Would Asia/the world of the twentieth century have been better off if Japan lost the Russo-Japan War, was stalemated, or deterred from attacking Russia in 1904 or later?
Why so, or why not?
In our world Japan, although regarded as an upstart, and the underdog, won this war, taking northeast Asian spheres of influence in Korea and southern Manchuria from Russia, and even the Russian territory of southern Sakhalin island, after sinking the Russian Pacific Fleet and Baltic Fleet units sent around the world to the Pacific.
Japan won and knew it, despite internal complaints that the wins and rewards, in terms of an indemnity or territory, didn't match what the Japanese people felt they "deserved" or "expected". Russia lost it, although on the ground it inflicted heavy losses on the Japanese, and lost no mainland territory and paid no indemnity.
Japan acted like a winner afterward certainly. It converted its exclusive dominance over Korea at the end of the war first into a protectorate, and then into an annexation in 1910.
Japan was more confident after this and had a spring in its step.
But the outcome was not foreordained. Japan was financially strained and depended on American and British loans. It suffered heavy losses in ground combat. 10 years earlier Russia, with other powers, had used threat of naval force to make Japan disgorge many of its gains from the Sino-Japanese war, and Russia impeded Japan's attempts to grow its influence in Korea for several years before the R-J War.
The Japanese might have been intimidated and deterred from ever starting the war. The Russians might have brought the Triple Intervention crisis of 1895 to war to their own greater advantage at that time. Or Japan's surprise attack might not have succeeded as well as it did, resulting in a stalemate at land or sea, or a successful defense by Russian forces and a repulse of the Japanese - a defensive Russian victory.
Would any of these more Russian-favorable outcomes, from a draw or stalemate, or a standoff with a frozen status quo antebellum without war, to an outright Russian victory, leave Asia or the world a better, happier, place? Would any of them leave the 20th century a better, happier century?
I would love to hear your thoughts. If you feel strongly one way or the other, I'd love to hear it. If you can sort of see arguments both ways, I've no problem with you spelling that out as well. If all you have to say is "it's impossible to know." that is kind of boring and I'm not interested. Consequences of no Japanese victory here? Pros? Cons?
Why so, or why not?
In our world Japan, although regarded as an upstart, and the underdog, won this war, taking northeast Asian spheres of influence in Korea and southern Manchuria from Russia, and even the Russian territory of southern Sakhalin island, after sinking the Russian Pacific Fleet and Baltic Fleet units sent around the world to the Pacific.
Japan won and knew it, despite internal complaints that the wins and rewards, in terms of an indemnity or territory, didn't match what the Japanese people felt they "deserved" or "expected". Russia lost it, although on the ground it inflicted heavy losses on the Japanese, and lost no mainland territory and paid no indemnity.
Japan acted like a winner afterward certainly. It converted its exclusive dominance over Korea at the end of the war first into a protectorate, and then into an annexation in 1910.
Japan was more confident after this and had a spring in its step.
But the outcome was not foreordained. Japan was financially strained and depended on American and British loans. It suffered heavy losses in ground combat. 10 years earlier Russia, with other powers, had used threat of naval force to make Japan disgorge many of its gains from the Sino-Japanese war, and Russia impeded Japan's attempts to grow its influence in Korea for several years before the R-J War.
The Japanese might have been intimidated and deterred from ever starting the war. The Russians might have brought the Triple Intervention crisis of 1895 to war to their own greater advantage at that time. Or Japan's surprise attack might not have succeeded as well as it did, resulting in a stalemate at land or sea, or a successful defense by Russian forces and a repulse of the Japanese - a defensive Russian victory.
Would any of these more Russian-favorable outcomes, from a draw or stalemate, or a standoff with a frozen status quo antebellum without war, to an outright Russian victory, leave Asia or the world a better, happier, place? Would any of them leave the 20th century a better, happier century?
I would love to hear your thoughts. If you feel strongly one way or the other, I'd love to hear it. If you can sort of see arguments both ways, I've no problem with you spelling that out as well. If all you have to say is "it's impossible to know." that is kind of boring and I'm not interested. Consequences of no Japanese victory here? Pros? Cons?
