Scraping a Very Narrow Conservative Party Victory: A timeline from 1929

[pipisme]

Polling stations closed at 8 pm in the general election in the UK on 30 May 1929. The first result declared was Oxford. The percentage votes for each party were (1924 general election):
Conservative: 55.2 (57.3)
Liberal: 29.4 (32.1)
Labour: 15.4 (10.6)
----------------------------------
Conservative: 25.8 (25.2)
--------------------------------
This result was better than the Conservatives expected and worse than the Liberals hoped. However they did better as more results came in. They gained Great Yarmouth, Manchester Withington, and Nottingham East from Conservative, and Bethnal Green North East, and Newcastle-upon-Tyne East from Labour. But they lost several seats to Labour, which took dozens of seats from Conservative.

The Liberals did better when the results were declared the following day. Among the seats they gained from the Conservatives were: Banffshire, Bedfordshire Mid, Cornwall North, Dumfriesshire, Flintshire, Isle of Ely, Luton, and Pembrokeshire. Also Labour continued taking constituencies from Conservative and Liberal.

It was not until the late afternoon of 31 May that the Tories had a majority of seats in the House of Commons. The number of seats won by each party were as follows (1924 general election):
Conservative: 309 (412)
Labour: 255 (151)
Liberal: 42 (40)
Nationalist: 3 (1)
Independent Labour: 1 (n/a)
Scottish Prohibition: 1 (1)
Independents: 4 (2)
(Constitutionalist: 7)
(Communist: 1)
-------------------------
Total: 615 (615)
-----------------------
Because the Speaker was elected as a Conservative, the Conservative majority over all others was only two (308 to 306). Compared with the 1924 general election, the Liberals gained 15 seats from Conservative, two from Labour and one from Constitutionalist, but lost 15 to Labour and one to Independent.
The number of votes for each party were:
Conservative: 9,263,185 (7,854,523)
Labour: 8,063,821 (5,489,087)
Liberal: 5,005,291 (2,928737)
Others: 317, 078 (367,932)
------------------------------------------
Total: 22,648. 375 (16,640,229)
-----------------------------------------
The percentage votes for each party were:
Conservative: 40.9 (47.2)
Labour: 35.6 (33.0)
Liberal: 22.1 (17.6)
Others: 1.4 (2.2)
--------------------------
Total: 100.0 (100.0)
-------------------------

On 3 and 4 June, the Prime Minister, Stanley Baldwin, made the following changes to his government:
Winston Churchill from Chancellor of the Exchequer to Foreign Secretary,
Austen Chamberlain from Foreign Secretary to Home Secretary in place of William Joynson-Hicks who resigned,
Neville Chamberlain from Minister of Health to Chancellor of the Exchequer,
Sir Arthur Steel-Maitland from Minister of Labour to Minister of Health,
Sir John Gilmour from Scotland Secretary to Minister of Labour,
Walter Eliott from Under-Secretary Scottish Office to Scotland Secretary,
Leo Amery from Colonial and Dominion Affairs Secretary to India Secretary, Sir Samuel Hoare from Secretary of State for Air to Colonial Secretary,
Viscount Peel from India Secretary to Lord President of the Council in place of Earl Balfour who resigned,
Alfred Duff Cooper from Financial Secretary War Office to Secretary of State for Air,
Anthony Eden appointed Under Secretary Foreign Office in place of Godfrey Locker-Lampson who resigned,
Earl of Plymouth promoted from Under-Secretary Dominion Affairs Secretary to Dominion Affairs Secretary.

I would like to thank @gaitskellitebevanite who suggested the idea in the thread 'Re-run: Lloyd George takes office 1930 or 1931'.

 

[pipisme]

The Conservatives were pleased and relieved that they just about won the general election. No cabinet ministers lost their seats. The only government ministers who did were Sir Thomas Inskip, Attorney-General, to Labour in Bristol Central, and Sir William Cope, Comptroller of the Household (a Government Whip) in Llandaff and Barry, also to Labour.

 

[pipisme]

Baldwin promoted Sir Frank Merriman from Solicitor-General to Attorney-General, and appointed James Galbraith, Conservative MP for Surrey East, as Solicitor-General.

Labour were more or less pleased with the general election result. They had achieved their highest number of MPs and their highest number of votes. They had a net gain of 104 seats compared with the 1924 general election, They would have liked to have won a majority of seats, or even have become the largest party in the House of Commons, but they knew thay had a steep mountaon to climb,

The Liberals were bitterly disappointed that they only had a net gain of two seats compared with 1924, George Lambert, who regained South Molton from the Conservatives, wrote four days after the election: 'The future of the old party hardly bears thinking about,' (1)

(1) Quotation taken from Peace, Reform and Liberation: A History of Liberal Politics in Britain 1679- 2011 , edited by Robert Ingham and Duncan Brack, London: Biteback Publoshing Ltd, 2011.

 

[pipisme]

Two former Liberal cabinet ministers failed to be elected to the House of Commons. Walter Runciman in St. Ives, and Sir Herbert Samuel in Darwen. When the Liberal Parliamentary Party met on 27 June 1929, it was dejected and fractious. Liberal MPs blamed Lloyd George for the party's mediocre performance in the general election. He told them that he would resign as party leader if they elected another leader.

Sir John Simon was a former senior cabinet minister. He was uneasy with Lloyd George's leadership. But after consulting party colleagues he discovered that he had little support for a leadership challenge. After conssulting with friends and colleagues, George Lambert agreed to stand for the party leadership. The result of the election on 4 July 1929, was Lambert 32 votes, Lloyd George 10 votes. So Lambert became leader of the Liberal Party. He was 63 years old (born 2 June 1866), Liberal MP for South Molton (in Devon) from 1891 to October 1924, and from May 1929. He was Civil Lord of the Admiralty from December 1905 to June 1915. Percy Harris, Liberal MP for Bethnal Green South West, became deputy leader of the party.

 

[TimTurner]

The Tories are now stuck holding the bag when the Depression hits.

 

[pipisme]

The King's Speech was on Tuesday 2 July 1929. The government's legislative programme for the parliamentary session which it set out was foreshadowed in the Conservative Party election manifesto. See
http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1929/1929-conservative-manifesto.shtml. Among the items in the government's programme was a bill to give new powers to local authorities in England and Wales, to enable them to acquisition old houses, and recondition and manage them (there would be separate legislation for Scotland), and a bill to consolidate and improve the Acts relating to children and young people. There would be a comprehensive enquiry into the best methods of providing for the health and welfare of children aged between one and five years old. The pensionable age for blind persons would be reduced from fifty to forty.

The Twickenham by-election on 1 August 1929, caused by the elevation of Sir William Joynson-Hicks to the peerage as Lord Brentford, was won for the Conservatives by Sir Thomas Inskip, the former Attorney-General who lost his seat to Labour in the general election.

 

[John Farson]

Black Thursday is less than three months away... I imagine this government will really get it in the neck once the Depression hits the UK.

 

[pipisme]

In the elections to the Executive Committee of the Parliamentary Labour Party (shadow cabinet) in July 1929, Ramsay MacDonald and James Clynes were re-elected unopposed as leader and deputy leader of the Labour Party respectively. The other twelve members elected by Labour MPs were as follows, in order of votes received from highest to lowest:
1. Arthur Henderson
2. Philip Snowden
3. William Graham
4. Thomas Johnston
5. James Thomas
6. Hugh Dalton
7. Hastings Lees-Smith
8. William Adamson
9. Sir Charles Trevelyan
10. Thomas Shaw
11. Emmanuel Shinwell
12. Albert Victor Alexander,
Sir Oswald Mosley stood as a candidate but was not elected. However MacDonald appointed him as a junior Labour spokesman on employment.

The Wall Street stock market crash on 24 October 1929 happened as in OTL. The Conservative government's policies for dealing with the economic depression and the rise in unemployment were cuts in public spending, limited tariffs to protect industries, and imperial preference, which was preferential tariffs or no tariffs on imports from countries in the British Empire. However many Conservative MPs wanted Empire Free Trade. This was free trade within the British Empire as a single economic unit, with tariffs on imports from outside the Empire. But Baldwin and his cabinet did not adopt that policy.

The Nottigham Central by-election on 27 May 1930, caused by the death of Sir Albert Bennett (Conservative), was a Laboue gain from Conservative. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (1929 general election):
Alfred Waterson (Labour Co-operative): 39.7 (31.8)
Conservative: 34.6 (44,4)
Liberal: 25,7 (23.8)

The Bromley by-election caused by the death of Cuthbert James (Conservative) was held on 2 September 1930. It was a Liberal gain from Conservative. The percentage votes were:
Wilfred Fordham (Liberal): 35.9 (32.8)
United Empire: 24.1 (n/a) (1)
Conservative: 22.8 (49,9)
Labour: 17.2 (17.3)

The Paddington South by-election on 30 October 1930, caused by the death of Albert King (Conservative) was an Empire Crusade gain from Conservative. King was elected unopposed in 1929. The percentage votes were:
Ernest Taylor (Empire Crusade): 37.4
Labour: 34.4
Conservative: 26.5
United Empire Party: 1.7.

After these by-elections the number of seats for each party, and Independents, in the House of Commons were as follows:
Conservative: 305
Labour: 258
Liberal: 43
Nationalist: 2
Empire Crusade: 1
Socialist Prohibition: 1
Independents : 4
Speaker: 1
--------------
Total: 615
--------------
Although the Conservative Party was in a minority in the House of Commons, Labour and Liberals did not table a motion of no confidence in the government. Three of the four Independents and the Empire Crusade MP would not vote for such a motion, and might vote with the government.

(1) For United Empire Party see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empire_Free_Trade_Crusade.

 

[pipisme]

In April 1930, the government reduced the weekly rate of unemployment benefit from 17 shillings to 15 shillings and three pence for men, and from 15 shillings to 13 shillings and sixpence for women. Also benefit claimants had to prove that they were 'genuinely seeking work'. In June 1930, the right to unemployment benefit was removed from seasonal and part time workers, and many married women.

The Renfrewshire East by-election on 28 November 1930, caused by the death of Alexander Munro MacRobert (Conservative) was a Labour gain from Conservative. The percentage votes for each party were as follows (1929 general election):
Labour: 48.7 (45.8)
Conservative: 39.5 (54.2)
National Party of Scotland: 11.8 (n/a).

In OTL, this by-election was won by the Conservative candidate.

 

[clem attlee]

Delighted to see another TL with an interesting premise.

 

[pipisme]

Delighted to see another TL with an interesting premise.

Thank you. I'm glad you like this TL.

In OTL Stafford Cripps was parachuted in as the Labour candidate for the safe Labour seat of Bristol East in the by-election on 16 January 1931, because he had been appointed Solicitor-General, and he needed to be an MP. In tbis timeline, the Labour candidate was Marion Phillips, chief women's officer of the Labour Party. (1) She was not elected Labour MP for Sunderland in the 1929 general election.

The Leeds Central by- election, caused by the death of Sir Charles Wilson (Conservative), was held on 5 February 1931 It was won by Labour. The percentage votes for each candidate were as follows (1929 general election):
Labour: 53.2 (43.2)
Conservative: 35.8 (43.7)
Liberal: 11.0 (13.9).

The Salisbury by-election on Wednesday 11 March 19, caused by the resignation of Hugh Morrison (Conservative), was a Liberal gain from Cohservative. The percentage votes were:
Lberal: 45.8 (38.0)
Conservative: 40.0 (50.0)
Labour: 14.2 (12.0).
The Liberal candidate was Lucy Masterman, the widow of Charles Masterman, one time Liberal MP and government minister. (2)

After the Salisbury by-election, the composition of the House of Commons was Conservative: 301, Labour: 259. Liberal: 44, Nationalist: 2, Empire Crusade: 1, Socialist Prohibition: (SPP) 1, Independents: 4 , Speaker: 1. Total: 312. There were by-elections pending on 19 March in the Conservative seat of Westminster: St, George 's, and the Labour constituency of Pontypridd. Labour plus Liberal, Nationalist, SPP, and the Independent, Eleanor Rathbone, now had 307 MPs,

On 16 March, the Labour and Liberal parties tabled a motion of no confidence in the gpvernment. It was debated in the House of Commons on 18 March. It was passed by 309 votes to 303 votes. Ernest Taylor, Empire Crusade, and Sir Thomas Robinson, Independent, voted for the motion. Two Independent MPs, Ernest Graham-Little, and Sir Robert Newman, voted against the motion.

The next day, Stanley Baldwin announced in the House of Commons that Parliament would be dissolved on 20 March 1931, and general election take place on Thursday 17 April 1931, with nominations closing on 6 April.

(1) See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marion_Phillips.

(2) For Lucy Masterman see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Masterman.

 

[TimTurner]

Dread it, run from it, a 1931 general election arrives all the same.

 

[sarahz]

Dread it, run from it, a 1931 general election arrives all the same.

the Tories are going to get hammered... But then what Snowden was worse than they were in terms of a response to the depresssion

 

[TimTurner]

the Tories are going to get hammered... But then what Snowden was worse than they were in terms of a response to the depresssion

1929 was a good election for the Tories to lose IOTL.
Here they won't be as likely.

 

[Pangur]

A Tory defeat also may also have interesting effects in Australia. James Scullin/Labor won the 1929 GE and he took office the very day of the wall Street crash. If the UK Labour party take a more Keynesian approach that should make it easier for Sculiin to successfully do that was well . The other key question would be the Imperial Conference and what are the outcomes

​

 

[pipisme]

A Tory defeat also may also have interesting effects in Australia. James Scullin/Labor won the 1929 GE and he took office the very day of the wall Street crash. If the UK Labour party take a more Keynesian approach that should make it easier for Sculiin to successfully do that was well . The other key question would be the Imperial Conference and what are the outcomes

​

The Inperial Conference was held in London in October and November 1930, and chaired by Stanley Baldwin. It produced a framework to implement the declaration of the 1926 Imperial Conference that the dominions were equal in status, and not subordinate to the United Kingdom. Imperial preference was discussed but not adopted.

The Westminster St, George's by-election on 19 March 1931 was won for the Conservative Party by Harold Macmillan, with 54.2% of the total vote to 45.8% for Sir Ernest Petter, an industrialist, who stood as an Independent Conservative. Petter was supported by the Empire Free Trade Crusade, and backed by the Daily Express and the Daily Mail . In OTL the successful candidate was Duff Cooper. In this timeline he did not lose his Oldham seat in the 1929 general election.

The by-election campaign was notable for the speech by Baldwin at the Queen's Hall on 17 March, with its much quoted words attacking the press barons, Lord Beaverbrook and Lord Rothermere:

What the proprietorship of these papers is aiming at is power, and power without responsibility - the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.

With unemployment at over 2,700,000 in March 1931, the Conservative government did not have any policies which would bring it down. The Conservative Party was attacked from the right by the Empire Free Trade Crusade. Baldwin rejected its policy of free trade within the British Empire, because it would mean taxes on imports from outside the Empire. The Empire Free Trade Crusade only had time to put up 82 candidates in the general election.

 

[pipisme]

The Labour Party had the great advantage of being the main opposition to an unpopular Conservative government. Its election manifesto was largely a repeat of its 1929 manifesto. To reduce unemployment, it proposed a programme of public works. It promised to restore unemployment benefit to the level it was before the reductions in April 1930, and to the people from whom it was taken in June 1930.

The Liberal Party election manifesto was much like its 1929 manifesto. It promised the Bank of encourage investment and large scale public works to bring down unemployment, a national minimum wage for each industry, compulsory profit sharing schemes, and workers' councils to participate in industrial management. It affirmed the party's commitment to free trade. Although Lloyd George was no longer leader, he was the most well known person in the party, and played a major part in its election campaign.

Both Labour and Liberals made political capital over the Tory divisions over Empire Free Trade and imperial preference.

 

[pipisme]

The party leaders gave speeches to tens of thousands of people in cities throughout Britain. They also gave election broadcasts on BBC radio. Baldwin's theme was 'safety first', and urged voters to reject 'reckless experiments' and waxed lyrical about the English countryside. MacDonald was vague and nebulous, short on actual policies and long on inspiring sentiments. George Lambert, the leader of the Liberal Party, was not an eloquent speaker. He set out his party's radical and practical policies for economic recovery and bringing down unemployment. He was a relatively new kid on the block, having been Liberal leader for less than two years, since July 1929. Unlike Baldwin and MacDonald who had been their party's leaders since May 1923 and November 1922 respectively.

Everyone expected that Labour would be the largest party in the House of Commons, after the general expected. The Conservatives hoped that a Labour government would not have an overall majority, but be dependent on Liberal votes, like the 1924 Labour government was.

All the 82 British Empire Free Trade Crusade candidates stood in constituencies which had elected Conservative MPs in the 1929 general election, among them in cabinet ministers constituencies.

 

[pipisme]

Polling stations were open from 8 am to 8 pm on election day, 17 April 1931. Voting was reported to be fairly heavy. The first result declared was Salford North, where Ben Tillett was re-elected for Labour with an increased majority. The percentage votes for each party were (May 1929 general election):
Ben Tillett (Labour): 43.4 (44.8)
Conservative: 34.7 (38.9)
Liberal: 21.9 (16.3)
------------------------------------
Labour majority: 8.7 (5.9)
------------------------------------

As more results were declared overnight and the following day, Labour and Liberals gained scores of seats from the Conservatives, but it was not until the afternoon of 18 April, that Labour reached 308 seats and an overall majority in the House of Commons. When all the results had been declared, the number of seats for each party were as follows (May 1929 general election):
Labour: 318 (255)
Conservative: 161 (309)
Liberal: 129 (42)
Nationalist: 3 (3)
Empire Crusade: 1 (n/a)
Socialist Prohibition (SPP) : 1 (1)
Independents: 2 (4)
(Independent Labour: 1)
------------------------
Total: 615 (615)
----------------------
Labour had a majority of 21 over all others. But with the Speaker being a Conservative MP and with the SPP MP, their majority was 24.

 

[TimTurner]

My god, that's an awful showing for the Tories.