What would it be like if there was no way to leave the European Union?

[BigBoy88]

I've been recently looking into EU law including directives and regulations as well as the history that lead to the creation of the EU, including the Maastricht treaty, the treaty of Rome, Euratom, and the EU's 3 pillars from 93' to 09'.

One treaty in particular however that has peaked my interest, is the 2007 Treaty of Lisbon, which established an official legal presence for the EU based on the aims of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. And then became officially enacted in 2009 with the replacement of the 3 pillars into the official European Union that we know of today.

To get to the point, in the 50th Article of the Treaty of the EU, (TEU) there was an established means by which a member state could leave the EU, which was invoked by the UK during brexit for example, the only member-state to have done so.

Now, what if there was no formally established way of leaving the EU? And what if instead of Article 50, or other similar decentralisation measures, there was more centralisation within the EU? How would this affect an upcoming Brexit movement or other European politics?

I'm just thinking about this because in the alternate history TL I'm working on, the institution that is this version's EU is a lot more centralised and German-controlled. Now this is due to other factors in the ATL that are still being developed by me and subject to change, but the overall centralisation of this Alternate EU is a lot more prominent than in OTL. Any suggestions are welcome btw!

 

[Garrison]

Well it would be messier but I doubt it would have stopped what can most politely called Eurosceptics from getting their way, but unfortunately this very much impinges on current politics.

 

[kham_coc]

Given that an eu member state is soverign, in theory all that is required is a declaration from the legislature and then it's done.
It's in practice not different from say Texas seceding, provided that the rest of the US doesn't invade (since the eu doesn't have an army to do that with) and the rest of the world recognises it as a country (which isn't relevant because the RoW already does that, for an eu state).

Now depending on how this eu is formed those things may matter - if we take otl, say vichy France, it may in accordance with international law have the right to leave this EU, but I would immagine that in practice that would be constrained by German force, either overtly or or more subtly.
If we are talking about reichscomisariat moscowien I doubt anyone would regard them as a country.

As for the practical considerations, as brexit (and numerous other independence movements have shown, its secondary). But in practice its pretty clear that the UK was not (is not) capable of brexit, that is, the eu have already taken over sufficient governing capacity that renders the state incapable of managing - with a more centralised eu governance system, it would be functionally impossible to do so for anyone. Not that politics is impacted by reality (in the short term).

 

[DougM]

I am not sure how many countries would agree to join,
It is a bit different then a State leaving the US, Most states were not independent countries to start from. Arguably the first 13 and Hawaii and Texas.
And i don't think the EU is the citizenship so if i am right German Citizens would just be Germans still, but without EU “rights and privileges“ but in the US You are a US citizen so how would you decide whi is a US citizen vs a Citizen of California say?
The vast majority of things like Military and infrastructure are still paid predominately on Country level I believe, so there is little to nothing that the EU owns that is in any given country. Nor are EU owned things dis- proportionally located in one location,
The US is a bit different. We have states that have little to no Federal assets such as military bases or equipment while others seam to have 1/4 of a military branch.
Add in other complications such as debt and then the argument about if a State can leave or not (seams we may have had a nasty argument about that lasting about 4 years and with a lot of folks killed or injured)
So it is a bit different,
But honestly i suspect more then a few countries that are in the EU (or where) would not have joined if they thought they couldn't leave.

 

[Lalli]

EU members would are still formally sovereign nations so EU cannot really do anything.

 

[pompejus]

Now, what if there was no formally established way of leaving the EU?

In that case a way to leave would be made the moment a country want to leave. The EU is not some sort of evil imperialst organisation that wants to absorb the entire world. It is a group of democratic nations that want to cooperate with each other and if one of them decides to leave, it will be allowed to leave

 

[The Wooksta!]

Hotel California, Vic.

I'll get me coat...

 

[Grey Wolf]

In that case a way to leave wouldd be made the moment a country want to leave. The EU is not some sort of evil imperialst organisation that wants to absorb the entire world. It is a group of democratic nations that want to cooperate with eacht other and if one of them decides to leave, it will be allowed to leave

True, but I think this would have made it far less likely that a generally mainstream government would hold a referendum on it, as it would need the result of the referendum to be "Leave" before the EU began to work out how the country was going to do that in practice. Having the way out there in law made it easier for them to hold the referendum on the assumption that only the nutters would vote to leave, and all would be fine.

Without a referendum, leaving would remain the province of the nutcases, whilst serious reform would become the goal of the mainstream parties. In fact, Cameron's approach to get opt-outs and other things may have been totally different, as he was doing that to assuage the nutters and try to see off the need for a referendum, or if there had to be one as a way to win one. Without those requirements, his approach to the EU may have been more trade-based and practical, like Thatcher

 

[wietze]

Hotel California, Vic.

I'll get me coat...

actually it pretty much the describes the current EU situation
final lines of that song:
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave!"

and the same applies to the Eu, you can sign out (no longer be a member), but you can never leave (economically)

Welcome to the hotel Europa, you can sign out, but you can never leave.

 

[CalBear]

Closed per posted policy regarding Current Politics outside of Chat.