WI: Hungarian victory and Mongol disaster at Mohi

[Ultima Ratio]

So I just came across this video about the less-discussed Battle of Mohi. I was surprised that it was at a few times quite a close call, and if the Hungarians were prepared better, they might have even won.

So, here's an idea:
The Cuman leader Köteny is not killed by an angry mob in Pest before the battle, leading to them staying with the king's army, giving it a significant light cavalry contingent. With the Cumans not devastating the countryside, more forces arrive as well, although for all the nobles to send all their forces, we would need an earlier PoD, this might give Bela more heavy cavalry. When the first Mongol contingent arrives, it's not Frederick who rides out to meet them, but instead a Cuman force, thus leading to Frederick and his knights actually staying with the army.

Now off to the battle. King Bela and his army arrives at the Sajo river, and the Cuman cavalry is sent out to scout both north and south for the Mongols, and they quickly bring back news of the enemy's main forces amassing beyond the river. Köteny also advises the king to look out for any Mongolian cavalry trying to ford the river.

The king sends out a force under Ugrin as OTL, to defend the bridge, but they are also accompanied by some Templars. As OTL, they push the initial Mongols forces back, and immediately send for help to the camp. The Cumans also report that smaller Mongol forces are attempting to ford the river. Frederick, Ugrin and Bela both agree to prepare for a battle immediately, instead of delaying like a dumbass as OTL.

So they ride out, the Cumans harassing the Mongols to the North, while the German knights form the right flank to defend against Subotai's forces.

So the northern Mongols force now has great trouble fording the river and incur heavy losses from the Cumans, unable to join Batu's main force at the bridge in time. Seeing this, the Hungarians force a pitched battle with the Mongols' backs to the river as OTL. However, Subotai, having a larger force than those in the north, sweep aside any Cuman harassing cavalry and turn up at the extreme right flank of the Hungarian force. Frederick, noticing this, takes his heavy cavalry from the right flank to meet them. Supported by the retreating Cumans, they try to force the Mongols into melee, but Subotai instead continues to harass them, drawing the knights further out.

In the meantime, the heavier Hungarian forces grind down the Mongols in the middle and Batu is killed by a sword to the gut. Supported by the artillery on the far side, the Mongols start to retreat, but incur heavy losses as news of Batu's death spread.

On the right flank, Subotai, seeing the main force's retreat, but not knowing of the exact situation, decides to fight the Templars and attack the king from the behind. Finally able to meet the Mongols in close combat, the knights charge with renewed vigor, and Subotai's attack is stopped in its tracks. The lightly armored Mongols are killed, and Subotai himself is hit by a Cuman arrow. Injured, and seeing how the battle is lost, he orders a retreat to the ford, with Templars in pursuit. The battle, already a disaster, turns into outright catastrophe when Subotai faints while crossing the river, and falls of his horse, drowning shortly after. The frantic search of his bodyguard in the water stalls the crossing and the Mongol rearguard is attacked by the slower Templars, and promptly getting slaughtered.

In the center, what little remains of the Mongols army manages to retreat over the bridge under artillery cover, but are soon followed by Ugrin and the Hungarian cavalry. Seeing how they cannot catch up with the Mongols, the Hungarians instead burn their artillery pieces and loot the camp. Hearing of the defeat, the northern fording party also retreats in good order.

What do you think, is this plausible? What could be the repercussions? Mind you, this is 1241, so Ogedei dies in December, meaning the Mongols will retreat in 1242 as OTL. The question is if they can reorganize and mount a new attack in time.

Would love to read the opinion of some of the experts on Hungarian history, like @Fehérvári @Magyarország and @Petike

 

[Superninja76]

Would the support of a larger contingent of cumans have mattered? There was a pretty massive amount of tension in hungary, and many magyar nobles refused to join the king in the battle because they hated him (from what i've seen largely due to his support of cumans over themselves), would the nobles provide as much support as they did, or even the increase you've proposed? The mongols were very capable at taking advantage of internal problems like this (and it's my personal belief that they did help incite the riot at pest which ultimately killed koteny), and they can't exactly be fixed. No matter who bela supports, someone will hate someone.

As a side-note, Frederick II didn't exactly have a rosy relationship with the cumans either, and it's feasible he may not even participate with them around in greater numbers, as he left historically due to problems involving them.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Would the support of a larger contingent of cumans have mattered? There was a pretty massive amount of tension in hungary, and many magyar nobles refused to join the king in the battle because they hated him (from what i've seen largely due to his support of cumans over themselves), would the nobles provide as much support as they did, or even the increase you've proposed? The mongols were very capable at taking advantage of internal problems like this (and it's my personal belief that they did help incite the riot at pest which ultimately killed koteny), and they can't exactly be fixed. No matter who bela supports, someone will hate someone.

As a side-note, Frederick II didn't exactly have a rosy relationship with the cumans either, and it's feasible he may not even participate with them around in greater numbers, as he left historically due to problems involving them.

Interesting. My impression was that those few nobles that actually showed up to muster knew that they have to fight alongside the Cumans. Perhaps if the Cumans are treated as a completely separate contingent, not allowing them to mix with the Germans and Hungarians? Or maybe, seeing the writing on the wall, Bela makes some promises to the nobles?

 

[Superninja76]

Interesting. My impression was that those few nobles that actually showed up to muster knew that they have to fight alongside the Cumans. Perhaps if the Cumans are treated as a completely separate contingent, not allowing them to mix with the Germans and Hungarians? Or maybe, seeing the writing on the wall, Bela makes some promises to the nobles?

Making promises to the nobles is kind of uncharacteristic for him. To put it bluntly, bela was kind of a tyrant compared to his predescessor.

"Béla declared that his principal purpose was "the restitution of royal rights" and "the restoration of the situation which existed in the country" in the reign of his grandfather, Béla III.[48] According to the contemporaneous Roger of Torre Maggiore, he even "had the chairs of the barons burned"[49] in order to prevent them from sitting in his presence during the meetings of the royal council.[31]Béla set up special commissions which revised all royal charters of land grants made after 1196.[48] The annulment of former donations alienated many of his subjects from the King.[31] Pope Gregory IX protested strongly at the withdrawal of royal grants made to the Cistercians and the military orders.[41][46] In exchange for Béla's renouncing of the taking back of royal estates in 1239, the Pope authorized him to employ local Jews and Muslims in financial administration, which had for decades been opposed by the Holy See.[41][50]

After returning from Magna Hungaria in 1236, Friar Julian informed Béla of the Mongols, who had by that time reached the Volga River and were planning to invade Europe.[48] The Mongols invaded Desht-i Qipchaq—the westernmost regions of the Eurasian Steppes—and routed the Cumans.[51] Fleeing the Mongols, at least 40,000 Cumans approached the eastern borders of the Kingdom of Hungary and demanded admission in 1239.[52][53] Béla only agreed to give them shelter after their leader, Köten, promised to convert together with his people to Christianity, and to fight against the Mongols.[52][54][55]However, the settlement of masses of nomadic Cumans in the plains along the Tisza River gave rise to many conflicts between them and the local villagers.[52] Béla, who needed the Cumans' military support, rarely punished them for their robberies, rapes and other misdeeds.[52][56] His Hungarian subjects thought that he was biased in the Cumans' favor, thus "enmity emerged between the people and the king",[57] according to Roger of Torre Maggiore."

That's a poorly-edited excerpt from the wikipedia article on bela. For a tl;dr, he took back royal lands given to the nobles by his father, and even lands his father hadn't given away but were previously in royal hands. I doubt the veracity of the chair-burning, but it's clear that bela did not behave kindly with his people nor his nobles, and his actions were driven almost purely by self-interest. (taking lands for himself, getting help from the cumans at the cost of the respect of his people, etc etc etc.)

And, segregating the army based off of ethnic grounds..I suppose that would help alleviate the tensions, but it may not have helped very much on a tactical level.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Making promises to the nobles is kind of uncharacteristic for him. To put it bluntly, bela was kind of a tyrant compared to his predescessor.

I wouldn't call him a tyrant, given how generous his father was with handing out estates to the nobles. But yeah, you're right. Still, he managed to field a large army, despite the Cuman issue. So if he manages to somehow segregate them, such as not telling the Cumans to muster at Pest, both forces could take the field. From what I see, along with the general poor management of the battle, the Hungarians severely lacked scouting capabilities, something the Cumans can provide. If they can notify the king of the Mongols trying to ford the river, then they have a huge tactical advantage. Archbishop Ugrin seems to have been a capable man. If there are some experienced Templars and Teutons as well in the army, they could convince the king to act more decisively, especially if they know about the two flanking contingents. Given how bad the battle was managed, I don't think having a large force of light cavalry can hurt the Hungarians. Tensions or no tensions.

 

[Namayan]

I think you are missing something, the reaction of Subotai to these changes.

In Otl subotai chose the place to engage and was aware of hungarian army movements and more likely their size/composition. Even the video stated Suboati could see the enemy camp.

If there were changes as you described, I dont think Subotai would engage at the same place at the same time, using the same tactics as OTL.

 

[Rion_marcus]

I agree with the general course of the battle you described (it was a close call after all even in OTL). My question is that how do this victory change the internal politics of Hungary. Béla emerged victoriously from a battle against an grate enemy. Would he be able to capitalize on this by pushing harder against the barons and stop the late Árpad age fragmentation of the country? Or does the high losses in the battle force him to still support the emerging barons, like in OTL?

 

[RGB]

In the meantime, the heavier Hungarian forces grind down the Mongols in the middle and Batu is killed by a sword to the gut. Supported by the artillery on the far side, the Mongols start to retreat, but incur heavy losses as news of Batu's death spread.

So OTL only one Chingizid prince was killed in battle during the entire series of Western Campaigns, and that was Kulkan/Hulgen at the battle of Kolomna in Russia. The Mongols still won that battle. Nobody else came even close to replicating that.

Whatever the POD this kind of thing I'd expect to be an extremely rare event.

 

[Namayan]

I agree with the general course of the battle you described (it was a close call after all even in OTL). My question is that how do this victory change the internal politics of Hungary. Béla emerged victoriously from a battle against an grate enemy. Would he be able to capitalize on this by pushing harder against the barons and stop the late Árpad age fragmentation of the country? Or does the high losses in the battle force him to still support the emerging barons, like in OTL?

It was close because Batu made a blunder move, engaging earlier.

Dont think Subutai would make the same blunder engaging a larger army than otl at the same Time using the same tactics, at same place . He would just order a retreat before engaging. It was one of the reasons why Frederick did Not participate in battle since he thought he “won” vs the mongols by taking the field.

Subutai would employ feigned retreat tactics far longer before engaging most likely not at Sajó river. Battle of Mohi would happen only at Sajó River if the Cumans, Hungarians, and fredrick been whittled down to manageable size.

best POd to happen is Subutai was killed or die a natural death(him being 60s by this Time) before hand and Batu make that same blunder.

 

[Fehérvári]

So I just came across this video about the less-discussed Battle of Mohi. I was surprised that it was at a few times quite a close call, and if the Hungarians were prepared better, they might have even won.

So, here's an idea:
The Cuman leader Köteny is not killed by an angry mob in Pest before the battle, leading to them staying with the king's army, giving it a significant light cavalry contingent. With the Cumans not devastating the countryside, more forces arrive as well, although for all the nobles to send all their forces, we would need an earlier PoD, this might give Bela more heavy cavalry. When the first Mongol contingent arrives, it's not Frederick who rides out to meet them, but instead a Cuman force, thus leading to Frederick and his knights actually staying with the army.

Now off to the battle. King Bela and his army arrives at the Sajo river, and the Cuman cavalry is sent out to scout both north and south for the Mongols, and they quickly bring back news of the enemy's main forces amassing beyond the river. Köteny also advises the king to look out for any Mongolian cavalry trying to ford the river.

The king sends out a force under Ugrin as OTL, to defend the bridge, but they are also accompanied by some Templars. As OTL, they push the initial Mongols forces back, and immediately send for help to the camp. The Cumans also report that smaller Mongol forces are attempting to ford the river. Frederick, Ugrin and Bela both agree to prepare for a battle immediately, instead of delaying like a dumbass as OTL.

So they ride out, the Cumans harassing the Mongols to the North, while the German knights form the right flank to defend against Subotai's forces.

So the northern Mongols force now has great trouble fording the river and incur heavy losses from the Cumans, unable to join Batu's main force at the bridge in time. Seeing this, the Hungarians force a pitched battle with the Mongols' backs to the river as OTL. However, Subotai, having a larger force than those in the north, sweep aside any Cuman harassing cavalry and turn up at the extreme right flank of the Hungarian force. Frederick, noticing this, takes his heavy cavalry from the right flank to meet them. Supported by the retreating Cumans, they try to force the Mongols into melee, but Subotai instead continues to harass them, drawing the knights further out.

In the meantime, the heavier Hungarian forces grind down the Mongols in the middle and Batu is killed by a sword to the gut. Supported by the artillery on the far side, the Mongols start to retreat, but incur heavy losses as news of Batu's death spread.

On the right flank, Subotai, seeing the main force's retreat, but not knowing of the exact situation, decides to fight the Templars and attack the king from the behind. Finally able to meet the Mongols in close combat, the knights charge with renewed vigor, and Subotai's attack is stopped in its tracks. The lightly armored Mongols are killed, and Subotai himself is hit by a Cuman arrow. Injured, and seeing how the battle is lost, he orders a retreat to the ford, with Templars in pursuit. The battle, already a disaster, turns into outright catastrophe when Subotai faints while crossing the river, and falls of his horse, drowning shortly after. The frantic search of his bodyguard in the water stalls the crossing and the Mongol rearguard is attacked by the slower Templars, and promptly getting slaughtered.

In the center, what little remains of the Mongols army manages to retreat over the bridge under artillery cover, but are soon followed by Ugrin and the Hungarian cavalry. Seeing how they cannot catch up with the Mongols, the Hungarians instead burn their artillery pieces and loot the camp. Hearing of the defeat, the northern fording party also retreats in good order.

What do you think, is this plausible? What could be the repercussions? Mind you, this is 1241, so Ogedei dies in December, meaning the Mongols will retreat in 1242 as OTL. The question is if they can reorganize and mount a new attack in time.

Would love to read the opinion of some of the experts on Hungarian history, like @Fehérvári @Magyarország and @Petike

Oh my god, I love this!

 

[Wendell]

Any chance for Terteroba kings of Hungary here?

 

[Ultima Ratio]

It was close because Batu made a blunder move, engaging earlier.

Dont think Subutai would make the same blunder engaging a larger army than otl at the same Time using the same tactics, at same place . He would just order a retreat before engaging. It was one of the reasons why Frederick did Not participate in battle since he thought he “won” vs the mongols by taking the field.

Subutai would employ feigned retreat tactics far longer before engaging most likely not at Sajó river. Battle of Mohi would happen only at Sajó River if the Cumans, Hungarians, and fredrick been whittled down to manageable size.

best POd to happen is Subutai was killed or die a natural death(him being 60s by this Time) before hand and Batu make that same blunder.

How about this: Subotai fords the river, only to see the center of the army being annihilated. Seeing the Hungarian right wing moving to engage him, he first starts a skirmish, but as news reaches him of Batu's death, he retreats with most of his contingent intact. However, being bottled up on the bridge, the center gets slaughtered, those few who manage to get to the other side are rallied by Subotai and retreat. The battle is still a disaster, so the Mongols retreat beyond the Carpathians. Subotai recalls the raiding forces sent to Transylvania to supplement his losses and try to mount a new attack during winter when the frozen rivers are more easily crossed. They do start raiding in early December, but before any decisive battle could be fought, Ogedei dies and Subotai marches home.

 

[Namayan]

How about this: Subotai fords the river, only to see the center of the army being annihilated. Seeing the Hungarian right wing moving to engage him, he first starts a skirmish, but as news reaches him of Batu's death, he retreats with most of his contingent intact. However, being bottled up on the bridge, the center gets slaughtered, those few who manage to get to the other side are rallied by Subotai and retreat. The battle is still a disaster, so the Mongols retreat beyond the Carpathians. Subotai recalls the raiding forces sent to Transylvania to supplement his losses and try to mount a new attack during winter when the frozen rivers are more easily crossed. They do start raiding in early December, but before any decisive battle could be fought, Ogedei dies and Subotai marches home.

Yeah that could happen. Subutai could purposely abandon Batu himself. Subutai and Batu had been fighting(internal squabbles) since Kalka river.

I think the question you have to make yourself is if Subutai was willing to engage a larger army or not with little to no intelligence. In OTL he engaged Hungarians when he knew/he could see the Hungarian army, therefore composition, before the battle. If he did not see that, he would just retreat until he gathers more intelligence.

As for Subutai engaging everyone at the same time with little to no intelligence, Cumans, Frederick and larger Hungarian army, in my opinion will not occur. Subutai is too smart, too experienced to make simple mistakes like those.

The strategy of Subutai was to separate armies and potential aiders before any pitch battle. So Subutai either retreats or Subutai engages them separately before Mohi.

If Subutai let the Hungarians gather a larger army, if his strategy was to engage in one large pitch battle, Subutai could simply retreat and gather a larger army before engaging the Hungarians. Call in Baidar, Orda, Kadan from Legnica, Guyuk from Transylvania etc. This happened in OTL after Mohi when armies from Guyuk and Kadan unified with Subutai and Batu. So delaying is advantageous for Subutai than engaging a larger enemy.

Now, if you remove Subutai, then yes, Batu may engage the Hungarians who has a larger army than OTL with little to no intelligence before the armies from Legnica and Transylvania merges with Batu.

Batu made blunders even in Russia. Batu was simply not experienced nor talented field commander at the levels of Genghis or Subutai or the other noyan generals like Jebe or Muqali. He was there because was a kin to Genghis no to his own merit as a commander.

 

[alexmilman]

So I just came across this video about the less-discussed Battle of Mohi. I was surprised that it was at a few times quite a close call, and if the Hungarians were prepared better, they might have even won.

So, here's an idea:
The Cuman leader Köteny is not killed by an angry mob in Pest before the battle, leading to them staying with the king's army, giving it a significant light cavalry contingent. With the Cumans not devastating the countryside, more forces arrive as well, although for all the nobles to send all their forces, we would need an earlier PoD, this might give Bela more heavy cavalry. When the first Mongol contingent arrives, it's not Frederick who rides out to meet them, but instead a Cuman force, thus leading to Frederick and his knights actually staying with the army.

Now off to the battle. King Bela and his army arrives at the Sajo river, and the Cuman cavalry is sent out to scout both north and south for the Mongols, and they quickly bring back news of the enemy's main forces amassing beyond the river. Köteny also advises the king to look out for any Mongolian cavalry trying to ford the river.

The king sends out a force under Ugrin as OTL, to defend the bridge, but they are also accompanied by some Templars. As OTL, they push the initial Mongols forces back, and immediately send for help to the camp.

The initial force had been seemingly only few hundred strong.

Cumans also report that smaller Mongol forces are attempting to ford the river.

Yes, there was a small fake attack on the North.

Frederick, Ugrin and Bela both agree to prepare for a battle immediately, instead of delaying like a dumbass as OTL.

Proving that they are idiots buying the Mongolian trick.

So they ride out, the Cumans harassing the Mongols to the North, while the German knights form the right flank to defend against Subotai's forces.

In a meantime Batu moves his stone throwers to the bridge and starts bombardment which forces opposing Hungarians to retreat to the camp (as in OTL).

So the northern Mongols force now has great trouble fording the river and incur heavy losses from the Cumans,

Highly unlikely by 2 reasons: 1st, this force was not supposed to do anything besides demonstration and 2nd, the Cumans would suffer heavier losses - unlike the Mongols, they had a minimal protective armor or not at all.

unable to join Batu's main force at the bridge in time.

They were not supposed to and they did not.

Seeing this, the Hungarians force a pitched battle with the Mongols' backs to the river as OTL. However, Subotai, having a larger force than those in the north, sweep aside any Cuman harassing cavalry and turn up at the extreme right flank of the Hungarian force. Frederick, noticing this, takes his heavy cavalry from the right flank to meet them. Supported by the retreating Cumans, they try to force the Mongols into melee, but Subotai instead continues to harass them, drawing the knights further out. In the meantime, the heavier Hungarian forces grind down the Mongols in the middle and Batu is killed by a sword to the gut. Supported by the artillery on the far side, the Mongols start to retreat, but incur heavy losses as news of Batu's death spread.

Underlying fundamental mistake is an assumption that the Mongols were light cavalry. Actually, they had heavily armored contingents (IIRC, in mid-XIII the Europeans did not yet use barding but the heavy Mongolian cavalry had it so it is an open question who was heavier. Another problem with that stratagem is that taking already engaged (against Batu) forces and marching them elsewhere was quite difficult both because this would weaken the force fighting Batu and because this was not a regular cavalry of the modern times: discipline and ability to maneuver of the knightly contingents was quite limited. An idea that Subotai would be dancing around instead of attacking implies that he was a nincompoop and not one of the greatest generals in history.

BTW, it is unlikely that Batu was ever fighting in the front ranks (to be killed by a sword): while heroics of that type are recorded for many of his cousins, there is no (AFAIK) similar record for him. In general, unlike the Western practice of that time, a general was NOT supposed to ride at the front.

snip.

What do you think, is this plausible?

Extremely unlikely. 1st, it assumes that the Cumans at that time could pose a serious challenge to the Mongols in an open field (at Kalka they had been easily routed even when backed up by the Russians). 2nd, it exploits a wrong assumption that the Mongols did not have armored cavalry and that they were somehow inferior to the Western opponents. 3rd, it assumes that Subotai was incompetent moron. 4th, it assumes that the medieval knight could easily maneuver on a battlefield. 5th, it assumes that Batu's death would be of some fundamental military significance.

 

[alexmilman]

How about this: Subotai fords the river, only to see the center of the army being annihilated.

Why do you think that this was possible (outside Hungarian imagination)? He was fighting for couple hours supported by his "artillery" and the losses for which he was reprimanding Subotai did not look too high.

Seeing the Hungarian right wing moving to engage him, he first starts a skirmish,

No, in the situation like that he would most probably launch an attack and smash the Hungarians with his heavy cavalry. Pretty much as happened at Kalka.

but as news reaches him of Batu's death, he retreats with most of his contingent intact.

Batu was mostly a political figurehead appointed because it was formally his domain to conquer. It does not mean that he was a nincompoop, just that his death in a battle would not matter.

However, being bottled up on the bridge, the center gets slaughtered, those few who manage to get to the other side are rallied by Subotai and retreat.

General of Subotai's caliber would not allow to find himself in such a situation.

In general, the premise that the battle was a confrontation of the equal opponents is fundamentally wrong. On Hungarian side, with or without the Cumans, you have a bunch of the undisciplined feudal bands led by the mediocre (at best) leaders without an unified command. They can charge and they can flee and that's pretty much it.

On the Mongolian side you have a high-quality regular army with an iron discipline led by the great general with the experienced subordinates.

The traditional argument about the Western heavy cavalry is ignoring the fact that the Mongols also had a heavy cavalry with an advantage of being more disciplined than their Western opponents. Then, of course, goes one more misconception: "heaviness" of the Western cavalry. It is mid-XII and the knights are wearing mail, not a plate armor of the later period. Their horses are not, yet, the huge destriers and I'm not sure if the horses already using a protective armor. Then, "the knights" means the individual armored knights with their personal bands wearing much less effective protection (all the way down to a padded jacket). In other words, nothing like the wall of steel. And as soon as individual knight is engaged it is quite difficult to control him just because he is not trained to fight in formation.

OTOH, in the Mongolian heavy cavalry everybody is armored and the horses have a protective armor as well. Admittedly, the horses are smaller than the Western ones but they are faster and the Mongols are operating as the disciplined units with a well-developed chain of command. They are basically in the same situation as the regular European cavalry of the XVIII fighting the Asiatic irregulars (with the roles reversed).

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Why do you think that this was possible (outside Hungarian imagination)?

Well, apparently Batu himself was in the thick of it and had to be defended by his own bodyguard. It also seems that the center with their back to the river were actually losing the battle until Subotai arrived. Granted, the video I posted might not be a valid source, but wikipedia also seems to confirm it.

 

[kholieken]

would Ogodei (or other future Khan) have to send an army to avenge death of Ghengisid prince ?

 

[Namayan]

Well, apparently Batu himself was in the thick of it and had to be defended by his own bodyguard. It also seems that the center with their back to the river were actually losing the battle until Subotai arrived. Granted, the video I posted might not be a valid source, but wikipedia also seems to confirm it.

Batu was the Anvil in otl. He was there on purpose. Otherwise the standard Mongol tactic Was feigned Retreat. Mohi was the trap for moves done years before. Intelligence gathering, attacks on poland, transylvania, pscholoogical Warfare done to Cuman and Hungarian relationship, fredrick gave UP due feigned retreats, while other parts of Hungary were raided. This whittled down the Hungarian Allied army. This is why Subutai chose the time during Mohi to strike due to the right situation while knowing the position and size of the opposing army.

Now if the Allied army wasnt smaller than otl and Subutai dead, reactions of Batu would either engage the hungarians or merge with Army of Güyük and Kadan.

Subutai betraying Batu due to Internal squabbles or Subutai dying before battlE can have a large effect on the outcome of the battle then the Cumans or Frederick or the hungarians in full force or all combined.

With Subutai dead, having the Cumans and Frederick in the army, Batu making a blunder the hungarians have a fighting chance but would still be 50/50.

But if Subutai were Alive and not betray Batu there is no chance the hungarians winning the war even if Batu died. Nor would Subutai allow the situation of the battle you mentioned absent of Internal squabbles

would Ogodei (or other future Khan) have to send an army to avenge death of Ghengisid prince ?

Depends on the situation. If Subutai were alive, he would just win and sack Hungary like in OTL. Revenge done.

If Subutai were dead before the battle, Batu dies in battle, makes blunder moves, Mongol army loses, his direct family members might attack again like Orda/Berke or the remaining Invasion army

There were still two Mongol invasion armies roaming around Europe at that time, Orda was still in Legnica, Guyuk in Transylvania. So even if Hungarians win vs Batu, they will still have to face the armies of Orda and Guyuk who weren't as capable as Subutei but werent as blunder prone as Batu.

 

[alexmilman]

Well, apparently Batu himself was in the thick of it and had to be defended by his own bodyguard.

Ah, but here we have an interesting problem with translation to which, I'm afraid, we don't know the right answer.

In Wiki: "In this fighting, Batu lost thirty of his baatars(heavily armoured bodyguards) and one of his lieutenants, Bakatu, when he personally assaulted a strong point with the vanguard."

But "baatar" was not necessarily a bodyguard. The word ("Baghatur", "Batyr", "Bogatyr", "Bator") was a honorific title meaning "hero" or "valiant warrior". Subutai is referred to in the Secret History of the Mongols as baghatur. Yesugei, the father of Genghis Khan, is called Yesugei Baghatur. Two Mughal emperors were named Bahadur Shah: Bahadur Shah Iand Bahadur Shah Zafar II. And the list goes on.

Back to the battle, text from Subotai's biography (quoted from "Субэдэй. Всадник, покорявший вселенную" В. А. Злыгостев with the reference to the Mongolian source) is a little bit different.
Batu: "During the battle at the river Khonin Subotai was late with his help and I lost my Bakatu (*)".
Subotai: " Chzu-Van (**) knew that the the river is shallow upstream and still he took the bridge so that he could cross the river and start fighting without checking that I did not, yet, finished preparing the rafts downstream. Today he keeps saying that I was late and thinks that this is the reason."

After which Batu also understood the situation. No mentioning of the personal bodyguards or Batu's.

Another quote from the same book (again, author's quotation from the "original" source): '"Batu's army started fighting for the bridge but instead of using it, every 30th of his warriors died (***) and with them perished his subordinate general Bakatu".... Still the attackers, using the stone throwers, gained the ground and started crossing the river. Bela IV and his brother Coloman started concentrating their troops which made Batu fearful. "After the crossing Chzu-Van, seeing the increasing enemy's force, decided to request Subotai's return hoping for his help. However, Subotai was sticking to the plan. He sent a messenger to Batu ti say that "Van wants to return - he can return. I'll not turn back until I reach Pest on the Danube!" (****)... It is possible that Subotai was delaying his attack waiting until the Hungarians will concentrate their forces against Batu.'

But there is nothing about Batu's personal "heroics". Actually, as a commander, he was supposed to "led from the rear" (which is now a pejorative by the reasons I can't quite figure out ).
__________________________________________________
(*) Bakatu was son of Sheibani and as such, Batu's nephew. Of course, he was distressed.
(**) Batu's title - he never was a "Khan"
(***) Which means up to 2,000.
(****) Target of the Hugarian campaign.

It also seems that the center with their back to the river were actually losing the battle until Subotai arrived. Granted, the video I posted might not be a valid source, but wikipedia also seems to confirm it.

Video aside, Wiki is not always a perfect source, to put it mildly.

 

[kalamona]

Ah, but here we have an interesting problem with translation to which, I'm afraid, we don't know the right answer.

In Wiki: "In this fighting, Batu lost thirty of his baatars(heavily armoured bodyguards) and one of his lieutenants, Bakatu, when he personally assaulted a strong point with the vanguard."

But "baatar" was not necessarily a bodyguard. The word ("Baghatur", "Batyr", "Bogatyr", "Bator") was a honorific title meaning "hero" or "valiant warrior". Subutai is referred to in the Secret History of the Mongols as baghatur. Yesugei, the father of Genghis Khan, is called Yesugei Baghatur. Two Mughal emperors were named Bahadur Shah: Bahadur Shah Iand Bahadur Shah Zafar II. And the list goes on.

Back to the battle, text from Subotai's biography (quoted from "Субэдэй. Всадник, покорявший вселенную" В. А. Злыгостев with the reference to the Mongolian source) is a little bit different.
Batu: "During the battle at the river Khonin Subotai was late with his help and I lost my Bakatu (*)".
Subotai: " Chzu-Van (**) knew that the the river is shallow upstream and still he took the bridge so that he could cross the river and start fighting without checking that I did not, yet, finished preparing the rafts downstream. Today he keeps saying that I was late and thinks that this is the reason."

After which Batu also understood the situation. No mentioning of the personal bodyguards or Batu's.

Another quote from the same book (again, author's quotation from the "original" source): '"Batu's army started fighting for the bridge but instead of using it, every 30th of his warriors died (***) and with them perished his subordinate general Bakatu".... Still the attackers, using the stone throwers, gained the ground and started crossing the river. Bela IV and his brother Coloman started concentrating their troops which made Batu fearful. "After the crossing Chzu-Van, seeing the increasing enemy's force, decided to request Subotai's return hoping for his help. However, Subotai was sticking to the plan. He sent a messenger to Batu ti say that "Van wants to return - he can return. I'll not turn back until I reach Pest on the Danube!" (****)... It is possible that Subotai was delaying his attack waiting until the Hungarians will concentrate their forces against Batu.'

But there is nothing about Batu's personal "heroics". Actually, as a commander, he was supposed to "led from the rear" (which is now a pejorative by the reasons I can't quite figure out ).
__________________________________________________
(*) Bakatu was son of Sheibani and as such, Batu's nephew. Of course, he was distressed.
(**) Batu's title - he never was a "Khan"
(***) Which means up to 2,000.
(****) Target of the Hugarian campaign.



Video aside, Wiki is not always a perfect source, to put it mildly.

The video for sure misses the topography by some extent... the rivers seem to be somewhat odd place, with or without the XIX. century works.

Worth checking the google maps anyway, the satellite view, or this:

https://mapire.eu/hu/map/europe-19c...80076166,6112715.165236215&layers=osm,158,164

We are not sure, even where exactly took te battle place (Muhi at the time was about 5 km to the west, Hídvég ("Bridge-End") souther, etcetcetc, this year or maybe next year there will be some results from some large-scale metal detector survey... maybe), but it can be seen, that the terrain is wet, marshy, swampy (and still is, btw).

And the main ting, that the two armies were separated by the river.

Now, things got interesting:

The Sajó River is the first major river east of te Danube other than the Tisza and on the main road - the battle took place where the Mongols wanted it, most likely they wanted to attack the hungarian army during river crossing.
Béla contrary to popular beliefs (or maybe Kálmán, the more military-minded broter) was not a complete moron: he gave no battle for the mongols that way. Instead, he left a relatively strong guard at the bridge and camped on - see what te mongols want.
Now, i dont really buy the "half of the army and the nobles get drunk celebrating victory" - the nobles did not participated in the night battles, and the whole thing sounds... weird.
Most likely they gone camping, left a guard at the bridge, waiting for the next day.
Now, Subotai seeing that his first plan not works, changed them: early dawn attack at the bridge, keeping the hungarian attention there and flanking the army.
However, it was a risky plan, since not only his divided the army, but the divided parts also divided by the river crossing - if the hungarian army sniffs it or the timing goes south, he would have been in trouble. However, not only his assesment of the situation was right, he was lucky too (important attribute of generals) - his delay with the crossing was possibly not intentional, but simply took too much time. Most likely e had to build some kind of road trough the swampy area surrounding the river.
Now, with the austrian knights and the Cumans...the chances that the hungarian army notices the flanking not to mention, can react to those flankings, Subotai could be not so lucky.
Of course, he was one of the greatest military minds, but Béla (or Kálmán - my suspicion) was a cautious one and the OTL battle was already a closer thing than the results suggests.

BTW, if you can share the Mongolian view of the battle - it seems, you can access them - in english, i would be grateful..