WI: John Zapolya killed at the battle of Tarcal?

[Ultima Ratio]

So not long after the disaster at Mohacs, Ferdinand I and John Zapolya competed for the Hungarian throne. Ferdinand's forces took Buda and decisively defeated Zapolya in the Battle of Tarcal. Zapolya retreated and asked for Ottoman help, which culminated in the Siege of Vienna and Turkish control over Central Hungary.

But what if Zapolya died in the battle? Could Ferdinand solidify his rule over Hungary and avoid Ottoman occupation and the devastation that followed?

 

[Petike]

I figure this would be a fairly big divergence. Unless some of Zapolya's relatives could somehow pick up his effort and attempt to antagonise the Habsburgs for the throne, I don't think a lot of the events that Zapolya triggered would happen as in OTL. This brief period was something of a breaking point in the history of the Hungarian monarchy, especially as it entered the early modern period. Could Zapolya's son pick up the slack in the feud with Ferdinand ? Wasn't he too young at that point to make a difference if his father was killed ?

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I figure this would be a fairly big divergence. Unless some of Zapolya's relatives could somehow pick up his effort and attempt to antagonise the Habsburgs for the throne, I don't think a lot of the events that Zapolya triggered would happen as in OTL. This brief period was something of a breaking point in the history of the Hungarian monarchy, especially as it entered the early modern period. Could Zapolya's son pick up the slack in the feud with Ferdinand ? Wasn't he too young at that point to make a difference if his father was killed ?

Does he have an eligible successor even? My impression was that he had limited popularity in the first place, if he dies it might just melt away. Besides, Ferdinand has a very good claim.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

I'm also rather interested in the implications of an early Habsburg Hungary. Would the Turks still try to expand towards Vienna? A strong Hungary is ever a threat, but I read here in various threads that the Ottomans were not originally too interested in their conquest before Zapolya invited them. How would Hungary develop in this case?

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I'm also rather interested in the implications of an early Habsburg Hungary. Would the Turks still try to expand towards Vienna? A strong Hungary is ever a threat, but I read here in various threads that the Ottomans were not originally too interested in their conquest before Zapolya invited them. How would Hungary develop in this case?

The Ottomans will likely attack Habsburg Hungary but as a way to secure their frontiers. So... the Banate and Transylvania and parts of Croatia. Central Hungary remains Habsburg.

Hungary will likely remain firm Catholic. But the Hungary will likely remain a warzone in the Ottoman-Habsburg wars.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

The Ottomans will likely attack Habsburg Hungary but as a way to secure their frontiers. So... the Banate and Transylvania and parts of Croatia. Central Hungary remains Habsburg.

Hungary will likely remain firm Catholic. But the Hungary will likely remain a warzone in the Ottoman-Habsburg wars.

I assume raids would be as commonplace as they were before, but with a united Hungary, the main battlefield should remain further south, in Serbia, no? This could leave Hungary much better off than OTL.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

I assume raids would be as commonplace as they were before, but with a united Hungary, the main battlefield should remain further south, in Serbia, no? This could leave Hungary much better off than OTL.

Vojvodina and North of Slavonia I would say. After Mohacs, the Habsburgs avoided open battles with the Ottomans. I don't see them attacking the Ottomans in Belgrade. But the front would be near the border of Southern border of todays Hungary rather than Austria and Slovakia in OTL. That is unless Suleiman succeeds just enough. Because bigger success will make to move further into Hungary. Although this is up to speculations.

 

[isabella]

I figure this would be a fairly big divergence. Unless some of Zapolya's relatives could somehow pick up his effort and attempt to antagonise the Habsburgs for the throne, I don't think a lot of the events that Zapolya triggered would happen as in OTL. This brief period was something of a breaking point in the history of the Hungarian monarchy, especially as it entered the early modern period. Could Zapolya's son pick up the slack in the feud with Ferdinand ? Wasn't he too young at that point to make a difference if his father was killed ?

Does he have an eligible successor even? My impression was that he had limited popularity in the first place, if he dies it might just melt away. Besides, Ferdinand has a very good claim.

I think who Zapolya’s son was way too young (and Ferdinand can always marry Zapolya’s widow to his second son and namesake... sure she is ten years older than him but if it help in conquering Hungary, plus the girl is not a bad alliance in itself)

 

[Fehérvári]

I think who Zapolya’s son was way too young

So young, that he wasn't even born yet. Zapolya had no close relatives at the time, so that's a non-issue. I don't think any other magnate would try to get the throne themselves either, so Ferdinand's rule should be secure.

Maybe without the threat of Zápolya, Ferdinand could actually grab the initiative and go on the offensive before Suleiman could. A campaign to reclaim the lost forts in the South might sound a bit ambitious, but given the change in circumstances, it might not be that far fetched. Beating the Rumelian Bey and retaking Belgrade in the process could also be very useful. Let's say Belgrade, and the forts North to the Sava-Danube line are retaken by the end of 1528. Suleiman would come with his army next spring. Could Belgrade be reinforced sufficiently by that time to withstand a siege? Because if yes, then Ferdinand could aim for an armistice after that.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

So young, that he wasn't even born yet. Zapolya had no close relatives at the time, so that's a non-issue. I don't think any other magnate would try to get the throne themselves either, so Ferdinand's rule should be secure.

Maybe without the threat of Zápolya, Ferdinand could actually grab the initiative and go on the offensive before Suleiman could. A campaign to reclaim the lost forts in the South might sound a bit ambitious, but given the change in circumstances, it might not be that far fetched. Beating the Rumelian Bey and retaking Belgrade in the process could also be very useful. Let's say Belgrade, and the forts North to the Sava-Danube line are retaken by the end of 1528. Suleiman would come with his army next spring. Could Belgrade be reinforced sufficiently by that time to withstand a siege? Because if yes, then Ferdinand could aim for an armistice after that.

Hm, a second victory at Belgrade could give them enough peace-time to reinforce the fortresses in the South. This could hamper Ottoman incursions into Central Hungary, but doesn't it still leave Croatia and Slavonia vulnerable?

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Someone's peronal life would certainly improve. And that person is Isabella Jagiellon, who would not need to marry over 30 years older sick man, rulling as anti-King in unstable country.

 

[isabella]

Someone's peronal life would certainly improve. And that person is Isabella Jagiellon, who would not need to marry over 30 years older sick man, rulling as anti-King in unstable country.

Yes, Isabella would be happier but Bona much less...

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Yes, Isabella would be happier but Bona much less...

In the long run Bona would be happier too, not needing to watch misfortune of her daughter and grandson. Best option for Isabella would be some Italian duke. Isabella, who was raised among Italians, would feel almost like at home.

 

[isabella]

In the long run Bona would be happier too, not needing to watch misfortune of her daughter and grandson. Best option for Isabella would be some Italian duke. Isabella, who was raised among Italians, would feel almost like at home.

Oh, sure... But who?

 

[Gonzaga]

Oh, sure... But who?

I couldn't find any Italian ruler or heir that had a pedigree high enough for her that wasn't already married by the period of 1535-1540. However, Bona could have a second chance to marry Isabella to the Valois. Without Zapolya to distract Polish plans, the Dauphin Francis, duke of Brittany, is free (If she can be married to him before his death in 1536). Other option would be his younger brother Charles, Duke of Orleans.

 

[Fehérvári]

Hm, a second victory at Belgrade could give them enough peace-time to reinforce the fortresses in the South. This could hamper Ottoman incursions into Central Hungary, but doesn't it still leave Croatia and Slavonia vulnerable?

Although, IOTL the key fortress of Croatia and Slavonia, Jajca(Jajce) was taken by the Turks in late 1527, given, that ITTL the internal situation in Hungary stabilises by october, it is entirely possible for the Turks to fail capturing it. The local nobility wouldn't be split between Ferdinand and Janos's supporters and Ferdinand could send aid to the defenders as well. If Jajca still holds, then both Croatia and Slavonia are secure.

 

[isabella]

I couldn't find any Italian ruler or heir that had a pedigree high enough for her that wasn't already married by the period of 1535-1540. However, Bona could have a second chance to marry Isabella to the Valois. Without Zapolya to distract Polish plans, the Dauphin Francis, duke of Brittany, is free (If she can be married to him before his death in 1536). Other option would be his younger brother Charles, Duke of Orleans.

Dauphin Francis looks fine for Bona’s ambitions or Dauphin Henry if Catherine de’ Medici die early for some reason

 

[History Learner]

I'd imagine Hungary would have a significantly larger Magyar population without the Hapsburg-Ottoman Wars wrecking the place.

 

[Fehérvári]

I'd imagine Hungary would have a significantly larger Magyar population without the Hapsburg-Ottoman Wars wrecking the place.

And a significantly larger population in general.