The eagle's left head

[Avrorrange]

Civil war means being part of the same realm, which even though Constantinople might like to think as much about their vague link with Syracuse is not; Lascarids attacking the ERE would be an invasion. When they seized Byzantine Morea, it was in self defense against the unpopular act of an unpopular emperor.
Besides, I would not underestimate how important the shared sense of Greek identity was. In many ways, it was that sense that enabled the Lascarid conquest of Hellas from its Frankish overlords, that convinced many in Imperial Morea to either ignore or freely interpret Andronikos II's order so to help Ioannis' conquest of Achaea.
Unless the ERE attack the Lascarids first, is ruled by an emperor or a faction hostile to them, I don't see any Lascarid aristocrat pushing for it.
If anything, Angevin Sicily and Greece (it's my understanding they currently control something like Corfu, Aetolia, Locris and Arcanania) make more tempting targets than the ERE in the immediate.

Liberating fellow Greeks of the old Nicean homeland from Turkish rule however? That's more appealing and more unifying. Add to that more practical consideration as suppressing Turkish piracy, and you don't need much incentive to push some over the edge.

If the Lascarids actually attack the empire, this is what’s gonna happen. Many of the Greeks probably wouldn’t resist. They would just throw down their arms.They are just exchanging one emperor for another like god knows how many times. Trying their utmost, the Palaiologos government can probably just summon a few thousand soldiers at most, probably less because every knows that they are gonna lose.They will likely have to offer land to the Turks and the Serbs to get an army to help them fight, which would make them look like traitors.

As for liberating Greeks from the Turks? That’s a poor idea if the Lascarids cannot conquer the rest of Palaiologian Greece. They’d be completely overstretched holding a few outposts across the Mediterranean.

 

[DracoLazarus]

If the Lascarids actually attack the empire, this is what’s gonna happen. Many of the Greeks probably wouldn’t resist. They would just throw down their arms.They are just exchanging one emperor for another like god knows how many times. Trying their utmost, the Palaiologos government can probably just summon a few thousand soldiers at most, probably less because every knows that they are gonna lose.They will likely have to offer land to the Turks and the Serbs to get an army to help them fight, which would make them look like traitors.

True, but such an approach would likely not be comfortable for the Laskarids.
I don't see them marching into Macedonia and Thrace before receiving a prior invitation to become Emperors from a faction in a civil war.
Like, if, say, we have a civil war after the death of Andronikos III and his heir gets killed, and Kantakouzenos invites Alexandros in to take the throne.

 

[goumaister]

If the Lascarids actually attack the empire, this is what’s gonna happen. Many of the Greeks probably wouldn’t resist.

Well the peasants and urban population probably not, but the noble certainly would resist. Seeing the suppression of their fellow Frankish nobles in the Despotates lands they would resist losing any of the many priveleges that they have now under the Palaiologoi. Now of course Theodore or Michael could negotiate with them but still I expect some resistance from them.

 

[Avrorrange]

Well the peasants and urban population probably not, but the noble certainly would resist. Seeing the suppression of their fellow Frankish nobles in the Despotates lands they would resist losing any of the many priveleges that they have now under the Palaiologoi. Now of course Theodore or Michael could negotiate with them but still I expect some resistance from them.

With what army?

 

[X Oristos]

As I see it, it would require a major paradigm shift to try to conquer the Empire. The Lascarids will have their hands full with a number of crises. It seems that there won't be a war with Naples as long as Robert lives. He lost the opportunity for a swift attack, even if said opportunity was an illusion. But Charles' succession will be a clusterfuck and Regno's instability will hugely influence the Despotate's policy. Then it will be the matter of the Genoese-Venetian war of the 1350s. In between, the plague will arrive.

That's why I am under the impression that it would be preferable that any christian-conquered port in Asia Minor to be controlled by the Hospitallers and the Papacy. Otherwise, it would make sense that any lascarid involvement will be more like a typical and limited mission creep than a sweeping large-scale involvement in Asia Minor.

Food for thought, how likely is Michael to interpret liberally orders he'd have regarding his participation in a Smyrna Crusade, if the Lascarids do participate, and get the Despotate its foothold on Anatolia while not intended?

That's a very good point. Michael is basically viceroy in what constitutes as a mid-range power. His father initially made his name by fighting the Turks. It seems that there will be peace with the Empire, at least as long as Andronikos lives. The Angevins control only the castles of Lepanto and Vonitza, along with Corfu (and a couple castles across the island). They do not constitute any viable threat to the Catepanate. The Catepanate will be quite secure, at least for some time.

At the same time, the large scale turkish piracy is a threat to a number of powerful stakeholders, the ones that Michael has to rely on. The Chian admiral Leo Kalothetos for once. The three patrician merchant families of Monemvasia for another. Chios, Samos and Kos are now home to the children of refugees from Asia Minor. Other Asia Minor refugees were the first to rally to Alexandros' cause back in 1280 and more followed with Alexios in 1295 and Ioannis in 1304. I guess that their descendants will promote a harder line towards the Maritime Beyliks. In any case, it is easy to see Michael getting a case of mission creep that ends up in limited involvement along the shores of Asia Minor.

 

[galileo-034]

In any case, it is easy to see Michael getting a case of mission creep that ends up in limited involvement along the shores of Asia Minor.

An analogy comes to my mind just now, Cortes' "Oops, we conquered the Aztec Empire" could become Michael's "Oops, we conquered Smyrna" here.
Michael, being the local viceroy as you said, having to decide quickly how to follow on the crusade leaderships being massacred, won't wait to request orders and wait for an answer from Syracuse. When informed after some delay, what could Theodore do, give Smyrna up to the Hospitalers?
Belisarius in Italy back in the 6th century sure did not wait orders from Justinian before any move he made.

Imagine further he decides to "punish" Michael by sending young Alexandros to Athens, and that said Alexandros instead backs up Michael.

 

[Basileus_of_the_Hellenes]

I personally believe that the Vatatzes-Lascarids should be focused on taking territory from Latins in the lower Balkans (The Gravinas family in Aetolia, Corfu, Durazzo, or Venetian Territory in Euboea, Crete, etc.), rather than attempt civil war with the ERE. Although I also truly believe that Kantakouzenos in the Second Palaiologos Civil War may approach Theodore with the Imperial Title rather than go to Serbia for a foreign army ITTL... He has had a working relationship with them before ITTL, we know Kantakouzenos did not really wish to become emperor* (*he wrote his own history though, so that might just be propaganda...), and he understands that they could truly serve the Empire better than Turkish/Serbian Mercenaries and bloody civil war, so for the good of the Empire, he may attempt to bring a 'foreign' Roman Army to retake Constantinople from John VI and his regents who he believes to be destroying the Empire along with the nobility (we have seen him attempt to right the wrongs and corruption of the Empire).

This is of course all moot if Lascaris decides not to kill off Andronikos III in 1341-ish, then I can see a stable peace with the ERE, but honestly the Despotate doesn't have an active front for the next few years right now. They'll probably establish peaceful relations with the Angevins in 1339 with a betrothal, and if Robert lives to 1343, then that is two years between which the Second Palaiologan Civil War occurs, aka two campaign seasons for the Katepanate of Hellas to intercede in the 2nd Palaiologan Civil War... We have seen the Despotate jump on opportunities when they come, and the civil war would just be another one for them...

Or ironically enough, we may see Kantakouzenos go to Serbia first, see them gobble up ERE Macedonia and Epirus, and then attempt to call in the Despotate only for the Despotate to take those lands for their own...

Food for thought I guess, ha!

 

[galileo-034]

Thrace, July 1331

Kantakouzenos called it restoration of legal authority. The nobles used to keeping taxes and pronoias to themselves called it Kantakouzenos infringing on their given rights. But Kantakouzenos had on his side the trust of the emperor and his newly recruited regular troops to quelch noble dissent. The local peasantry couldn't care less about the troubles of the nobility, their lot at worst remained the same and usually improved at least somewhat from Kantakouzenos actions so why should they complain? And Ioannis had enough of a political mind not to try reforming the whole lot in a single step. This year it would be Gallipoli. Next year some other province. It would likely take years to reform the entirety of Thrace, much less Macedonia a piece at a time. But it was the only way to tackle the task.

So eight years of TL from the latest development. @Lascaris, how much has progressed the (re)implementation of the pronoia system since Gallipoli? Which areas? And what does that provide the Empire in extra manpower ?

 

[Sphenodon]

I personally believe that the Vatatzes-Lascarids should be focused on taking territory from Latins in the lower Balkans (The Gravinas family in Aetolia, Corfu, Durazzo, or Venetian Territory in Euboea, Crete, etc.), rather than attempt civil war with the ERE. Although I also truly believe that Kantakouzenos in the Second Palaiologos Civil War may approach Theodore with the Imperial Title rather than go to Serbia for a foreign army ITTL... He has had a working relationship with them before ITTL, we know Kantakouzenos did not really wish to become emperor* (*he wrote his own history though, so that might just be propaganda...), and he understands that they could truly serve the Empire better than Turkish/Serbian Mercenaries and bloody civil war, so for the good of the Empire, he may attempt to bring a 'foreign' Roman Army to retake Constantinople from John VI and his regents who he believes to be destroying the Empire along with the nobility (we have seen him attempt to right the wrongs and corruption of the Empire).

This seems highly plausible in my eyes. Both sides are going to be fishing for the favor of a powerful vassal that did not exist whatsoever IOTL, and considering the friction between the Vatatzes and the throne in Constantinople up to this point they seem more likely to side with the rebelling faction. And while I do agree with the throne being offered as a likely enough strategy, I think the Despotate's forces might end up going for it even if not offered emperorship as part of the deal. It's only the Roman way, after all.

Opportunism in the Smyrniot Crusade also seems like a promising avenue, especially in the context of potential Vatatzes emperorship. What better way to legitimize rule than reconquering at least pieces of the old Imperial heartland from heathen forces? If nothing else, the cult of reputation surrounding the Laskarids would ensure local loyalty in the provinces, to say nothing of adding another large city to their polity.

 

[Flavius Iulius Nepos]

and considering the friction between the Vatatzes and the throne in Constantinople up to this point they seem more likely to side with the rebelling faction.

Counterpoint, the current despotissa is a Palaiologina, an aunt of the current emperor.

Frankly I'd prefer for the empire to find success of it own, instead of it to simply decline like OTL except with the Laskarids playing the role of the Ottomans/Serbs here.

 

[Avrorrange]

Counterpoint, the current despotissa is a Palaiologina, an aunt of the current emperor.

Frankly I'd prefer for the empire to find success of it own, instead of it to simply decline like OTL except with the Laskarids playing the role of the Ottomans/Serbs here.

For the common good and unity of all Greeks, the empire must die and re-born again under the Lascarids.

 

[TheCataphract]

For the common good and unity of all Greeks, the empire must die and re-born again under the Lascarids.

I don't think it would be a death. It seems like Roman institutions are rather stronger in Lascarid territory than in the Empire itself, and the Empire is certainly no stranger at all to regime change.

 

[Avrorrange]

I don't think it would be a death. It seems like Roman institutions are rather stronger in Lascarid territory than in the Empire itself, and the Empire is certainly no stranger at all to regime change.

Considering the Despotate is a realm forged independently of the empire in a foreign realm where the majority of the population wasn’t Greek originally, it’s best to consider it a foreign entity to the empire. More so than the likes of Trebizond and Epirus.

 

[nickmn]

Considering the Despotate is a realm forged independently of the empire in a foreign realm where the majority of the population wasn’t Greek originally, it’s best to consider it a foreign entity to the empire. More so than the likes of Trebizond and Epirus.

At the same time , it ended up bordering the empire , with the majority of the population being more or less Greeks and the rulers have a very much valid claim to the imperial throne . Arguably an even better claim than the current emperor himself .

 

[TheCataphract]

Considering the Despotate is a realm forged independently of the empire in a foreign realm where the majority of the population wasn’t Greek originally, it’s best to consider it a foreign entity to the empire. More so than the likes of Trebizond and Epirus.

I think you're applying a bit more nationalism than actually existed in this point in history, and like nickmn said, it is a realm with a very large Greek speaking population, forged by a dynasty with Imperial pedigree, and largely structures by the laws of the Empire. It is a fairly strong claim.

At the same time , it ended up bordering the empire , with the majority of the population being more or less Greeks and the rulers have a very much valid claim to the imperial throne . Arguably an even better claim than the current emperor himself .

With Kantekouzenos in Constantinople and seemingly reasonably popular, I think the Laskarids wouldn't likely be able to actually take The City.

After him, though, or during a future civil war, there is a non zero chance the population throws open the gates for a Laskarid army.

 

[Avrorrange]

I think you're applying a bit more nationalism than actually existed in this point in history, and like nickmn said, it is a realm with a very large Greek speaking population, forged by a dynasty with Imperial pedigree, and largely structures by the laws of the Empire. It is a fairly strong claim.

At the same time , it ended up bordering the empire , with the majority of the population being more or less Greeks and the rulers have a very much valid claim to the imperial throne . Arguably an even better claim than the current emperor himself .

Wasn’t talking about nationalism. I was pointing out how it’s incorrect to dismiss the Despotate as just another ERE spin off ala Trebizond or Epirus. The despotate is an entity whose claim to legitimacy is not based on ‘Byzantine Imperial’ pedigree, but Hohenstaufen Sicilian Royal/Holy Roman Imperial pedigree. When the despotate first formed, it’s largely dominated by Latins and Greeks who were attenuated to Norman-Sicilian way of governance, where it was just as centralised as the empire of old, but places far more importance on blood and pedigree as per the Latin West. Given how long they have been under the Latin West’s sphere of influence, I somewhat doubt even the Greeks of Sicily/Southern Italy actually cared about who Alexandros I‘s father was, or the ERE in general. They probably don’t even care about the Patriarch of Constantinople. To them, Alexandros’ father was probably another tinpot ‘emperor’. They were following him because he’s got the blood of Stupor Mundi. Given how centralised Sicily already was prior to the Angevin takeover, it’s probably best to say that Alexandros merely hijacked the Hauteville/Hohenstaufen state machinery and gave it a ‘East Roman‘ flavour.In some sense, a Lascarid takeover represents the triumph of the Norman-Sicilian tradition masquerading itself as East Roman. Hence the Death and Rebirth.

With Kantekouzenos in Constantinople and seemingly reasonably popular, I think the Laskarids wouldn't likely be able to actually take The City.

After him, though, or during a future civil war, there is a non zero chance the population throws open the gates for a Laskarid army.

Realistically speaking Kantekouzenos has no means of stopping the Lascarids except through foreign aid, unless the Lascarids lets them finish the process of re-centralising the empire.

 

[Xenophonte]

When the despotate first formed, it’s largely dominated by Latins and Greeks who were attenuated to Norman-Sicilian way of governance, where it was just as centralised as the empire of old, but places far more importance on blood and pedigree as per the Latin West. Giving how long they have been under the Latin West’s sphere of influence, I somewhat doubt even the Greeks of Sicily/Southern Italy actually cared about who Alexandros I‘s father was, or the ERE in general. To them, Alexandros’ father was probably another tinpot ‘emperor’. They were following him because he’s got the blood of Stupor Mundi. Given how centralised Sicily already was prior to the Angevin takeover, it’s probably best to say that Alexandros merely hijacked the Hauteville/Hohenstaufen state machinery and gave it a ‘East Roman‘ flavour.In some sense, a Lascarid takeover represents the triumph of the Norman-Sicilian tradition masquerading itself as East Roman. Hence the Death and Rebirth.

I tend to agree with your interpretation of the Despotate origins and the most likely western influenced mindset of their population at the time of the Sicilian Vespers and about their first Despotat legitimacy claim...
But, also, I think that at the current time, with the start of the third Depot reign, it has likely that with the demographically changes due to the influx of Anatolian Greeks immigrants/refugees.And the what I'd guess that would be a more or less small community of Jews, ones that also were/are encouraged to move/settle in through the years have been settled there, these conditions, mindset and self perception of their populations 'd have been modified and may perhaps be closer to the ones of their rulers than by the ones existent, that you described, in the Depotate origins...

 

[Avrorrange]

I tend agree on your interpretation on the Despotate origins and the most likely western influenced mindset of their population at the time of the Sicilian Vespers and about their first Despotat legitimacy claim...
But, also, I think that at the current time, with the start of the third Depot reign, it has likely that with the demographically changes due to the influx of Anatolian Greeks immigrants/refugies. And the Jews that also were/are encouraged to move/settle in through the years have been settled there, these conditions, mindset and self perception of their populations 'd have been modified and may be more closer to the ones of their rulers than to the ones existent, that you described, in the Depotate origins...

I think it’s far more likely that the new comers got subsumed by the locals than the opposite. Most Anatolian Greeks will not be leaving. It’s probably better to pay the jizya than to leave for an unknown land. At most I could see low 6 digit figure for the total number of Anatolian Greeks who came to Sicily, perhaps around 100k. A significant figure, but far from radically changing the mindset of the realm.

For the past three despots, I think it’s far more likely that the Lascarids have been playing up their Hohenstaufen descent than the reverse given how much they had to deal with the other Latin powers, some of whom were Hohenstaufen descendants themselves. They have likewise also expanded their holdings in Sicily, likely continuing to do so. Like I have been saying before, John III Vatatzis was a nobody in the West. Whether it be dealing with the Angevins or the Aragonese, it’s far better to present yourself as Frederick II’s scion. I suspect not even the Peloponnese Greeks cared who John III Vatatzis was given how long they had been out of East Roman rule. They will probably change this narrative if they actually take the imperial throne though.

Whether you admire the Hohenstaufen or Vatatzis lineage, one thing for certain is that the idea that any man could be emperor as long as they have an army will likely die. No more Basil I or Michael VIII. The Latin respect for blood suited the narrative of both the newcomers and the Lascarids themselves. Another aspect of the rebirth is that with minor exceptions like the Philanthropenos, most of the nobility will be ‘new’ nobles almost divorced from the traditions of the old empire.

Note, I wasn’t referring to legitimacy alone either, but state traditions as well. Even militarily, a fair bit of the Laskarid army was operating off traditional feudal duties to Hauteville/Hohenstaufen kings than through the East Roman pronoia model.

 

[Sphenodon]

I can't see a Siciliote takeover of the ERE having any less continuity than that of the post-1204 restoration (i.e. Empire of Nicaea rolls in to Constantinople and kills off the Latin Empire). As it stands, it is a vassal realm and thus still part of the Empire, and ruled by a noble line that is pretty deeply entrenched in the history of Imperial politics. In terms of statecraft and political structure, the qualities of the Despotate of Sicily seem to more be the child of preexisting Laskarid-Vatatzes trends marrying with the need to interact with Western European feudalism and the Papacy out of pragmatism than the Norman system of Sicily assimilating Byzantine trappings as the Ottomans did.

 

[Xenophonte]

I think it’s far more likely that the new comers got subsumed by the locals than the opposite. Most Anatolian Greeks will not be leaving. It’s probably better to pay the jizya than to leave for an unknown land. At most I could see low 6 digit figure for the total number of Anatolian Greeks who came to Sicily, perhaps around 100k. A significant figure, but far from radically changing the mindset of the realm.

Perhaps, but, it's worth to be noted that, however, reduced that their numbers would be or if they well they would be integrated or even assimilated into the existent population, these immigrant/settlers appear to have been key. First, for the consolidation and in the present ongoing revitalization due to linguistic shift towards the Greek language in the Despotate controlled Sicilia. One, that appears to be reversing the reverse centuries long process of progressive linguistic loss experimented by the Island Greek speakers communities.

Whether you admire the Hohenstaufen or Vatatzis lineage, one thing for certain is that the idea that any man could be emperor as long as they have an army will likely die. No more Basil I or Michael VIII. The Latin respect for blood suited the narrative of both the newcomers and the Lascarids themselves. Another aspect of the rebirth is that with minor exceptions like the Philanthropenos, most of the nobility will be ‘new’ nobles almost divorced from the traditions of the old empire.

Agree, it seem even more possible when coupled with the Vatastes/Lascarids way to rule and administer their State

Note, I wasn’t referring to legitimacy alone either, but state traditions as well. Even militarily, a fair bit of the Laskarid army was operating off traditional feudal duties to Hauteville/Hohenstaufen kings than through the East Roman pronoia model.

Indeed, but, less not forget a key element in both the Vatastes State military and in their society: their fleet. One that was formed and is composed in their overwhelming majority of former, Greek speakers Eastern Romans subjects/sailors and/or their descendants.