They also generally aren't insane, stupid or suicidal (granted I have know a few that might fit those labels) and can pretty easily see how attacking the UK ends, so short of an Irish hating ASB, even if the Government was insane enough to order this, I imagine the Staff would have to apologise and point to the fact the DF vehicle fleet can't even move everyone, and moving to the border is going to take some "time"... Time that would likely be spent replacing the government with people not set on national disaster.
WI Ireland took advantage of the Falklands War to launch a sneak attack on Britain and liberate Ulster?
- Thread starter Charles III Stuart
- Start date
I don't think the UK will wait to be bribed by the US on article 5, they just won't invoke it.
1). they hardly need to, and doing so just make things more complicated
2). they know the US will owe them for not doing so anyway
I also dont think the the UK armed forces will head south unless absolutely forced to, they will just look like the big kid thumping the little kid if they do (no matter what the little kid did). They can basically sit on their side of the border and annihilate anything that gets close and still look like the injured party.
Also frankly heading south just complicates things for the UK anyway, not just practically but also in terms of potentially stirring some sympathy for the ROI
However rest assured we are going to take the piss about it for a very ling time!
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Derek Pullem
Donor
If he had he would be impeached as it is a clear breach of NATO treaty obligations under Article 5.
I agree the UK would not go south unless they absolutely had to but that's the first scenario I suggested the brief border war, if they kept annihilating everything but the republic kept pushing eventually they'd have to go south to make the stupidity stop although do agree with the issues about this so it would be as limited and tactical as possible.
The odd thing here is you need an Irish gov willing to start the war in the first place so I'm sort of pricing in that the gov on the south of the border aren't rational so there's a decent shot the Brits would have to actually go in to Dublin (very briefly/ this would not happen if the other side was rational but then there would not be a fight in the first place...)
Re article 5 yeah I agree the UK would not outright threaten to trigger it more the numerous bits of support the us would offer at home and abroad would be silently acknowledged by all parties as the us at least providing a down payment on the favour of the UK not doing so, so still a bribe but a much pilote and diplomatic one where no one acknowledges this
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No, it wouldn't. For one, they aren't that foolish. Second, Ireland during WWII wasn't ROI, it was Free State of Ireland, with George VI as its king. If they did that, they would commit treason against their king, which was absolutely last thing they needed at the time!
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Have I mentioned that Ireland has an insane position on defence, thats not a modern creation, its always been there. Ireland in WW2 wasn't capable of anything anymore than Ireland of 1980s was (or Ireland of 2024 either)
Ah, no it wasn't the Free State had ceased at that point (though London was still ignoring that) and arguably George VI wasn't after the Abdication Crisis and the changes Dev made then. Effectively by that point Ireland Empire/Commonwealth adjacent, I mean London might have consider it "treason" but more just basic insanity, not that either side trusted each other of course.
Ah, I stand corrected. However, I doubt that the rest of Commonwealth would be happy with Ireland had that happen, even if Ireland wasn't active in Commonwealth since early 30's. Agree to disagree?
Attacking the UK at any point... But in the midst of WW2, unhappy would be an understatement (though I imagine the same would have been true with the UK if Churchill had pushed all the way to invading the Treaty Ports.
The funny thing being of course its the Dominions that generally argued for restraint from London in dealing with Ireland, they were prime forces in pushing for the Peace Talks in the War of Independence, and for not reacting when the Republic was declared for example.
But without the mountains all around, without a good chunk of rich folks' money, and with all its major cities on the coast yes.
Another thought, if this invasion is after 1972, that'd mean a war between two members of the EC. I wonder if there's any policy in place for such a scenario
Practical issues are still the same*, but in this scenario they kiss goodbye any chance of any sympathy from pretty much anyone internationally except Hitler and he's going to have his hands too full to help them.
It's actaully worse for the republic because if they did this in 1941 as opposed to 1981, I think the British will have less of a sense of humour about it
*in fact there's likely more UK armed forces stationed in at home and free to to stop than in 1981 even with the war going on!
Enter our good friend Mr Gaddafi sorry colonel
Maybe some elements of the Irish government are complicit in collaborating with him
Obviously, I still feel a full scale. Invasion is a little too much, however a Tet like attack, hitting many major British military installations over a course of couple of days in the realm of possibility without it being ASB
And if you combine that, but some other aspects like a mutiny in the British army, when large scale coverup of atrocities against Irish Catholics are discovered
And perhaps smuggling help from some Irish Americans ex servicemen
Maybe some elements of the Irish government are complicit in collaborating with him
Obviously, I still feel a full scale. Invasion is a little too much, however a Tet like attack, hitting many major British military installations over a course of couple of days in the realm of possibility without it being ASB
And if you combine that, but some other aspects like a mutiny in the British army, when large scale coverup of atrocities against Irish Catholics are discovered
And perhaps smuggling help from some Irish Americans ex servicemen
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The point being that in terms of "neutral European nations" we tend to be an outlier, mainly due to the fact for most of the time the economy just simply couldn't afford anything, nowadays its just the insane kneejerk aversion/nonsense to defence matters.
Given the timeframe, I doubt theres much in the Treaties on what to do in such a case?
I think that any possible attack on United Kingdom by ROI is ASB. Last time ROI had people fought in a war was Irish Civil War. By 1981, the veterans of that war would be either dead or too old to fight another war.
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I mean in the 1940/41 period you have this insane position of both sides trying to both agree on joint defence matters, and also expecting the other side to attack, which made for some interesting discussions. But yeah, in reality its pretty much the same state, a badly equipped, hopeless outnumbered Irish force against a Superpower that's going to be "unhappy"...
The only outcome there is Churchill getting the Ports back, and a lot of dead Irish people.
You do get that at this point the DF main focus is ATCP against the various RA's? The idea that they are going to just up and decide to launch an attack on the British Army (and be able to in the first place) is ASB.