WI: RFK sent to negotiate Vietnam peace treaty in 1967

[Fleetlord]

From an article on Political Wire this morning, about Ted Kennedy's memoirs:

"Kennedy tells of a secret meeting in the spring of 1967 between President Lyndon B. Johnson and Robert Kennedy, whose increasingly outspoken criticism of the war in Southeast Asia was becoming a political threat to Mr. Johnson. According to the book, Robert Kennedy proposed that Mr. Johnson gave him authority to personally negotiate a peace treaty in Vietnam. This, implicitly, would have kept Mr. Kennedy out of the 1968 race for the Democratic nomination, a prospect that Mr. Johnson had come to worry greatly about."

Assuming such a meeting happened as described, could LBJ have plausibly accepted the offer? If he had, could Kennedy have had any success with negotiations?

This may have huge impacts on politics -- not only does RFK probably live past 1968 (although whether he has a political future depends on the success of negotiations, a pretty risky gamble), but could the absence of an RFK candidacy and assassination mean that Humphrey has an uneventful convention? (There's still Gene McCarthy, OTOH ... how much better does he do w/o Kennedy?) Would a quiet convention be enough win Humphrey the election in this TL?

 

[RogueBeaver]

This is the famous Newsweek meeting of January 1967. What happened is this in the Oval Office: FYI, this was the crossing of the Rubicon in their war, that led to LBJ surrendering the party leadership at their last meeting in April 1968.

1) LBJ accuses him of leeking Newsweek peace feeler article.
2) RFK denies it.
3) Discuss war, LBJ says it'll be over by summer
4) "I'll destroy you and every single one of your dove friends."
5) "By calling for peace... you have blood on your hands."- basically calling him a traitor.
6) "I don't have to take that (f-kin) shit from you"
7) Storms out
8) LBJ asks Katzenbach and Rostow to verify source
9) RFK holds improptu presser
10) Newsweek says RFK called LBJ an SOB* to his face.

*Untrue, and missing the point.

 

[RogueBeaver]

HHH will easily win the nomination, and LBJ might decide to hang in, since RFK's entry was the final straw according to his memoir Vantage Point. Nixon will win the general election, possibly carrying even more Southern states than OTL, and quite likely we see a two-term POTUS RFK starting from 1977-1985. If Nixon survives, a squeaker against Connally if he picks a Southern running mate (Sanford, Hollings). If not, an easy win against Ford or Nixon's ATL Veep. 1980 should also be OK. See my TLs "RFK Renewed" or "Resurrection City" for a RFK Presidency.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

HHH will easily win the nomination, and LBJ might decide to hang in, since RFK's entry was the final straw according to his memoir Vantage Point. Nixon will win the general election, possibly carrying even more Southern states than OTL, and quite likely we see a two-term POTUS RFK starting from 1977-1985. If Nixon survives, a squeaker against Connally if he picks a Southern running mate (Sanford, Hollings). If not, an easy win against Ford or Nixon's ATL Veep. 1980 should also be OK. See my TLs "RFK Renewed" or "Resurrection City" for a RFK Presidency.

I think you're missing a big point here. Without Vietnam scarring him (or at least taking a break for a few years since the North will likely break a peace, but, who knows) Johnson can and likely will run again, and likely successfully too, I'd say. Nixon can't wave around "Vietnamization" or fixing up the scars of the nation if there's no Vietnam anymore (or for a few years after this election) and LBJ already begins to heal the nation. Then again, this assumes negotiations are successful.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Johnson allowing RFK to save his Presidency? That's as likely as Obama switching parties. He'd be fatally politically weakened so as to be forced to take Kennedy as Veep, which RFK would probably refuse as in 1964 IOTL. "I'd sooner quit! (and give RFK the Presidency) I don't want it this much!"- LBJ to O'Donnell, 1964. "The greatest title history can bestow is the title of peacemaker." IIC, RFK wasn't exactly the archetypal Foggy Bottom diplomat.

 

[Fleetlord]

I think you're missing a big point here. Without Vietnam scarring him (or at least taking a break for a few years since the North will likely break a peace, but, who knows) Johnson can and likely will run again, and likely successfully too, I'd say. Nixon can't wave around "Vietnamization" or fixing up the scars of the nation if there's no Vietnam anymore (or for a few years after this election) and LBJ already begins to heal the nation. Then again, this assumes negotiations are successful.

Hmm, I assumed that it would, at best, take some time for negotiations to go anywhere, even with Kennedy. (Wouldn't this make Nixon's people even more motivated to throw a monkey wrench into the process?)

 

[RogueBeaver]

See what I wrote above. RFK is not a diplomat (though an excellent crisis manager), and LBJ might as well resign, because he'll lose all political leverage if his nemesis saves his ass, then refuses the Veepship. If he survives, he becomes POTUS later. Nixon can still win in '68. Not a slam-dunk as per OTL post June 6, but an advantage for sure.

 

[RogueBeaver]

How the leak came about is disputed. What we do know is that Kennedy, on a European tour to escape the Manchester mess (another story altogether) met with Wilson, de Gaulle and a Quai d'Orsay mandarin named Etienne Manach. Since RFK, as we know, didn't speak French, there were some linguistic issues and a Newsweek reporter who, following his fellow journos, wanted to ignite another round in the RFK-LBJ war. Then the meeting. After that, we get into ATL. As to Nixon, he planned for RFK as his opponent very early on. Long before RFK, if Kennedy in fact did.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Johnson allowing RFK to save his Presidency? That's as likely as Obama switching parties. He'd be fatally politically weakened so as to be forced to take Kennedy as Veep, which RFK would probably refuse as in 1964 IOTL. "I'd sooner quit! (and give RFK the Presidency) I don't want it this much!"- LBJ to O'Donnell, 1964. "The greatest title history can bestow is the title of peacemaker." IIC, RFK wasn't exactly the archetypal Foggy Bottom diplomat.

Not if it were they were kept secret negotiations as intended. Johnson would have enough political leverage to run in 1968, and a wallah.

Hmm, I assumed that it would, at best, take some time for negotiations to go anywhere, even with Kennedy. (Wouldn't this make Nixon's people even more motivated to throw a monkey wrench into the process?)

You could easily entice the North Vietnamese with promises of withdrawal if they leave the South alone (which Johnson had been thinking over late in his term anyway). They'd break it in a few years, but they would break the peace at anypoint anyway. And I'm not sure how much Nixon could really be able to throw a monkey wrench in the process.

 

[RogueBeaver]

Your Majesty, LBJ wasn't thinking rationally about that relationship. Could Johnson use the remaining machinery to steamroller the convention? Yes. An estimate (though I discount them, as they can be radically altered within 5 min) gave LBJ almost two-thirds of the delegates against RFK. Will he lose to Nixon in the general? Likely yes. His domestic program had already gone up in flames, and it was too far gone by '67. Whether or not LBJ does this, there's an excellent chance of RFK becoming POTUS at some point. So all that venom for naught...

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Your Majesty, LBJ wasn't thinking rationally about that relationship. Could Johnson use the remaining machinery to steamroller the convention? Yes. An estimate (though I discount them, as they can be radically altered within 5 min) gave LBJ almost two-thirds of the delegates against RFK. Will he lose to Nixon in the general? Likely yes. His domestic program had already gone up in flames, and it was too far gone by '67. Whether or not LBJ does this, there's an excellent chance of RFK becoming POTUS at some point. So all that venom for naught...

Kennedy likely wouldn't run if Johnson ended Vietnam. Similarly, while the Great Society was suffering because LBJ wanted to fund it and Vietnam and damaged by this point, it's still salvageable.

 

[RogueBeaver]

So LBJ ends Vietnam, but the turning point came in the '66 midterms on domestic policy. Anyways, the two-term rule helps Nixon, and then Watergate might be butterflied, making 1976 somewhat less of a slam-dunk... This would be interesting.

 

[freivolk]

Nobody seems to ask, if a peace treaty was even possible. N. Vietnam wanted total victory and I don´t see that the USA would accept this in 1967.

 

[Emperor Norton I]

Nobody seems to ask, if a peace treaty was even possible. N. Vietnam wanted total victory and I don´t see that the USA would accept this in 1967.

Firstly, it is possible since the North Vietnamese signed a peace treaty in the OTL. The issue is they'd inevitably break it.

Secondly, the US (Johnson) did seriously consider ending the war and withdrawing US forces in the OTL.