WI "World War II" didn't happen in Europe?

[Lewistern]

So let's say, hypothetically

What if Weimar Republic was actually a stable republic and successfully get rid of radical factions in the nation such as communist and nazis, while Japan remain unchanged

Will the US maintain the global influence we have after the war? Will Japan get their ass handed by the US and Britain far sooner? if yes then would Operation Downfall be greenlighted instead of the US dropping nukes? What would fascism be? Would Mussolini Italy survived past 1940? etc etc.

Im curious about the butterfly effect this will cause, and mostly because I need some ideas for my ATL im going to write

 

[Scerus]

Well, the Japanese only decided on attacking America after Roosevelt imposed his oil embargo - Japan also believed, likely incorrectly, that invading DEI and British possessions in Asia ensured American involvement. Which demonstrates their complete lack of understanding of American domestic politics. Roosevelt introduced the oil embargo because Japan had annexed French Indochina, Roosevelt and his advisers did so because they regarded it as a naked power grab; Japan signing the Tripartite Pact also greatly antagonised American opinion against Japan, regarding it as a provocative act directed against the United States. If France doesn't fall, Japan does not have the impetus for such a wanton overreach.

Though I suppose other potential flashpoints may ignite a conflict. If another Panay Incident on a larger scale occurs or war breaks out between Britain and Japan during the Tientsin Incident where Japan is the aggressor, Roosevelt probably finds his casus belli for economic sanctions and freezing of assets.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Will the US maintain the global influence we have after the war?

A lot less. The Depression damaged the US economy far worse than most other nations & as late as 1938 there was no strong recovery in sight. In 1939 US railroad capacity in use was barely 75% of the 1910 peak. Tariffs and trade restrictions were the thing since the Great War, which hurt the US badly. Its growth and prosperity through 1914 were energized by a global free trade environment and hefty exports. Protectionism & ideas about autarky had reduced that engine of growth to a sputter idle.

The war both revived US industry & trashed that of many nations, leaving the US in its dominating position.

Will Japan get their ass handed by the US and Britain far sooner?

Short answer is yes.

if yes then would Operation Downfall be greenlighted instead of the US dropping nukes?

Without a war in Europe and the nazi pogrom of Jews development of atomic power would be slower, and more likely European nations like France would lead. The US had not much focus on physics until the 1930s & was a bit behind Europe in this.

What would fascism be? Would Mussolini Italy survived past 1940? etc etc.

Facism had taken root in other nations. Spain, Hungary, ect.. had their own versions.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

So let's say, hypothetically

What if Weimar Republic was actually a stable republic and successfully get rid of radical factions in the nation such as communist and nazis, while Japan remain unchanged

Will the US maintain the global influence we have after the war?

There would be no global war, no US mass mobilization, no US military success on four continents (Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania), no US consciousness of vast military power and international responsibility. The US would remain important. It would not be a hegemonic hyperpower.

Will Japan get their ass handed by the US and Britain far sooner?

If there is no war in Europe, then in going to war as OTL, Japan would be challenging the British Empire, the US (if as OTL Japan was convinced that the US would intervene in support of Britain), and probably France, by itself, while deeply entangled in China, and threatened by the USSR. Japan was crazy, but not that crazy. There would be no Pacific War.

if yes then would Operation Downfall be greenlighted...

No Pacific War.

...instead of the US dropping nukes?

The Manhattan Project was launched at the urging of scientists who didn't like the idea of atomic bombs, but were very afraid that Nazi Germany might develop them first. The political leaders provided the enormous budget required because the US was at war, and because they also worried about Nazi Germany. If there is no Nazi Germany and no US war against Nazi Germany, there is no Manhattan Project.

What would fascism be? Would Mussolini Italy survived past 1940? etc etc.

An important on-going political tendency. Mussolini would not provoke a war with any other major power, so he would remain in power, probably till his death around 1955-1960.

Im curious about the butterfly effect this will cause, and mostly because I need some ideas for my ATL im going to write

You mean knock-ons. Butterfly effects are by definition unpredictable, other than different from OTL.

The knock-ons include different defense policies for other powers, especially Britain, France, the UK, and the USSR.

It also changes the diplomatic and military balance in the 1930s.

One obvious knock-on is that Britain and France would not be dependent on Italy to prevent the union of Austria with Germany. Thus they could act more decisively against Italian aggression in Abyssinia. (OTL's policy achieved bad outcomes at both ends. It failed to deter or abort Italy's invasion, and it offended Mussolini enough that Italy became Germany's ally, and of course ceased to oppose Anschluss.) IIRC, the League of Nations issued a futile denunciation of Italy, but it accomplished nothing because Britain and France didn't act. If they do, it might provide the League with a good deal more credibility.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The Manhattan Project was launched at the urging of scientists who didn't like the idea of atomic bombs, but were very afraid that Nazi Germany might develop them first. The political leaders provided the enormous budget required because the US was at war, and because they also worried about Nazi Germany. If there is no Nazi Germany and no US war against Nazi Germany, there is no Manhattan Project.

Definitely no Manhatten Project. However... The news that there was potentially a enegery source is manipulating atoms would have emerged anyway. Physics research was headed that way in France, Germany, USSR, Japan even Italy. In the US the USN obtained a small sum for atomic energy research as early as 1939. Non of they would have been pushed as hard as OTL, and the focus would have been initially on industrial power generation. But, the research was headed there. I suspect energy poor nations like Italy or Japan would have been the most interested. I can't say what sort of timeline there might have been. Two decades to power generation vs one?