Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles

[Duke of Orlando]

Hell, with Romania and Bulgaria switching sides sooner

This is a big assumption on Romanias part. With no Prince Michael things are likely to be much tougher for the Soviets ITTL. If Romania stays in the fight even a month or two longer it can drastically change the timeline of the Eastern Front as we know it.

Also a Finnish SSR is interesting in its own right, and would allow the WAllies to take over more of Germany.

Why does a Soviet Finland lead to a larger WAllies Germany? I don’t see the connection. Also a Soviet Finland likely leads to a very different history of Cold War diplomacy. Not to frame Finlandization as a good thing, but I’m not sure who is a driving force for something like CSCE without a neutral Finland. So I’d rather they get the OTL treatment if possible.

I don't think we'd see a Germanic Prussia post WWII, I think everyone was okay with the destruction of it. Maybe we'd see a scenario where Kaliningrad is created to 'become the model SSR where everyone lived together in peace and harmony' but a name change and the moving away of a lot of Germans would be inevitable at this point.

I can see a Soviet German Prussia if the Soviets feel penned in with a smaller sphere of influence. In that case more proxy’s are more important than destroying German militarism at its roots. They could even see such a thing as beneficial if they think they can harness it.

 

[Quinkana]

This is a big assumption on Romanias part. With no Prince Michael things are likely to be much tougher for the Soviets ITTL. If Romania stays in the fight even a month or two longer it can drastically change the timeline of the Eastern Front as we know it.

If we get Romania getting pushed in from the Soviets in the East and the Greeks in the south after Bulgaria is dealt with (Bulgaria probably have a shit bargaining position the WAllies will entrench) the Romanians may just surrender to the Americans due to Wallachia having no defences at all. Or Romania becomes a neutral country.

Why does a Soviet Finland lead to a larger WAllies Germany? I don’t see the connection. Also a Soviet Finland likely leads to a very different history of Cold War diplomacy. Not to frame Finlandization as a good thing, but I’m not sure who is a driving force for something like CSCE without a neutral Finland. So I’d rather they get the OTL treatment if possible.

as ppl have said before the Salpa line would take the soviets quite a lot to break through, so it'd probably slow them down.

I can see a Soviet German Prussia if the Soviets feel penned in with a smaller sphere of influence. In that case more proxy’s are more important than destroying German militarism at its roots. They could even see such a thing as beneficial if they think they can harness it.

if they have poland I'd think the Soviets would still evict the germans, the region won't be close to the frontlines of the cold war at all.

 

[Vaeius]

I can see a Soviet German Prussia if the Soviets feel penned in with a smaller sphere of influence. In that case more proxy’s are more important than destroying German militarism at its roots. They could even see such a thing as beneficial if they think they can harness it.

This was kinda what I was thinking, maybe Konigsberg becomes Marxstadt instead.

if they have poland I'd think the Soviets would still evict the germans, the region won't be close to the frontlines of the cold war at all.

Alternatively it could go outright to Poland if the western allies take more of Germany, maybe Pomerania remains as part of whichever German states come out in the 50's.

 

[Quinkana]

This was kinda what I was thinking, maybe Konigsberg becomes Marxstadt instead.

tbf Marxstadt sounds fun if its a german state instead. What would the russian ver of the name be? Marxgrad?

Alternatively it could go outright to Poland if the western allies take more of Germany, maybe Pomerania remains as part of whichever German states come out in the 50's.

It'd depend on where the frontlines are, and I find it implausible that the Russians don't at least get to the Vistula considering that the Soviets basically where they are in otl in the Eastern front. With the Bulgarians and Romanians probably finished in otl I see the Soviets not needing to deal with occupying Bulgaria would push into Hungary while the WAllies push up to Serbia instead, so the Soviets would have more troops to deal with Finland (if they don't surrender) and Poland too.

Also I wonder where the Communist Yugoslavs are rn, I could see the region be hotly contested between the Red army and the Chetniks.

 

[Xenophonte]

That's actually a feasible scenario, both the Wallies and the Germans would encourage it ironically...

That being said even if the Soviets do pull this off and the Finn’s look like they’re about to collapse, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Swedish counter invasion try to grab as much of Finland at possible. The Alands at a minimum, but northern Finland as well seems possible.

Swedish Aland seems reasonable in the face of the worst case.

Also a Finnish SSR is interesting in its own right, and would allow the WAllies to take over more of Germany.

I think that, if the Sweden government might be alarmed/worried enough for such possibility, that it may give real chance for either an unilateral 'intervention against' Finland and/or for an alternate possibility of negotiating and siding with the Wallies, to happen ITTL.
Allowing for that an alternative/modified version of some of the OTL Allied war plans/projects such as 'Plan R 4' or even, perhaps, mixed or coupled with an adapted 'Project Catherine'. Ones that now TTL, suddenly would be turned somewhat a bit more feasible, if they would have the Swedish agreement/collaboration...

 

[ghappy1000]

So, how will Western Europe (from the Cold War and later) be defined in this timeline? In otl, all of Western Europe (during the Cold War and later) was comprised of non-communist European nations, and all were Protestant or Catholic except for Greece, Cyprus and Turkey. Since Greece was the birthplace of Western European civilisation, Greece and the only other Greek majority (on this planet otl) nation of Cyprus can be considered Western Europe even without the Cold War as a definer of what is Western (non-communist during the Cold War) Europe and what is Eastern (communist during the Cold War) Europe, thus leaving Turkey as the only odd and exclusively by Cold War standards Western European nation. For various reasons, Turkey is generally considered more Asian (West Asian or Middle Eastern) than (Western) European.

In this timeline, any logic behind classifying Turkey as (Western) European is likely gone as its European geography (its only Europeanness) is under Greek control and geography. But, Bulgaria and Romania despite their Orthodoxy would be under Western Europe and while Romania speaks a Latin language with a Latin script for writing not unlike Western Europe in Belgium, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy, but Bulgaria's Slavic language and Orthodoxy will make it more Eastern European than Western Europe and in this timeline, it will be considered Western European unlike Eastern Europe in otl and unlike its fellow Slavic and Eastern Orthodox nations in Eastern Europe otl and in this timeline.

 

[Whiteshore]

Honestly, what could be an interesting possibility could be Turkey is a leader of TTL's Non-Aligned Movement or equivalent organization if a relatively moderate regime, albeit one which has grudges against both the Western Bloc and the Soviets for pretty obvious reasons, arises here.

 

[ghappy1000]

Also, Finland will be Eastern (communist during the Cold War) Europe in this timeline. But, the definition behind Western Europe and Eastern Europe before the Cold War was Protestant and Catholic Western Europe versus non-Protestant and non-Catholic Eastern Europe, so, Protestant Finland will be better classified as Western Europe as in otl than as Eastern Europe in this timeline, geography and the Cold War not withstanding.

 

[DrakonFin]

That being said even if the Soviets do pull this off and the Finn’s look like they’re about to collapse, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Swedish counter invasion try to grab as much of Finland at possible. The Alands at a minimum, but northern Finland as well seems possible.

Realistically speaking, it would be *very* unlikely for Sweden to risk war against the USSR, an Allied power, to grab any part of Finland outside the Ålands. And even in the Ålands, the Swedish "expeditionary force" would be likely to blink first and bug out when the Soviet Navy turns up to enforce the "Finnish People's Republic's" claim to the islands.

 

[Quinkana]

Realistically speaking, it would be *very* unlikely for Sweden to risk war against the USSR, an Allied power, to grab any part of Finland outside the Ålands. And even in the Ålands, the Swedish "expeditionary force" would be likely to blink first and bug out when the Soviet Navy turns up to enforce the "Finnish People's Republic's" claim to the islandd. Sweden has no real claim to the Ålands, let alone any other part of Finland.

Tbf if the Finns fall I could see the WAllies instead taking it first since Sweden would be a lot more cooperative and the WAllies should have naval supremacy at sea to house a democratic Finnish government.

 

[DrakonFin]

Tbf if the Finns fall I could see the WAllies instead taking it first since Sweden would be a lot more cooperative and the WAllies should have naval supremacy at sea to house a democratic Finnish government.

How do the Western Allies have a naval presence on the Baltic Sea, let alone a supremacy? They had no such thing IOTL, and here as well the Danish straits would be heavily mined by 1945. It would be very dangerous and potentially costly to send a Western Allied naval expedition to the northern Baltic. Even in the summer months, let alone outside of them.

 

[Quinkana]

How do the Western Allies have a naval presence on the Baltic Sea, let alone a supremacy? They had no such thing IOTL, and here as well the Danish straits would be heavily mined by 1945. It would be very dangerous and potentially costly to send a Western Allied naval expedition to the northern Baltic. Even in the summer months, let alone outside of them.

That is very true, but if the Finnish gov moves to Aland would the WAllies not attempt to help them? Maybe they help via Sweden's cooperation, for example.

 

[Thoresby]

Poland wasn’t turned into an SSR IOTL, so it would most likely be a Finnish Democratic Republic installed after a rigged election or two.

Most of modern Poland was part of Germany prior to 1914, Finland was a part of the Russian Empire though it had a degree of autonomy so it probably gets the same treatment as the Baltic States.

 

[galileo-034]

If Bulgaria defects to the Allies, which is likely to happen sooner than later, and with Romania probable to follow suit quickly, wouldn't be Stalin hard-pressed to change his tune on Finland to reinforce the offensive against Romania, lest the Western Allies preempt him there ? Could that in fine save Helsinki and Finland from being annexed as a SSR?

That could put the Iron Curtain along the Danube if Bulgaria and Serbia/Yugoslavia remain in the western camp but Romania still falls into the Soviet sphere.

 

[Serpent]

If Bulgaria defects to the Allies, which is likely to happen sooner than later, and with Romania probable to follow suit quickly, wouldn't be Stalin hard-pressed to change his tune on Finland to reinforce the offensive against Romania, lest the Western Allies preempt him there ? Could that in fine save Helsinki and Finland from being annexed as a SSR?

That could put the Iron Curtain along the Danube if Bulgaria and Serbia/Yugoslavia remain in the western camp but Romania still falls into the Soviet sphere.

It's far more possible I'd say to see half of Hungary in the western camp than Romania...

 

[Serpent]

Honestly, what could be an interesting possibility could be Turkey is a leader of TTL's Non-Aligned Movement or equivalent organization if a relatively moderate regime, albeit one which has grudges against both the Western Bloc and the Soviets for pretty obvious reasons, arises here.

I don't think there's a single chance of Turkey staying non-aligned...

Not with Soviet boots on their soil...

And don't forget the borders with Greece, the moment the Turks piss off the Soviets, they can say fuck 'em and pull out altogether, Greece would immediately launch a continuation war...

 

[Quinkana]

If Bulgaria defects to the Allies, which is likely to happen sooner than later, and with Romania probable to follow suit quickly, wouldn't be Stalin hard-pressed to change his tune on Finland to reinforce the offensive against Romania, lest the Western Allies preempt him there ? Could that in fine save Helsinki and Finland from being annexed as a SSR?

That could put the Iron Curtain along the Danube if Bulgaria and Serbia/Yugoslavia remain in the western camp but Romania still falls into the Soviet sphere.

I think the Iron curtain's front lines would be Hungary and Slovakia being under the control of the USSR too, and Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina under the Communist Yugoslavs being a friendly and a lot more tight-knit to the USSR. I could see Romania being split between Democratic Romania in Wallachia and Transylvania and Moldavia being under the ittl Warsaw pact too.

It's far more possible I'd say to see half of Hungary in the western camp than Romania...

We'd probably see the Russians go through by going through Romania or from Slovakia while the WAllies are preoccupied with Serbia.

I don't think there's a single chance of Turkey staying non-aligned...

Not with Soviet boots on their soil...

And don't forget the borders with Greece, the moment the Turks piss off the Soviets, they can say fuck 'em and pull out altogether, Greece would immediately launch a continuation war...

I don't think its Greece that'll launch a continuation war for Canakkale, since the region's surrounded by Greece and taking it would be rather easy. Rather, it is Turkey fearing that the people (which should have a bunch of naturalised Russians as time goes by, and I don't see the Russians not colonising the region) become more and more Russian and becoming more amiable to the Greeks bc they don't want to be part of Turkey and Russia is too weak to protect them in the future.

 

[Khan Doomy]

I don't think there's a single chance of Turkey staying non-aligned...

Not with Soviet boots on their soil...

And don't forget the borders with Greece, the moment the Turks piss off the Soviets, they can say fuck 'em and pull out altogether, Greece would immediately launch a continuation war...

Why would Greece launch a continuation war?

 

[Duke of Orlando]

It's far more possible I'd say to see half of Hungary in the western camp than Romania...

If were discussing who in Europe is going to end up in the western camp (which isn’t exactly the “West” any more as noted by @ghappy1000 ) I think they end up in 4 categories, ignoring the OTL members for the most part.

1. Almost certainty. To me it feels like at least some of Yugoslavia, and probably all of Albania, ends up as founding members of the “Western” camp. I think that part of Yugoslavia ends up being the Serbian, Macedonian, Montenegrin, and Kosovar portions. I also think Spain is much more likely to be a member of the wider European community ITTL.

2. Decent chance. Bulgaria basically. All conventional signs point to yes but Prince Michaels Coup was a surprise OTL as well. Plus there’s always the chance of Bulgarian communists make a move. If the Soviets take Finland I think Sweden is also in this category

3. Need more info/ Toss up. Austria, more of Germany, Slovenia, Turkey, Czechia, the rest of Yugoslavia. I can see any and all of these finding there way into the Western sphere depending on what happens. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them go elsewhere.

4. Almost certainly not. Poland, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia. Barring a major Soviet set back I don’t see it happening.

 

[Lascaris]

Realistically speaking, it would be *very* unlikely for Sweden to risk war against the USSR, an Allied power, to grab any part of Finland outside the Ålands. And even in the Ålands, the Swedish "expeditionary force" would be likely to blink first and bug out when the Soviet Navy turns up to enforce the "Finnish People's Republic's" claim to the islands.

I'm... undecided. The Swedes in May 1944 were dusting off "Operation X" their plan to move about two brigades of troops in Aland and defend it "to the utmost" and apparently were in contact with the Finnish government and hoping the Finns would accept Swedish takeover without a fight. But there is frustratingly little more detail to be found about the operation. But interesting there was at least one book in Finnish by a Jukka L Mäklä who was apparently a intelligence officer during the war turned popular historian claiming Finland feared a Swedish invasion of Ahvenanmaa and that the Swedish navy had started to sweep sea mines outside the Åland Islands at the time of the Vyborg offensive.

So... I 'd like more information if it was available.