The Cuban Missile War Timeline

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glowjack

Banned
This is amazing. It was so gripping and fantastic, it made me feel real emotion both good an bad. It made me hate Kennedy for not stiking first and being responsible for the death of millions, it horrified me when millions of Americans died in nuclear fire, and it gave me hope that the US would survive.

Well, first strike is perfect in retrospect eh? Obviously the Iraq invasion went well, and the Afghan one, and the soon to be Pakistan one.
 

Hapsburg

Banned
Wow. Just...amazing. I just finished reading the TL and I am stunned.
OMG, the part where Kennedy is engulfed in the blast...manly tears were shed. :(

The terrifying thing to me is that this all could have happened. Right then. Right there.
Barely a week before my mother was born.
 
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There was another timeline in this spirit except it was set during the 1980s. Does anyone know where I can find that?(not the one on that one wiki)
 
That's startlingly good, Khazar. I could see it benefiting from some of the more recent studies on secondary burning effects pointed out earlier in this thread, but that would deal with climate effects only. If you haven't read what's behind that link, I'd definitely recommend it.
 
Amerigo-

Great work! Happened on this, couldn’t put it down and signed up for this forum (even though I need another forum like a hole in the head at this point….) so I could react.
I’ve got a couple of pain-in-the-ass nitpicks for you, and a couple of reactions to the comments that I’ve been collecting in a Word document while I waited for my account to be activated.

As I write, I’m on page 19 of the comments, so sorry if any of this has been addressed….

My nitpicks are in the time itself, of the timeline:

1) I don’t know what the law was in 1962, but when I was growing up in the 70s, Daylight Savings Time in the U.S. ended at 2 a.m. on the last Sunday in October. Which means (if that was the law in 1962) setting the clocks back in Washington at 2 a.m. on the Sunday in question. Which means a lot of pain-in-the-butt fixes for you (sorry….) Maybe said fixes would be worthwhile if the time change became an element in the plot, by confusing the computers (or human beings – misunderstanding of an ultimatum?) in a way that affected the story.

2) Also, you seem to have lost a day: Monday and Tuesday would have been October 29 and 30, not 30 and 31.

Now, reactions to comments:

Somewhere about page 5 of the comments, you list Ireland, Switzerland and possibly Sweden as European governments that survive. How about Spain? Franco at the time, which fits the authoritarianism which you suggest would have thrived in the postwar environment. Was Spain neutral? (I used to know this sort of thing….) Is Madrid intact?

Someone talked about rich people from the northern hemisphere refugeeing to places like Australia and South Africa. My reaction was to wonder if “rich” would be an adjective with any meaning? I don’t suppose bank accounts would be electronically wiped out, but still… people whose wealth depended on investments, or people who had plenty of hypothetical cash but no bank to withdraw it from…aren’t going to be buying expensive tickets to whatever form of transportation may be available to relocate them across the Equator, are they? Something to think about.

Question to Thande (or whoever knows) re: the relocation of the British Government: was there provision for evacuation of the royal family?

Your comment on page 14, about Martin Luther King: You mention 1967 midterm elections. The Constitution provides for Congressional elections in November of even-numbered years. While not having an election in November 1962 is obvious, if unconstitutional, I think after that the election cycle returns to even-numbered years unless the Constitution is amended.

A related electoral-politics point: Congressional districts in all elections through 1970 should have been based on the distribution of the population in the 1960 census. Just like the Constitution is specific on the dates of Federal elections, it’s specific on censuses being held every ten years and specific that the purpose of the census is to apportion House seats among the states. Holding post-war elections based on the 1960 census is going to lead to a lot of American rotten boroughs. So the obvious solution is to hold a new census. But is it constitutional? I don’t think the Constitution says that censuses are to be held in years ending in -0, just that they’ll be held every ten years. They’re held in years ending in -0 because 1790 started the cycle, so it may be constitutionally permissible, in these exceptional circumstances, to hold a new census in, say, 1964, then going on to ’74, ’84, ’94….

Again, great work!
 
Question to Thande (or whoever knows) re: the relocation of the British
Government: was there provision for evacuation of the royal family?

No one knows for sure. Despite all of the documentation that has been revealed recently nothing has come to light to where the Queen and Royal Family would go.
It has been long rumored that the Queen would be accommodated aboard HMY Britannia, but the documents have not borne that out. Most scholars now think that she would have gone to a country house somewhere, which was similar to plans in WW2.

We do now know the composition of Macmillan's emergency government and who would have been Regional Commissioners. I can post it if anyone is interested. We also now know that VISITATION was not the codename for our retaliation but the evacuation of the PM's party from Whitehall by RAF helicopter, which would have been carried out at the last minute.
 
A digest of potentially good links for this TL::)
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/reducedcanadianwheatgrowing/
http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/helfandpaper.pdf
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/incl...climatic_consequences_of_nuclear_conflict.pdf
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/fivemilliontonsofsmoke/#with100
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/globaltemperatures1yearafter50/
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/reducedgrowingseasons3yearspostconflict50/
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/hundredfiftytonessmoke/#summaryofconsequences150
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/onlinereferences/
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pdf/MillsPNAS.pdf
http://www.pnas.org/content/105/14/5307.full
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/catastrophicclimaticconsequences/
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/222/4630/1283
http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/pdfs/2010_02_18_starr_climate_change.pdf
http://beyondnuclear.squarespace.com/storage/acp-7-2003-2007-3.pdf
http://en.scientificcommons.org/22089074
http://inesap.org/node/11
http://www.subbrit.org.uk/rsg/features/sfs/new_page_1.htm
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=133932
http://www.ippnw.org/PDF%20files/


____________________

Taking into account oakvale and Thande's suggestions for prologues, I submit a list of potential prologues (or a combination of various prologues): :)

***********************************************************************************************************************
"If the radiance of a thousand suns
were to burst into the sky,
that would be like
the splendor of the Mighty One—
I am become Death, the shatterer of worlds.”
J. Robert Oppenheimer, quoting the Bhagavad Gita, during the Trinity Test, the first nuclear explosion, in the White Sands Missile Range, near Alamogordo, on July 16, 1945, at 11:29:45 UTC.

"Now we are all sons of bitches."
Remark to J. Robert Oppenheimer made shortly after the Trinity Test, by Kenneth Bainbridge, test director.
*******************************************************************************
"If the Third World War is fought with nuclear weapons, the fourth will be fought with bows and arrows."
- Lord Louis Mountbatten

The variant
"World War Four will be fought with bows and arrows."
is attributed to P. W. Slosson, Washington Post, 16 July, 1948.
*******************************************************************************
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
- Albert Einstein, Interview, Liberal Judaism, April-May1949;

There is a variant:
"I do not know how the Third World War will be fought, but I can tell you what they will use in the Fourth - rocks!"
- Albert Einstein, Interview, Liberal Judaism, April-May1949;

Another variation of the quote, appearing in sources such as the video game Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare, released in November 2007, runs:
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones...")
*******************************************************************************
 
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Amazing TL, very good work.

However, I might be new here, but am I the only seeing that the radiation of the attacks is not addressed? With 400 million of the european population being killed in the war, the remainning must be hit by radiation in one way or another. This would significantly change the human biology in the form of a huge increase in deform and retarded children being born in the following years. This in all ways would stop rebuilding of the european countries for decades.

That's not even to mention that the machines of Europe would probably not be able to run. We are talking the 60'es here, so a great deal of the oil still comes from the middle east and the US. Do you think the US would sail to Europe with oil following the war? Because i can't see a situation with european rebuilding without gas for the machines in agriculture.
 
That was indeed the timeline I was thinking of khazar. I am a tad bit annoyed by the texas-centrism present though. It gets in the way of presenting the mass scale of destruction such a conflict would bring.
 
some note on last posts
Question to Thande (or whoever knows) re: the relocation of the British
Government: was there provision for evacuation of the royal family?

that is a well keep secret, even today.
IMHO i think that the royal family is dispersed over Kingdom in Bunker or secluded area

Beafman:
That's not even to mention that the machines of Europe would probably not be able to run. We are talking the 60'es here, so a great deal of the oil still comes from the middle east and the US. Do you think the US would sail to Europe with oil following the war? Because i can't see a situation with european rebuilding without gas for the machines in agriculture.

Europe will not get Ol from USA
it dont need it !
In Europe are several small oil springs
Algeria got oil springs exploited by french corporation in begin 1960
next to that are Europe coal mines
Coal can be liquefy and used to make synthetical fuel for cars or aircraft
also natural gas can be converts into low-sulfur diesel like fuels
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer–Tropsch_process

new Info about biologically adaptation under radioactivity
thanks study of Tschernobyl disaster on long term effects

Plant species adapt very good under radioactivity
they produce more Glycin-Betain to protect them self
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,717812,00.html
decimation under Insect and spider population desto closer to radioactiv source (Fallout)
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/0,1518,613867,00.html
decimation under Birds population desto closer to radioactiv source (Fallout)
but with a twist: red and yellow Birds dies out
why ?
the birds with red or yellow feather use Carotinoid for colorpigments
but Carotinoid are antioxidants who give protection to radioactivity
bird species how lay big egs or are migratory birds or life dispersed over greath surface decimation also
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,493623,00.html

the sparrows will thrive...
 
Rats and nuclear War
we see it in all SF Movies, novels, Comics etc.
so much, it became a cliché

but reality proving stereotype

Rats survive twenty-three nuclear blast on Bikini Atoll.
and adapt under the cooled-down radioactivity on islands

but how it gona look during full scale nuclear war with thousand nuclear blast and hard radioactivity ?
the Rats survives in Holes, canalizations , basements, even Bunkers
but they need to get out for food and they eat all edible they can find !
i spare you the details of World Wars or New York rat raids fron 1976/78
but during there search for food will be in hard radioactivity
and that will have drastic effect for future rat generations !
the hard radioactivity penetrate 1 inch (2,5 cm) deep in Skin of animals
so smaller animals on ground like mice or small rats dies on radioactivity
means only bigger rats survive, how big ? hart to tell

but there was Coryphomys a extinct genus of rats, dog sized and weighting up to 13.2 pounds (6 kilograms)
 
In regards to France, these links may be useful to think about the political evolution of TTL after the return to democracy.
http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/elections/historique-2.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_1958
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élections_législatives_françaises_de_1958
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_1962
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élections_législatives_françaises_de_1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1965
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1965

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=62378.300


1958

Legislative1958.png

1962

Legislative1962-1.png


http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/17891965.htm
Quotes from this link:
1962 Presidential Election referendum

2007_12_11_08_7_28_42.png

"Opposition to de Gaulle's referendum on the direct election of the President. Overall, a anti-Gaullist map. Note the usual left-wing C/G from Nice/Var to the Cher or Nievre that gave some of the highest NO votes."

1962 Evian referendum

Referendum1962-No.png

"The Evian Accords, ending the Algerian war, passed by a huge margin, obviously. The opposition was primarily Pieds-Noirs concentrated in urban centres from the Gironde (Bordeaux) to the Mediterranean coast (Marseille, Toulon, Nice). The early map of the FN by 1974/1981."


1958 Fifth Republic referendum

Referendum1958-Yes.png

"The ultimate Gaullist election: the beginning of the Fifth Republic. De Gaulle raked up massive margins in favour in Alsace-Lorraine (extending a bit beyond that) and the Christian democratic lands from the Calvados to Vendee. Note the Gaullist strength in the Nord and the south Atlantic coast. Those two regions aren't traditionally very right-wing regions overall. With a few exceptions, any map of the UNR/UDR under de Gaulle himselfcan be superimposed on a map of occupied France in 1941. The "zone libre", Vichy, gave the Gaullists lesser result than the occupied part to the north. Except for the Catholic conservative areas in the Massif Central."

_______

Based on these links, and the fact that Southern France survives in better shape, it's possible to posit that France will return to a Parliamentary system with indirect election of the President (even if French Guyana and other French Islands follow a more OTL French political line), and that the French parties of the (centre-)Left of the time will be in stronger position.
Communism will have a loss of some degree, since they attacked the west, and killed a large percentage of the French (including some friends and family of some of the surviving French communists).
Gaullism will decrease in strenght too, both for being partially (and unfairly) blamed (by some), and for many Gaullists living in the north (at least at the time).
Minor centrist parties (political survivors from the Fourth Republic) might also survive in the underground (and slightly more openly in French Guyana, even if it's only under the guise of some types of "apolitical" organisations during TTL dictatorship in France).
 
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In regards to France, these links may be useful to think about the political evolution of TTL after the return to democracy.
http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/elections/historique-2.asp
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_1958
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élections_législatives_françaises_de_1958
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_1962
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élections_législatives_françaises_de_1962
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_presidential_election,_1965
http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Élection_présidentielle_française_de_1965

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=62378.300


1958

Legislative1958.png

1962

Legislative1962-1.png


http://www.freewebs.com/franceelgeo/17891965.htm
Quotes from this link:
1962 Presidential Election referendum

2007_12_11_08_7_28_42.png

"Opposition to de Gaulle's referendum on the direct election of the President. Overall, a anti-Gaullist map. Note the usual left-wing C/G from Nice/Var to the Cher or Nievre that gave some of the highest NO votes."

1962 Evian referendum

Referendum1962-No.png

"The Evian Accords, ending the Algerian war, passed by a huge margin, obviously. The opposition was primarily Pieds-Noirs concentrated in urban centres from the Gironde (Bordeaux) to the Mediterranean coast (Marseille, Toulon, Nice). The early map of the FN by 1974/1981."


1958 Fifth Republic referendum

Referendum1958-Yes.png

"The ultimate Gaullist election: the beginning of the Fifth Republic. De Gaulle raked up massive margins in favour in Alsace-Lorraine (extending a bit beyond that) and the Christian democratic lands from the Calvados to Vendee. Note the Gaullist strength in the Nord and the south Atlantic coast. Those two regions aren't traditionally very right-wing regions overall. With a few exceptions, any map of the UNR/UDR under de Gaulle himselfcan be superimposed on a map of occupied France in 1941. The "zone libre", Vichy, gave the Gaullists lesser result than the occupied part to the north. Except for the Catholic conservative areas in the Massif Central."

_______

Based on these links, and the fact that Southern France survives in better shape, it's possible to posit that France will return to a Parliamentary system with indirect election of the President (even if French Guyana and other French Islands follow a more OTL French political line), and that the French parties of the (centre-)Left of the time will be in stronger position.
Communism will have a loss of some degree, since they attacked the west, and killed a large percentage of the French (including some friends and family of some of the surviving French communists).
Gaullism will decrease in strenght too, both for being partially (and unfairly) blamed (by some), and for many Gaullists living in the north (at least at the time).
Minor centrist parties (political survivors from the Fourth Republic) might also survive in the underground (and slightly more openly in French Guyana, even if it's only under the guise of some types of "apolitical" organisations during TTL dictatorship in France).

OTL question: That referendum was held the day the crisis ended (would people voting early even have known that? Not sure of the timing...) I'm wondering what effect the crisis may have had on the voting. If I were a French voter then, the idea of voting on how to choose a president in the face of the possible imminent end of the world would probably have seemed rather surreal. For that matter, what sort of campaign was there during the crisis week?

And an OTL comment: it's interesting that the Belgians (or rather their politicians) had pulled themselves together sufficiently, a week and a half after the crisis, to legislate the "linguistic frontier."
 
Cuban Missile War v1.8

Here's version 1.8, incorporating the latest updates and changes based on new information and further research. A partial list of changes follows:

  • New ICBM targets to reflect air defense information.
  • Removed IRBMs targeted on Alaska, as none were within range at the time.
  • Updated invasion plan for Cuba based on 1992 Military History Quarterly article.
  • Changed dates of U.S. elections based on comment in thread.
  • Added postwar U.S. emergency census information.
  • Soviet attacks on Guam and Hawaii modified and adjusted wording.
  • Clarified Soviet submarine situation in Caribbean.

If you're interested in more Cuban Missile War stuff, check out the following story posted on NavWeaps. It's not mine, but it has a similar POD and goes into a bit more fine detail. The first chapter is linked here. I advise some sort of adblock to stop annoying automatic video ads with sound on that site.

I've got a PDF of the 1992 MHQ article that outlined U.S. plans to invade Cuba, but unfortunately it's too large to upload here.

Edit: I've just realized that there is one obvious error in this version. Under the November 5 entry, I state that 100 Megatons was directed against the United States. That figure should be 200 Megatons, and it should be North America, not the United States alone.
 

Attachments

  • Cuban Missile War v1.8.pdf
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Macragge1

Banned
Still a marvellous timeline, Amerigo - it was Cuban Missile War that persuaded me both to join this site and write my own timeline, so thanks.
 
Cudos!

Here's version 1.8, incorporating the latest updates and changes based on new information and further research. A partial list of changes follows:

  • New ICBM targets to reflect air defense information.
  • Removed IRBMs targeted on Alaska, as none were within range at the time.
  • Updated invasion plan for Cuba based on 1992 Military History Quarterly article.
  • Changed dates of U.S. elections based on comment in thread.
  • Added postwar U.S. emergency census information.
  • Soviet attacks on Guam and Hawaii modified and adjusted wording.
  • Clarified Soviet submarine situation in Caribbean.

This is without a doubt one of the best written and researched AHs I have had the privilege of reading. I found it to be simultaneously riveting, distressing, and enlightening. You should sell this on Amazon!

Hero of Canton
 
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