WI: An Austrian Schlieffen-plan in WWI

[Tibi088]

OTL the Austrian plan for a war against Russia and Serbia was to have one army defending against Serbia and 4 focus and attack against Russia. Even if this wasnt horribly botched like OTL and went perfectly it would still not have achieved much of significance.

From 1908 the latest Austria could be pretty much sure that any war involving Russia will also have Serbia fighting against them and any war against Serbia will have at least serious Russian pressure (even if Russia is neutral) on the Galician border to hold Austrian troops there.

So what if instead of attacking against Russia Austria takes a page from the German playbook and decides that they too are not thrilled with the idea of a two front war. So instead of planning for attacking Russia in the hopes of I don't know what (Russia could not be defeated swiftly and had territory in abundance) they will send 2 armies to defeat Serbia while 3 will defend against the Russians. When Serbia is beaten they will transfer the two armies to the galician front to deal with the Russians.

In this case Austria would have the same mobilization and war plan irreverent of fighting against Serbia only or against both Russia and Serbia. Meaning Conrad simply could not botch the mobilization the same way or for the same reason he did OTL. Is there any real chance of the attack on Serbia not being commanded by Potiorek? Maybe someone more senior (and hopefully competent) commanding the second army ordained for the front? What timeframe do you think Austria would estimate for this campaign? Could it work? How would Russians fare if they attacked Austrians in at least somewhat prepared defensive lines?

 

[Dorknought]

Alfred Redl gives over this plan too.

 

[Ilúphatar]

The Serbian forces fought very stubbornly IOTL, and I don't see that changing here. With that said, if the extra forces do lead to earlier Austrian successes (which isn't a given, but might be plausible) I wonder whether Serbia might be able to fall back to somewhere around Niš/Nissa or Pristina rather than needing to retreat through Albania.

I don't know offhand how quickly Bulgaria could enter the fray, but if the Serbs are in trouble then it's very likely they'd want to jump on the bandwagon as soon as they were able.

It's likely to increase King Constantine of Greece's desire for neutrality, if the Central Powers' campaign in the Balkans seems to be going better than IOTL. That could lead to an even more complex diplomatic situation with the Entente later in the war.

There is a possibility that Germany might be less inclined to send aid to the Serbian front as IOTL because the situation was less disastrous for the Central Powers, which could actually see that theatre drag out for longer. On the other hand, Berlin would be able to focus more on the campaign against Russia.

Romania would be in an interesting situation - if they side with the Entente as IOTL, then A-H's continuing commitment against Serbia might make their resistance in Transylvania weaker and leave Bucharest in a stronger position. That's especially true if the Bulgarians are kept out of the war. Conversely, if A-H does overpower Serbia faster than IOTL, then perhaps Romania could even stay neutral for longer?

 

[raharris1973]

I read here once the Serbs were quite close to surrendering in December 1914. Maybe early concentrated pressure pretty much guarantees they are done in during calendar year 1914?

 

[Tibi088]

The Serbian forces fought very stubbornly IOTL, and I don't see that changing here. With that said, if the extra forces do lead to earlier Austrian successes (which isn't a given, but might be plausible) I wonder whether Serbia might be able to fall back to somewhere around Niš/Nissa or Pristina rather than needing to retreat through Albania.

I think that OTL, which was very much a results of astounishing levels of bungling and incompetence in the side of Austria left the world with both an overinflated opinion of the serbian miliary and a way worse opinion of the austrian one than the reality.

OTL the austrian plan was to defend against Serbia and left just enough forces on the Balkan front to do that, concentratiing the rest against Russia. Not to attack. And yet thats what Potiorek, he austrian commander decided to do. It went about as good as you could expect. He further "improved" the situation by trying to execute a plan of attack that was shown to the austrians by their own wargame to end in serbian victory... Thats why I specifically asked if there is a way besides a new POD to remove him.

I expect a different mobilizaton plan reliant on speed would bring a whole load of other benefit to the austrians. Besides avoiding the confusion that was OTL there was another problem with austrian mobilization plans: they were needlessly slow. Their railways and rolling stock capacity would have allowed a much faster mobilizaion that what they planned OTL. In a plan reliant on speed they might decide to speed things up - which would be also great on the galician front.

I don't know offhand how quickly Bulgaria could enter the fray, but if the Serbs are in trouble then it's very likely they'd want to jump on the bandwagon as soon as they were able.

This is also true. Bulgaria really wanted Macedonia - and Austria if initially successfull could convince them to join early - which could really help with a swift termination of the whole Balkan front (at least for now)

It's likely to increase King Constantine of Greece's desire for neutrality, if the Central Powers' campaign in the Balkans seems to be going better than IOTL. That could lead to an even more complex diplomatic situation with the Entente later in the war.

There is a possibility that Germany might be less inclined to send aid to the Serbian front as IOTL because the situation was less disastrous for the Central Powers, which could actually see that theatre drag out for longer. On the other hand, Berlin would be able to focus more on the campaign against Russia.

Again if it works out there would be no need for the germans to send aid there. Again, if things go well the Balkan front and Serbia could be terminated before either Italian or other Entente forces could arrive in the region. There is a probability of it being reopened later but much less so than it was OTL.

Romania would be in an interesting situation - if they side with the Entente as IOTL, then A-H's continuing commitment against Serbia might make their resistance in Transylvania weaker and leave Bucharest in a stronger position. That's especially true if the Bulgarians are kept out of the war. Conversely, if A-H does overpower Serbia faster than IOTL, then perhaps Romania could even stay neutral for longer?

If the war is going better for the CP 's Romania is likely to join their side. I see both Romania and Italy as complete opportunists in WWI who would join the side that seems to be winning or is promising more loot.

IMO the benefits of the plan im proposing would have been a faster mobilization for Austria that they absolutely wont be able to botch like OTL (though i would trust Conrad to come up with some brand new and unimaginably stupid way to f*ck it up somehow), and manage to advance into Serbia till a line somewhere north of Nis - which is I think entirely possible because the OTL serbian plan (on advice from Russia) was to draw back their forces to avoid a swift conclusion. However by reaching that deep into Serbia the austrian troops will be tired and their logistics stretched - they will have the numbers I think not to loose but they will be either stopped there or even if they beat the serbian they will need to stop for the logistics to catch up. If things are going badly on the russian front they also might need to change plans and transfer forces north.

So at this point I think there are 2 decisive questions:
1. Bulgaria, seeing the early austrian sucesses and rapid advance (maybe with some added austrian and german promises) could well jump in - this would be decisive for the Balkan front
2. How is Austria holding up against Russia? The difference to OTL is that the austrian troops wont be tired and expected to defend instead to attack - probably making some preparation in that regards. Numerically they are really the same as OTL because of the botched mobilization one of their armies arrived too late to the front.

 

[Andristan]

Probably the easiest way to get rid of Potiorek would be for the first assassination attempt to succeed, the bomb goes off and kills everybody in the car, Potiorek, FF, Sophie, etc. Simple, still generally gets the war started in a very similar way to OTL.

 

[Catspoke]

OTL the Austrian plan for a war against Russia and Serbia was to have one army defending against Serbia and 4 focus and attack against Russia. Even if this wasnt horribly botched like OTL and went perfectly it would still not have achieved much of significance.

From 1908 the latest Austria could be pretty much sure that any war involving Russia will also have Serbia fighting against them and any war against Serbia will have at least serious Russian pressure (even if Russia is neutral) on the Galician border to hold Austrian troops there.

So what if instead of attacking against Russia Austria takes a page from the German playbook and decides that they too are not thrilled with the idea of a two front war. So instead of planning for attacking Russia in the hopes of I don't know what (Russia could not be defeated swiftly and had territory in abundance) they will send 2 armies to defeat Serbia while 3 will defend against the Russians. When Serbia is beaten they will transfer the two armies to the galician front to deal with the Russians.

In this case Austria would have the same mobilization and war plan irreverent of fighting against Serbia only or against both Russia and Serbia. Meaning Conrad simply could not botch the mobilization the same way or for the same reason he did OTL. Is there any real chance of the attack on Serbia not being commanded by Potiorek? Maybe someone more senior (and hopefully competent) commanding the second army ordained for the front? What timeframe do you think Austria would estimate for this campaign? Could it work? How would Russians fare if they attacked Austrians in at least somewhat prepared defensive lines?

I would assume the Austrians stay on the defense in this TL, perhaps even stay behind the San. I don't see how they Austrians could do much worse then OTL if they do.

I like this POD especially in these German east first scenarios, where I could see an early end to the war with a compromise peace, if the Austrians could actually do something to punish Serbia a bit, like take and hold Belgrade at least.

 

[raharris1973]

Why is it most of the time when people talk about Austria-Hungary doing better in the war they talk about an early focus on Russia and just doing a holding op with the Serbs - so the opposite of this?

 

[Catspoke]

Why is it most of the time when people talk about Austria-Hungary doing better in the war they talk about an early focus on Russia and just doing a holding op with the Serbs - so the opposite of this?

I like the @Tibi088 OP because it is different than the usual thought on this. The best part of this is if it is combined with diplomatic aspects, the Austrians (and Germans) should just let the Russians declare war on them if they dare, while actually delivering punishment to Serbia in the mean-time.

The Germans blew it by declaring war on everyone, then nagging the Austrians to declare war on Russia, then nagging the Austrians to go on the offensive against Russia.

The correct German blank check would be, take care of your Serbian business, do it now, if and when the Russians declare war on you we will declare war on them, but note this blank check has an expiration date of September 30th at which time we agree to a peace conference.

Of course there are problems with this, the Germans never were able to combine the diplomatic and military aspects, that just not in their skill set, its just let the armies go and the rest follows. The Germans would also have to let go of the concept of Russian mobilization means war, it just always puts them on the trigger of war of which the timing and politics might be unfavorable (the Germans were just dooming themselves to a 7 years war, except this time they can't outlast everybody 7 years).

But regardless this saves a whole series of Austrian screw ups, i.e. for starters, deploying back in Galacia then have to march up to the frontier in hot weather, here they just stay put well behind the frontier. The Austrians can handle attrition least of all the great powers, any decent war plan has to consider that.

 

[raharris1973]

I like the @Tibi088 OP because it is different than the usual thought on this. The best part of this is if it is combined with diplomatic aspects, the Austrians (and Germans) should just let the Russians declare war on them if they dare, while actually delivering punishment to Serbia in the mean-time.

Ah - simplicity (one of the principles of war).....and lack of precommitment. Two things savvy politicians often like.

 

[naraic]

Why is it most of the time when people talk about Austria-Hungary doing better in the war they talk about an early focus on Russia and just doing a holding op with the Serbs - so the opposite of this?

Serbia is essentially a minor power. While you can set yourself up for a longer war which may be won by taking them out you can't win a war by fighting Serbia.

If you fight Russia better you can put Germany in a position where they don't need withdraw troops from the invasion of France which some posters would see as putting the Germans in a position where they might win ww1.

Its a view I fundamentally disagree with as I don't feel that German forces transferred East early in ww1 would have been decisive on the Western front but I do understand why there is a focus.

 

[Tibi088]

I like the @Tibi088 OP because it is different than the usual thought on this. The best part of this is if it is combined with diplomatic aspects, the Austrians (and Germans) should just let the Russians declare war on them if they dare, while actually delivering punishment to Serbia in the mean-time.

The Germans blew it by declaring war on everyone, then nagging the Austrians to declare war on Russia, then nagging the Austrians to go on the offensive against Russia.

The correct German blank check would be, take care of your Serbian business, do it now, if and when the Russians declare war on you we will declare war on them, but note this blank check has an expiration date of September 30th at which time we agree to a peace conference.

Of course there are problems with this, the Germans never were able to combine the diplomatic and military aspects, that just not in their skill set, its just let the armies go and the rest follows. The Germans would also have to let go of the concept of Russian mobilization means war, it just always puts them on the trigger of war of which the timing and politics might be unfavorable (the Germans were just dooming themselves to a 7 years war, except this time they can't outlast everybody 7 years).

But regardless this saves a whole series of Austrian screw ups, i.e. for starters, deploying back in Galacia then have to march up to the frontier in hot weather, here they just stay put well behind the frontier. The Austrians can handle attrition least of all the great powers, any decent war plan has to consider that.

Thank you!

As for the germans the problem is that military reality dictates that they are the ones to declare war - even in an East first scenario.
The germans problem is that one of their biggest adventages was that they could mobilize faster than Russia. If the germans wait for Russia to complete its mobilization and declare war / start hostilities when they are ready - while the german troops were ready and could have fought days ago is a very generous / stupid move on the germans part in a situation where they simply cannot really afford to be generous. So even without the Schlieffen plan a german ultimatum to make Russia stop mobilization is still very likely and mobilization would most likely also mean war in an East first scenario for Germany.

Further I criticized the OTL austrian warplan in the Russia and Serbia case because it made no sense whatsoever and would not have any tangible positive result even if fully successfull. But I have to note that the OTL attack into the polish salient might have made sense in a scenario where Germany goes East first. However if we dont change the german plans the Austrians dont need to attack into Poland and can go for Serbia as I proposed which would avoid the possibilities of a lot of their OTL screw ups (see my OP). A bit of a cordination here could have done wonders for both CP's.

I would also note that my OP proposal was not changing anything on the germans side.

The big question is Russia. As others pointed out the russians very likely would have known the Austrian plans because of Redl. But how would this change their own plans?
Not much i think. They cannot afford to weaken / delay the attack on East Prussia because that would leave the germans free to deal with France, and France would cry bloody murder and besides stop the loans which were at this point very important to Russia.
They know that unlike OTL Austria plans to defend and with fewer troops - so the same amount of forces that were thought adequate OTL should be counted more than enough. Could this however mean a transfer of forces against the germans? Maybe but I dont think so,
IMO the Russian would want to save Serbia and thus push forward with an attack against the Austrians as soon as possible wanting to gain victory while part of the Austrian forces are still on the Balkans and Serbia is still alive. Further the russian high command was riven with factionalism which makes any kind of serious reorganization of existing forces unlikely.

A rushed Russian attack into Galicia into at least somewhat prepared Austrian defences - but with serious numerical superiority. Its an interesting question.

Serbia is essentially a minor power. While you can set yourself up for a longer war which may be won by taking them out you can't win a war by fighting Serbia.

If you fight Russia better you can put Germany in a position where they don't need withdraw troops from the invasion of France which some posters would see as putting the Germans in a position where they might win ww1.

Its a view I fundamentally disagree with as I don't feel that German forces transferred East early in ww1 would have been decisive on the Western front but I do understand why there is a focus.

You cannot knock out Russia early - simply impossible. A war with Russia is thus necesserily a long war.

I agree with that being one of the thoughts behing the OTL austrian plan but look at the dates:
Battle of Gumbinnen aug 20: russian victory in East Prussia
Battle of Krasnik aug 23-25: Austrian 1st army defeats russian 4th army
Battle of Tannenberg: aug 26-30
Nattle of Komarov: aug 26- sept 2: another Austrian victory in Poland

The point Im trying to make is by the time the austrians will be in a position to actually fight / defeat the Russians with OTL plans, it would be too late to have any infuence on the East Prussian front. The russians were able to completely lose in East Prussia by than - but could have also won in the same time. With the russians early communication problems (at least in East Prussia) it would have been I think at least half a week, maybe a full week delay before the forces there could have reacted to any news from the austrian front. I also remember reading that the russians handled the german and the austrian fronts completely separately at the start of the war.

I understand the thought behind OTL austrin plan more but I still think it was a stupid plan that could not have achieved anything significant even if successfull.

 

[Catspoke]

Thank you!

As for the germans the problem is that military reality dictates that they are the ones to declare war - even in an East first scenario.
The germans problem is that one of their biggest adventages was that they could mobilize faster than Russia. If the germans wait for Russia to complete its mobilization and declare war / start hostilities when they are ready - while the german troops were ready and could have fought days ago is a very generous / stupid move on the germans part in a situation where they simply cannot really afford to be generous. So even without the Schlieffen plan a german ultimatum to make Russia stop mobilization is still very likely and mobilization would most likely also mean war in an East first scenario for Germany.

Further I criticized the OTL austrian warplan in the Russia and Serbia case because it made no sense whatsoever and would not have any tangible positive result even if fully successfull. But I have to note that the OTL attack into the polish salient might have made sense in a scenario where Germany goes East first. However if we dont change the german plans the Austrians dont need to attack into Poland and can go for Serbia as I proposed which would avoid the possibilities of a lot of their OTL screw ups (see my OP). A bit of a cordination here could have done wonders for both CP's.

I would also note that my OP proposal was not changing anything on the germans side.

The big question is Russia. As others pointed out the russians very likely would have known the Austrian plans because of Redl. But how would this change their own plans?
Not much i think. They cannot afford to weaken / delay the attack on East Prussia because that would leave the germans free to deal with France, and France would cry bloody murder and besides stop the loans which were at this point very important to Russia.
They know that unlike OTL Austria plans to defend and with fewer troops - so the same amount of forces that were thought adequate OTL should be counted more than enough. Could this however mean a transfer of forces against the germans? Maybe but I dont think so,
IMO the Russian would want to save Serbia and thus push forward with an attack against the Austrians as soon as possible wanting to gain victory while part of the Austrian forces are still on the Balkans and Serbia is still alive. Further the russian high command was riven with factionalism which makes any kind of serious reorganization of existing forces unlikely.

A rushed Russian attack into Galicia into at least somewhat prepared Austrian defences - but with serious numerical superiority. Its an interesting question.



You cannot knock out Russia early - simply impossible. A war with Russia is thus necesserily a long war.

I agree with that being one of the thoughts behing the OTL austrian plan but look at the dates:
Battle of Gumbinnen aug 20: russian victory in East Prussia
Battle of Krasnik aug 23-25: Austrian 1st army defeats russian 4th army
Battle of Tannenberg: aug 26-30
Nattle of Komarov: aug 26- sept 2: another Austrian victory in Poland

The point Im trying to make is by the time the austrians will be in a position to actually fight / defeat the Russians with OTL plans, it would be too late to have any infuence on the East Prussian front. The russians were able to completely lose in East Prussia by than - but could have also won in the same time. With the russians early communication problems (at least in East Prussia) it would have been I think at least half a week, maybe a full week delay before the forces there could have reacted to any news from the austrian front. I also remember reading that the russians handled the german and the austrian fronts completely separately at the start of the war.

I understand the thought behind OTL austrin plan more but I still think it was a stupid plan that could not have achieved anything significant even if successfull.

If attacking west first, using the mobilization speed advantage makes sense, not sure if attacking east it gets the Germans much since it's middle of August before there moving across the Russian border in strength anyway, and the Russians are closer to their mobilization spots, so maybe if east first the Germans can wait for complete mobilization, and reap the diplomatic advantages of waiting to declare war, there are economic advantages in waiting as well as the Germans can crash import stuff in the intervening days, prepare the colonies, outfit raiders etc.

 

[sdgottsch]

Would the Imperial German Army ever be persuaded to lend a Corps to the attack? Which one is in the best position and with supply lines to assist in either the East defense of AH or the attack on Serbia?