Plausibility Check: Communist Russia

Cyclone

Instead of surviving his July 1995 heart attack, Yeltsin perishes. Viktor Chernomyrdin becomes the Acting President, and he stinks up the office real bad, basically killing his party's chances for winning the election and pushing the country a little more to the left.

The result is that in the 1995 legislative elections, Our Home - Russia doesn't pass the 5% threshhold for seats given for proportional representation, while the RKRP (a Leninist party) does (historically, they missed by less than half a percent). The consequence of this is that the KPRF can put together a slim majority coalition with the RKRP, the Agrarian party, and various minor parties and candidates. The coalition puts a full stop on privatization. In 1996, Chernomyrdin doesn't run (figuring he wouldn't win) and Zyuganov beats Lebed, in part by playing the role of the moderate nationalist leftist against Lebed's platform of "Pinochet was right."

Plausible or no?
 
oshron

oshron

i dont know much about russian history of the time, but it sounds plausible to me. though i doubt that communism in russia would persist for much longer in any case
 

MSZ

Banned
Well, the parliamentary majority here would be slim and unstable; also, it is hard to say if the RKRP was in fact Leninist at the time, or de facto more Social-Democratic. Most post-communist countries had a period when the successors of their former stalinist parties were in charge, without turning back to real-deal communism, but accepting market reforms. So Russia with the RKRP in charge doesn't automatically mean a return to the USSR.

On the other hand, the Presidential power in Russia was much more powerful than in any other post-communist country; the population there was more "western" and genuinly supported democratisation, while Russia always had authoritarian-leaning tendencies; then there would be a conflict in the Caucassus to deal with, further making it easier for the leadership to rally the population behind it. It would most likely depend on how Zyuganov would act once his in power - stopping privatisation is one thing, reintroducing fixed prices and state-funded full employment is another, something Russia may not have the resources to do.
 

Cyclone

MSZ said:
Well, the parliamentary majority here would be slim and unstable; also, it is hard to say if the RKRP was in fact Leninist at the time, or de facto more Social-Democratic. Most post-communist countries had a period when the successors of their former stalinist parties were in charge, without turning back to real-deal communism, but accepting market reforms. So Russia with the RKRP in charge doesn't automatically mean a return to the USSR.
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I mean, not necessarily literally Leninist, but something very hard left, a very serious party, unlike the "bend like a reed in the storm" KPRF, which gets so much shit from Russians for being a weak, regime-supported/supporting party that some propose Zyuganov let Yeltsin win.
MSZ said:
On the other hand, the Presidential power in Russia was much more powerful than in any other post-communist country; the population there was more "western" and genuinly supported democratisation, while Russia always had authoritarian-leaning tendencies; then there would be a conflict in the Caucassus to deal with, further making it easier for the leadership to rally the population behind it. It would most likely depend on how Zyuganov would act once his in power - stopping privatisation is one thing, reintroducing fixed prices and state-funded full employment is another, something Russia may not have the resources to do.
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In terms of economic policy, I'm thinking of something like Belarus. Privatization dies, and the government prosecutes and re-nationalizes several companies for fraud (like Yukos but more). The result is an economy with a huge state sector, surviving collectivization, etc. A minority of the economy would still be private, like in Belarus.
 

Cyclone

Here's a basic outline of a TL:
1995: Yeltsin dies, Chernomyrdin succeeds him. The KPRF takes a thin control of parliament, forces the remainder of Chernomyrdin's term to have absolutely nothing happen.
1996: With no serious moderate candidates, and the oligarchs divided on who to support, Zyuganov wins in 1996.
1996-2000: Privatization is turned back, the economy starts to recover from the Yeltsin years, the KPRF wins a lot of public support. Russia begins to make some connections with various leftist regimes elsewhere (e.g. Cuba)
2000-2004: Belarussian-Russian ties become very strong, very close. Probably annexation by the end of the period.
2004-2012: Russia develops back towards being a very important nation, Kazakhstan falls heavily within its sphere of influence (possibly even gets annexed), maybe Ukraine too.
 

Kooluk Swordsman

Cyclone said:
Here's a basic outline of a TL:
1995: Yeltsin dies, Chernomyrdin succeeds him. The KPRF takes a thin control of parliament, forces the remainder of Chernomyrdin's term to have absolutely nothing happen.
1996: With no serious moderate candidates, and the oligarchs divided on who to support, Zyuganov wins in 1996.
1996-2000: Privatization is turned back, the economy starts to recover from the Yeltsin years, the KPRF wins a lot of public support. Russia begins to make some connections with various leftist regimes elsewhere (e.g. Cuba)
2000-2004: Belarussian-Russian ties become very strong, very close. Probably annexation by the end of the period.
2004-2012: Russia develops back towards being a very important nation, Kazakhstan falls heavily within its sphere of influence (possibly even gets annexed), maybe Ukraine too.
Click to expand...

No. Nations don't recover from decades of decline in a few years and leap back onto the world's stage.
 
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