Lithuania was the last nation in Europe to convert with the last areas doing so officially in 1413 and much of the peasantry still following the old religion. Would it have been possible for Lithuania to not convert at all?
Would it have been possible for Lithuania to stay pagan?
- Thread starter Impossible_Quail_250
- Start date
Not likely... it was rather amazing that Lithuanian paganism lasted as long as it did - particularly as the Lithuanian pagans were a minority within their own country, which had absorbed a huge number of (mostly Orthodox) Christians as subjects.
I think the pressures, both external from being surrounded by Christian neighbours, and internal from their own subjects, would've eventually just become too great...
eventually the Poles, Monastic states, or Muscovy would've gotten crusadey and used it as an excuse to expand. they already tried to otl and it took a lot of luck to last as long as they did
Part of why they stayed Pagan for so long was that they could play Orthodox off Catholic with promises, rather like Khazar Judiasm was diplomatically useful for playing Christian against Muslim. And crusaders always had other pagans, old Prussians and such, to slaughter/Christianize.
Otl, the number of alternative targets declined/nearly run out.
So there is your key. Keep the other Balts in the game longer, until say 1500. Having Moscow's rivals do better leading to a more divided Orthodoxy also helps. Provide a refuge to Jews. More Jews mean more non Christians and allies.
Then you have the printing press. Let the Lithuanian state promote education and how Lithuanian paganism has blessed the state, making the faith popular. Freely take in peasant refugees for Lithuanianization, creating something akin to Lithuanian Cossacks.
1700 or so, enlightenment types are interested in some circles the Pagan Kingdom is popular, leading to its fetization and it's success leads to an earlier decline of Christianity.
Those are my broad strokes, have no idea how to make it happen.
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It could have lasted for longer, but for what. Iirc according to guesstimates (might have been Lowmianski?) the population of ethnic Lithuania shrank in spite of high natural pop growth over the 100 year war with the Teutonic order (1295-1395 pretty much) because of how much of a toll it was taking onto the countryside. By the time Jogaila came to the throne in 1377, few in the Lithuanian nobility and leadership held any illusions that paganism was to last, hence why the conversion to Christianity was accepted with effectively zero resistance.
Really Lithuania could have converted sooner, but well, they needed to gain something out of the conversion, hence it took so long. Lithuanian dukes drew a very clear bargain - with a conversion, they should either have the Order move out of their vicinity, or gain an ally with which they can break Teutonic power. Else they really have no point to convert. The OTL result was the latter, but the former was considered, for example Algirdas offered to move the Order to Ukraine so they can wage crusades on the Tatars (would be a cool AH honestly, lol, even if the Order accepting it is very implausible)
Perhaps if there was no lucrative offer to gain Poland as an ally in 1385, Lithuania could have stayed pagan for a few decades longer, though they'd get into hard times because the Order's attacks were growing intense. They would need to find a conversion partner somewhere though and would start searching hard. Maybe Denmark or Sweden could work, they also have a vested interest in destroying the Order, idk.
By the time you get to, say, the early to mid 15th century, it really depends on how strong Moscow starts getting and whether the changing situation in Europe makes any difference for the Lithuanian Crusade. The Order was as strong as the interest of the European powers to send their restless second and third sons to the East was, once you start getting to the Hussite and Italian Wars, and hell even the Reformation and the Americas at some point, all of which would draw away European attention, then maybe the conflict would die down and Lithuania can just stay around pagan? But then it'd be pretty frikkin barren and might have just gone Orthodox to appease their growing Orthodox convert nobility at that point.