WI: Moltke, the Austrian (TL brainstorming)

[Ultima Ratio]

While reading this thread, I had an idea and looked up the early life of Moltke the Elder. The wiki says:

Moltke was born in Parchim, Mecklenburg-Schwerin, son of the Danish Generalleutnant Friedrich Philipp Victor von Moltke (1768–1845). In 1805, his father settled in Holstein, but about the same time was left impoverished when the French burned his country house and plundered his town house in Lübeck, where his wife and children were during the Fourth Coalition. Young Moltke therefore grew up under difficult circumstances. At nine he was sent as a boarder to Hohenfelde in Holstein, and at age twelve went to the cadet school at Copenhagen, being destined for the Danish army and court. In 1818 he became a page to the king of Denmark and a second lieutenant in a Danish infantry regiment.

So what if instead of Holstein, the family settles somewhere in Austria, such as Graz? Now let's assume that he takes up soldiering as he did OTL, but in Austrian service, and rises through the ranks as he did.

How could an Austrian Moltke shape up the Habsburg military? Is he alone enough to make the necessary reform? Could the military reforms translate to general modernization of the archaic state and maybe influence larger scale political changes?

 

[Derek Pullem]

The von Moltke family had much closer links to Denmark than Austria. Even butterflying these away it is hard to see how an impoverished Prussian officer would gain influence to be appointed to an Austrian regiment. But let's just imagine that Freidrich von Moltke somehow marries well and into a well to do Austrian family.

So he sees the end of the Austrian armies campaigns against Napoleon (probably the last time they were a first rate power OTL) and gains a position in an Austrian regiment. Now you have to butterfly his historical desire to return to Prussia (he did leave Denmark despite his father's position). If you do this then his posting to Turkey is still possible (Prussian and Austrian officers were posted to the Ottoman Empire) and he's likely to play a prominent role in the 1848 troubles.

Where it gets interesting is if he rises at the same rate as in Prussia and is Chief of General Staff in the Italian War of 1859. If he prepared the Austrian army better it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Austria retains it dominant position in Northern Italy - and as a consequence Italy reunification is still born. Of course a protracted war might bring Prussia in against France which would be interesting.

A larger and more unsettled Hapsburg Empire post 1859 is hardly a good base on which to reform the army but if Austria is still the "big beast" in Central Europe it probably butterflys the 1866 war away and leaves Prussia as the leader of the North German Confederation only.

 

[Avrorrange]

The von Moltke family had much closer links to Denmark than Austria. Even butterflying these away it is hard to see how an impoverished Prussian officer would gain influence to be appointed to an Austrian regiment. But let's just imagine that Freidrich von Moltke somehow marries well and into a well to do Austrian family.

So he sees the end of the Austrian armies campaigns against Napoleon (probably the last time they were a first rate power OTL) and gains a position in an Austrian regiment. Now you have to butterfly his historical desire to return to Prussia (he did leave Denmark despite his father's position). If you do this then his posting to Turkey is still possible (Prussian and Austrian officers were posted to the Ottoman Empire) and he's likely to play a prominent role in the 1848 troubles.

Where it gets interesting is if he rises at the same rate as in Prussia and is Chief of General Staff in the Italian War of 1859. If he prepared the Austrian army better it is not beyond the realms of possibility that Austria retains it dominant position in Northern Italy - and as a consequence Italy reunification is still born. Of course a protracted war might bring Prussia in against France which would be interesting.

A larger and more unsettled Hapsburg Empire post 1859 is hardly a good base on which to reform the army but if Austria is still the "big beast" in Central Europe it probably butterflys the 1866 war away and leaves Prussia as the leader of the North German Confederation only.

Main problem is that he's got the wrong religion.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Main problem is that he's got the wrong religion.

Minor nitpick

Seriously - love might conquer all..........?

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Main problem is that he's got the wrong religion.

His father might convert if marrying an influental Catholic woman. Not outside of the realm of possibility, my great-grandfather apparently did it, and he lived in A-H, although he converted from Catholic to Reformed.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

The "problem" of the Austrian army of the late 50s and 60s was less one of incompetent leaders (a remedy that COULD have cured by Moltke the Elder) but one of lack of funds.

Austria maintained a 300k army during the Crimean war - a savings programm later led to the 1859 defeat and the loss of Lombardy (one of the richest provinces) then 1866 saw the demise of Venice... both did not help with the money problem ... then the Ausgleich did its own to hurt A-Hs military budget.

So the root of all evil is not man, but money...

 

[Ultima Ratio]

So the root of all evil is not man, but money...

But if Moltke helps keep Lombardia, this might mitigate the problems. He could also push for more funding later, as he becomes more influential.

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

The "problem" of the Austrian army of the late 50s and 60s was less one of incompetent leaders (a remedy that COULD have cured by Moltke the Elder) but one of lack of funds.

Austria maintained a 300k army during the Crimean war - a savings programm later led to the 1859 defeat and the loss of Lombardy (one of the richest provinces) then 1866 saw the demise of Venice... both did not help with the money problem ... then the Ausgleich did its own to hurt A-Hs military budget.

So the root of all evil is not man, but money...

totally disagree. Austria had an unfortunate string of over-cautious, when not outright incompetent leaders.
Also it is not true that Lombardy was one of the richest provinces: as one who has studied the question in detail i can tell you that Lombardy was (is) the richest province in Italy, but back then it lagged well begin other industrial regions in Europe and Austria itself.
I do agree that the augsleich was a mess for the army, but after 1866 Austria was already moribund.
Ps and I am a fanatical Austrian lover

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Ps and I am a fanatical Austrian lover

You seem to be just the kind of guy I need in this thread

The mind wanders: if for some reason the Ausgleich still happens even if Lombardy is retained, could Moltke come up with a better army structure?

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

You seem to be just the kind of guy I need in this thread

The mind wanders: if for some reason the Ausgleich still happens even if Lombardy is retained, could Moltke come up with a better army structure?

i will be very honest...I am convinced that if Austria does not win the 1866 war, they are screwed.1866is their last chance. If they get kicked out of Germany as In otl they find themselves in an untenable position. No augsleich would have meant the end of the empire, but augsleich itself only made thing worse and postponed the inevitable.
Austria need sto focus o Germany, and be smart enough to beat Prussia, weaken it by stripping her of silesia, rheinland and westphalia and create something very similar to otl German empire on their own. On the meanwhile they should create Hungary as a puppet in personal union (or under a cadet branch of the habsburgs),and maybe they can try to hold their Italian possessions afterwards.
Can moltke achieve that? On a military level sure, he needs to win against the prussians and may be against the French, both of which are separately feasible.
But in order to achieve that you need a change in the whole habsburgs planning. They should switch their attentions Italy and the Balkans to Germany, not just with the aim of maintaining status quo/ a loose federation, but aiming to create a true national state (plus bohemia, which was part of the HRE).
Of course to do this you need friends to cover your back...Russia makes for a perfect friend if you have something a to offer, and Austria had plenty to offer: a free hand in the balkans, polish Galicia (it was one of the poorest regions in the empire, and the people was totally uncollaborative...also armies from Galicia had by far the worst morale among all of the imperial ones); us they can offer Prussian territories in plains. All of this would grant the Russians all for Poland and a virtual hegemony over the balkans. That, combined with a properly reformed army should be enough to get rid of the bloody prussians and to deter France into doing anything too stupid

 

[Ultima Ratio]

They should switch their attentions Italy and the Balkans to Germany, not just with the aim of maintaining status quo/ a loose federation, but aiming to create a true national state (plus bohemia, which was part of the HRE).

I assume this would leave Prussia out of the new German Empire. Could they still remain a great power after losing the Rheinland, or would they became a second-rate power and possibly the British foothold on the continent? If the latter is the case, I assume there is no détente with Russia and the Great Game goes on.

How's this for an idea:

Other question is Alsace-Lorraine. Do the Austrians really need it to unite Germany? I would say not necessarily, but the French will likely oppose them regardless, given how much of a Behemoth this state would be. However, they can't really rely on the Russians this time around, but they have to gravitate towards Britain and Prussia (Ottomans as well, most probably).

I highly doubt WW1 would happen in this case, Austrian Germany plus her allies, plus Russia is just too big. What I want to get to is the possibility of Prussia eventually joining Germany. The only way I might see this is if a war breaks out over Russia trying to force the Dardanelles. They can do it, as they now have a free hand in the Balkans, and Britain would never let that happen. Such a crisis could see war break out, where France and Prussia join, along with possibly a rump Italy (well, provided Italy is a thing, but any Italian states would be gravitating towards Britain and France). Problem is, this would be almost entirely a continental war, as an Austrian Germany would have little naval and colonial ambitions. A French invasion of Germany is doomed, especially since the Germans can just sit and defend. Prussia is overrun in short order, the Austrian holdings in Italy might bulge due to revolts, but likely hold. Once Prussia falls, Germany and Russia march on Constantinople which could be a bloody affair, but nothing that can't be overrun by sheer manpower. The rest is sideshows in Central Asia (failed Russian attempts on going to India, then the same by British in reverse), possibly Persia, the Caucasus, and the Russian Far East where Japan might actually make some gains with British help. Overall, once Prussia is out and Constantinople is taken, France is gone, they might even peace out and just give them A-L. Now in this particular situation I could see Prussia joining the German Empire after the Hohenzollerns are dethroned. Russia takes Constantinople either directly or gives it to one of her puppets (Bulgaria, Greece?). The ideas of a unified Italy and a free Poland are gone for good, the Ottomans are likely broken up similar to the Sevres proposal OTL.

I might even make this a more proper TL if you think it's feasible.

 

[Richter von Manthofen]

But if Moltke helps keep Lombardia, this might mitigate the problems. He could also push for more funding later, as he becomes more influential.

Even the BEST general would not be able to keep Lombardy with inadequate troops, equipment and training.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Even the BEST general would not be able to keep Lombardy with inadequate troops, equipment and training.

But wasn't that Moltke strong point - training and equipment?

And he would not be facing any seriously good generals on the French side.

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

I assume this would leave Prussia out of the new German Empire. Could they still remain a great power after losing the Rheinland, or would they became a second-rate power and possibly the British foothold on the continent? If the latter is the case, I assume there is no détente with Russia and the Great Game goes on.

How's this for an idea:

Other question is Alsace-Lorraine. Do the Austrians really need it to unite Germany? I would say not necessarily, but the French will likely oppose them regardless, given how much of a Behemoth this state would be. However, they can't really rely on the Russians this time around, but they have to gravitate towards Britain and Prussia (Ottomans as well, most probably).

I highly doubt WW1 would happen in this case, Austrian Germany plus her allies, plus Russia is just too big. What I want to get to is the possibility of Prussia eventually joining Germany. The only way I might see this is if a war breaks out over Russia trying to force the Dardanelles. They can do it, as they now have a free hand in the Balkans, and Britain would never let that happen. Such a crisis could see war break out, where France and Prussia join, along with possibly a rump Italy (well, provided Italy is a thing, but any Italian states would be gravitating towards Britain and France). Problem is, this would be almost entirely a continental war, as an Austrian Germany would have little naval and colonial ambitions. A French invasion of Germany is doomed, especially since the Germans can just sit and defend. Prussia is overrun in short order, the Austrian holdings in Italy might bulge due to revolts, but likely hold. Once Prussia falls, Germany and Russia march on Constantinople which could be a bloody affair, but nothing that can't be overrun by sheer manpower. The rest is sideshows in Central Asia (failed Russian attempts on going to India, then the same by British in reverse), possibly Persia, the Caucasus, and the Russian Far East where Japan might actually make some gains with British help. Overall, once Prussia is out and Constantinople is taken, France is gone, they might even peace out and just give them A-L. Now in this particular situation I could see Prussia joining the German Empire after the Hohenzollerns are dethroned. Russia takes Constantinople either directly or gives it to one of her puppets (Bulgaria, Greece?). The ideas of a unified Italy and a free Poland are gone for good, the Ottomans are likely broken up similar to the Sevres proposal OTL.

I might even make this a more proper TL if you think it's feasible.

to answer your questions in good order:
1) without rheinland and silesia (and with it's establishment discredited) Prussia would probably be on par with Romania...definitely a second tier power
2) I do not think you need to go so far to include Prussia in the Austrian Germany. Otl Austria remained aside because they still had a large empire of their own, but TTL Prussia as an Independent state would be a tint rump pressed in the middle of two gigantic empires ad with obvious trade partners (and Prussian ports may be easily blockaded at that point). So, considering how strong nationalist session would be to join an existing German empire encompassing all of the other Germans, I think Prussia would join voluntarily, maybe with a status similar to that of otl Bavaria (slightly larger autonomy than other states).
3) no, Alsace-Lorraine is in now way necessary for German unification. Anyway otl it is not that Prussia invaded France in order to grab A-L. Prussia invaded France (or to say better made france attack them)because France would have never allowed unified German state to exist. So france had to be beaten. A-L was just Prussia getting super-happy for their recent triumph and making an unnecessary overkill.
ITTL you mat evade a war with france, provided Russia is your best friend and backs you up enough to deter the French. They said, in Hindsight, you better leave A-L to France in anyway. The moment that Germany is born, france is doomed as an hegemonic power on the continent; it has been so even in OTL, despite Germany losing two world wars and shrinking in size. The economical power of Germany is something that france can simply not match on the ground of demographical reasons.
But...being on amicable terms with France and in alliance with Russia is the basis to overrun the true obstacle for Germany to become a world class superpower...and that obstacle is England. The true enemy for Germany since it's concept up k has always been Britain. France and Russia were just sideshow, as is proven by the fact that Russia was soundly beaten during WW1 and france would have been without massive English help

 

[Ultima Ratio]

to answer your questions in good order:
1) without rheinland and silesia (and with it's establishment discredited) Prussia would probably be on par with Romania...definitely a second tier power
2) I do not think you need to go so far to include Prussia in the Austrian Germany. Otl Austria remained aside because they still had a large empire of their own, but TTL Prussia as an Independent state would be a tint rump pressed in the middle of two gigantic empires ad with obvious trade partners (and Prussian ports may be easily blockaded at that point). So, considering how strong nationalist session would be to join an existing German empire encompassing all of the other Germans, I think Prussia would join voluntarily, maybe with a status similar to that of otl Bavaria (slightly larger autonomy than other states).
3) no, Alsace-Lorraine is in now way necessary for German unification. Anyway otl it is not that Prussia invaded France in order to grab A-L. Prussia invaded France (or to say better made france attack them)because France would have never allowed unified German state to exist. So france had to be beaten. A-L was just Prussia getting super-happy for their recent triumph and making an unnecessary overkill.
ITTL you mat evade a war with france, provided Russia is your best friend and backs you up enough to deter the French. They said, in Hindsight, you better leave A-L to France in anyway. The moment that Germany is born, france is doomed as an hegemonic power on the continent; it has been so even in OTL, despite Germany losing two world wars and shrinking in size. The economical power of Germany is something that france can simply not match on the ground of demographical reasons.
But...being on amicable terms with France and in alliance with Russia is the basis to overrun the true obstacle for Germany to become a world class superpower...and that obstacle is England. The true enemy for Germany since it's concept up k has always been Britain. France and Russia were just sideshow, as is proven by the fact that Russia was soundly beaten during WW1 and france would have been without massive English help

So this means that a great continental war might be avoided?

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

So this means that a great continental war might be avoided?

Yes...or you may have a franco-british war after fashoda...remember that UK and France only formalized their alliance in 1904. Anyway UK here would have two enemies: Russia, as long as they threaten India and the dardanelles, and Germany, as an economical powerhouse which threaten British economical hegemony.
Btw you may still your war pitting UK and France against Germany and Russia over the dardanelles if you want to, but germs participation would be unenthusiastic as they have nothing to gain, and would join just in order not to piss off the russians

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Yes...or you may have a franco-british war after fashoda...remember that UK and France only formalized their alliance in 1904. Anyway UK here would have two enemies: Russia, as long as they threaten India and the dardanelles, and Germany, as an economical powerhouse which threaten British economical hegemony.
Btw you may still your war pitting UK and France against Germany and Russia over the dardanelles if you want to, but germs participation would be unenthusiastic as they have nothing to gain, and would join just in order not to piss off the russians

With the scenario you outlined above, I don't see it happening anymore. If Prussia is so weak, noone can really assist France on the continent, as Italy is also out. In fact, if French revanchism is avoided (no German AL), then I might even see an economic cooperation by, say, the 1930s. France will not be able to keep up, and they may accept that they are no longer the top power on the continent. Instead, they could focus on the colonies in Africa. Such a huge empire might be enough for the public to still bask in the gloire. I mean, France was left behind enocomically by Germany OTL after WW2, and they just accepted it. I know, different situation, but still.

What I'm not so sure about:
- Would Austro-Germany keep Venetia or would they let them go as they do with Hungary? They do need an exit to the Adriatic that they directly control. They can of course keep Görz and Triest and develop it to a proper port.
- Fate of Lombardia?
- Would Austro-Germany be inclined to start a naval race with Britain? Austrians might not be so keen on having a place under the Sun

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

With the scenario you outlined above, I don't see it happening anymore. If Prussia is so weak, noone can really assist France on the continent, as Italy is also out. In fact, if French revanchism is avoided (no German AL), then I might even see an economic cooperation by, say, the 1930s. France will not be able to keep up, and they may accept that they are no longer the top power on the continent. Instead, they could focus on the colonies in Africa. Such a huge empire might be enough for the public to still bask in the gloire. I mean, France was left behind enocomically by Germany OTL after WW2, and they just accepted it. I know, different situation, but still.

What I'm not so sure about:
- Would Austro-Germany keep Venetia or would they let them go as they do with Hungary? They do need an exit to the Adriatic that they directly control. They can of course keep Görz and Triest and develop it to a proper port.
- Fate of Lombardia?
- Would Austro-Germany be inclined to start a naval race with Britain? Austrians might not be so keen on having a place under the Sun

to answer your questions:
A)Austrian Germany may try to hold on to Venice...engaging in a north Italian campaign would be nice after all,and now they have the resources to do it...anyway considering German nationalism, they may pursue different approaches:
-they could create a Venetian puppet and try to bolster it.
-they may settle with France...after 1861 france started to regret supporting Piedmont so much, as they had not liked the idea of a new Italian power emerging at their border (their original idea was that of a north Italian kingdom acting as a buffer against Austria), so they may settle on a strictly neutral Italy à la Switzerland.
- they may try to push for an habsburg Italy...that it is truly nice, but would work like a charm during the early post-napoleon age,not so much after the Italian wars of indipendence, and especially after losing Lombardy (also liberalism had grown too strong in northern Italy for them to accept habsburg rule by 1866 or so).
-another solutuon would be for them to arrange something with france: for example they might use some real or invented aggression by Italy to Rome to jointly declare war on Italy, (france nearly did it for real...see battle of aspromonte) splitting it apart and recreating the kingdom of two sicilies; the Savoia would be removed and replaced with someone else on the paybook of the French who would rule over northern Italy from say, milan; in.the south the austrans could place an habsburg:by 1870 indipendentism was still strong in the south, and the southerners were used to being ruled by the habsburgs (Ferdinand the IV was married to an habsburg after all).
As a southern Italian from Naples (and with a long personal story of indipendestist, royalist militancy myself),I can tell you that royalist movements here in southern Italy are still somewhat affectioned to the habsurgs nowadays.
B) Lombardy was lost after 1959. To regain it the Austrian/Germans would have to seer and make enemies with france..not a good idea, all in all.
C)me too, I do not see Austrian Germany engage in a a naval arms race against UK...after all as they say "bella gerant alii, tu felix Austria, nube".
Btw the Habsburgs world undertasnd the need to have a powerful navy in ordrr to defend their interests, and I am sure a balance can be found

 

[Deleted member 92195]

My studies have found that the issue of Austrian incompetence is intractable in that its all about the Emperor and the unwillingness to reform which is seeped into the state. Klemens von Metternich had the best chance to reform but it did not come about.

1790: Joseph II (enlightened absolutism)
1790-1792: Leopold II (enlightened absolutism)
1790-1835: Francis II (enlightened absolutism)
1835-1848: Ferdinand I (enlightened absolutism)
1848-1916: Franz Joseph I (enlightened absolutism)
Crown Prince Rudolf (Liberal)

However, if Franz Joseph is assassinated in 1853 Maximilian (Liberal) would come to power but I doubt he would be offered the crown of Mexico. It would be awesome though become Emperor of Austria and then be offered an Imperial crown. This is the best chance Austria would get to a colonial empire. Plus there is still a chance to create a Greater German empire. Talk about power galore, to much power for anyone.

 

[Ludwig von Stieglitz]

My studies have found that the issue of Austrian incompetence is intractable in that its all about the Emperor and the unwillingness to reform which is seeped into the state. Klemens von Metternich had the best chance to reform but it did not come about.

1790: Joseph II (enlightened absolutism)
1790-1792: Leopold II (enlightened absolutism)
1790-1835: Francis II (enlightened absolutism)
1835-1848: Ferdinand I (enlightened absolutism)
1848-1916: Franz Joseph I (enlightened absolutism)
Crown Prince Rudolf (Liberal)

However, if Franz Joseph is assassinated in 1853 Maximilian (Liberal) would come to power but I doubt he would be offered the crown of Mexico. It would be awesome though become Emperor of Austria and then be offered an Imperial crown. This is the best chance Austria would get to a colonial empire. Plus there is still a chance to create a Greater German empire. Talk about power galore, to much power for anyone.

well that's what alternate history is all about