WI: No European colonization of India?

The British colonization and occupation of India is taken as a given in many TLs. Many other timelines show India divided by European nations.

But in truth, India had many powerful, rich nations with cultural roots stretching thousands of years. It was a snowballing series of events that allowed the British to control India so easily, and even then, they were met with much resisitance. I would go as far as say that it would seem as unlikely as a single European nation controlling China. Yet, due to many causes, it happened.

But what would have happened if the Indian nations remained independent? What if the European trading companies, especially the British, did not manage to establish a foothold, or at least not the colonial control that we saw OTL? What would have been the (no doubt worldwide) economic, political and cultural effects? For the sake of practicity let's start with the British not being able to conquer Bengal in the late 18th century. But I welcome other PODs and comments.

Alternatively, what would have happened if the British colonies have achieved independence earlier, like in the Sepoy Rebellion?
 
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For absolutely no european colonial penetration to happen in India is unrealistic, considering the vested interest such europeans had in the indian resources, products, and market.
Still, we can prevent european colonization beyond leased ports even with a PoD after the Seven Years' War, which meets your criteria. For example, a Maratha victory at the Third Battle of Panipat could lead to a stronger-positioned Maratha army at the time of the First Anglo-Maratha War, which possibly means that OTL's Maratha military plans to invade Bengal and stir up rebellion against the british there are put to effect.
 
For absolutely no european colonial penetration to happen in India is unrealistic, considering the vested interest such europeans had in the indian resources, products, and market.
Still, we can prevent european colonization beyond leased ports even with a PoD after the Seven Years' War, which meets your criteria. For example, a Maratha victory at the Third Battle of Panipat could lead to a stronger-positioned Maratha army at the time of the First Anglo-Maratha War, which possibly means that OTL's Maratha military plans to invade Bengal and stir up rebellion against the british there are put to effect.

A win at Panipat or another PoD which prevents a loss (Abdali dying frex) would mean that the EIC wouldn't even get the chance to acquire the Diwani no? The OTL Battle of Buxar would be fought with the Maratha invading instead of just Awadh, the Mughals, and Mir Qasim. I simply cannot see how the EIC of the time could possibly win that fight. The Maratha are simply far too huge and powerful and they also have the European-trained Ibrahim Khan Gardi in charge of the artillery.

Where did you read that the Maratha planned to invade Bengal during the first Anglo-Maratha war?

EDIT: In regards to the OP, the specifics would vary depending on the PoD but in general, we would see the process of state-strengthening continue and develop instead of being strangled/dismantled. I would highly recommend reading this extremely interesting dissertation Ancient Polities, Modern States which shows how areas of India which had developing states fair better than areas which didn't even more than a century after the states themselves were destroyed or absorbed by colonial rule. The key factor in state health is state capacity.

There is a huge amount of scholarly work on the immense degradation and stagnation colonialism causes. From the dissertation itself:

The general view, represented by scholars as diverse as Wallerstein (1974, 1982), Acemoglu et al. (2002), Lange et al. (2006), Mahoney (2010), Kohli (2004) and Mamdani (1996), is that European colonial rule left the developing countries of Africa, the Americas, and Southeast Asia with illegitimate institutions, predatory elites, and an inability to enforce the state’s monopoly of coercion beyond a narrow metropolitan base, and that, by extension, these institutions have persisted despite changes in the formal regime.

Wallerstein (1974) and world-systems theorists, for example, have argued that colonial regimes were designed to serve as providers of natural resources to countries at the core of the world economy, leading to their narrow economic specialization, absence of governing legitimacy, narrow tax base due to the underinvestment in public goods, and dependency upon governing and administrative resources provided by western companies, governments, and multilateral agencies (Wallerstein 1980, 2004).

As a result, post-colonial elites faced few incentives to invest in state capacity, instead relying upon the administrative, military, and technical support of western governments and organizations in order to manage their economies, face security challenges, and suppress the threat of domestic revolt (Verschave 1998). A similar line of argument has been pursued by Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2002), who maintain that areas ruled but not settled by Europeans were subject to “institutional reversal” as European powers established predatory regimes to exploit labor and natural resources. Because these colonial regimes sought only to extract and faced few external threats, they did not invest in building the fiscal and regulatory capacity required to provide universal rule of law, deliver public goods, or engage in interstate warfare.

The deep path dependencies created by such patterns of institutional development cannot easily be corrected; though post-colonial states could be forced to reduce their dependency on western support, or aid could be made conditional upon the implementation of specific policy and institutional reforms (Easterly 2001, 2006; Burnside and Dollar 2000).

The foregoing discussion has touched upon one of the more longstanding hypotheses for the weakness of postcolonial states, namely that western colonial rule undermined the development of state capacity (Amin 1972; Rodney 1972). This literature has suggested a wide variety of mechanisms, ranging from the deliberate policies of colonial rulers, to the disruption to indigenous institutions, to the accidental attributes of post-colonial states such as ethnic heterogeneity or territorial dispersion. Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2002) maintain that areas ruled but not settled by Europeans were subject to “institutional reversal” as European powers established predatory regimes to exploit labor and natural resources and Engerman and Sokoloff (2002) argue the same with respect to the laborrich areas of meso-america, such as Mexico, Peru, and Bolivia. This hypothesis is also supported in the findings of Melissa Dell (2010) regarding the mita in Bolivia and Peru. Though the labor and resource-extractive nature of colonial regimes may have entailed establishing a minimal layer of state capacity, it also meant that legal institutions were not extended beyond the colonial elite, and the failure of colonial institutions to establish legitimacy beyond this circle resulted in pervasive non-compliance, resistance, and insurgency outside of the metropole (Herbst 2002). James Mahoney (2010) similarly argues that in the former Aztec and Inca domains of Mexico, Bolivia and Peru, colonial authorities engaged in mercantilist restrictions of trade, ownership and economic participation, resulting in an entrenched patrimonial elite unable to extend rule of law or secure the legitimacy among the wider population.

Another argument against the colonial state comes from Lange (2009), who, following Mamdani (1996) argues that the reliance by colonial regimes upon strategies of indirect rule left local power brokers entrenched, and that this resulted in fragmented postcolonial regimes dependent upon distributing patronage to local stakeholders, unable to enforce regulatory compliance, taxation or administrative control in many areas of their territory. According to Lange, direct rule entailed the creation of bureaucratic states with extensive territorial reach, while indirect rule relied upon local intermediaries and led to patrimonial states. However, other authors have also sought to question the benefits of direct rule, in particular in former French colonies; Kwon (2011) contends that in Cambodia and Laos colonial state institutions had adverse effects on post-colonial state formation, while La Porta et al (1998) argue that French directly-ruled areas of Africa were left with less legitimate and effective institutions than indirectly-ruled British Africa; a theory tested by and Lee and Schultz (2011), who show higher public goods provision on the formerly British than the French side of the border in Cameroon. Likewise in the context of colonial India, where both direct and indirect patterns of governance prevailed, Iyer (2010) argues that areas under direct rule fared significantly worse during the post-colonial era than those in which indigenous institutions were preserved through the princely states, a hypothesis tested by identifying princely states that narrowly fell to direct rule following a lapse in royal succession.

Finally, a wide number of authors suggest that colonisation left unviable states, as colonial borders were drawn around vast territories following arbitrary fiat, without respect to prevailing ethnic boundaries or considerations of geographic governability. As a result, post-colonial states were shared among large numbers of ethnic groups, increasing the cost of collection action and requiring greater patronage in order to maintain governing coalitions (Alesina et al. 2004). In addition, the territorial span of the post-colonial state, above all in Africa, made the challenge of securing cooperation and administrative control over these groups even more difficult (Herbst 2002). Colonial regimes also deliberately exacerbated ethnic tensions: by relying on strategies of ‘divide and rule’ in order to create ‘favored’ ethnic groups, as in Rwanda (Mamdani 2002), or in India following the uprisings of 1857 (Varshney 2003), rulers made it more difficult to secure collective action from ethnic and sectarian minorities in the post-colonial era, requiring instead the distribution of rents (Keefer and Khemani 2004).

These varying arguments for the weakness of the post-colonial state can be summarized into three main categories, the limitation of scope, the displacement of indigenous state capacity, and the creation of unviable states.

i) The limitation of scope. Colonial regimes sought only to extract resources and tax, rather than provide public goods, fight wars, or implement a wide-ranging platform of societal transformation and behavioral regulation, in the fashion of post-revolutionary regimes. The colonial state was therefore a ‘thin’ state by design; a “gate- keeper” state based on the coast, with interest only in ruling and extracting natural resources rather than institutionbuilding (Cooper 2002). Colonial regimes did not establish, or seek to establish, the state’s presence outside of the administrative capital or those areas which contained valuable resources. Nor did colonial regimes generally invest in building tax infrastructure, such as registration of income or cadastres of land, opting instead for ’easier’ sources of revenue such as tariffs on trade or the use of commodity marketing boards (Bates 1981). Postcolonial regimes were left without ready sources of revenue, and without any means of accomplishing the ambitious transformative schemes of post-colonial leaders other than by resorting to the same distortionary apparatus and the recourse of international debt markets

ii) The displacement of indigenous capacity. Colonial regimes relied for their functioning on a cadre of administrative officers provided by the colonial core state. Therefore, on independence many post-colonial regimes found themselves facing a severe shortage of capable bureaucrats. This lack of administrative capacity has been reinforced by the tendency for post-colonial states to rely on their former colonial rulers and international donors and multilateral agencies for technical support, military defense, finances and soft loans, and in some cases, active suppression of threats to the ruling regime. The ready availability of soft loans and aid has hindered the responsibility to develop extractive fiscal capacity, while the availability of external technical support has inhibited the development of parallel bureaucratic capacities domestically (Easterly 2001, 2006).

iii) The creation of “unviable” states. Whereas European states formed endogenously to the conditions of state viability, i.e. geographic defensibility, ethnic cohesion, and access to resources, colonial regimes were formed arbitrarily by European powers with limited respect for existing ethnic boundaries or natural geographic conditions of governability. As a result, colonial regimes unintentionally left behind unviable states, either because ethnic fractionalization led to weak collective identities and clientelism (Alesina et al. 2004, Keefer and Khemani 2004), or because geographic conditions were unfavorable to territorial consolidation (Herbst 2000, Fearon and Laitin 2003).

The dissertation itself argues against this but not to really deny that these things happened. Rather, it places focus on arguing for the paramount role of pre-colonial state institutions in determining how colonial rule affected them and for why certain post-colonial states are more effective and prosperous than others. We can't treat the start of colonialism as "year 0" when colonialism itself was heavily dependant on what kind of pre-colonial state institutions there were. I don't necessarily agree with all the arguments the dissertation makes but it's quite interesting.

Tying into this, we can see how even in OTL, places like Mysore, the Sikh empire, and the Marathas provide examples of states developing their state capacity and developing before the advent of colonialism. The Sikhs and Mysore for example, were continually increasing their fiscal capacity. I read a scholarly paper-I'll try to find it-which showed that every year of the Sikh Empires existence, the total annual revenue increased dramatically. The Sikh Empire in 1839 had achieved a huge annual income. Similarly, Mysore was engaged in a sustained process of removing intermediaries between the state and peasant cultivators that bore fruit in increasing revenue more and more. The Maratha "army of Hindustan" under Scindia showed signs of proto-national solidarity in contrast to the loose loyalties of traditional Indian warrior groups. And so on.

Adding onto this, here are two scholarly papers which examine the role of colonialism in land tenure. They also reinforce the idea that the policies of the colonial state depended on pre-colonial institutions. The second builds off of the first:

History, Institutions, and Economic Performance: The Legacy of Colonial Land Tenure Systems in India

Land, State Capacity and Colonialism: Evidence from India

@Thanksforallthefish in case you didn't see the Edit.
 
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@123456789blaaa
Forgive me, for i only heard of such invasion plans in a discussion on this site about the First Anglo-Maratha War. :(
Still, considering the course of the OTL war and TTL's added condition that the Marathas are stronger, it is safe to suppose that they would fight battles against the british on bengali soil.
 

Maoistic

Banned
India would be much better today, and probably the world at large seeing how India as a colony helped speed up the British naval war machinery that allowed it to keep its informal empire in Latin America and colonise much of Africa.
 
India would be much better today, and probably the world at large seeing how India as a colony helped speed up the British naval war machinery that allowed it to keep its informal empire in Latin America and colonise much of Africa.

Not really. Britain's navy won supremacy at Trafalgar, which was done with their European fleet. The EIC had their own fleet which wasn't involved.

I'm actually of the opinion that, once you factor in the corruption at Westminster and the constant bailouts of the EIC, India was not really much of a gain for Britain. Even the small amount (in GDP terms) of capital that got repatriated would have been depreciated away within a couple of decades.

Of course, it had very negative effects on India, especially Bengal.
 
For the sake of practicity let's start with the British not being able to conquer Bengal in the late 17th century.

Late eighteenth century. In the late seventeenth century, Bengal was by far the richest part of India (with it encompassing half of India's GDP) and firmly a part of the Mughal Empire.

With this POD, I think you would see French and/or British influence in South India depending on the exact POD, but it may very well be possible that there are more states like Hyderabad and Travancore which are extremely independent from the British Empire - Mysore had a similar arrangement under the French that Hyderabad had under the British, for instance. To keep the Europeans outside India entirely requires an earlier POD. To keep European influence at small wholly-held colonies like Goa and small influenced states like those in Kerala in the seventeenth century, you probably need to avoid the destabilization India felt in this era, with the rapid expansion and collapse of the Mughal Empire, and the rapid expansion and collapse of the Maratha Empire.

Britain's navy won supremacy at Trafalgar

I disagree. Britain's navy held superiority well before Trafalgar. Even during the American Revolution, it had by far the largest navy.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I disagree. Britain's navy held superiority well before Trafalgar. Even during the American Revolution, it had by far the largest navy.

Supremacy is above superiority. The British had superiority before Trafalgar. They had supremacy after it.
 
Not really. Britain's navy won supremacy at Trafalgar, which was done with their European fleet. The EIC had their own fleet which wasn't involved.

If that fleet didn't exist, then the fleet at Trafalgar is smaller, or Britain is losing ground around the world during the wars with France.
 
India would probably become a competitor to influence the Middle East and Africa as it grew stronger and perhaps its influence on China would change things. The devil is in the details in regards to which regions, but it all depends. When the Mughals fall, perhaps the Marathas may rise up and start unifying most of India. Maybe the Sikh confederacy goes after Durrani with their assistance?
 
When the Mughals fall, perhaps the Marathas may rise up and start unifying most of India. Maybe the Sikh confederacy goes after Durrani with their assistance?

Very likely if the Marathas win Panipat, though after a time, the Sikhs even divided won’t need Maratha support - at this time they even crossed the Yamuna took Delhi for a brief time.
 
Very likely if the Marathas win Panipat, though after a time, the Sikhs even divided won’t need Maratha support - at this time they even crossed the Yamuna took Delhi for a brief time.

So while the Martahas take most of India, the Bengal probably move out further east (unless they're taken by the Maratha) and the Sikh Empire would probably head west and annex the Durrani and Sikhism may spread up north throughout Central Asia.
 
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