Which power would colonise/rule a non-Meiji Japan

[EnvarKadri]

China itself did suffer semi direct colonialism and foreign powers were deciding areas of influence.

It boils down to the cost vs reward perception of foreign powers and those foreign powers with the ability to gaib influence coming to an agreement on how to divide the pillaging rights.

Probably mostly to america and UK while Russia might gain a minor part in the north. Dunno if France or the Netherlands could gain anything in the south as a compromise. Maybe the anglos give Bismarck a small island, like the bonin ones, as a compromise.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

I am inclined to think that the British, the Russians, and the Americans would divide a non Meiji Japan into their own spheres of influence.

 

[Multiverse Agent]

Another interesting take is how Korea would be treated if another power came along and how China of the day would interact with it.

 

[Ambassador Huntsman]

I am inclined to think that the British, the Russians, and the Americans would divide a non Meiji Japan into their own spheres of influence.

I would add the French to that list, they were very close collaborators with the shogunate IOTL.

 

[EnvarKadri]

I would add the French to that list, they were very close collaborators with the shogunate IOTL.

Maybe the shogunate survives at the cost of offering greater influence to european powers over japan? Werent the clans that overthrowed the shogunate mostly based on western japan so those places may see areas of influence similar to what happened to china. Of course in the long run it would spell the end of the shogunate as it would be seen as a collaborators regime. They gonna go the way of the qing/KMT.

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Also, the Dutch could gain influence over Kyushu Island and the Ryukyu Islands/ Okinawa and other islands.

 

[Tibi088]

Another interesting take is how Korea would be treated if another power came along and how China of the day would interact with it.

My guess is Russian protectorate and possibly annexed. OTL one of the reasons for the Russo-Japanese war was russian enroachment in Korea. Without Japan there to oppose it I dont think the british will wage war to stop them, so I think its going to be russian in some form.

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

My guess is Russian protectorate and possibly annexed. OTL one of the reasons for the Russo-Japanese war was russian enroachment in Korea. Without Japan there to oppose it I dont think the british will wage war to stop them, so I think its going to be russian in some form.

Perhaps a protectorate, but it's doubtful the Russians can really integrate Korea into the empire that well. They'd have to integrate Manchuria in first, and that's a whole lot of investments and bureaucracy to sort through even before dealing with Korea. Plus, it's not like the Russians really wanted Korea that much. Their influence there was mainly to prevent Japan from threatening Russian Far Eastern interests. To quote Tsar Nicholas II, "I do not want to seize Korea but under no circumstances can I allow Japan to become firmly established there. That will be a casus belli." (The Russo-Japanese War and Modern International Society, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9593-4_3)

Sans worries about Japan, the Russians would likely focus on Manchuria (which itself was seized when it was because Japan won the 1st Sino-Japanese War and were making inroads into Manchuria) and augmenting the Trans-Siberian Railroad to better enable power projection before turning their eye fully to Korea (which would be further stalled by a major European war and/or revolution). And the timeline for all of that is likely delayed because there's no rival in the region to force Russia to speed up their plans.

 

[tinyDelta]

I think Japan in the 19th century is way too much effort to be colonized without preexisting trade relations and existing funneling of resources present in the islands. At most the colonial powers would try to enforce unequal treaties on Japan in this scenario, mainly the United States, the Brits and the Russians. To outright colonize the home islands, the sakoku needs to be butterflied away in my opinion and even then it's not guaranteed that a situation arises where foreign powers can de facto take over Japanese rule. However, if it's done, then suddenly the colonization of China is not out of the question.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Perhaps a protectorate, but it's doubtful the Russians can really integrate Korea into the empire that well. They'd have to integrate Manchuria in first, and that's a whole lot of investments and bureaucracy to sort through even before dealing with Korea. Plus, it's not like the Russians really wanted Korea that much. Their influence there was mainly to prevent Japan from threatening Russian Far Eastern interests. To quote Tsar Nicholas II, "I do not want to seize Korea but under no circumstances can I allow Japan to become firmly established there. That will be a casus belli." (The Russo-Japanese War and Modern International Society, https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-19-9593-4_3)

Sans worries about Japan, the Russians would likely focus on Manchuria (which itself was seized when it was because Japan won the 1st Sino-Japanese War and were making inroads into Manchuria) and augmenting the Trans-Siberian Railroad to better enable power projection before turning their eye fully to Korea (which would be further stalled by a major European war and/or revolution). And the timeline for all of that is likely delayed because there's no rival in the region to force Russia to speed up their plans.

Part of the reason Mongolia exist is Russia wanting a buffer state to protect their sparsely populated far east. Hell in soviet times the People's Republic of Mongolia issued formal request of annexation and they were rejected, unlike Tanu Tuva which was eventually annexed.

So its likely the russians actually could support Korean existence as a buffer state.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Unequal treaties with russia and other european states like UK and USA are likely but not necessarily that bad considering the alternative. they might gain some guarantees of independence. At worse russians might demand a warm water port like port arthur.

 

[Analytical Engine]

At worse russians might demand a warm water port like port arthur.

Busan is one of the world's busiest ports in OTL. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia demanded it

Busan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[EnvarKadri]

I think Japan in the 19th century is way too much effort to be colonized without preexisting trade relations and existing funneling of resources present in the islands. At most the colonial powers would try to enforce unequal treaties on Japan in this scenario, mainly the United States, the Brits and the Russians. To outright colonize the home islands, the sakoku needs to be butterflied away in my opinion and even then it's not guaranteed that a situation arises where foreign powers can de facto take over Japanese rule. However, if it's done, then suddenly the colonization of China is not out of the question.

I feel even the cost of a direct occupation of Japan would be too much compared to the reward for most foreign powers. They could meddle if there is a local faction or government offering the country in exchange of foreign support, but they arent gonna start doing european settlements or install any proper colonial government. Hell even putting a formal protectorate under the Shogunate would be hard bc it would attract conflict among the europeans. The russians and americans would get jealous if the UK curtails japan from them. Something similar to china is more likely. Reminder that except for japan, who is next door, none of the foreign powers mantained any long occupation or government of large parts of china.

It was always a port or a city somewhere, freedom of navegation expeditions along the rivers, and punitive wars followed by imposed unfair trade deals impossible to achieve during peace.

The only situation I can imagineextended occupation over large parts of japan, is either powerful china doing it. Or it being the result of a post WW2 partition of Japan in the style of Germany.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Busan is one of the world's busiest ports in OTL. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia demanded it

Busan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The UK, the Americans and France would probably demand their share too. If they feel Russia is taking too much. Or get more involved in China and Japan at the expense of russia.

 

[Rhymehouse]

I suspect it's never formally colonized, (it's the size of Europe and guns were already crucial to its warfare,) but its trade is dominated by America and Britain. Russia might snipe Hokkaido though

How could anyone who has seen a world map honestly think, Japan is similar in size and population to all of Europe! It is smaller than Norway in terms of land area and smaller than Russia in terms of population.

OT: By the time of the Meiji Restoration (1860s), the Spanish, Dutch, and Portuguese empires are all past their prime. Germany is the one most desperate for colonies, but their navy isn't the best and they don't even get founded until 1871. The UK and France would be interested, but they also have plenty of other territory to worry about. Russia is close to Japan, but once again their navy sucks. If Japan does become a colony, the USA, Germany, or maybe UK will do it. But it is far more likely that even a non-industrialized Japan will just get exploited like China instead of falling under one empire's suzerainty.

 

[AltoRegnant]

How could anyone who has seen a world map honestly think, Japan is similar in size and population to all of Europe! It is smaller than Norway in terms of land area and smaller than Russia in terms of population.

I was misremembering a lot. It's only about as long as Spain to the benelux, and I need to delete the comment.

OT: By the time of the Meiji Restoration (1860s), the Spanish, Dutch, and French empires are all past their prime. Germany is the one most desperate for colonies, but their navy isn't the best and they don't even get founded until 1871. The UK and France would be interested, but they also have plenty of other territory to worry about. Russia is close to Japan, but once again their navy sucks. If Japan does become a colony, the USA, Germany, or maybe UK will do it. But it is far more likely that even a non-industrialized Japan will just get exploited like China instead of falling under one empire's suzerainty.

 

[Lord High Executioner]

Busan is one of the world's busiest ports in OTL. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia demanded it

I am not entirely certain it was anywhere near as busy while Korea was the "hermit kingdom"
(a phrase coined in 1882 specifically in reference to Korea) and looking at the map its location
doesn't quite scream "maritime trade goes here" Singapore-style.

I was misremembering a lot. It's only about as long as Spain to the benelux, and I need to delete the comment.

That's a curious way to describe it, especially considering it has been described in terms of "compared to X", what,
five times now - four of them to European countries that are bigger...

 

[Analytical Engine]

I am not entirely certain it was anywhere near as busy while Korea was the "hermit kingdom"
(a phrase coined in 1882 specifically in reference to Korea) and looking at the map its location
doesn't quite scream "maritime trade goes here" Singapore-style.

Where else in Korea would work, though? Anyway, there's this:

Japan–Korea Treaty of 1876 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[WhatSantayanaSaid]

Busan is one of the world's busiest ports in OTL. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia demanded it

Busan - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The port of Busan only got set up in 1876, which was right around when Japan forced the Joseon to open up finally. It then had its meteoric rise because it wasn't invaded by North Korea in the Korean War and was the primary channel for aid and such to enter Korea, coupled with Korea's manufacturing boom (causing a massive increase in exports) and the decline of agriculture as a primary sector of the economy (which then necessitated large amounts of imports for food and fuel to sustain tens of millions of people). None of those factors are present any time before 1950.

Besides, why would Russia even demand a port from Korea? They're literally neighbors and they could just extend the Transsiberian Railway and the Chinese Eastern Railway into Korea to provide access to Korea's resources if they wanted.

 

[Enigmajones]

In one TL I worked on a while ago I had a Spanish Japan. Don’t know the how’s or why’s it even what it was about but I recall that.