A swift Republican victory in the Spanish Civil War?

[Vinization]

The right-wing coup that kicked off the Spanish Civil War was actually a huge failure for the conspirators, at least at first. Although they took nearly all of the north, important cities like Oviedo, Seville and Córdoba, as well as the colonies (where their best military force, the Army of Africa, was located), most of the country stayed loyal to the Republican government, and it wasn't until Franco was airlifted out of Morocco by German planes that the situation really turned around for the rebels.

A map of Spain immediately after the July coup.

One of the reasons the Nationalists didn't do even worse in the aftermath of the coup was the Republican government's initial hesitation to the proposal of arming the unions and workers' militias, which was almost certainly critical to the rebels' initial successes in some of the cities they captured since they were leftist strongholds in general, especially Seville.

So what if the Spanish Republicans, instead of going through three prime ministers in a single day (Santiago Casares Quiroga, Diego Martínez Barrio and José Giral, who finally gave the order to arm the unions), was led by someone like Indalecio Prieto, a moderate socialist who supported the aforementioned order as an immediate response to the coup?

Would it be enough for the government to retain control of Oviedo, Seville, Granada and La Coruña, all of them places that the Nationalists had trouble taking? Assuming it was and the Republicans had an even stronger position in the immediate aftermath of the coup, would Hitler and Mussolini even bother airlifting the Army of Africa into Europe?

Would the Popular Front enact its policies (wage increases, social programs, land reform, your typical left-of-center agenda) without much trouble if the rebels are quickly defeated, or would the anarchists and left-wing socialists (led by Francisco Largo Caballero, a bitter adversary of Prieto in the PSOE who was known as the "Spanish Lenin") stir up trouble? I assume the Communist Party would be irrelevant since the war would end too soon for the Soviet Union to get involved.

Finally, assuming WWII happens and develops on schedule with minimal butterflies, would the Nazis leave the Spanish Republic alone, or would they invade it in prior to Operation Barbarossa, out of fear that it could be a dagger pointed at their back while they're busy fighting the Soviets? Alternatively, could the Republic's survival somehow convince France's higher ups to fight on to the bitter end, inflicting additional losses to the Nazis in the process?​

 

[Salvador79]

Interesting Idea!
No clue how plausible a quick collapse is. Even with a few less towns, wouldn't the putschists still control too much to expect them to throw up their hands?

Also, no idea on France, but Hitler would indeed want to invade Spain, which he could easily pull off, but it would cost precious resources and numbers.

 

[Vinization]

Interesting Idea!
No clue how plausible a quick collapse is. Even with a few less towns, wouldn't the putschists still control too much to expect them to throw up their hands?

Also, no idea on France, but Hitler would indeed want to invade Spain, which he could easily pull off, but it would cost precious resources and numbers.

I assume they'd fight on for a few months before finally surrendering in either late 1936 or early 1937, especially if the Army of Africa stays in Morocco.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a Nazi invasion of Spain turned into Peninsular War 2: Electric Boogaloo, since they'd probably alienate their potential conservative allies by behaving like, well, Nazis, while the socialists and especially the anarchists would fight with everything they had. The fact the country's terrain is full of mountains, especially in the north, wouldn't help either.​

 

[The Galaxy]

There might be an even "quicker" victory by avoiding the whole civil war at all.

"The government of the Second Republic, led by Santiago Casares Quiroga, gathered for its customary Friday Cabinet meeting on July 10, 1936. Bernardo Giner de los Ríos, the minister of communication, handed the prime minister a dossier with extensive documentation of conversations that the police had intercepted between several senior members of the army discussing plans to overthrow the government. The military uprising, Casares told his increasingly puzzled ministers, could take place at any moment. He added that President Manuel Azaña and he had been following the conspiracy for some time, and that there were now only two options: to abort the planned uprising by arresting all those involved; or wait until the military acted, and use the rising as an excuse to end once and for all the constant threat that the military had posed since the Second Republic was declared in 1931. It was decided to take the second option."

How the Republican government could have prevented the Civil War

On July 17, 1936, senior officers launched a military uprising. The government had known about the plot, but by the time it reacted, the rebels controlled half the country and a revolution was underway

english.elpais.com

So just do that, arrest the leaders and avoid the civil war.



If the civil war is avoided or is won quickly by the republicans, then in either case, I do not know if they would have done some, all or any of their policies, though if they did land reform, which was a popular idea they would have almost a guaranteed re election during the next elections because there were only about 8,000 land owners in Spain and millions of landless peasants who operated close to the same way they had as in the medieval times.


If the civil war is avoided, it opens up for some interesting alternatives for the government during ww2, for example selling arms to the French, and if the Germans win against the French then perhaps selling arms to the Germans.

If there is no civil war or it is quickly won, there is a chance that Undamaged or relatively undamaged Spain sends volunteers to France, if these volunteers are deployed with the troops that went to Belgium then these troops might also get trapped, however if the troops are deployed in front of the Ardennes forest, then that might change the whole war.

If there is no civil war at all, then there chance that the anarchists create problems and try to separate are much lower, and a small short civil war will probably not change that.



If France is defeated then there is a chance Hitler will not invade, because it would be difficult and time consuming, it would require delaying Barbarossa for one year if not more. Crossing the mountains between France and Spain would be hard, which leaves only the far west and east of the mountains, both areas can be defended quite well, since there are only areas a few kilometers wide, down to roads going through, so an invasion would practically require a sea and or air invasion.

The Royal Navy and an undamaged Spanish Navy can most likely fight off any invasion that would be attempted.

The geography of Spain would also allow allied forces to be built up in Spain.

An interesting addition would be if Spain does land reform, and that land refom becomes extremly popular that it allows Spain to merge / take over Portugal and do the same type of land reform there, declaring an Iberian nation, and then for added points do the same across all of South America and become a huge country, bringing land reform, democracy and equal rights for all.

 

[Vinization]

An interesting addition would be if Spain does land reform, and that land refom becomes extremly popular that it allows Spain to merge / take over Portugal and do the same type of land reform there, declaring an Iberian nation, and then for added points do the same across all of South America and become a huge country, bringing land reform, democracy and equal rights for all.

Er, what? Spain's too poor at this point to engage in foreign adventures, never mind conquering an entire continent.

 

[The Galaxy]

Er, what? Spain's too poor at this point to engage in foreign adventures, never mind conquering an entire continent.

It all depends.

If you have 80-90% of the population then many things are possible.

For example lets say that Spain has a successful land reform.

The peasants in Portugal will want the same, the few thousand land owners will not, Spain can then take over all of Portugal or maybe area after area doing land reform there, the land owners have no power to stop them because the soldiers all have a family member or know someone who has become a land owner or will soon become one and will not fight to take away their brothers or sisters or mothers or fathers land to give it to some former land owner. So the land owners have no way to stop it because those with the guns are against them. The same can be done in South America, with not physical way of stopping it.

If done properly and smartly, one can unite Iberia and South America into a huge country, with land reform, equal rights and democracy.

The party that brings land reform will have almost guaranteed election victories for one generation because the huge majority of the people will be greatful for giving them land.

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

Also, no idea on France, but Hitler would indeed want to invade Spain, which he could easily pull off, but it would cost precious resources and numbers.

I doubt it would be easy, the country is made for guerilla fighting, there's one mountainous border to invade through. Navaly I'm not sure how good Italy was at naval landings, but I think Britain would be able to more easily reinforce Spain with the Royal Navy, and if France choses to fight on they'd have a place to retreat to.

 

[Vinization]

I doubt it would be easy, the country is made for guerilla fighting, there's one mountainous border to invade through. Navaly I'm not sure how good Italy was at naval landings, but I think Britain would be able to more easily reinforce Spain with the Royal Navy, and if France choses to fight on they'd have a place to retreat to.

I think the French government would flee to Algiers since the Germans can't reach them there, which isn't the case if they go to Spain.

 

[Vinization]

Could the militias be incorporated into the regular army after things settle down somewhat?

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

I think the French government would flee to Algiers since the Germans can't reach them there, which isn't the case if they go to Spain.

Well the government would flee to Algeria, but if Hitler chose to invade Spain as well, the army could set up on the other side of the Pyrenees. Try driving tanks through a mountain range.

 

[Jonah Carter]

The French government wouldn't flee to Spain, but a lot of individual French people would, especially any French army units near the border that don't like the idea of surrendering.

I assume that land reform would be the #1 priority, especially after a revolt that would be backed by those huge landowners. That alone would give a major boost to the economy and ensure the reelection of the Popular Front. Any uprising, even one that's crushed quickly, strengthens the hand of radical forces. The anticlerical violence can't be put back in the bottle, but I think the more moderate forces will try to keep things like factory seizures to a minimum. The radicals, OTOH, know a good opportunity when they see it. The late 1930s are going to be very unstable for Spain, but I think the moderate left wins out pretty convincingly with the people.

 

[Salvador79]

I assume they'd fight on for a few months before finally surrendering in either late 1936 or early 1937, especially if the Army of Africa stays in Morocco.
​

OK, that makes sense. Or @The Galaxy 's proposal of just apprehending the conspirers goes through. Both sound fine.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if a Nazi invasion of Spain turned into Peninsular War 2: Electric Boogaloo, since they'd probably alienate their potential conservative allies by behaving like, well, Nazis, while the socialists and especially the anarchists would fight with everything they had. The fact the country's terrain is full of mountains, especially in the north, wouldn't help either.​

I doubt it would be easy, the country is made for guerilla fighting, there's one mountainous border to invade through. Navaly I'm not sure how good Italy was at naval landings, but I think Britain would be able to more easily reinforce Spain with the Royal Navy, and if France choses to fight on they'd have a place to retreat to.

Well, yes, the geography is good, but Spain's fighting forces would not be. Yugoslavia is, likewise, a place well-suited for partisan fighting, yet the Nazis established control over it to a degree which sufficed for them. The thing is, if Hitler doesn't go for Spain in this scenario, then, as has been pointed out before, his Western flank isn't at all secure. Or would he attempt to secure the Pyrenees himself - if they're such a formidable barrier, then that goes both ways...?!

But maybe we're not exhausting the possibilities of plausible divergences here. Wouldn't a successsful Left in Spain possibly prolong the durability of the similar Popular Front government of Leon Blum in France? If it's not Daladier but Blum, would he sign off on the Sudetenland, too, or would the Munich Conference happen at all?

 

[Vinization]

Well the government would flee to Algeria, but if Hitler chose to invade Spain as well, the army could set up on the other side of the Pyrenees. Try driving tanks through a mountain range.

Driving tanks through the Pyrenees may be hard, but it'd be a lot easier with the Luftwaffe softening up your targets with impunity beforehand.

The French government wouldn't flee to Spain, but a lot of individual French people would, especially any French army units near the border that don't like the idea of surrendering.

I wonder if Walter Benjamin would survive ITTL? IOTL he was detained by the (Francoist) Spanish border police and killed himself because of the possibility of being deported back to Nazi Germany.

A republican Spain would be much more sympathetic to someone like him, and it'd be interesting to see how he reacts to things such as the Cold War or May 1968 (with the appropriate butterflies, of course).

 

[Nenshou Yuuki]

Well how far did Germany get into France before it caved? Logistically they'd be pushing it if they had to go all the way to the Pyrenees, and then have to go through them and invade Spain, a country without great infrastructure, their supply lines would probably be pushed to breaking point.

 

[Bougnas]

Well how far did Germany get into France before it caved? Logistically they'd be pushing it if they had to go all the way to the Pyrenees, and then have to go through them and invade Spain, a country without great infrastructure, their supply lines would probably be pushed to breaking point.

Roughly mid-France but if the situation in Spain made the French government more eager to withdraw there early on, then the baroud d'honneur at the Somme doesn't happen and the French army goes on a fighting retreat instead of disintegrating or there is no disintegration to Pétain's call on June 17th, so the Germans will progress more slowly.

In any case taking the rest of France would have required several weeks, about late August.

And if the French army (and yet another BEF) is behind the Pyrénées with the Spaniards the Germans won't be able to break through period.

But that requires Spain being in the war.

 

[Victor Hatherley]

There was an TL on here years ago about the Spanish Civil War never happening which amusingly featured Franco going down in history as a hero of the republic for leading a last stand against invading nazis in Zaragoza.

No Spanish Civil War in 1936 (my new Timeline)

This is my oldest AH Project: a Timeline where the Spanish Civil War never happened and the weak Spanish democracy somehow managed to survive and did not become a fascist or communist dictature. This is tough, and bordering implausibility, but doable. Three years ago, I wrote a Timeline in...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[GeographyDude]

If there is no civil war or it is quickly won, there is a chance that Undamaged or relatively undamaged Spain sends volunteers to France, if these volunteers are deployed with the troops that went to Belgium then these troops might also get trapped, however if the troops are deployed in front of the Ardennes forest, then that might change the whole war.

Especially since the Nazis going through the Ardennes forest worked surprisingly well for the Nazis. It was an outlier event. It should not have worked that well, but it did.

The Fall of France | Air & Space Forces Magazine

Miscalculations led the superior force to a stunning defeat in less than six weeks.

www.airforcemag.com

On the French side, requests for air support were quote— “delayed by the sluggish chain of command.”

And also, I guess the Nazis showed that fortune favors the bold. Or at this particular level of tech, advantage to the offense.