WI: Japanese invasion of Manchuria leads to all-out war?

[LeX]

A pretty simple scenario: In 1931, let's say that for whatever reason the Manchurian warlord Zhang Xueliang decides to deploy his army against the Japanese Guandong (Kuantung) Army when they try to take over the region.

a) I can see Chiang Kai-shek sticking to his OTL strategy of looking to cure the country of communism before driving back the Japanese, but might events ITTL persuade him otherwise?

b) if Nanjing steps in to back Zhang Xueliang, would the Japanese military press on? Would the militarists be able to sideline the Japanese civil government the way they did IOTL, given the greater Chinese resistance TTL?

c) was Japan capable of supporting a major war in China? How badly would not having much of the political and economic progress of the Nanjing Decade and Sino-German cooperation cripple the Chinese effort? How would such a conflict, assuming the same rough goals as IOTL 1937, play out in 1931/32?

 

[BBadolato]

I don't know, if possible the Soviets could join in against Japan, the Soviets did have the Chinese Eastern Railway in Manchurian and did have a small Sino-Soviet War over it. A show of force may convince Tokyo to try and reign the Kwantung Army in, or could it lead to the possibility of a comeback of Democracy without the aggressive militarism able to win concessions?

 

[David T]

I don't know, if possible the Soviets could join in against Japan, the Soviets did have the Chinese Eastern Railway in Manchurian and did have a small Sino-Soviet War over it. A show of force may convince Tokyo to try and reign the Kwantung Army in, or could it lead to the possibility of a comeback of Democracy without the aggressive militarism able to win concessions?

"The Soviet Union was too weak to take action against Japan; and Stalin pursued a cautious line...Stalin's first comment on the Manchurian situation was made in a cipher of 23 September to Kaganovich and Molotov. According to Stalin, it was probable that Japanese intervention was being carried out 'by agreement with all or several of the great powers' and that 'several influential Chinese militarist groups' had agreed to it. He stressed that 'military intervention by us is *of course* [my emphasis--DT] ruled out, and diplomatic intervention is at present inexpedient because it might unite the imperialists.' However, 'we must behave in the press so that there is no doubt that we are heart and soul against the [Japanese] intervention.'" *The Stalin-Kaganovich Correspondence, 1931-36,* p. 41. https://books.google.com/books?id=x3s8o6KL-HkC&pg=PA41 Given Stalin's "of course" I don't think there was much chance of Soviet military intervention. It was one thing to fight Zhang Xueliang over the Chinese Eastern Railway in 1929, another to fight a major power like Japan...

 

[LeX]

That's a dimension I forgot about. With an expanded (or at least bloodier) war in China what would the international reaction look like?

 

[LeX]

bumping.

 

[Blackfox5]

Japan crushes Zhang Xueliang's army easily. It is simply not equal to the Japanese. No military intervention by anyone else. With the loss of his army, Zhang becomes a political non-entity. However, he is probably a popular figure, and Chiang's KMT is criticized even more for not helping Manchuria. Chiang weathers the storm.

Without Zhang having an army placed to combat the Communists, it is likely nothing like the Xi'an Incident never happens. It is possible that the CCP is either crushed in early 1937, or that Chiang allows a much weakened CCP to survive in the same way as other minor political parties were tolerated with them losing autonomy and their armed forces incorporated into the Chinese Army on a much different United Front.