Japan never modernises. Which would(if any) would eventually come along and take Japan(or parts of it) as a colonial possession? Spain maybe? Close to the Philippines?
Thoughts?
Thoughts?
Which power would colonise/rule a non-Meiji Japan
- Thread starter Multiverse Agent
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Probably the United States. I don't think that Japan would ever become a formal colony, a protectorate would have been much more probable. The best window of opportunity is after admiral Perry's expedition . Maybe the shogunate would see the "alliance" and "collaboration" with the US the best way to keep Europeans at bay.
Uk and France would have interests in the country, but I think they would focus more on China than a relatively poor nation as Japan. Russia would expand into Manchuria and Corea. Germany would arrive too late to the party.
Uk and France would have interests in the country, but I think they would focus more on China than a relatively poor nation as Japan. Russia would expand into Manchuria and Corea. Germany would arrive too late to the party.
Protectorate, several powers or none. Reasoning: Japan after being forced to open had two things that many other places who were colonized did not have or only had one: It was both united and an island. Makes things much more difficult regardless of tech difference. So broadly I see those three possible outcomes:
1. After being forced to open some incident escalates, war is declared and a punitive expedition eventually and after much higher effort than initially anticipated takes the capital and forces an "Opium War style but more so" treaty on the gouverment that eventually makes it a protectorate as total conquest is seen as too expensive in blood and treasure.
2. After being forced to open instead of the Meji Restoration, we see a longer and more destructive Civil War that also leaves no clear victor, leaving Japan de-jure or de-facto balkanized. Indidiual islands are then weak enough to be taken over. No one power manages to take all as everyone wants a slice and it willing to gang up on someone trying to grab all.
3. After being forced to open an alt-Meji never manages a modernization as successful as in OTL, but still manages to modernize somewhat and also successfully plays the colonial powers against each other. Leading to a Siam style result basically.
1. After being forced to open some incident escalates, war is declared and a punitive expedition eventually and after much higher effort than initially anticipated takes the capital and forces an "Opium War style but more so" treaty on the gouverment that eventually makes it a protectorate as total conquest is seen as too expensive in blood and treasure.
2. After being forced to open instead of the Meji Restoration, we see a longer and more destructive Civil War that also leaves no clear victor, leaving Japan de-jure or de-facto balkanized. Indidiual islands are then weak enough to be taken over. No one power manages to take all as everyone wants a slice and it willing to gang up on someone trying to grab all.
3. After being forced to open an alt-Meji never manages a modernization as successful as in OTL, but still manages to modernize somewhat and also successfully plays the colonial powers against each other. Leading to a Siam style result basically.
I don’t know that it would be formally colonized. It would just be under heavy European influence imo. Most likely the British, but possibly the French. America’s another possibility.
The Portuguese perhaps could take some southernmost islands, but not all of Japan as a whole.
None really, Japan doesn't have any resources to exploit and it would be more profitable to do some trade with it. Russia could start colonizing Hokkaido. It would be just another victim of the unequal treaties.
Yeah, Japan probably just gets bullied. Even before the Meiji it was in pretty good state as non-western countries of the 1800s went. Naval bullying sure, but conquest outright I think is unlikely. But Japan will be smaller. Okinawa and Kurils will get carved out for sure. Hokkaido is likely lost to Russia as it only had a population of about 100k in the 1860s with a lot of farming potential. Some treaty ports with various European powers. I suspect Japan is still looking pretty good by the late 1900s. Japan had quite high literacy rates already by the 1800s which has quite a bit of predictive power for long-term GDP growth. I suspect it looks similar to the OTL Asian Tigers, so running rather behind OTL and never being a major geopolitical player, but ending up in a similar place.
People talk about other countries pulling a Meiji but no country was in as good a position as Japan, which was one of the most populous and literate countries on earth already pre-Meiji. Realistically you could have had more countries pull a Thailand or a Ethiopia.
People talk about other countries pulling a Meiji but no country was in as good a position as Japan, which was one of the most populous and literate countries on earth already pre-Meiji. Realistically you could have had more countries pull a Thailand or a Ethiopia.
Tsushima is also lost to Russia, since IOTL they attempted to seize it but were unsuccessful.
Also, could Portugal try to get a slice of pie by trying to go to the Goto Islands, using the justification of protecting the persecuted Kakure Kirishitan population that was evangelized by them, and how Portugal was the first European country that contacted Japan.
If we literally take 'no Meiji modernization' as a starting point, there would still be Matthew Calbraith Perry and his use of gunboat diplomacy to force Japan to open its borders. So the US would be the prime candidate to colonize Japan.
However that US at that point had no interest in outright making colonies like all other Western countries had. So they would probably keep Japan pesudo-independent but solidly in their sphere of influence and give it a statute roughly comparable to tht Philippines or Cuba.
That would also rule out any European country pressuring Japan into giving it a 'freeport' under their own control like Hong-Kong or German TshingTau/Quingdau. However a Japan colonized or pseudo-colonized before the Meiji revolution would also butterfly away Japan annexing Okinawa or getting involved in Taiwan and Korea. All those regions will be up for grab then. I can see the British Empire gobbling up most of it with some possessions going to Russia -at one point they were pretty close with the Korean Royals- or Germany.
However that US at that point had no interest in outright making colonies like all other Western countries had. So they would probably keep Japan pesudo-independent but solidly in their sphere of influence and give it a statute roughly comparable to tht Philippines or Cuba.
That would also rule out any European country pressuring Japan into giving it a 'freeport' under their own control like Hong-Kong or German TshingTau/Quingdau. However a Japan colonized or pseudo-colonized before the Meiji revolution would also butterfly away Japan annexing Okinawa or getting involved in Taiwan and Korea. All those regions will be up for grab then. I can see the British Empire gobbling up most of it with some possessions going to Russia -at one point they were pretty close with the Korean Royals- or Germany.
I wonder the butterflies that this would have on the rest of the world, WW1 as we know it might look radically different.
Worst case would be OTL China with most Powers having "concessions", as had already been done with the "Unequal Treaties".
As already noted the Japanese were not helpless as far as firearms and cannon are concerned. Between that, the terrain, and the tenacity of the Shogunate's personnel, true colonization would simply be too serious of an investment in blood and treasure for was was, truthfully, fairly limited potential resources
As already noted the Japanese were not helpless as far as firearms and cannon are concerned. Between that, the terrain, and the tenacity of the Shogunate's personnel, true colonization would simply be too serious of an investment in blood and treasure for was was, truthfully, fairly limited potential resources
Colonial possession, I'd say none unless the situation really presents itself.
British and American interests are the most likely to emerge otherwise.
British and American interests are the most likely to emerge otherwise.
It'smaller than California or, to use a European example in order to remind Americans that not all Europeans are Massachussetts-sized like Belgium, Sweden.
Also, by the time phrases like "never modernises" and "non-Meiji" becomes relevant to the implied/assumed POD, guns were
very much not crucial to Japanese warfare, having famously nominally been "given up" centuries ago.
Not to mention that Japan hadn't had that much warfare for roughly as long and gun technology had moved on from
the matchlocks that pre-PerryJapan used.
If Japan doesnt modernize with naval dominance and machine guns any of the great powers could take it. My guess is late 19th century, maybe even early 20th century. The US and the UK are most likely, possibly France, if we are that late Russia will have developed its fleet and railways or even Germany. Or for a bonus to the really evil ones Belgium (IIRC Leopold wanted China before OTL ending up with the Congo).
Edit: My most likely scenario is the british taking it ower as a reaction to the Russian occupation of Manchuria. ITTL they cant rely on Japan as an ally to counter Russian expansionism in the region and as an Island it will seem a secure base to face the russian from if necessery. And they would really not want the russians to have it.
Alternativly London also might encourage the germans to pick it up: it could satisfy a lot of german ambition without any real cost for the british, it would focus german attention away from other areas where the british themselves are interested (maybe even make a deal where the british get some afrcan territories) and make the Germans actually interested in checking russian expansionsim in the Far East (something the germans absolutely refused to do OTL). This would likely result in a british-german alliance.
Edit: My most likely scenario is the british taking it ower as a reaction to the Russian occupation of Manchuria. ITTL they cant rely on Japan as an ally to counter Russian expansionism in the region and as an Island it will seem a secure base to face the russian from if necessery. And they would really not want the russians to have it.
Alternativly London also might encourage the germans to pick it up: it could satisfy a lot of german ambition without any real cost for the british, it would focus german attention away from other areas where the british themselves are interested (maybe even make a deal where the british get some afrcan territories) and make the Germans actually interested in checking russian expansionsim in the Far East (something the germans absolutely refused to do OTL). This would likely result in a british-german alliance.
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Huh? I really don't think it is-
It's the size of France and Spain together, at most-
Considerably smaller than either.
Quick check suggests about three quarters of Spain, and three fifths of France.
Could end up under foreign influence in a similar fashion to Iran, Thailand or Ethiopia. Hell it could suffer direct colonialism at a later date like Ethiopia did.