ship count, based on a full RN effort at the time of the Scarborough Raid:
RN Battleships = Total to sail = 19
13.5" - 12 total - Thunderer in refit, not sure on Erin's whereabouts, so say 10 available to sail
12" - 10 total - unsure on refits, say one is in refit, so say 9 available to sail
RN Battle Cruisers = total to sail =4
13.5" - 4 total - Princess Royal in Caribbean (re: von Spee)
3 available to sail
12" - 6 total - 2 in South Atlantic (re: von Spee), 1 in Pacific, 2 in refit
1 available to sail
Armoured cruisers: Most of the big ones still on overseas duty
4 County type ... under Packenham
4 x County type other squadron (cant find my file to verify)
pre-dreadnoughts
3rd Battle squadron
8 x King Edwards, 2 x Duncan
Potential RN for December 1914 Dogger Bank:
19 x BB
4 x BC
8 x CA
say 12 x CL
up to 80 DD
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High Seas Fleet
Battleships = 14
12" BB = 10
1 x Konig, 5 x Kaiser, 4 x Helgoland
11" BB = 4
4 x Nassau
*** possibility of one more Konig
Battle cruisers = 4
12" BC = 1
Derfflinger
11" BC = 3
Seydlitz, Moltke, vonn der Tann
Old Battleships =8
Armoured Cruisers =3
Large CA =1
Blucher
older CA =2
Roon and Prinz Adalbert(?)
High Seas Fleet sailing
14 x BB
4 x BC
3 x CA
up to a dozen CL
75 tb
Raw numbers show a decided advantage to RN, however there are other things to take into consideration. British 12" BB are not the greatest.Poor protection, combined with poor damage control at that time, doesn't help survivability. HMS Neptune is somewhat of an exception to this rule. A good number of these designs were over loaded. Dreadnought herself, along with the Bellerophons and St.Vincents had the bulk of their belts submerged due to this.
In 13.5" gunned ships, they are overall much better. Still not up to the German level, but more than likely to defeat a lot of the 11" shells ... at least, they will have a harder time. Orions and KGV are the lower end of the strata, While Erin and in particular Iron Dukes a very noticeable cut above ... they should stand up rather well in a punch up. These ships should do quite well in any meeting with the High Seas Fleet, and their heavier shells, even if not properly penetrating, will be hard on the High Seas Fleet. . The Germans didn't like them at Jutland, and they're not likely to do much better here.
Other than if the German BC's catch them, or something stupid happens (re: Arbuthnot at jutland), the CA's should do not too bad ... just keep them away from the Big Boys. in normal scrapping they can take a good beating and survive, just don't offer yourself up to a battle line at under 10,000 yard range.
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As to the High Seas Fleet, the Konig's are best in class, and Kaiser's not far behind ... Kaiser losses some advantage with having wing turrets, but still fine ships.
Oldenburgs are a bit more of a challenge, however, they are still up to standard. Their big issues are reciprocating machinery and four wing turrets, but they will still give a good account of themselves.
Nassau's are somewhat more limited, slower and with 11" main batteries, along with those cluster of wing turrets. But what the hell, all around quite a bit better than the Dreadnought design , and at least marginally better than the Neptunes all things considered.
The German battle cruisers are great ships, Derfflinger herself is in MHO one of the best designs of the period, other than 12" battery.
the remaining trio are good ships too.
vonn der Tann is the worst, and that is still not a bad place to be ...
roughly comparable to the Lions when comparing armour and such although a somewhat better layout of protection
Moltke : armour better than most old British Battleships, and better than the British designs of BC
Seydlitz:a very good design as well at least as good as Moltke
as to Blucher, well she's a good ship given the circumstances ... although she's a bit like a teenager at a baby shower ...the kids are too young for Blucher to play with, and the adults won't give Blucher a beer ...
These three battle cruisers only real failing was their 11" main battery. No big issue against British BC's, however they won't be as effective against RN BB , particularly newer ones.
the High Seas Fleet had a much better grip on damage control and other preventative measures such as ... ahem ... AMMUNITION HANDLING ... (sputter , cough)
The British shells at this point will be better as they are from pre-war stocks, the powder will probably be somewhat more stable as well. British handling and safety procedures will still not be quite up to snuff, as it had become lax when Callaghan commanded the Home fleet before Jellicoe .... the whole thought process started under Callaghan, Jellicoe was the Gunnery/ranging critter, he would tone it back somewhat after he took over the Grand fleet, while Beatty would take it to a whole new level with the battle cruisers, particularly after Dogger Bank.
German signalling was better, up until 1916 , British start catching up after Jutland.
Germans had better sighting equipments, however it was harder on the operators. they could target quicker, however the
RN system would apparently hold target better once on.
German had better night fighting systems, better 'artificial fog'
IMHO , I give the advantage in light craft to the RN ... nothing really wrong with the Germans, its just the British ones are bigger and more numerous.
Torpedoes, well a lot seem to favour the German ones, however at Jutland, they put one into Marlborough and she made it home ... even held in the battle line for a while after the hit. Imho, the secret to the RN somewhat better success with the torpedoes was that the bigger size of the British DD's, along with a more aggressive (if haphazard) deployment, worked in the RN's favour. They lost more, however they got a better result.
the British managed a few hits ... don't have the numbers and I.D's handy, but at least two of the BC's and one of the old B's... and the old B went up after eating one.
... okay ... sorry for the rambling ... so what happens in a 1914 encounter?
probably not much more than what happened OTL.
the trick for the most part will be if the British are heavily outnumbered , they'll bug out in all likelihood ... Beatty might be a bit of a crapshoot on that
The HSF did not want to fight the whole Grand Fleet (understandable ... no real point to doing that) The only way that will happen is for Jellicoe to cut them off from home in pristine weather conditions ... fat chance of that happening in the North Sea.
Scarborough in 12/16 ... All admiral Ingenohl encountered was a few destroyers, and took them to be the van of the Grand Fleet ... He went home, didn't even tell Hipper ... just left. It is easy to ponder over what might have happened that day if it had carried on into a scrap ... wouldn't likely have been good for the RN, however, they would have made due.
The Germans had convinced themselves that they couldn't meet the full Grand Fleet, right or wrong. Ingenohl's choice of Scarborough sets that out, and both Hipper's choice at Dogger Bank , and Scheer at Jutland drives it home.
The truth of the matter is that for either side to get to the advantageous position that they desired, they would need much better scouting and communications than were available at that time.
... if they do meet somehow, they will each lose a few ships ... probably with the RN losing more than the HSF ...
When they are done their donnybrook , they go home .... the HSF takes a poke every now and then, but the RN will still own the mud puddle.
You know, I think the point that is often missed in all this is that neither side really wants to see a big chunk of their naval budget for the past umpteen years sitting on the bottom of the North Sea, and for the most part, even if they manage to do it to the other critter, by default, the same sort of thing will be delivered up on themselves.
It's easy as a spectator/commentator/ armchair tactician to sit here and imagine just what might have been. Realistically though, out of all the useless losses in World War 1, the biggest saving grace might possibly be that these two fleets never quite found the will or the way to beat each other senseless.
Some might say 'what a waste of resources', and they might be right, for nothing really changed.
But think of it this way, what if they did meet in a proper set piece battle, pounded the holly hell out of each other...
Some might say 'what a waste' and they would likely be right, for nothing would have changed in this option either .... other than a hell of a lot of sailor men not going home.
... damn ... I can prattle some times ...
have yourselves a great rest of the week!