Soft power of an far right Germany in the 1930s.

[Gukpard]

So, the third Reich did have some soft power OTL and some countries around the globe got German military missions and adopted some aspects of Naziism, to the point that the US made the arsenal of democracy doctrine to win over Latin America to counter the nazi influence there.

As anything related to the Nazis they blew it up, by recalling the German mission to China and by bringing the entire Latin America to war with them.

Let's say that the German far right gets elected. An possible PoD is that Theodor Duesterberg Jewish ancestry ain't exposed and he runs for the DNVP in the place of Hindenburg (and maybe with Hindenburg support since he was one of the most anti Nazi figures of the German far right) and he gets elected president and set up an dictatorship or at least an banana republic. How would the German soft power go? Could more countries adopt German influence now that the government isn't fascist? Could the German influence overseas stay since there is no WWII?

I gonna call @Kaiser of Brazil since he reached me about Duesterberg and also @Guilherme Loureiro and @Vinization since they know a lot about Brazil at that time and might comment in the German influence here.

@Geon as the official foreign emissary about the US involvement in Latin American affairs, can you comment on it? Would the US do the arsenal of democracy if Germany is not Nazi and there is no WWII coming in the horizon?

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

I believe the main influence Germany could exert other foreign states comes from it’s economy and military (although not in the Hard Power sense). The case for Hitler is that he did not wish to use this potential to make his ideology global, National Socialism was a German phenomenon by essence, although many movements were inspired by it such as the Arrow Cross in Hungary. The NSDAP had different cells in other nations, the most active ones being in Austria and Czechoslovakia although it reached other Germanic nations and even immigrant communities. His priority was always to bring the immigrants back to Germany to populate the future Lebensraum territory, not as much to use them as movements inside their own nations.

Economically speaking, it’s highly likely that a DNVP-led Germany (the biggest Far-Right Party in Germany until the 30s), will adopt a mix of Italian Fascist Corporatism and the old German Imperial policies of forming alliances with major industrial conglomerates. With the Great Depression happening, if Germany manages to achieve a quick enough recovery, they can capitalize on the weakness of major nations, while using the fear of the growing Soviet Union to fuel it’s military-industrial complex. However, I do not believe the industry would enter a war footing such as what Göring’s 4-year plan enacted, rather a scheme such as the MEFO bills would be used as Schacht intended by fueling the growth of lighter civilian industry (not to say it wouldn’t be a heavily militarized state, that’s a given when the head of the Stalhelm takes over the country).

Militarily, allied with diplomacy, Germany would definitely break the Treaty of Versailles, Hitler was a bold gambler but doesn’t mean that the same people once associated with the Kaiser and Freikorps will be peaceful. A war is still possible, I can see the Rhineland and Austria being targets (However there might be greater reluctance to the idea of an Anschluss by the old Prussian Nobility), as well as the Polish corridor and even colonial matters. But I do not see something like the Sudetenland crisis happening, rather it would likely be a settlement over Danzig. The Anti-Comintern pact and an aggressive stance on the Soviet Union was something everyone to the right of the SPD (maybe even some in the SPD itself) agreed on during the late Weimar Republic (especially as the “Liberal-Center” Parties became increasingly authoritarian after 1928). I can see ventures over the Balkans, Baltics, and Finland to form a common front against the Soviet Union. With someone more trustworthy than Hitler, perhaps the British and French will be more hesitant about opposing the renewed German efforts against the East, more with a “Let them fight” mentality.

Antisemitism and the usual racism will inevitably come, even something such as the Kristallnacht and a toned down version of the Nuremberg Laws would likely be enacted. But I don’t see a Holocaust happening, perhaps more similar to the policies of Tsarist Russia or France at the height of the Dreyfus Affair. Would that interfere in foreign relations like it did with Hitler? Probably not, with the new German having a greater interest in colonialist pride over some new “Lebensraum” idea, the Sino-German cooperation will likely continue, if only as a way to avenge Tsingatao and other possessions taken by Japan in WWI. This new “Reich” would be less antisemitic and expansionist, and despite being more pragmatic, it would also be more revanchist over the Western allies.

Basically, if you take Hitler out of the equation, German foreign policy is less focused on the eastern Lebensraum, more revanchist, and a bit more pragmatic. I can see the large German industrial conglomerates trying to compete with the British and Americans over Latin American markets. Expanding it’s influence over Eastern Europe thanks to the fear of Stalin and the Soviets fueling anti-communism. Their main focus would rather be to restore the “Second Reich” than creating a “Third Reich”. It also likely means an Imperial Restoration, although with the Kaiser being more of a puppet such as during the 3rd OHL of Hindenburg and Ludendorff (1916-1918 Shadow Dictatorship). In fact, Germany during the final two years of WWI is a good model of the policies this new government would implement.

 

[Geon]

As far as I can see it, the U.S. would not be promoting the "Arsenal of Democracy" without a Nazi threat. The only reason I think the Arsenal of Democracy idea passed in the form of Lend/Lease was that there was a clear and present danger clearly present in Nazi aggression in Europe. As to Latin America - well history is replete with several right wind dictatorships the U.S. supported down through history in Latin America. I don't see the U.S. being too concerned.

On the other hand - if it looked like a nation(s) in Latin America were about to go Communist I suspect that some form of aid would be sent to the neighbors of the nation that was now communist. The U.S. might not care about right-wing dictatorships, but they would care greatly about a communist dictatorship.

 

[Gukpard]

As far as I can see it, the U.S. would not be promoting the "Arsenal of Democracy" without a Nazi threat. The only reason I think the Arsenal of Democracy idea passed in the form of Lend/Lease was that there was a clear and present danger clearly present in Nazi aggression in Europe. As to Latin America - well history is replete with several right wind dictatorships the U.S. supported down through history in Latin America. I don't see the U.S. being too concerned.

On the other hand - if it looked like a nation(s) in Latin America were about to go Communist I suspect that some form of aid would be sent to the neighbors of the nation that was now communist. The U.S. might not care about right-wing dictatorships, but they would care greatly about a communist dictatorship.

But what if the german influence get's too strong? Like, everyone south of Mexico is using Stahlhelms and Kar98k? Could Nelson Rockefeller (who was a huge brazilianphile) come to Roosevelt and say "hey boss, we have to do something"?

 

[Geon]

For that matter what about the British influence in Argentina before Peron? Would a British-influenced Argentina be any different from a German-influenced Brazil? I doubt the U.S. would be much concerned with a German-influenced government just so long as the Germans didn't start shipping troops to said nation.

 

[Migrant_Coconut]

They could start flipping democracies as well - supporting a Lindbergh '34 run, for example.

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

They could start flipping democracies as well - supporting a Lindbergh '34 run, for example.

I don’t think he would be old enough to be POTUS until 1940.

 

[Gukpard]

For that matter what about the British influence in Argentina before Peron? Would a British-influenced Argentina be any different from a German-influenced Brazil? I doubt the U.S. would be much concerned with a German-influenced government just so long as the Germans didn't start shipping troops to said nation.

Brazil under Vargas is americanophile, so it is where the US would concentrate their efforts

I find it easier for the germans to overcome the british in places like Argentina, Chile and Paraguay since these three adopted the german military doctrine in our timeline

 

[Lautréamont]

Let's say that the German far right gets elected. An possible PoD is that Theodor Duesterberg Jewish ancestry ain't exposed and he runs for the DNVP in the place of Hindenburg (and maybe with Hindenburg support since he was one of the most anti Nazi figures of the German far right) and he gets elected president and set up an dictatorship or at least an banana republic. How would the German soft power go? Could more countries adopt German influence now that the government isn't fascist? Could the German influence overseas stay since there is no WWII?

Uh, Duesterberg running for DNVP in 1932 is OTL. If his ancestry doesn't get outed he might shave off a couple percentage points from Hitler in the first round, but Hindenburg is still running with the support of the former Brüning coalition as per OTL and Duesterberg isn't making a dent into his support.

Generally speaking, it's hard to say how a Hindenburg/DNVP/Stahlhelm dictatorship would go because with a 1932 PoD it's either Hitler or civil war. You can plausibly have the non-Nazi far right risk a civil war and win it on the backs of Reichswehr and Stahlhelm - indeed, it's likely that Schleicher would have done this if he had been in better health - but still, there is a civil war and some apple carts will be upended.

 

[Vinization]

I unfortunately can't give any real input to this discussion, but given how many fanboys Nazi Germany had, especially in Argentina and Paraguay, I suppose it's safe to assume they'd love this "sane" far-right Germany even more.

 

[Jes Lo]

I unfortunately can't give any real input to this discussion, but given how many fanboys Nazi Germany had, especially in Argentina and Paraguay, I suppose it's safe to assume they'd love this "sane" far-right Germany even more.

Honestly, I kinda like the idea of dictatorships and authoritarian right-wingers looking to this more moderate right-wing German power bloc for money and ideological support. Depending on how the Soviets end up, it could turn into some kind of a three-way split.

 

[Alanith]

Honestly, I kinda like the idea of dictatorships and authoritarian right-wingers looking to this more moderate right-wing German power bloc for money and ideological support. Depending on how the Soviets end up, it could turn into some kind of a three-way split.

With no WWII the Soviets never gain close to the kind of influence they had in the Cold War.

 

[Jes Lo]

With no WWII the Soviets never gain close to the kind of influence they had in the Cold War.

Would the "Teutonic Alliance" maybe use some Winter War parallel as an excuse to invade the USSR and annex the Baltics and perhaps more?

 

[Garrison]

Honestly, I kinda like the idea of dictatorships and authoritarian right-wingers looking to this more moderate right-wing German power bloc for money and ideological support. Depending on how the Soviets end up, it could turn into some kind of a three-way split.

Where would the money come from? Germany is broke in the early 30s whoever comes to power. Now without the ludicrous rearmament spending and more emphasis on building up the civilian market at home and export industries you can address that in the long term, if this authoritarian government also comes off the gold standard and avoids the various tactics used by the finance ministry and the Reichsbank to keep the economy afloat during the mid 30s. Also given that a semi-sane German government is pouring money down the drain on massive rearmament they aren't going to have weapons to sell to other countries so their soft power will be that of any other mid-tier European economy of the time that doesn't have an overseas empire.

 

[Jes Lo]

Where would the money come from? Germany is broke in the early 30s whoever comes to power. Now without the ludicrous rearmament spending and more emphasis on building up the civilian market at home and export industries you can address that in the long term, if this authoritarian government also comes off the gold standard and avoids the various tactics used by the finance ministry and the Reichsbank to keep the economy afloat during the mid 30s. Also given that a semi-sane German government is pouring money down the drain on massive rearmament they aren't going to have weapons to sell to other countries so their soft power will be that of any other mid-tier European economy of the time that doesn't have an overseas empire.

Obviously they'd spend the first decade at least rebuilding German infrastructure and cementing their rule, legitimizing themselves by making sensible economic decisions. They'd probably not be on the warpath at first, focusing more on destroying the opposition, making economic and diplomatic alliances in Europe and Asia at least. Slowly gathering strength without trying to offend Britain and France too much by offering diplomacy, preferring to keep the focus on the Soviets and using them as a scapegoat for military buildup. Their closest allies would be Italy, Austria (if it remains independent) and Nationalist Spain at least.

 

[Gukpard]

Uh, Duesterberg running for DNVP in 1932 is OTL. If his ancestry doesn't get outed he might shave off a couple percentage points from Hitler in the first round, but Hindenburg is still running with the support of the former Brüning coalition as per OTL and Duesterberg isn't making a dent into his support.

Generally speaking, it's hard to say how a Hindenburg/DNVP/Stahlhelm dictatorship would go because with a 1932 PoD it's either Hitler or civil war. You can plausibly have the non-Nazi far right risk a civil war and win it on the backs of Reichswehr and Stahlhelm - indeed, it's likely that Schleicher would have done this if he had been in better health - but still, there is a civil war and some apple carts will be upended.

How can we avoid Hitler?

Also in this scenario Hindenburg would not run, all forces would be concentrated in Duesterberg.

 

[Lautréamont]

How can we avoid Hitler?

Two possibilities, really. Either you keep the Brüning government in power, or you install a Reichswehr junta. As I wrote above, the latter option requires Reichswehr to win a civil war.

Also in this scenario Hindenburg would not run, all forces would be concentrated in Duesterberg.

There's no way in hell SPD supports Duesterberg. Your idea might work with someone like Jarres or von Lettow-Vorbeck or, hell, von Westarp even. Emphasis on "might". But Duesterberg, no way.

 

[Gukpard]

Two possibilities, really. Either you keep the Brüning government in power, or you install a Reichswehr junta. As I wrote above, the latter option requires Reichswehr to win a civil war.


There's no way in hell SPD supports Duesterberg. Your idea might work with someone like Jarres or von Lettow-Vorbeck or, hell, von Westarp even. Emphasis on "might". But Duesterberg, no way.

What about Wilhelm II dying and Wilhelm III running as president and winning in the far right front in 1930, then the nazis being outmanouvered?

 

[Jes Lo]

What about Wilhelm II dying and Wilhelm III running as president and winning in the far right front in 1930, then the nazis being outmanouvered?

You'd have to lay some groundwork, but if Wilhelm III rises to power, you're gonna have a lot of conservative, reactionary and ex-army Nazis leaving for that movement or eschewing them altogether. The remnants of the NSDAP, if it would remain active, would be a lot more dominated by radical and revolutionary Sturmabteilung types, if the Night of Long Knifes hasn't taken place yet at this point. Think guys like Strasser, Röhm and so on. Meaning that they'd put a lot more emphasis on the Arbeitenpartei-aspect to the party.

 

[Lautréamont]

What about Wilhelm II dying and Wilhelm III running as president and winning in the far right front in 1930, then the nazis being outmanouvered?

I suppose you mean 1932? I guess Wilhelm could win without SPD, but he isn't a great choice for outmaneuvering the Nazis. The guy seems to have been an unambitious fascist simp who'd have been quite content to be the Vittorio Emanuele III to Hitler's Mussolini. In fact, his OTL plan for 1932 - which didn't come to pass because Daddy scolded him - was to get Hitler to stand aside in the Presidential election in exchange for the Chancellorship... well, and we know how the weak President and Chancellor Hitler combo would fare, because that's just 1933-34 IOTL.