WI: Japan Attacks the USSR in 1941

[ExScientiaTridens]

Soon after the initiation of Operation Barbarossa, debate began within Japan concerning whether they should launch an attack to the "North". Foreign Minister Matsuoka was a chief proponent (even after claiming the recent USSR-Japan non-aggression pact as a personal triumph), believing that Germany would quickly crush the Soviets and Japan would get nothing unless they joined the assault.

The Navy opined that it was not possible to attack "North" and "South" at the same time, and delaying the southern attack was debated. It appears the Japanese thought US intervention in response to an attack on the USSR was unlikely, but "possible" (but also believed the US was not yet prepared for war).

Berlin made a formal request through diplomatic channels on 30 June 1941 for Japan to initiate a second front.

So, what happens if Japan delays their attack against Singapore, the DEI and the Philippines while launching an attack against the USSR?

 

[GlobalHumanism]

They get smacked, and that's speaking lightly.
The Khalkhin gol skirmishes exposed servere weaknesses in the Japanese armed forces that in a situation of open conflict with the Red Army would be deadly.
Lack armor and Anti-Tank weaponry being some of the biggest.

 

[Magnum]

They get smacked, and that's speaking lightly.
The Khalkhin gol skirmishes exposed servere weaknesses in the Japanese armed forces that in a situation of open conflict with the Red Army would be deadly.
Lack armor and Anti-Tank weaponry being some of the biggest.

Although, to be fair, they achieved a superior Kill-death ratio despite being outnumbered more than 2:1 and the Soviets stripping the entire border of their best units to be used in the attack, whilst the Japanese were reluctant to expand the conflict (and hence could not do the same).

A full scale Soviet-Japanese War in summer '41 would probably not look like Khalkhin Gol at all, especially if the Soviets commit to stopping the Japanese attacks on the border instead of going for a defense-in-depth.

The big problem for the Japanese, IIRC, is that they'll be running out of oil reserves in 6 months and foreign currency reserves within a year.


EDIT: I would suggest having Japan prevent any sort of shipping in the Sea of Okhotsk, and leaving it up to Stalin whether to invade or not (which he wouldn't), thus cutting off most of the Pacific Route LL. More details and reasoning here

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

The relevant wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kantokuen

 

[ExScientiaTridens]

Agree that "getting smacked" is probably in the cards for the IJA, but it does not appear that an "appreciation" of their limitations was a deciding factor in the debates.

Let's pretend that this time, the IJA concentrates their efforts on taking Vladivostok (executing the Kantokuen plan). The IJA did suggest a six-month delay in their "Southern Offensive" in order to initiate an offensive against the USSR. It seems the Japanese were quite confident Germany would win the war against the USSR during the summer of 1941, and the discussion concerning joining the fight centered around gaining territory before the Germans won. In that case, the desire to acquire Vladivostok might predominate their thinking (as opposed to a repeat of their 1939 failure).

So, what is the consequence of "getting smacked" (or not) both to the Soviets and the Japanese. Does Stalin counterattack? More Japanese forces committed to the grinder?

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

So, what is the consequence of "getting smacked" (or not) both to the Soviets and the Japanese. Does Stalin counterattack? More Japanese forces committed to the grinder?

I don't think the Soviets were strong enough to defeat the Japanese militarily. More likely they'd get rolled and then cornered in Vladivostok a la Singapore writ large. Under these circumstances the Soviets couldn't afford to commit reinforcements to the East (as highlighted in the article) and instead would wait for Germany's defeat/US intervention against Japan.

 

[GlobalHumanism]

So, what is the consequence of "getting smacked" (or not) both to the Soviets and the Japanese. Does Stalin counterattack? More Japanese forces committed to the grinder?

Let's say the Japanese score some suprise victories - they still run out if oil in 6 months. Factories come to a halt, the treasury becomes insolvent - the government collapses.
And now with their production capabilities crippled, the Far East forces of the Red Army start their counter attack.
@ObssesedNuker could speak more militarily on what would happen next.

 

[naraic]

Could Japan feint south and strike north?

What do you suppose the chances that Japan sending their fleet to FIC could butterfly Deverill and PQ 1, the first two artic convoys that contributed half the tanks and aircraft in front of Moscow at one point in 1941 as additional reinforcements are sent to the far east.

Then Japan strikes north.

 

[steamboy]

The problem is this;

"Sir we have captured Vladivostok!"
"Excellent, what about the oil?"
"Oil?"
"Yes, we need that so we can do anything."
"Well...um...there isn't any."
"Yes there is."
"Yes...if you have tech from the 80's to pull it out of the ground and even then its bloody hard work"
"Okay so we've not captured any oil?"
"Basically Sir, no."
"Well fuck."
"Yes that's what the industry minister was saying when I had a word with him 5 minutes ago, he was also drinking straight from the bottle and crying."

The Japanese NEED oil, there's not any or insufficient amounts in Siberia for their needs and whilst we know its there now, they don't have the capacity to get it out of the ground with the tech of the time. So the econimy still grinds to a halt.

 

[ExScientiaTridens]

Granted, no oil in Siberia.

The "proposed compromise" (during the summer of 1942) was a six-month delay in the "Southern Attack" (i.e., the attack on Singapore-DEI-Philippines is delayed until early 1942). Based on the timing of the September 6 Imperial Conference, say the plan is to launch Kantokuen and then follow with the "Southern Attack" in April-May 1942.

Does the potential for additional reinforcements in the Philippines or Singapore change the outcome?

Stalin now has fewer troops to ship west. How does this impact the war during 1942?

The Philippines get additional reinforcements, but do they receive enough reinforcements to change the outcome? The USN isn't in a significantly stronger position, and US entry into the war is delayed (which certainly doesn't help Britain). Would the 18th Division be transferred to Malaya, or be fed into the Middle-East? Do the troops in Malaya get better arms and training?

 

[Guaro]

The POD need to be in 1938, after the Nanking occupation, you need the governament maybe with the backing of the Imperator to be able to take back controll (at least a bit) on the army. Maybe denouncing some of the Generals for the Nanking massacre, removing those generals with the Emperor support, fearig the isolation of Japan and the USSR retaliation. At the same time to have a the government survive, they need to make concessions, alias North invasion. At this point no overstretched supply line in China, defensive line while holding the richest part of China, now you can simply focus on developing manchuko,especially the rail network, and instead of the Yamato class you can have decent army with decent motorization and way more artillery that IOTL. No Oil embargo (because no need to occupy indochina becouse the Chinese conflict is not escaleted) and no need to invade the DEI, maybe you can have the japanese investing in the mercantil marine. The biggest problem is, will the UK declare war on Japan as soon the Japanese invade the URSS? How will the USA retaliate? I still think that a Japanese attack on the URSS means that the LL,without the American in the war, is going to be lower than IOTL and i don't think the URSS can survive without the Vladivostok rute closed, 50% of total land lease and most of the non military stuff sent to the ussr, alias train , trucks, food( A LOT OF FOOD), telephone cable and so on was from there. If barbarossa goes as IOTL we have the Russian surrender in 1942 for famine and lack of logistical support.

 

[nbcman]

The POD need to be in 1938, after the Nanking occupation, you need the governament maybe with the backing of the Imperator to be able to take back controll (at least a bit) on the army. Maybe denouncing some of the Generals for the Nanking massacre, removing those generals with the Emperor support, fearig the isolation of Japan and the USSR retaliation. At the same time to have a the government survive, they need to make concessions, alias North invasion. At this point no overstretched supply line in China, defensive line while holding the richest part of China, now you can simply focus on developing manchuko,especially the rail network, and instead of the Yamato class you can have decent army with decent motorization and way more artillery that IOTL. No Oil embargo (because no need to occupy indochina becouse the Chinese conflict is not escaleted) and no need to invade the DEI, maybe you can have the japanese investing in the mercantil marine. The biggest problem is, will the UK declare war on Japan as soon the Japanese invade the URSS? How will the USA retaliate? I still think that a Japanese attack on the URSS means that the LL,without the American in the war, is going to be lower than IOTL and i don't think the URSS can survive without the Vladivostok rute closed, 50% of total land lease and most of the non military stuff sent to the ussr, alias train , trucks, food( A LOT OF FOOD), telephone cable and so on was from there. If barbarossa goes as IOTL we have the Russian surrender in 1942 for famine and lack of logistical support.

The UK was not be bound to declare war on Japan if Japan declared war on the Soviets any more than the Soviets were bound to declare war on Japan when they did declare war on the UK. The UK-Soviet agreements of 1941 and 1942 were aimed at Germany and Europe. For example, the 1942 treaty contained the following:

PART ONE
ARTICLE I
In virtue of the alliance established between the United Kingdom and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the high contracting parties mutually undertake to afford one another military and other assistance and support of all kinds in war against Germany and all those States which are associated with her in acts of aggression in Europe.

and the 1941 agreement in full reads as follows:

His Majesty’s Government and the United Kingdom and the government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics have concluded the present agreement and declared as follows:

1) The two governments mutually undertake to render each other assistance and support of all kind in the present war against Hitlerite Germany.

2) They further undertake that during this war they will neither negotiate nor conclude an armistice or treaty of peace except by mutual agreement. The contracting parties having agreed that this agreement enters into force as from the moment of signature and is not subject to ratification

There have been multiple threads which have discussed this topic. This is one of them that includes links to other discussions.

 

[Obergruppenführer Smith]

I'll keep this simple: As long as the war in China continues, Japan is never going to strike north.

 

[naraic]

I'll keep this simple: As long as the war in China continues, Japan is never going to strike north.

True actually. The southern expeditionary army group was a drop in the water of Japanese operations. Japan didn't have the manpower to fight both China and USSR.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

Let's say the Japanese score some suprise victories - they still run out if oil in 6 months. Factories come to a halt, the treasury becomes insolvent - the government collapses.
And now with their production capabilities crippled, the Far East forces of the Red Army start their counter attack.
@ObssesedNuker could speak more militarily on what would happen next.

The Japanese had enough reserves for roughly 2 years of all out warfare before they would start to run out, though of course any circumstances inviting a Japanese attack on the USSR would be mitigated by prompt economic punishment from the USA.

As to the Soviet forces, they'd be lucky to have anything left after a few months and didn't have the means for a major offensive anyway.

 

[Zheng He]

True actually. The southern expeditionary army group was a drop in the water of Japanese operations. Japan didn't have the manpower to fight both China and USSR.

Right, from the standpoint of the IJA, the southern attack was a shoestring operation. Invading Ceylon was a bridge too far for them in terms of troops and shipping. This is why we have so many TLs that involve relatively minor PODs on the part of the Allies gumming the works. There is no way the IJA takes on another major land war.

 

[thaddeus]

The Japanese had enough reserves for roughly 2 years of all out warfare before they would start to run out, though of course any circumstances inviting a Japanese attack on the USSR would be mitigated by prompt economic punishment from the USA.

how much oil were they able to gain from strike south vs. what was expended during operations? my understanding not a great amount? (net)

my question because there was modest amount of oil on Sakhalin and huge amount of coal, Japan could have taken rest of the island and closed off Vladivostok as Lend Lease route as halfway measures.

 

[BobTheBarbarian]

how much oil were they able to gain from strike south vs. what was expended during operations? my understanding not a great amount? (net)

Not much. The oil fields were mostly wrecked and the Japanese spent years getting them back up to speed, and even then they were never able to fulfill the demands expected of them. In my opinion the only way the Japanese could have been brought around to attack the USSR would have been either some sort of deal with the US to lift their economic embargoes or having the Germans convince them ahead of time that the campaign against Russia would be a quick one and that they shouldn't "miss the bus."

That last one was a particularly big missed opportunity for Hitler (he even admitted it himself later on), because when Matsuoka visited Berlin in March the Germans went to extreme lengths to conceal the impending invasion from him. Considering that even after being left in the dark about the whole thing the Japanese still seriously considered attacking, had Hitler taken the opposite route and attempted to dazzle them with the "grandeur" of his eastern scheme, he might have gotten them on board.

my question because there was modest amount of oil on Sakhalin and huge amount of coal, Japan could have taken rest of the island and closed off Vladivostok as Lend Lease route as halfway measures.

The Japanese goals in the USSR were more political than economic. They recognized that there were fewer natural resources in the North than in the South, with the primary incentives for invasion being the removal of communist influence in their backyard and (potentially) the collapse of the USSR. This is why their planning never considered anything short of total destruction of the Red Army in the Far East and complete occupation of that area.

 

[Rubicon]

1st.

I'll keep this simple: As long as the war in China continues, Japan is never going to strike north.

Quoted for truth.

2nd. All the issues that the Red Army had in the west such as including but not limited to badly trained personel, lack of signal equipment, lack of fuel and ammunition, inflexible command system, lack of spare parts, lack of motorised logistics, lack of personal command initiative (just for starters) were all prevelant among the Soviet Far East forces as well.

3rd. All supplies and reinforcements have to be brought up along a single railroad (though I think it's dual tracked at this point, not certain), which runs along the Soviet-Manchurian border.

4th. Any reinforcements have to be brought up from the west, or from forces that were later sent to the west.

5th. Force comparison.
Red army forces in the Far East includes: 16 rifle divisions, 1 mountain rifle division, 1 motorised rifle division, 3 tank divisions, 1 cavalry division and some assorted odds and ends. Slightly more then 3000 tanks, most of which are T-26, the rest an assorted mix of various BT-tanks and other light tanks, NO T-34's or KV-1's present at all.
The Soviet air force in the far east had about 600 bombers almost all of them SB bombers and about 1200 fighters, ~50% I-16, ~30% I-15, ~20 I-153 and some 75 recon planes of various designs.

If Japan isn't involved in China (a must) they can scrape together 28 Infantry divisions, 16 Independent brigades (about the same size as a Red Army Rifle Division), 2 tank brigades, 9 Mongolian Cavalry Divisions as well as assorted odds and ends, without pulling anything from the Southern Attack. If that is scrapped there's another 8 Infantry divisions, The Guards division, 2 Independant brigades and 1 tank brigade available as well as some 15 SNLF and a parachute regiment.
The IJAAF had in December -41 some 583 fighters, ~90% Ki-27 but both the Ki-43 had and the Ki-44 had begun production and was replacing the Ki-27. There were 396 Light single engine bombers, Ki-30, Ki-32, Ki-36 and Ki-51. As well as 330 Medium bombers Ki-21 and Ki-48 and some 167 recon planes, most of them Ki-15 but the Ki-46 was replacing it. There were also some 135 transport planes.

The IJNAF had som 160 ground based fighters, 45% A5M4, 55% A6M2. 32 D3A1 Dive bombers (but most of them in training squadrons). 336 dual engine long distance bombers, 55% G3M2, 45% G4M1. 23 C5M2 recon planes. 68 B5N1 Torpedoplanes but again most of them in training squadrons. 34 transport planes, 63 H6K4 multi-engine floatplanes and 150 single engine floatplanes. Aboard carriers and other ships the IJNAF had 43 A5M4, 117 A6M2, 135 D3A1, 178 B5N1/2 and 228 single engine floatplanes of various designs.

Quality wise there was a vast differance between the Soviet pilots and the Japanese pilots, even by IJAAF standards. Soviet pilots had much fewer flight hours and most of the Japanese pilots had experienced combat even if it was just against the chinese. The army comparision just by comparing division numbers isn't the whole story as Soviet units was at 50-75 % strength and the standard Japanese division was 120-150% larger then a Red Army division on paper.

Edit: Also forgot, the Red Army has to defend a 2800km long border.

 

[thaddeus]

how much oil were they able to gain from strike south vs. what was expended during operations? my understanding not a great amount? (net)

my question because there was modest amount of oil on Sakhalin and huge amount of coal, Japan could have taken rest of the island and closed off Vladivostok as Lend Lease route as halfway measures.

Not much. The oil fields were mostly wrecked and the Japanese spent years getting them back up to speed, and even then they were never able to fulfill the demands expected of them.

The Japanese goals in the USSR were more political than economic. They recognized that there were fewer natural resources in the North than in the South, with the primary incentives for invasion being the removal of communist influence in their backyard and (potentially) the collapse of the USSR. This is why their planning never considered anything short of total destruction of the Red Army in the Far East and complete occupation of that area.

my scenario is to provoke Soviets into attacking rather than try round two (three?) attacking them? an operation to seize rest of Sakhalin would be modest enough and likely successful.

not sure if Lend Lease was known to be of such importance at the time, IMO they should have at least cut the Pacific route OR sided with USSR, they should have known how bystander role was going to end for them.