Revanchist Non Nazi Germany starts WW2, can they win?

[Kurd Gossemer]

The premise is very simple, instead of the Nazis being the ones in power, it's the same Weimar Republic but with a leading party who also controls the parliament for the whole war for simplification sake's and they have just started WW2 by invading Poland after a secret deal with the USSR to restore some borders at the expanse of the Poles.

The thing is, Germany dosen't have any grand megalomaniac projects in the East and wants instead focus on Britain and France and get revenge over what they saw as a humiliation of their homeland.

The question is, could Germany actually win this since they don't have the Nazi party to divert resources to something like the Holocaust or the invasion and occupation of the whole eastern Europe?

 

[eretzyegern]

They could last longer in my humble opinion, but IF they make the same enemies they still crumble.

 

[Avrorrange]

Really depends.We shouldn’t take Operation Sickle Cut for granted since it was a risky plan that was only approved because of Hitler for example.There was also a monumental amount of luck behind it.Otherwise Germany would still lose if drawn into a war of attrition.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Megalomaniac plans of Third Reich were irrelevant on 3 September 1939, it would change little in initial stages of ww2.

 

[Thoresby]

Germany can't win a world war. The moment it becomes a world war, the will lose because of their geographical position means they can be isolated from the world economy and ground down.

However a non Nazi Germany can absolutely rectify the Versailles settlement by force of arms providing it plays it smart and avoids turning a series of localised conflicts into a world war.

 

[Salvador79]

I don't see any Weimar political force, beyond the Nazis, who had such aggressive action on their agenda and would be even willing to put it into practice, instead of just talking about how unfair Versailles was.
AND I don't see any Weimar party amassing enough power, as you outlined above. It would always be fragile coalitions who would break apart before any such crazy stuff could happen.

You might have a slightly better chance to actually conduct a war with a military dictatorship. But then, at least half-rational military leaders would not want to get Germany into a war against Britain and France at the same time if their only major ally is the Soviets, whom many German military leaders considered military incapable (a legacy from the Operation Faustschlag perhaps, or from how the Soviets were beaten back by the Poles).

Killing off Hitler on September 3rd, 1939, also doesn't do the trick. Nazi successors would continue doing mad Nazi shit, while a military coup would probably aim at a restoration of peace ("oops, sorry, didn't mean to invade Poland, it was just that crazy Austrian's mad idea"), not a continuation of the war in a different manner.
And killing him in 1940 after the Sickle Cut would be so immensely unpopular that no putschist could ever hope to hold on to power.

No, I think there is no plausible way to have Germany start any recognisable WW2 without Nazis in power. It's just another Notzi delusion.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

The premise is very simple, instead of the Nazis being the ones in power, it's the same Weimar Republic but with a leading party who also controls the parliament for the whole war for simplification sake's and they have just started WW2 by invading Poland after a secret deal with the USSR to restore some borders at the expanse of the Poles.

Your POD is interesting, but not enough of a change to make the same war a victory, just because there are no Nazi's.

The thing is, Germany doesn't have any grand megalomaniac projects in the East and wants instead focus on Britain and France and get revenge over what they saw as a humiliation of their homeland.

That sounds interesting, but just fighting Britain and France straight up still ends up in a loss. I picture a non-Nazi Germany as being more stable, more prosperous, but militarily weaker as they don't go so far into a rearmament debt spiral.

The question is, could Germany actually win this since they don't have the Nazi party to divert resources to something like the Holocaust or the invasion and occupation of the whole eastern Europe?

Short answer, No.

If you want some ideas for a different way to go about a second WWII, where Germany uses diplomacy, treachery, deception, and a modicum of brains, I'll be happy to share some of the ideas that your thread had popping into my mind when I read the title.

Interested?

 

[Kurd Gossemer]

Your POD is interesting, but not enough of a change to make the same war a victory, just because there are no Nazi's.

That sounds interesting, but just fighting Britain and France straight up still ends up in a loss. I picture a non-Nazi Germany as being more stable, more prosperous, but militarily weaker as they don't go so far into a rearmament debt spiral.

Short answer, No.

If you want some ideas for a different way to go about a second WWII, where Germany uses diplomacy, treachery, deception, and a modicum of brains, I'll be happy to share some of the ideas that your thread had popping into my mind when I read the title.

Interested?

Yeah sure! Would love to hear what's on your mind

 

[Questerr]

If they fight a very limited war for very limited objectives, maybe.

For instance, fighting only for Danzig and making it clear they won’t take any further Polish territory.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Yeah sure! Would love to hear what's on your mind

Ok, this is a very different WWII, but still meets your OP, at least sorta.

1) POD is Japans invasion of Manchuria, Sep 1931. Germany, which has already been re-arming for a few years, but on a low key and much smaller basis, decided to offer their services too China, in the form of weapons, training, advisors and whatnot.

2) By the time of the Marco polo Bridge Incident, in July 1937, the Germans have helped train a number of Chinese divisions to professional level, and the German 'advisors', now consisting of two full Infantry divisions, sharply slap the Japanese back, leading to a stillborn second Sino-Japanese war.

3) Diplomatically, the Germans point out that if the Japanese attempt to use their fleet to blockade the Chinese ports, the ongoing Germans arms trade will simply off load in French Indochina and proceed overland. If the Japanese attempt too use force in a colony of France, that could lead to Japan having to fight France, and potentially Britain as well, if things were to get out of hand.

4) Using a bit of subterfuge, and playing all sides against each other, the Germans note that, if Japan were to find themselves at war with either France, Britain, or the USSR at some future date, a strong anti -communist China might be a useful ally.

5) During the 6 years between Germany's entry into China's military needs, they are rapidly rebuilding their armed forces, at least an army and an airforce. Naval buildup will not be anything like historical, rather the Germans build a vast money making merchant marine, with a great many tankers/oilers, to ensure continued trade even without bases in strategic places, both for profit in S American and SE Asian markets, and to help their ability to ship arms and ammunition in large amounts to China.

6) In a curious turn of events, small arms find their way from China into Vietnam, at first in just a small trickle, but then suddenly turn into a flood, and France is faced with a small, but fast growing insurgency, and has to start sending more and more troops to SE Asia to hold on too her Colony.

7) As France enters into her second year of costly fighting to retain her colony, fighting breaks out between the Japanese and the USSR, but then Germany intercedes, and points out that China, having been forced to fight communists in the western regions, is not happy with the USSR, and might just decide to lend a hand to the Japanese if something cannot be worked out, and Germany would really like to avoid being dragged into such a situation on the side of the Chinese/Japanese war with the USSR.

8) In fall of 1939, by a masterful stroke of chicanery, Germany manages to stop the wars in SE Asia, and talks China, Japan, and the USSR into a pact where they all agree not to fight each other for the next ten years, and in fact try to find common ground, and mutual economic advantage.

9) Back in Europe, the Germans and Soviets conclude an agreement called the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, and shortly there after, Poland gets a surprise, and with France having to fight an expensive and troop intensive war in SE Asia, what does the West do in response?

There we go, best I can come up with at the moment, but should be good for some interesting ideas and discussion, as the forces are not what they were in OTL, and the balance of power is different, so...

Have fun with it.

 

[Salvador79]

Ok, this is a very different WWII, but still meets your OP, at least sorta.

1) POD is Japans invasion of Manchuria, Sep 1931. Germany, which has already been re-arming for a few years, but on a low key and much smaller basis, decided to offer their services too China, in the form of weapons, training, advisors and whatnot.

2) By the time of the Marco polo Bridge Incident, in July 1937, the Germans have helped train a number of Chinese divisions to professional level, and the German 'advisors', now consisting of two full Infantry divisions, sharply slap the Japanese back, leading to a stillborn second Sino-Japanese war.

3) Diplomatically, the Germans point out that if the Japanese attempt to use their fleet to blockade the Chinese ports, the ongoing Germans arms trade will simply off load in French Indochina and proceed overland. If the Japanese attempt too use force in a colony of France, that could lead to Japan having to fight France, and potentially Britain as well, if things were to get out of hand.

4) Using a bit of subterfuge, and playing all sides against each other, the Germans note that, if Japan were to find themselves at war with either France, Britain, or the USSR at some future date, a strong anti -communist China might be a useful ally.

5) During the 6 years between Germany's entry into China's military needs, they are rapidly rebuilding their armed forces, at least an army and an airforce. Naval buildup will not be anything like historical, rather the Germans build a vast money making merchant marine, with a great many tankers/oilers, to ensure continued trade even without bases in strategic places, both for profit in S American and SE Asian markets, and to help their ability to ship arms and ammunition in large amounts to China.

6) In a curious turn of events, small arms find their way from China into Vietnam, at first in just a small trickle, but then suddenly turn into a flood, and France is faced with a small, but fast growing insurgency, and has to start sending more and more troops to SE Asia to hold on too her Colony.

7) As France enters into her second year of costly fighting to retain her colony, fighting breaks out between the Japanese and the USSR, but then Germany intercedes, and points out that China, having been forced to fight communists in the western regions, is not happy with the USSR, and might just decide to lend a hand to the Japanese if something cannot be worked out, and Germany would really like to avoid being dragged into such a situation on the side of the Chinese/Japanese war with the USSR.

8) In fall of 1939, by a masterful stroke of chicanery, Germany manages to stop the wars in SE Asia, and talks China, Japan, and the USSR into a pact where they all agree not to fight each other for the next ten years, and in fact try to find common ground, and mutual economic advantage.

9) Back in Europe, the Germans and Soviets conclude an agreement called the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, and shortly there after, Poland gets a surprise, and with France having to fight an expensive and troop intensive war in SE Asia, what does the West do in response?

There we go, best I can come up with at the moment, but should be good for some interesting ideas and discussion, as the forces are not what they were in OTL, and the balance of power is different, so...

Have fun with it.

Weimar foreign policy was leagues better than Wilhelmine one, OK, but this level of masterful cunning is really quite a bit much!

 

[AT0N]

Ok, this is a very different WWII, but still meets your OP, at least sorta.

1) POD is Japans invasion of Manchuria, Sep 1931. Germany, which has already been re-arming for a few years, but on a low key and much smaller basis, decided to offer their services too China, in the form of weapons, training, advisors and whatnot.

2) By the time of the Marco polo Bridge Incident, in July 1937, the Germans have helped train a number of Chinese divisions to professional level, and the German 'advisors', now consisting of two full Infantry divisions, sharply slap the Japanese back, leading to a stillborn second Sino-Japanese war.

3) Diplomatically, the Germans point out that if the Japanese attempt to use their fleet to blockade the Chinese ports, the ongoing Germans arms trade will simply off load in French Indochina and proceed overland. If the Japanese attempt too use force in a colony of France, that could lead to Japan having to fight France, and potentially Britain as well, if things were to get out of hand.

4) Using a bit of subterfuge, and playing all sides against each other, the Germans note that, if Japan were to find themselves at war with either France, Britain, or the USSR at some future date, a strong anti -communist China might be a useful ally.

5) During the 6 years between Germany's entry into China's military needs, they are rapidly rebuilding their armed forces, at least an army and an airforce. Naval buildup will not be anything like historical, rather the Germans build a vast money making merchant marine, with a great many tankers/oilers, to ensure continued trade even without bases in strategic places, both for profit in S American and SE Asian markets, and to help their ability to ship arms and ammunition in large amounts to China.

6) In a curious turn of events, small arms find their way from China into Vietnam, at first in just a small trickle, but then suddenly turn into a flood, and France is faced with a small, but fast growing insurgency, and has to start sending more and more troops to SE Asia to hold on too her Colony.

7) As France enters into her second year of costly fighting to retain her colony, fighting breaks out between the Japanese and the USSR, but then Germany intercedes, and points out that China, having been forced to fight communists in the western regions, is not happy with the USSR, and might just decide to lend a hand to the Japanese if something cannot be worked out, and Germany would really like to avoid being dragged into such a situation on the side of the Chinese/Japanese war with the USSR.

8) In fall of 1939, by a masterful stroke of chicanery, Germany manages to stop the wars in SE Asia, and talks China, Japan, and the USSR into a pact where they all agree not to fight each other for the next ten years, and in fact try to find common ground, and mutual economic advantage.

9) Back in Europe, the Germans and Soviets conclude an agreement called the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact, and shortly there after, Poland gets a surprise, and with France having to fight an expensive and troop intensive war in SE Asia, what does the West do in response?

There we go, best I can come up with at the moment, but should be good for some interesting ideas and discussion, as the forces are not what they were in OTL, and the balance of power is different, so...

Have fun with it.

Sounds kinda ASB from a logistics point for Weimar Germany to pull off smuggling weapons to Indochina.

 

[Hammerbolt]

A WWII was being predicted by some almost as soon as WWI ended. The german armed forces started analying the war and preparing tactics and equipment (even if on paper) for the next one. Hitler started the rearmament, but the planning started long before he came up. But the main problems remain German's economy and industry; Hitler got Germany where it was, in September 1939, by brute-forcing it's economy into war production (but not war pacing, which was another problem...), stripping anyone he could of their money (not just jews) and grabbing Czechoslovakia and Austria, two huge industrial and manpower resources. If the nazis are not in power, then it follows we get someone that, while still nationalist, most likely won't go this far. Which means we get to 1939 with a much military weaker Germany (although possibly richer, because no war production?). So... while maybe it can still grab Poland (because Blitkrieg) and Norway, (because geography) it won't have the numbers, in men and materiel, to properly attack France, Belgium, the Netherlands...

 

[Ambusher11]

If it's just a war with Poland and France, they probably could by the mid-1940s have an army powerful enough to defeat Poland. But if Britain still declares war on Germany? Yeah, Germany is almost certainly doomed in the long run.

 

[Hammerbolt]

If it's just a war with Poland and France, they probably could by the mid-1940s have an army powerful enough to defeat Poland. But if Britain still declares war on Germany? Yeah, Germany is almost certainly doomed in the long run.

Don't forget that Poland (and everyone else...) was also rearming. If you wait for mid 40s, Germany would face not a handfull of 7TP tanks, but multiple batalions, as well as at least some of it's sucessor, the 14TP. The air force would have quantities of the PZL37 bomber and PZL50 fighter, Hurricanes and whatever else they buy. And France and UK would also be much stronger.

 

[psteinx]

So (most) everything up through ~Sept '39 is OTL, *EXCEPT* it's a non-nazi party controlling Germany.

I don't think implementation of the Holocaust was a major resource drain, up through the point of the war when the Germans still had a real shot (sometime in '41, IMO). Nor general German brutality in the East - they have to occupy it in some fashion - gentle occupation vs. rough is probably not a huge swing, through '41, on their war resources.

Assuming they're able to knock France out as in our OTL, then the real question is what comes after. Part of the reason that the UK had little to no interest in a negotiated peace in 1940 was that they (correctly) deemed Hitler deeply untrustworthy, because of Czechoslovakia/Munich, etc. If this ATL Germany had done the same prior actions, then it would face ~the same results. If this Germany had been generally reliable UNTIL Poland, then who knows. But then again, if this OTL Germany had not made any really aggressive moves until Poland (i.e. no Czechoslovakia actions at all), then maybe France and UK never declared war in September, '39.

It's similar with the US. The US's deepening involvement with the war was a consequence of multiple factors, including German actions pre-September '39.

I don't think this OTL Germany can pull off Sea Lion or beat the Western powers, once the US enters the war (*IF* the US enters). But do the major diplomatic/strategic issues of the war (who's in, who's out) play out the same? That's the key.

 

[Fulano]

It would need better allies than OTL, that's for sure. If, for example, this revanchist Germany is a communist, soviet-aligned, regime (thanks to a successful communist revolution at the end of WWI) it could have a chance.

 

[Naval Aviation Fan]

Weimar foreign policy was leagues better than Wilhelmine one, OK, but this level of masterful cunning is really quite a bit much!

Otto von Bismarck

Sounds kinda ASB from a logistics point for Weimar Germany to pull off smuggling weapons to Indochina.

Sino-German cooperation.

 

[Garrison]

Fundamental problem is that any more rational German regime is not going to spend the ludicrous amount of GDP on the military the Nazis did and is highly unlikely to be as eager for war as Hitler was.

 

[AT0N]

Sino-German cooperation.

I know about this. But how would you make it physically possible for the Germans to pass through the French naval guard to support the insurgency in Indochina? Even if it is done through mainland China, who woul they exactly support? Was there any major organized anti-colonial ressistance in Indochina during late 30s and early 40s?