similar and Finland would be a forcibly neutral country as per otl.
Ehm not quite... OTL you did not have Sortavala falling to an army marching from the Karelian isthmus...
Also seeing the Greek movements are very nice, and the similarity between WWI and WWII definitely feels a lot more prominent than in otl. The breaking of the Germans is once again through the Greeks.
The armies in the Western front might have a few choice words to say about this TTL. Never mind 6.5 million Soviets in the Eastern front this time round. But I would short of expect the Greeks to have... shall we say a lot of self-confidence TTL?
PS I really do wonder how the ME would end up with how different ittl is compared to otl in the Alawite state and the Kurds and assyrians being important players...
That remains to be seen...
You beat me to it. The Finns were in a very bad place in OTL just before the armistice too, and they were still able to get something that preserved their independence, kept the territorial losses at a minimum, and the reparations at a reasonable level. The fact that the Soviets still needed those troops elsewhere and that truly compelling the Finns to surrender would be costly in time and blood plays for them.
There will still be a cost for the Finns not signing peace when their position was stronger, of course, but the cost of it would be Finlandization, heavier reparations, and maybe Viipuri and Petsamo, we'd have to wait and see, when they might have gotten a near statu quo ante bellum territorially speaking and fairly light economic consequences, as well as no diplomatic restrictions, had they signed when it was still time.
The Finns were in a very bad place in OTL but at least the had managed to fight the Soviet offensive to a standstill which saved them from worse, like unconditional surrender. Which the Soviets might or might not had aimed for, but certainly wouldn't mind.
I mean the reason OTL the Finns didn’t accept was that the Soviets wanted an extreme amount of reparations. I imagine it was turned down for a similar reason ITTL.
And the belief false or otherwise that the Soviet communication during the battle talking of surrender meant an unconditional one.
What I find surprising is that the Germans aren’t helping yet. The Finn’s asked OTL before Viipuri even fell, I don’t see why that would have changed at all. Sure the Germans aren’t doing great but I don’t see why they’d be unable to help as much as OTL.
Aren't doing great is an euphemism here. I'd note the Finnish offensive here comes AFTER Bagration has begun, and with all out attacks against the Gothic line and in the Balkans...
Too late now to change much but the efficiency of the Luftwaffe will increase slightly.
Wever likely goes on to running the show...
Yes maybe an more rational management of resources for the last part of the war (instead of, for example, Bodenplatte). But akin to rearrange the Titanic deck chairs...
en.wikipedia.org
More or less. The United Nations have overwhelming superiority by this point.
In July 1944, the Soviets have taken Viipuri and reached Lake Saimaa... and the Finnish army is still fighting at the river Svir?
The Finnish military leadership has really failed at withdrawing troops from Eastern Karelia ITTL. I wonder why, IOTL they started the withdrawal in June. Here they should have put the withdrawal in high gear at the very latest when Viipuri was just getting threatened.
In OTL the Finns were actually expecting the offensive to come on the Svir. They were taken by surprise when it hit on the Karelian isthmus but at least the second offensive on the Svir came 15 days later giving them sufficient time to shift forces from the Svir to the Karelian isthmus. Here the delay from the fighting in Anatolia means the Sofiets actually hit both fronts simultaneusly, My expectation is puling out forces from the Svir in the face of a full scale offensive is much more difficult compared to doing the same while the front is quiet. Plus there is likely at least some delay in realising the main danger is the Karelian isthmus, after all the attack on the Svir plays into the Finnish expectations.
I wonder how much pressure is the Yugoslavian government is putting on the Allies to liberate it's territory..
Quite a bit I'd expect... but the Allies are trying to do exactly this at the moment so there shouldn't be much reason to complain about...
I think this makes the most sense to me as a likely outcome. Yes, the Israelis will be stronger, but so will “Greater Syria,” and like I said before Abdullah has an obligation to try and protect Levantine Arabs so he cannot stay out of the war if Egypt gets involved. As a side note, I doubt the UAR ever forms ITTL as Syria and Egypt will quickly become rivals over being leaders of the Arabs until SA has its inevitable rise to power on oil money.
This largely depends on what happens to Syria early after the war. But Abdullah will be under very strong public pressure to fight Israel I think.
We may not even have Natural Syria since the Alawite state is still present ittl. Abdullah probably won't even take over what's left of Syria, and I think the fall out of WWII would still make the thoughts of a Pan-Arab state be present in a lot of Arab nations tho. Maybe we see a Jordan-Syria-Iraq state?
We have an Alawite state as long as it is not ehm liberated by Damascus. Of course depending on circumstances the French army may have a word or two to say about this...
