WI: Armada and spanish invasion succeeds, a Catholic and Habsburg England

[Tibi088]

The PoD is in 1588 the Armada on its way decisivly defeats the english at Plymouth. The duke of Parma is made to take the invasion effort seriously and so he takes Calais where the boarding wont be a problem. His troops land in southern England without further issue, defeats the english forces and are in London shortly. Elizabeth flees first north and after further defeats to abroad. Isabella, Philip's daughter is installed as the new queen of England (she has some legitimacy as a descendant of John of Gaunt). A smaller expedition takes Ireland (here the local catholics rise up against the hated english protestants in support). In England a big protestant rebellion start shortly. The start is promising and the english catholics are sympathetic as they dont like the spaniards. This changes however the rebellion commits atrocities against the catholics making some of the latter start to side with the spanish. The main force of the rebellion is defeated by 1593 with mop up of the stragglers lasting into 1595. But Isabella's rule is secured. A huge number of english protestants leave the country - a lot of them to the Netherlands but many further east. Isabella implements similar religious policies which she did OTL as governor of the spanish Netherlands (not allowing open practice for protestants but tolerating it a home) which results in the slow recatholization of the country.

What would be the long term consequences of a catholic England?
Who would Isabella marry? OTL she married late because they were hoping to marry her to Rudolf II but I don't think they will wait if she is Queen of England. She had OTL three shildren but all of them died very young - maybe if she was married younger and to someone not of the family these would help with healthier children?

 

[marktaha]

Pavane by Kenneth Roberts
Ruled Britannia by Harry Turtledove

 

[ordinarylittleme]

What would be the long term consequences of a catholic England?

James VI doesn't inherit, so the chaos of the Stuarts do not happen. No union of the crowns.

 

[FouDuRoy]

What kind of queen would Isabel be ? Would she defend her new kingdom's interests or would she be Spain's puppet? I guess she would not turn against her father but, after his death, everything becomes possible. Considering how inapt her half-brother was, I hardly see her submitting to him.
What would she do about colonialism? Of course, building an English colonial empire means challenging Spain.
Would the English Civil War be butterflied away? Or would it happen sooner?

A successful armada may also have consequences on the War of the Three Henrys. King Henri III of France may not dare to kill the duke and the cardinal of Guise who were supported by Spain. I don't think Henri de Guise would usurp the throne of France but I guess he would become an omnipotent prime minister. Who would be Henri III's successor is an open question. Probably a Catholic Bourbon.

Who would Isabella marry? OTL she married late because they were hoping to marry her to Rudolf II but I don't think they will wait if she is Queen of England. She had OTL three shildren but all of them died very young - maybe if she was married younger and to someone not of the family these would help with healthier children?

James VI doesn't inherit, so the chaos of the Stuarts do not happen. No union of the crowns.

Maybe James VI would convert and marry Isabel.

 

[Tibi088]

What kind of queen would Isabel be ? Would she defend her new kingdom's interests or would she be Spain's puppet? I guess she would not turn against her father but, after his death, everything becomes possible. Considering how inapt her half-brother was, I hardly see her submitting to him.
What would she do about colonialism? Of course, building an English colonial empire means challenging Spain.
Would the English Civil War be butterflied away? Or would it happen sooner?

Spain and England shared a rival in France. The french were already making attempts at colonization of North America and the spanish simply did not have the man (as in settlers) and forces to stop them. So would it be out of the question that with the tacit approval of Spain who prefers the english allies in North America to the french enemies the colonization effort can go forward?

Maybe James VI would convert and marry Isabel.

That would be interesting but would the scotts agree?

 

[ordinarylittleme]

Would she defend her new kingdom's interests or would she be Spain's puppet?

I suspect England and Spain will find themselves making similar tactical decisions for a few decades

 

[Supasoulja_X]

Until Spain goes bankrupt all is smooth. Then France capitalizes and encourages a revolt by backing the exiles.

England may stay catholic but not under Spanish rule for more than 50 years.

Now how this affects the colony game is up to grabs. I can see Spain backing the Haitians to get back at France. Yet will this matter to the English colonies? Jamestown and others are developing by now. Will they join Canada and Jamaica is being loyalist? Will this create a large drain on Spanish coffers?

 

[ordinarylittleme]

England may stay catholic but not under Spanish rule for more than 50 years

What? If Spain rules England for 50+ years surely it would be likelier for England to stay Catholic?

 

[Supasoulja_X]

What? If Spain rules England for 50+ years surely it would be likelier for England to stay Catholic?

That whole economic collapse of Spain thing and the French intervention may have an adverse affect. The Spanish might even hasten their end by the expenditures needed to pacify England and the colonies.

Will the revanchist Anglican repats go Reconquista on the Spanish backed catholics? Will the common Englishman back French catholicism, Spanish catholicism or be so pissed at "foriegn" agitation that they go die hard Anglican nationalism?

 

[Tibi088]

England may stay catholic but not under Spanish rule for more than 50 years.

England is not under Spanish rule - England is catholic and ruled by Isabella, the daughter of Philip II. That does not mean England is under spanish rule - the spanish troops left as soon as possible because they were needed elsewhere and England is its own player. The difference is its catholic and allied / friedly to Spain at least for a time. If Isabella does not marry a Habsburg the dynasty wont even be Habsburg after her.

 

[Mikestone8]

Does Isabella still die childless? If so what happens after 1633?

 

[isabella]

The PoD is in 1588 the Armada on its way decisivly defeats the english at Plymouth. The duke of Parma is made to take the invasion effort seriously and so he takes Calais where the boarding wont be a problem. His troops land in southern England without further issue, defeats the english forces and are in London shortly. Elizabeth flees first north and after further defeats to abroad. Isabella, Philip's daughter is installed as the new queen of England (she has some legitimacy as a descendant of John of Gaunt). A smaller expedition takes Ireland (here the local catholics rise up against the hated english protestants in support). In England a big protestant rebellion start shortly. The start is promising and the english catholics are sympathetic as they dont like the spaniards. This changes however the rebellion commits atrocities against the catholics making some of the latter start to side with the spanish. The main force of the rebellion is defeated by 1593 with mop up of the stragglers lasting into 1595. But Isabella's rule is secured. A huge number of english protestants leave the country - a lot of them to the Netherlands but many further east. Isabella implements similar religious policies which she did OTL as governor of the spanish Netherlands (not allowing open practice for protestants but tolerating it a home) which results in the slow recatholization of the country.

What would be the long term consequences of a catholic England?
Who would Isabella marry? OTL she married late because they were hoping to marry her to Rudolf II but I don't think they will wait if she is Queen of England. She had OTL three shildren but all of them died very young - maybe if she was married younger and to someone not of the family these would help with healthier children?

She would marry either James VI of Scotland or her cousin Ernest of Austria…

 

[Tibi088]

Does Isabella still die childless? If so what happens after 1633?

I only know that OTL she had 3 children but all died young - I do not know the reason for their deaths. She also married her cousin and married pretty old. So with an earlier and non-relative marriage she might have children who do live to be adults.

 

[Mikestone8]

I only know that OTL she had 3 children but all died young - I do not know the reason for their deaths. She also married her cousin and married pretty old. So with an earlier and non-relative marriage she might have children who do live to be adults.

It may be earlier but is it likely to be non-relative? The Spanish Habsburgs' record makes that distinctly doubtful.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

The PoD is in 1588 the Armada on its way decisivly defeats the english at Plymouth. The duke of Parma is made to take the invasion effort seriously and so he takes Calais where the boarding wont be a problem. His troops land in southern England without further issue, defeats the english forces and are in London shortly. Elizabeth flees first north and after further defeats to abroad. Isabella, Philip's daughter is installed as the new queen of England (she has some legitimacy as a descendant of John of Gaunt). A smaller expedition takes Ireland (here the local catholics rise up against the hated english protestants in support). In England a big protestant rebellion start shortly. The start is promising and the english catholics are sympathetic as they dont like the spaniards. This changes however the rebellion commits atrocities against the catholics making some of the latter start to side with the spanish. The main force of the rebellion is defeated by 1593 with mop up of the stragglers lasting into 1595. But Isabella's rule is secured. A huge number of english protestants leave the country - a lot of them to the Netherlands but many further east. Isabella implements similar religious policies which she did OTL as governor of the spanish Netherlands (not allowing open practice for protestants but tolerating it a home) which results in the slow recatholization of the country.

What would be the long term consequences of a catholic England?
Who would Isabella marry? OTL she married late because they were hoping to marry her to Rudolf II but I don't think they will wait if she is Queen of England. She had OTL three shildren but all of them died very young - maybe if she was married younger and to someone not of the family these would help with healthier children?

Somehow (and honestly don't ask me how) I still feel the Glorious Revolution will happen.
- A Catholic England joined with Catholic Spain (this is going on the theory that Isabella would seize the throne of Spain from her half-brother) could ally with the also Catholic France under Louis XIV
- There would still be an underground Protestant movement in England who would seek foreign help in overthrowing Isabella and bringing back Elizabeth (while she's alive) or securing a Protestant Tudor succession (failing that, a Protestant Stuart succession)
-English mercantile ineterests, unless Isabella offers them concessions to keep them in line, would be agitating for war when they're driven from their markets in favor of Spain.
-Inasmuch as the Pope might welcome the return of England to the Catholic fold, by this point, the Pope would be more concerned with finding allies (even if heretical ones) to threaten Louis XIV (if a Pope was willing to ally with Orthodox Muscovy-Russia to oppose the Ottomans, why not?)

It will ultimately all boil down to Louis XIV and what he does.

 

[Tibi088]

Somehow (and honestly don't ask me how) I still feel the Glorious Revolution will happen.
- A Catholic England joined with Catholic Spain (this is going on the theory that Isabella would seize the throne of Spain from her half-brother) could ally with the also Catholic France under Louis XIV
- There would still be an underground Protestant movement in England who would seek foreign help in overthrowing Isabella and bringing back Elizabeth (while she's alive) or securing a Protestant Tudor succession (failing that, a Protestant Stuart succession)
-English mercantile ineterests, unless Isabella offers them concessions to keep them in line, would be agitating for war when they're driven from their markets in favor of Spain.
-Inasmuch as the Pope might welcome the return of England to the Catholic fold, by this point, the Pope would be more concerned with finding allies (even if heretical ones) to threaten Louis XIV (if a Pope was willing to ally with Orthodox Muscovy-Russia to oppose the Ottomans, why not?)

It will ultimately all boil down to Louis XIV and what he does.

Louis XIV, a catholic had no qalms about supporting the protestants in the 30 years war against the catholics and supporting the turks against the catholics. He has also fought Spain more than once. I do not see a huge catholic alliance because their interest do not align in any other sense.

AFAIK at the beginning of Elizabeths reign the catholics were still a majority in England. Here the protestants were beaten, rebelled and beaten again - after which a lot of them has left the country. Isabella's recatholization policies OTL on the Spanish Netherlands were pretty successfull. I think that though there will remain a protestant element to english society by the end of Isabella's reign they will not be strong enough to threaten to take over the Kingdom.

I also think that the spanish alliance will be severely tested by the clashing interest of the two nations and though it will most likely last at least the reign of Isabella her successors are likely to break with Spain - at least if they cannot come to an agreement. As I said Spain simply had neither the interest nor the capacity to colonize North America, which their rivals, the french, the dutch and the protestant swedish were trying to do. I think that Spain might be persuaded pretty easily to support english catholic colonization attempts in North America instead of allowing heretics and rivals free reign in the region.

 

[GenghisKhanfan]

Louis XIV, a catholic had no qalms about supporting the protestants in the 30 years war against the catholics and supporting the turks against the catholics. He has also fought Spain more than once. I do not see a huge catholic alliance because their interest do not align in any other sense.

AFAIK at the beginning of Elizabeths reign the catholics were still a majority in England. Here the protestants were beaten, rebelled and beaten again - after which a lot of them has left the country. Isabella's recatholization policies OTL on the Spanish Netherlands were pretty successfull. I think that though there will remain a protestant element to english society by the end of Isabella's reign they will not be strong enough to threaten to take over the Kingdom.

I also think that the spanish alliance will be severely tested by the clashing interest of the two nations and though it will most likely last at least the reign of Isabella her successors are likely to break with Spain - at least if they cannot come to an agreement. As I said Spain simply had neither the interest nor the capacity to colonize North America, which their rivals, the french, the dutch and the protestant swedish were trying to do. I think that Spain might be persuaded pretty easily to support english catholic colonization attempts in North America instead of allowing heretics and rivals free reign in the region.

Louis XIV also revoked the Edict of Nantes, so there's not exactly any love for the Protestants either.
His main opponent, no matter the conflict he was involved in, was the Hapsburgs.

Now I do agree there wouldn't be a mega-alliance, particularly if Spain and England end up in a dynastic union. France, already fearful of being encirled by Hapsburg territory, would be pushed to attack. They could align with the Ottomans (as they've done before) and with many of the German Protestant electors such as the ones in Hanover and Brandenburg.

As for the Hispano-English alliance, its possible Isabella will put measures into place to maintain that union after her death, and it might be easier because of the fact both states see France as a major threat. It is, of course, also possible that divergent interests might fracture this union to the point where, like Portugal in 1680, England breaks away from Spain.

 

[Tibi088]

Louis XIV also revoked the Edict of Nantes, so there's not exactly any love for the Protestants either.
His main opponent, no matter the conflict he was involved in, was the Hapsburgs.

Now I do agree there wouldn't be a mega-alliance, particularly if Spain and England end up in a dynastic union. France, already fearful of being encirled by Hapsburg territory, would be pushed to attack. They could align with the Ottomans (as they've done before) and with many of the German Protestant electors such as the ones in Hanover and Brandenburg.

As for the Hispano-English alliance, its possible Isabella will put measures into place to maintain that union after her death, and it might be easier because of the fact both states see France as a major threat. It is, of course, also possible that divergent interests might fracture this union to the point where, like Portugal in 1680, England breaks away from Spain.

The big difference would be that unlike Portugal England will not be in a personal union with Spain. England will not break away, just breaks the alliance, or lets it lapse - unless its worthwhile for them to maintain it.