WI Stalin refused to leave Iran?
- Thread starter WarBastard
- Start date
Xen
Banned
Probably not, so we would have a divided Iran (remember Britain occupied the southern half).
There are two halfs to Iran the upside and the downside, Stalin got the upside and Darth Helmet got the downisde.
But seriously this would have hurt his standing in the Middle East, and I have my doubts North Iran could survive without heavy Soviet backing. There would be an independent Kurdistan though...
There are two halfs to Iran the upside and the downside, Stalin got the upside and Darth Helmet got the downisde.
But seriously this would have hurt his standing in the Middle East, and I have my doubts North Iran could survive without heavy Soviet backing. There would be an independent Kurdistan though...
WarBastard
Banned
How would it have hurt his standing? I would have thought it would have helped immensely...
Cook
Banned
Given that Mussolini was able to sell himself to the Middle East as the great Protector of Islam while killing Libyans (and being Catholic) I doubt Stalin would have much difficulty with the Arab world as long as he promised to supply the various factions with money, arms and equipment to fight the colonial nations.
The question is would the US step quickly in to help southern Iran? The British were in a severely poor financial position post war and were trying to reduce their defence commitments ‘East of Suez’.
Perhaps Northern Iran would be able to ‘liberate’ the south before the west reacted?
wolf_brother
Banned
If the N. Iranians are able to reunite with their southern brothers we'd see a Cold War where the Soviet Union finally achieves the centuries old Russian dream of having a port into the Indian Ocean. This would have huge implications and butterflies abound.
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Northern Iran becomes the Jangalist Soviet Republic, which is rattached to the USSR.
WarBastard
Banned
Yeah, possibly. I can see some big knock-on effects. Iraq would be affected, and the US would probably be trying much harder early on to get a hold of the ME. UK would be very nervous about India.
He wasn't able to though. He claimed to be the Protector of Islam but no one anywhere took that seriously and in fact his colonization efforts in Libya generated great hostility in the Arab world. In neighboring Tunisia the French noted that Mussolini's actions were generating considerable anti-Italian sentiment.
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
I suppose I can suspect something along the likes of an Islamic counter-revolution if the northern Communist government in north Iran collapses.
British commitments to the Middle East would be stepped up with aid from the United States, and also present problems for Turkey. The Kurds would likely establish as they did historically rebel groups in Turkey and Iraq to split those regions off into their new Republic. In the case of Iraq, this also threatens the Mosul regions, which would be considered vital to Allied interests.
As for Iran, sections of Northern Iran would likely be detached in the West for the formation of the Kurdish People's Republic, and maybe annexations into the Azeri SSR. Basically, the situation develops along a similar path as has occurred between the Two Korea's, though there would not be a war (The Soviet Union would not wish to lose access to the Southern Caspian Resource Zone), and the North would be more economically viable (for the same reason).
The problem here is that the Soviet Union becomes popular among the minorities within the Middle East, whereas due to its support of the said minorities, it alienates itself from the Arab World due to the ongoing conflict in Iraq. At the same time, the Americans are supporting Israel, so nothing develops there. Therefore, they likely join the Third Bloc with India and Yugoslavia (whatever it was called) or develop their own bloc.
As for Iran, sections of Northern Iran would likely be detached in the West for the formation of the Kurdish People's Republic, and maybe annexations into the Azeri SSR. Basically, the situation develops along a similar path as has occurred between the Two Korea's, though there would not be a war (The Soviet Union would not wish to lose access to the Southern Caspian Resource Zone), and the North would be more economically viable (for the same reason).
The problem here is that the Soviet Union becomes popular among the minorities within the Middle East, whereas due to its support of the said minorities, it alienates itself from the Arab World due to the ongoing conflict in Iraq. At the same time, the Americans are supporting Israel, so nothing develops there. Therefore, they likely join the Third Bloc with India and Yugoslavia (whatever it was called) or develop their own bloc.
celt
Banned
In my opinon if Stalin was going to do anything with Northern Iran they would have united Sovet Azerbaijan with Iranian Azerbaijan in to one state and probaly had a independent Kurdistan (or maybe annex it outright to the USSR,don't quote me on that though I'll haven't checked a source)and left any parts left over.But I doubt the West would let him get away with this one unchecked.
Cook
Banned
The anti-Italian sentiment in Tunisia was from French colonials. Mussolini was the principal inspiration of the green shirts in Egypt and the main source of financing for anti-Colonial (Anti-French and anti-British) organisations in Egypt, Palestine and Syria. The Mufti of Jerusalem received large amounts of money from Italy.
No, the French clearly reported massive anti-Italian feeling among the Arabs as well. I assure you I've been reading about this recently and while some groups did work with Italy, Italy's colonization efforts generated great hostility among the general public
It is very likely that the US would have upped the pressure by clearly indicating to Stalin that the US would not accept his seizing more lang and that he would pay a price. Remenber the Soviets were in no condition to fight another war. The US would have also supplied the Turks with lots of modern weapons and aircraft.
Cook
Banned
You’re missing my point though Waldo; various Arab nationalist movements in Egypt, Palestine and Syria emulated Italy’s Black Shirts and were happy to accept Italian money in the 1930s to use against the Colonial powers.
I doubt the Stalin would have had any difficulty finding similar groups willing to accept Soviet assistance as a means to kicking out the British, French and local puppet Monarchies. That they wouldn’t initially have the ‘Arab street’ or the support of the majority would be irrelevant; Communists seldom did.
Alright, perhaps I misunderstood you. It is true of course that some groups cooperated with and even emulated Mussolini. Just the way you said that Mussolini was able to sell himself to the Middle East made it sound as though the support was more widespread